Electrics Hybrids and Plug-ins

A useful resource for those who follow the market and technology:
InsideEVs

Today's news is real time reportage of November sales.  Good economic data to follow.

As I upgrade the blog format I'll add this to the sidebar.  Feel free to add suggestions for other links in the comments.

Location Discriminatory Mortgages Redux

First what I wrote. OMG more than 8 years ago:

Tuesday, July 06, 2004
 Location Discriminatory Mortgages
I once thought "Location Efficient Mortgages" (LEMs could address the problem of exurban development patterns (e.g. living in Riverside and working in LA) but then my brain started working again. I call location efficient mortgages transit apartheid. "Location efficient mortgage" is like "smart growth." Who would want a location -inefficient- mortgage or who would support dumb growth. Meaningless catch phrases, nothing more. Location Discriminatory Mortgages are the exactly descriptive phrase. Funny how the old VA loan policies that inadvertently used to favor new suburban housing, and jumpstarted the exurban nation trend, were struck down as unfair by the very same people advocating this new version of redlining. (Red Line as in Los Angeles and Boston, etc.) I'm surprised at the willingness of people who claim to want fairness to resort to unequal treatment (LEMs, density bonuses, transit subsidies, tax breaks) as a first step when they agree with the agenda. I'm also concerned about the unintended consequences that always appear. We both know that govt with good intentions ALWAYS results in unanticipated problems. In the case of LEMs; people will buy near transit, use more transit, pay less taxes to local govt and eventually get cars. Result, normal traffic overloading local roads while burdened by higher transit subsidies. In case you haven't noticed I'm describing LEMs in terms of transit but we were talking about POV commute patterns and Prop 13. That's because of two things. First LEMs have been hijacked by transit advocates despite there being no connection. Second, lenders already do a little of this when you apply for a mortgage. They take into account your living costs including travel budgets when determining lending limits.

Now what the New york Times (of course) is pushing:

Factoring in Commuting Costs

MORTGAGE lenders do not figure in a household’s likely commuting costs when weighing loan applications, but a recent study suggests that borrowers of moderate means would be smart to calculate these costs themselves before buying.

The study, published in October by the Center for Housing Policy and the Center for Neighborhood Technology, looked at transportation and housing costs in the 25 largest metropolitan areas. It found that transportation costs rose faster than incomes in every area over the last decade.

That has added to the financial burden shouldered by moderate-income homeowners, defined as households earning 50 to 100 percent of a metropolitan area’s median income. Transportation consumes 30 percent of their income, on average. Add housing costs to that and the combined cost burden rises to 72 percent.
...
The study also found that some metropolitan areas generally considered more affordable than New York become less so after transportation is figured in. For example in Houston, where housing development is more sprawling, transportation consumes 32 percent of income, compared with 22 percent in New York, which has a more robust transit system.
...
Scott Bernstein, the president of the Center for Neighborhood Technology in Chicago, argues that transportation costs are quantifiable enough that they ought to be factored into underwriting. And they were, during the first half of the last decade, in an experiment the center conducted jointly with Fannie Mae. Called a “Location-Efficient Mortgage,” the product was a contrasting proposition to the “drive till you qualify” strategy of finding an affordable home. The mortgage compensated borrowers applying to buy in areas with lots of transportation choices, and close to jobs and amenities.
...
Tested in a handful of markets before 2007, the mortgages were issued to about 2,000 borrowers and, based on the center’s evaluation of a representative sample, showed a very low default rate. But the experiment ended with the mortgage market collapse.
...
The national calculator could be ready by year’s end. Another calculator developed by the center, called Abogo (abogo.cnt.org), lets people plug in an address and find out what a typical household in that area spends on transportation.

-----

Unfuggingbelievable. Let's start at the top and tackle other bits in later posts. "For example in Houston, where housing development is more sprawling, transportation consumes 32 percent of income, compared with 22 percent in New York, which has a more robust transit system." Texas income tax 0%. New York State 6.85%, New York City ~3%. Idiots with calculators and agendas are dangerous.

Big Bad Choo-Choo

The voice of people in the path of progress:

"In this case - forgive me - we don't really care what goes on statewide. We're very concerned about what's happening in our county, and what's happening in our county is very real and it's happening every day," said Anja Raudabaugh, executive director of the Madera County Farm Bureau, one of the parties to the lawsuit. "My guys can't get operating loans to plant trees next year. My guys can't get operating loans to buy equipment for expanding their operations because they're in the footprint of the alignment."

Judges Backs HSR Over Farmers

-----

The fix is in.  There's nothing going to stop this dumb idea from riding the state into bankruptcy.  Not that it won't go "tango uniform" regardless but this will get us there faster.  

RThe fix ead more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/11/16/4990620/calif-high-speed-rail-faces-crucial.html#storylink=cpy

Craigslist Laugh of the Day

2008 TOYOTA PRIUS, NO MONEY DOWN, TAKE OVER MY PAYMENTS - $1 (Thousand Oaks)
Date: 2010-02-24, 10:57AM PST

I have a 2008 Toyota Prius that is the top of the line version, loaded with leather seats, nav, premium Bose 6 disc CD stereo/speaker system.
It is white, and is in pristine condition.
Has 21,400 miles currently.
My wife and I are having our 2nd baby soon, and the Prius is just too small for us now, and we don't drive enough to get the savings on the gas.
So we want to have someone take over the loan and payments on the car.
This is a great deal for someone who doesn't want to put a bunch of money down, and get a great car with low mileage.
The car has always been serviced at Toyota of Thousand Oaks, where it was purchased, and there have been no problems.
It was just serviced and they did check the gas pedal just in case last week.
Clean title and no accidents, of course.
Payments are $607.11 per month including tax, and the loan has 53 months left.
----

$607.11 x 53 = $32,176.83

Brand new '10 Prius? 3-12 thousand dollars cheaper. Pathetic.

Wendell Cox Takes (on) the Train

Extended excerpt because WSJ pulls articles too fast:

The administration is giving California $2.25 billion for trains that are expected to reach 220 miles per hour between Los Angeles and San Francisco. The cost of building this rail line is now estimated by the California High Speed Rail Authority to be more than $40 billion and could be $60 billion or more.

Even after adjusting for inflation, the projected cost of the system has increased by half over the original cost in the past decade. Ridership projections have also fluctuated wildly, from as low as 32 million annually to nearly 100 million; now the rail authority estimates the train will carry 41 million passengers each year.

High-speed rail does little to unsnarl traffic jams because most highway congestion is within urban areas, not between them. It also has negligible impact on airport congestion. The world's strongest high-speed rail market, Tokyo to Osaka, is also one of the world's largest airline markets. Even with high-speed rail, there is still frequent air-shuttle service between Paris and Marseille.

Environmental claims are misleading. Using California High Speed Rail Authority's data, Joe Vranich and I estimated that the California system would reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, at a cost of $2,000 per ton. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that we should be able to meet its greenhouse gas targets by spending $50 or less per ton.

The Little Choo-Choo That Couldn't

California High Speed Rail died recently and no one noticed. The CAHSR authority finally made the first of a long series of confessions that the service will be less and price higher than was sold to the voters 18 months ago in a narrow bond approval vote.

The new plan calls for a one-way charge of $105, about 83 percent of the $125 the rail authority predicts airfares will run in 2035. That near-doubling of prospective fares from the 2008 $55 would reduce expected ridership by almost one-third.

Prices up, ridership down. Quelle surprise.

But don't be discouraged. There's a new blog out there where CAHSR is not only alive but so perfect only apostates can dare deny its beauty: CAHSRblog.com

If it weren't my money the whole debacle would be sad. As it is it is a travesty.

The updated cost estimate for the San Francisco‐to‐Anaheim initial high‐speed rail system is $42.6 billion [pdf file] in year‐of‐expenditure dollars.

State funding: $9 billion from Proposition 1A (used to leverage additional investment)
Federal funding: $17‐19 billion (ARRA, other federal loan programs, transportation appropriations)
Local funding: $4‐5 billion (in right‐of‐way, parking fees, transit‐oriented developments, contributions)
Private funding: $10‐12 billion (public‐private partnerships, vendor financing, availability payments, etc.)
Total: $45 billion

Not. Fed funding will never exceed the $9b State contribution and private funding to date has been zero. There's no reason for private interests to fund HSR. It has no commercial value. And the "local funding" is just a joke. Bakersfield is not going to invoke Eminient Domain to cover CAHSRs accounting ass.

Better Than HSR

More pictures and a fun little website touting the future of air travel at Aeroscraft.

Quick write up at SonyRadio. Excerpt:

It's the Aero craft, and when it's completed, it will ferry pampered passengers across continents and oceans as they stroll leisurely about the one-acre cabin or relax in their staterooms Unlike its dirigible ancestors, the Aero craft is not lighter than air It's 14 million cubic feet of helium hoist only two-thirds of the craft's weight. The rigid and surprisingly aerodynamic body, driven by huge rear-ward propellers, generates enough additional lift to keep the behemoth and its 400-ton payload aloft while cruising During takeoff and landing, six turbo-fan jet engines push the ship up or ease its descent. This two-football-fields-long airship is the brainchild of Igor Pasternak, whose privately funded California firm, Worldwide Aeros Corporation, is in the early stages of developing a prototype and expects to have one completed by 2010 .

Pasternak says several cruise ship companies have expressed interest in the project, and for good reason - the craft would have a range of several thousand miles, and, wit h an estimated top speed of 174 mph, could traverse the continental United States in about 18 hours. During the flight, passengers would view national landmarks just 8,000 feet below, or, if they weren't captivated by the view, the cavernous interior would easily accommodate such amenities as luxury staterooms, restaurants - - even a casino.

To minimize noise, the aft-mounted propellers will be electric, powered by a renewable source such as hydrogen fuel cells.

What do I think?:

Valuable $250 Coupon Inside!

2010 Audi R8 5.2 Coupe -
Date: 2009-10-23, 5:50PM PDT
Bodystyle: 2 door Coupe
Engine: 5.2L V-10cyl
Ext. Color: Phantom Black
Int. Color: Ebony Stock
Number: AX00029
VIN: WUAANAFGXAN000210
Model Code: 42352B

Print out this page for a $250 discount at dealer. Vehicle service history and Car Fax available.

LOL! $250! Asking price? $168,650.
Craigslist ad here.

Gas Up Diesel Down

SACRAMENTO, Calif.--(Business Wire)--
Betty T. Yee, Chairwoman of the Board of Equalization (BOE), today released
gasoline and diesel consumption figures for July 2009.California gasoline demand
rose by 2.2 percent in July compared to the same month of the previous year.
Demand for on-road diesel fell a substantial 11.2 percent in July from the same
period in 2008.

Up 2.2% is okay but diesel off 11.2% is a flashing danger sign for the economy.

Density Fantasies

Reburbia

Hey! there's an idea! Replace the greensward with 9 foot wide 2 plus story office space, delete 1/3rd of the parking and bingo. Urban renewal.

BART has a cow

2007 NTD Program data for BART. [small pdf]

360,000 average weekday BART riders. The highest plausible number
that use the transbay (no hyphen apparently) tube is 50%. So 180,000
BART tubers and 480,000 bridge crossers. That's daily. BART looks
much better with the peak period data. Peak hour bridge is 2300 vph.
That is the equivilant of full trains on almost exactly a two minute
schedule. Tight but possible. Of course there is a problem. Run
that schedule two hours in the morning and two at night and you've
already used up your transbay 180,000 ridership totals.

BART thru the transbay tube carries the daily equivilant two lanes of
traffic but more importantly the equivilant of three lanes at the
critical weekday peak periods.

And at what cost? $360 million annual subsidy. Yep, a $1000/rider.
----
Still the employees want more money. Fine, a $10 surcharge per trip should cover it.

• Public against the strike. SFGate.

• Offical BART strike page.

Boeing Boeing Bong

Wagga is right. too funny.

Overflow Parking

This is the Camarillo airport. They've run out of space at the Port of Hueneme. And the South Oxnard processing facilities are full and the leased space at the closed industrial parks nearby so now they are filling up the tarmac in Camarillo.

The future is brand new 2009 BMWs sold in 2012.

1.5 Automakers or Less

WSJ:
DETROIT -- U.S. vehicle sales turned out even worse than expected in April, muting optimism that the auto market is poised to rebound.

Auto makers blamed the high-profile troubles at General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC for dragging down sales last month across the industry. Chrysler sought bankruptcy protection on Thursday.

"We've been fighting all these rumors left and right and it doesn't help," GM sales chief Mark LaNeve said. "I thought we were going to close much better than we did."


Shaky consumer confidence and high unemployment levels also offset benefits of increased credit availability, deep auto discounts and U.S. government backing of warranties on GM and Chrysler vehicles.

April sales totaled 819,540 cars and light trucks, a decline of 34% from a year earlier, according to market research firm Autodata Corp. The seasonally adjusted, annualized sales pace was 9.32 million vehicles, down from March's 9.86 million rate.

Actually I expect 30-40 automakers in 5 or so years. A new golden age of rolling innovation.

A Lotta Lots

Seems there's a bubble in auto dealerships according to CoStar

According to the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), approximately 900 dealerships closed and 200 dealerships opened in 2008, for a net loss of 700 dealerships, leaving the country with approximately 20,000 franchised auto dealers. According to Detroit-based research and advisory firm, Urban Science, 2008's decline in auto dealership count is the largest the firm has recorded since it started collecting data in 1991. For 2009, the NADA forecasts a net loss of 900 additional dealerships.

I'll take the over on that 900.

Considering the NADA's estimate that 900 dealerships could close in 2009, this translates into another 13 million to 16 million square feet of buildings and 3,600 to 4,500 acres of land becoming vacant.

Breuer added that the industry is over-saturated with domestic brands (approximately 70% of the 20,000 dealerships are domestic brands), so even if the "Big Three" pull through, there will inevitably be a high level domestic dealership closures. At most risk are dealerships selling only one brand of domestic cars. Of dealership closures last year, 66% were single-brand, and according to Urban Science, about 80% were domestic-brand.

The municipal sales tax revenue declines for some local governments is going to definitely trigger defaults.

What the Heck is a TEU?

TEU = Twenty-foot equivalent units, a standardized maritime industry measurement used when counting cargo containers of varying lengths.

The Port of LA has the February data. The LATimes reports as well.

Needless to say the results are catastrophic. No milder word will do. Down 35.30% from Feb 2008 which was already off the peak. The reasons they cite:

• Continued worldwide economic crisis contributing to a decline in trade volumes.
• Consumer sales are down due to high unemployment rates.
• 15 less vessel calls this February due to this decline and the consolidation of services in order to fill up the existing services.
• Chinese factories closed for an extended periods of time (beyond the normal time period) for Chinese New Year.
• Due to the lack of volume and Chinese New Year, Maersk 6700 TEU/week vessel did not make any calls in LA during the month of February (which is traditionally a low volume month).
• Anticipate this year’s volumes will continue to be below last year’s volumes because sales are still slow with most economists predicting there will not be any recovery before the second half of the year.

The fabled "second half recovery."

A recent converstion

Rob_Dawg
we don't bite but I've been known to say bad things about Portland. You gonna use any stimpak to expand MAX?

otishertz
dawg are you anti max?

StewPDX
Rob: It would be a decent use of the money I believe. Not that I'm pro-stim.

StewPDX
But I don't know the answer to your question. I read national and foreign news, wife reads the local. We both accuse the other of knowing nothing on a regular basis.

Rob_Dawg
I am very much antiMAX not for what it is but for how it is portrayed

StewPDX
How it is portrayed?

SomeArmchairEconomist
i know a guy who owned a game store in portland...he had to close it because the construction took so long he lost too many customers

SomeArmchairEconomist
its portrayed as a folly by a city that's a bit too granola for its own good

Rob_Dawg
MAX is not as successful as is claimed in either congestion , urban sprawl or cost.

SomeArmchairEconomist
(incidentally I hear great things about portland and wouldn't mind living there)

StewPDX
I rode it for a solid 2+ years, and thought it was great. Always on time, clean, well managed.

otishertz
the trains in town are the best thing going. i use them all the time

StewPDX
I only wish it went more places. The good news is they do expand it, regulary. Seattle needs lightrail like ours in the worst possible way.

Rob_Dawg
would you use them if you paid anywhere near what they cost to run?

StewPDX
Rob: I'm not sure. What would a ride be? $5?

otishertz
just gotta watch out for the crazy disaffected types

SomeArmchairEconomist
would you use the roads if that were the case?

SomeArmchairEconomist
freeways?

StewPDX
SAE: If that question is directed at me I don't understand it?

SomeArmchairEconomist
sorry stew, that was a riposte to dawg...i disagree with that argument against money losing transit

Rob_Dawg
A little under $4 yes but for every ride, no passes, no Fareless Square

StewPDX
Rob: At $4/ride I would use it for long trips but not short, which is how I usually use it. At $5+ I'd bitch hard if I did, and might now.

StewPDX
er, might not.

SomeArmchairEconomist
if it went more places and you didnt need a car...seems like it could be a good deal

Rob_Dawg
Here's the MAX 2007 data in pdf form:
http://204.68.195.57/ntdprogram/pubs/top_profiles/2007/agency_profiles/0008.pdf

StewPDX
long trips = my usual on max (I was not clear).

SomeArmchairEconomist
$0.40/mile...cheaper than a cab!

otishertz
the trains should be subsidized. it is a better mode of transportation for the environment and your spirit. people smile at eachother, help others, get up for old ad mommies, comment, READ.

Rob_Dawg
MAX fares cover 23% of operating costs

SomeArmchairEconomist
that's a pretty hefty subsidy

Rob_Dawg
how much would the cab ride cost if the company got free cabs and fares were 25% of operating costs?

otishertz
you can take your bike on the trains (and buses) going uphill and roll down

RayOnTheFarm
nice writeup about AIG at econbrowser

StewPDX
I gladly pay tax dollars to subsidize that. The majority of people I see on mass transit can use the help with the fare costs - I don't feel used.

Rob_Dawg
otis, what makes you think light rail is energy efficient?

otishertz
i see well dressed people on the streetcar. it is packed during rush hour

otishertz
l8r ray

Rob_Dawg
otis, look at the pdf. The average streetcar carries 28 people. 20% of capacity about the same as an auto.

SomeArmchairEconomist
not seeing where you get that number

otishertz
what makes me think it is energy efficient is me looking at a car, figuring it has 160 horsepower, is filled with plastic and oil, weighs two tons, and took a lot of energy to make. then i look at the people on the trollies and see they only have one or two bags. all that car to carry one person and their bag seems like a lot

SomeArmchairEconomist
a lot of energy goes into construction of the system

otishertz
true, but the tracks remain for long periods of time

otishertz
generations

Rob_Dawg
divide passenger miles by vehicle miles to get occupancy.

SomeArmchairEconomist
ah

SomeArmchairEconomist
it really takes 28 times as much energy to move the train than a car?

SomeArmchairEconomist
i guess the question is, does it weigh 28 times as much as a car

Rob_Dawg
Light Rail and POVs use about the same amount of energy per passenger mile. I know that seems hard to believe but true.

SomeArmchairEconomist
(assuming they reach the same speed)

otishertz
28 people per train has to be like 20 less cars per train

SomeArmchairEconomist
haha you think people carpool

otishertz
well, if they are equal then i am for more trains

SomeArmchairEconomist
yeah, if you have more trains then you should get more riders, no? biggest argument against transit is always it doesn't go where you want

otishertz
we must change the car world

SomeArmchairEconomist
LA is really screwed on transit...no body rides it because it sucks, and it sucks because nobody rides it and they're in their cars, causing traffic that makes transit suck!

Napolean
Public transit in southern california is a roving insane asylum

Napolean
that is why so few use it

SomeArmchairEconomist
haha

otishertz
between trains and buses you can get nearly anywhere you need to be. i can get to my office on three different routes within an two block area. that means with triptracker on blackberry i more orless have a ride waiting all the time

otishertz
i could always drive, but why?

Napolean
plus it rarely goes anywhere near where you want it to.

otishertz
its not as if the train money spent is less useful than money spent on stadiums and such BS

SomeArmchairEconomist
i feel ya otishertz...i usually take the bus everyday

Rob_Dawg
TEDB 27 http://cta.ornl.gov/data/download27.shtml for anyone interested in modal energy intensities.

StewPDX
Don't get me started on the f*king stadiums.

Rob_Dawg
LA has a higher transit share than Portland

SomeArmchairEconomist
thanks dawg

otishertz
when snowmageddon 2008 happened i had alternate routes when certain roads closed down
i did not want to be driving in that
hell, my truck was snowed in

Rob_Dawg
Oh and LA the land of sprawl is denser and getting denser while Portland is not.

Rob_Dawg
Oh, and light rail uses the same amount of energy per passenger mile while travelling at half the speed of POVs

SomeArmchairEconomist
someone doens't care much for light rail

SomeArmchairEconomist
how do buses rate?

otishertz
shouldn't commercial be closer to financial

Rob_Dawg
Buses are a smarter idea than LR. Lower buy in cost, more flexible, serves a necessary social function. Still expensive but so aren't cops and clean water.

SomeArmchairEconomist
are there casual carpools in LA?

Rob_Dawg
Casual? I don't know. I wouldn't do it.

otishertz
what are the costs of drunk drivers, car accidents. sprawl. how many resources are diverted to pay for car insurance, car repairs, gas, fees. what of the loss of freedom you accept when stopped in a vehicle by police, depreciation. what about all that asphault on the ground, bridge maintenace, traffic enforcement. i just do not see trains as being more expensive when you consider all the...

otishertz
...support apparatus the car world requires.

SomeArmchairEconomist
trains also have the advantage of shifting the pollution
assuming they're not diesel electric that is

Rob_Dawg
Otis, now you are entering rougher waters. Externalities are slippery critters. A POV centric transport network has positive externalities as well as the negative. Care to wait for a transit ambulance? Thing is POVs more than pay for themselves while we can't even get transit users to pay half the operating costs.

SomeArmchairEconomist
gas taxes pay for all of the road maintenance?

SomeArmchairEconomist
they need to start doing some maintaining!

Rob_Dawg
If you have to shift pollution then that is a profoundly anti-urban characteristic and a hit to claims of sustainablity.
Okay another huge multi hundred megabyte web location. This time the HM and HF series from the FHWA
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/index.cfm

SomeArmchairEconomist
holy data overload batman

SomeArmchairEconomist
how much does the IRS let you deduct for car mileage? something around $0.48?

Rob_Dawg
Hey, you guys beginning to get a suspicion that I've got my facts all lined up and I've heard all these questions and claims before?

SomeArmchairEconomist
no i just figured you googled really quickly

otishertz
well since no one has a personal train i think the comparison, while illuminating, is not a direct one. trains are a community wide thing and the cost of a train is the cost to the community while the cost of a coar is one born by individuals. so, you have to consider the cost to the communities of the car world. also, i wuld hope that ambulances could find room on the roads that are already...

otishertz
...there.

Rob_Dawg
2008 IRS 50.5¢ per mile

SomeArmchairEconomist
according to the MAX thing you sent their operating cost is like $0.40/ppm

SomeArmchairEconomist
er, dont need to "pers" in there but you get the idea

SomeArmchairEconomist
instead of 1, make it like 3 of 5 lanes

otishertz
highway usage statistics frighten me. i'm standing down.

SomeArmchairEconomist
I have not yet begun to fight!

Rob_Dawg
MAX lies. The real cost is closer to 70¢ but that's graduate forensic transit accounting. The IRS assumes at 50.5¢ per vehicle mile so that's 32¢/pass mi

SomeArmchairEconomist
why is the ppm less than pvm?
other than more passengers

SomeArmchairEconomist
does everyone get 1.7 passengers?

otishertz
i bet it was the one about all your stocks are belong to us

SomeArmchairEconomist
haha

StewPDX
"ALL YOUR STOCKS ARE BELONG TO U.S." posted 10.01.08 - 5:13 PM. That help?

Rob_Dawg
the average POV has 1.58 passengers. [ewwww, the blood, the gore, the horror!]

otishertz
hee he

SomeArmchairEconomist
honestly, im really surprised by that number
means that no more than 50% of cars have 1 person in them, no?

otishertz
i knew the one, stew.

Rob_Dawg
everyone is always surprised at tht number just like discovering buses average 11 passengers and transit does not save energy.

SomeArmchairEconomist
ok, so if 50% of cars have 1 passenger, then the other 50% should qualify for HOV
and at least half the lanes should be HOV

SomeArmchairEconomist
buses averaging 11 doesn't surprise me
except of course the bus i ride which is constantly packed

Rob_Dawg
HOV are peak load leveling devices. During peak periods the occupancy goes down.

SomeArmchairEconomist
ahhh ok now we're getting somewhere then

Rob_Dawg
imagine ten buses, 9 with 1 passenger, 1 with 40. 80% of the people will swear the buses are packed.

SomeArmchairEconomist
good ol stats

whats the major cost in running buses, the bus or the driver?

ie if you run smaller buses for lighter lines, and bigger buses for more traveled lines, does it work out?

Rob_Dawg
I used to think corellation was causation then I took a statistics course and now I know better. Did the course help? I can never be sure.

SomeArmchairEconomist
someone reads xkcd

Rob_Dawg
The bus is probably 80%. You can verify that by looking at hourly salaries to hourly operating costs

SomeArmchairEconomist
what if instead of asking "whats more efficient" we instead ask "what option will reduce congestion, commute times, and increase urban air quality"

Rob_Dawg
Economies of scale dictate fleet makeup. If you are big enough a system then yes. Smaller agencies one model saves lot costs.
You don't want to know that answer. It isn't pretty. More roads but we lack the will for that presently.

Cars cars cars

One of the three major auto processing facilities in Port Hueneme, CA. Not only are they all full, they've leased additional space for overflow. Automobile prices are headed down.

The Enzo of Auto Sales

Jean ValJean asks:

And speaking of predictions to the downside.. how about a thread for predictions of 2009 car/light truck sales?
I call 9.5 Million.

I'm normally not one for hyperbole but I don't think this is even close. 2009 is the year of the used car. First a little background:
2000-2007 New Auto Sales
13,181 13,510 13,639 13,594 13,609 13,551 13,271 13,671

This from the BTS.

The MSM is predicting 10.5m and JVJ is saying 8.5m. I'm saying 7.5m. We all know what's going down and normally I'd like Jean's number but there's a wildcard; deflation. The hit for a new vehicle purchase is bad enough but when residual value is a function of new model yer prices you don't want to take the chance that next years' model will be cheaper. Right now I'm chasing down something like a 2005 Volvo V70 2.5T. $14k is easy but I'm looking for an $11k cherry.

BTW, the Ferrari Enzo pictured above is being repaired by Ferrari. It "belonged" to a fugitive German software crook and crashed on PCH about 15 miles away. I just thought that the idea of autos being half-off was amusing.

The New Zero Down

Hat tip Akubi.

Remember how well 0% down worked for housing? Let's try it again this time with public works.

From McClatchy:

States, for instance, usually must provide a 20 percent match to receive federal money for transportation projects. Now, though, state officials and others are trying to get the requirement waived for a stimulus bill. And with more than 40 states projecting budget deficits in the next two years, that request is finding sympathy on Capitol Hill.

Any guesses which types of "transportation" projects will get pushed with 100% funding. Yup, the least justified, otherwise known as transit boondoggles. Just ask Boulder about their light rail. Their Regional Transportation District announced the cost to build the system by its 2017 deadline would be $7.9 billion -- up from $4.7 billion. Skyrocketing prices for materials and declining revenue from RTD's 1 cent sales tax were blamed. Don't you love it? Declining revenues blamed for cost over runs.