Density Fantasies

Reburbia

Hey! there's an idea! Replace the greensward with 9 foot wide 2 plus story office space, delete 1/3rd of the parking and bingo. Urban renewal.

A Dangerous Tax Grab

Loss of funds to preserve land worries farmers

Operations may shut down

By Scott Hadly
Friday, August 14, 2009

It’s one of dozens of little nips and tucks that are part of the recently approved state budget, but the $32 million cut from a four-decade-old agricultural preservation program could lead to more farmland being bulldozed for development.

The elimination of state funding for the Williamson Act land conservation program has left many farmers wondering about the future of the program, which has helped preserve more than 16.5 million acres of agricultural land in California.

In Ventura County, where about 128,000 acres are covered by the program, farmers are lobbying Sacramento and working with local lawmakers, said John Krist, CEO of the Ventura County Farm Bureau.

Under the program, farmers commit to keeping their acreage in agriculture for 10 to 20 years in exchange for a property tax break. Instead of paying taxes based on the market rate assessment of the land, farmers pay on whatever is lower: the production value of the land, its acquisition value under Proposition 13, or its current market value.

County Assessor Dan Goodwin oversees how the land is assessed, while officials in the county’s planning department help to manage the program. Goodwin is at a conference this week and could not be reached for comment.

With so much development pressure and such a high value for land, the Williamson Act has helped preserve prime agricultural land, said Krist. The state cut means the cost of administering the program will fall to counties. In Ventura County, it costs about $325,000 a year to manage the program.

“We’re working on two fronts,” Krist said. “The California Farm Bureau is lobbying hard to keep the subvention funding in the budget and on the local level, I’ll plan to urge the supervisors to continue to participate in the program.”

A lot of local farmers are paying close attention to what happens, said Leslie Leavens-Crowe, a Farm Bureau board member and partner in her family’s farming company, Leavens Ranches, which operates lemon and avocado orchards here and in Monterey County.

The Williamson Act is particularly helpful for land purchased for farming in the past 10 to 15 years.

Often it takes several years before farmland starts producing. For orchards, it might take more than five years. To be assessed on the market value of the land, which in Ventura County can be $100,000 to $200,000 an acre, and not the production value would be unworkable, Leavens-Crowe said.

“For some of the land we have adjacent to cities that we’ve purchased at market rates in the last 10 to 15 years, it would be difficult if not impossible to make a profit” without the program, she said.

It’s unclear what will happen with the program here and statewide, whether each county will be willing to carry the cost of managing it. That throws uncertainty into the system and complicates an already difficult business.

“It could add another big incremental cost of doing business and shut down some operations,” said Leavens-Crowe.

96 Days Until the Election

Yes, you read that right. March 3rd 2009. And it is shaping up to be a doozy. First up will be the "proposal" to raise the sales tax by 1.5% for three years to "balance" the budget. As the wish list for the ballot rolls in I'll post updates but this one alone has got to go down in history as the hail mary desperation play of all time.

Another Breadcrumb

Yawn. Longtime readers have heard this before. The string of economic disasters were discussed here long ago. What got laughed at a year ago is mainstream thought today. This morning's disaster is water rates going up because of municipal borrowing rates exploding. And while the article is ignorant of the "other shoe" at least we are making progress.

But with Metropolitan Water District of Southern California's short-term loan interest rates shooting through the roof, and the shaky economy's effect on municipal bonds and investments unknown, another hurdle has risen.

The district that supplies most of Southern California with water has managed so far to deal with the flux in the budget by cutting back on capital costs. But that could change.

"If this whole situation blows up, all bets are off," Brian Thomas, Metropolitan's chief financial officer told the Ventura County Association of Water Agencies on Thursday at its monthly meeting.

The challenge Metropolitan and other public agencies face is how their debt will be managed in the short- and long-term, and how much access they will have to credit.

The article lamely parrots the water districts' claims:

He said water rates are expected to rise, but that's because of the increasing challenges of delivery, energy and lack of water coming from Northern California — not the credit crunch.

Capital costs is code for developer subsidies and cash advances. Well guess what's happened to that revenue stream? Dead. So higher waters rates for bad borrowing practices to subsidize abd development practices. Instead of paying double the California taxpayer is going to be paying 4x for the privilege of having a clueless cadre of urban planners degrade their quality of life.

If Planners Planned Automobiles

Hat Tip "Wagga."

Before laughing too hard remember planners do plan transit with similar results as shown. From AutoBlog:

Horse First Then Barn Door

Very interesting and atypical LATimes Mar 20th:

L.A. City Council rejects massive Las Lomas development
In a split vote, the panel halts its review of the 5,553-home project near the 5 and 14 freeways. Some council members fear a lawsuit.
By David Zahniser
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

1:11 PM PDT, March 20, 2008

A divided Los Angeles City Council voted Wednesday to halt its review of the 5,553-home Las Lomas project, dealing what could well be a fatal blow to the mega-development planned for north Los Angeles County.

"This project would have put 15,000 cars a day in an already heavily impacted area," said City Councilman Greig Smith, who represents the northwest San Fernando Valley. "The people of L.A. said we can't take that anymore. We're tired of it."
...
The site, just north of where the Golden State Freeway intersects the 14, is in territory represented by Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich, who opposed the project. Much of it borders Santa Clarita, which also had fought the project.

That left Los Angeles, where Smith introduced a proposal last month to stop all work on the project, partly to avoid wasting the Planning Department's time over the next two years.

The city of round heels grows a backbone or something else? Ans; a little of both.

First, this was the correct decision. There is just no way this sub-region could accommodate this project.

Second, the project obligates the region to a provision of basic services with massive upfront costs with increasing risk of no supporting revenues.

Third, given the players I fully expect the CA Supreme Court to hear at least some parts of this disagreement.

Finally, the belated hypocrisy factor.

The scorpion stings the frog because it is the scorpion's nature. both drown.

Saving Money by Spending It

I've gone through a spasm of buying some cheap entertainment recently. According to some I should be bunkering and stockpiling seed corn and bullets but other than outrageous prices there won't be rationing or bread lines so I'll just stay at home and watch DVDs at $0.35/kWh on the TV. Yes, 35¢ per kilowatt hour. Right now SCE Southern California Edison our monopolist State sponsored provider of electrons is charging something like 14¢ base but I have seen the future and it is expensive. As previously calculated here (EN, Aug 2006) it would take 40 new nuclear plants of the Diablo Canyon class to generate the energy equivalent of the gasoline we consume in California. Electrons are about to get real popular and the price is going to triple rather than new supplies being developed. This is the nasty consequence of dysfunctional intrusive liberal socialist government. In the name of environmentalism we get crippled economies, stunted technologies, rationing and you can bet; favoritism.
Too late. The economy runs the agenda now. Nobody except the insane transportation planners in the big urban enclaves are going to be in any position to do anything resembling investment. Upside down homeholders who couldn't even save for a downpayment are not in any position to pay for rooftop solar and still afford to pay for gas. In the name of not increasing taxes you can bet tax credits are on the chopping block State and Federal as well.

Continued disinvestment is what got us here. More disinvestment won't get us out.

Bigger Cities Join in Abnegation

ab·ne·ga·tion (#b.n2-g"ZshMn) n. Self-denial.

Sacramento is facing a budget shortfall of $48 million to $58 million next fiscal year. The city's general fund budget is about $450 million.

Solution?:

Under the city's proposed "voluntary separation program," full-time employees with at least five years of continuous city service are eligible, with priority given to workers who have been at the city for 10 years or more. The city is offering one week of pay for each year worked, but the amount cannot exceed $50,000.
...To pay for the buy-outs, the city will us up to $7 million from its reserves, according to the report. The city anticipates it will save up to $13 million in the first year and $20 million in future years.

----
Source: Sacramento Bee

Draw down the reserves $7m to save $13m. Here's an idea; lay them off. Be sure to read the responses.

Gov Elbridge Gerry Would Be Proud

This is the 23rd congressional district of Lois Capps in pink. Nothing like a compact district with regular borders to insure impartial representation. This is why we have Nancy Pelosi as House Chair. Get used to it.

Thanks below for the reference to fairdistricts.com with their truer to scale map:

Density Density Density Pt. 2.0 Perception

Look at these three pictures.



First blush they are seem pretty high density but that's only because you are judging density by looking at what I've chosen to show.
Here are those three again. Golf course, tract crackers and beachfront.



This is perceptual density. Planners have no clue why beachfront commands a premium. Unfortunately planner theory doesn't place any value on many of the built environment amenities people value.

Density Density Density Pt. 1 What Is Density?

"For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple--and wrong." - HL Menken

No such luck this time. If only there were just wrong and right answers the problems would have ling since been resolved. Density is people in a space. Cut it any finer and planning breaks out and spoils the whole mess.

Today's Plantetizen has an interesting article from the Globe & Mail that shows even whole nations struggle with an identity based upon these arbitrary constructs. Excerpt: Mayors and media pundits insist we're a rapidly citifying nation. Which calls for a radical shift in resources and Canadian identity. But does the proverbial 80/20 split between downtown and down on the farm reflect a new era for a pioneer dominion - or just bad math? Gee, where have we heard the hue and cry that we must do things differently based upon bad science claims? Why is it that it always seems to be pro-urbanists that embrace these tactics? Nevermind for now. We are still laying background. There will be plenty of time to sling the mud after we establish a common language.

The US Census calls places with 1500 persons per square mile urban. The only other choice is rural for everything else. A square mile is pretty big, 640 acres. That's a golf course and 500 houses which would qualify as urban. A square mile is\\can either be a fine or a pretty coarse measure. The smallest cachement is the census block. The next largest is the block group, a logical assemblage of census blocks.
Check out Wendell Cox's decile rankings from the 2000 Census. Hard to imagine Los Angeles as being significantly more compact than Boston eh? That's why the data is more important than the perception. Or is it? Hmmmm.

Density Density Density Pt. 0

Amazingly this is not another tedious anti-density rant. Nope, this is a pro-density post. Density is still a stupid idea but that doesn't mean it lacks aspects that some people desire. Okay, for the most part they want density for other people but still...

First. What is density and what is it not? What are we measuring and at what scale? What about demands on the same physical spaces from non-residential uses? How do architecture and geography and adjacent land uses affect the perception of density? What are the current energy/environment conditions and what portends for the future? How do shared spaces and public spaces fit into the equation?

This is a "Zero Level" post for asking questions and making suggestions. Next up; why density always costs more. Always.
Oh, and just to prove I'm not wholly opposed to crowding people:

Vocation Avocation

av·o·ca·tion (#v.7-k"ZshMn) n.
• An activity taken up in addition to one's regular work or profession, usually for enjoyment; a hobby.
• Archaic: A distraction or diversion.
A shy reader asks via email:

Land use/transportation as a hobby? Could you be more specific?

Maybe you can help me with an observation:
Why is the garage the most prominent feature on a house? I mean, it is first thing you see and it occupies such a large portion of the front of the house. My suspicion is that this is the most efficient way to build as much house on a small plot of land (i.e. the ranch style subdivision). Personally, I find it annoying. I don't want to see the garage. I would prefer to have the garage accessed on the side of the house (i.e. corner lot house) or have the garage detached and recessed to the back of the house.

Snout houses... don't get me started. Oh wait... you did get me started. Well then, you asked for it.

First, the short answer: Planners and developers conspire to promote this ugly pattern. Planners initiate the downward spiral by misapplying zoning to promote their urbanist goals and supposedly save money for municipalities. Developers under those restrictions are severely limited in the housing types they can build and still make a profit. The result is snout houses.

Here's how I explain it:
I've noticed one trend that runs right through the
center of every planner driven theory of development
for the last half century. They all seek to
maximize the proportions of public space. Even
traditional suburban residential designs now
typically dedicate three times the area of 50
years ago. No wonder the sense of community is
weakening; we are progressively disenfranchising
any sense of ownership.
----
Snout houses are the result of planners backing private property behind gates and walls and garages.

Dodge Bob & Weave

That bastion of oldthink MSM the LATimes has the usual agitprop cheerleader article on the latest pack'o'lies being foisted on a desperate metro, state and nation. Anybody got $11b lying around?

Here's the justification for spending all that money: ...the new concept has sparked much debate because of how crucial many officials see the subway to easing the Westside's traffic woes.

A subway to the Westside CANNOT ease traffic congestion. It just isn't possible. The best a subway can hope to accomplish is to hold off an increase in the rate of congestion growth. That only after screwing millions of people for many years with massively increased congestion during construction that will leave behind LESS transportation capacity.

Understand the "Red Line to the Sea" is just LA suffering world class city syndrome. It has no more regional importance than a museum or sports franchise. The lie is in calling it anything more than that.

No Duh

Burned, gone, up in flames. Built in 2002. Any guesses why a house 50 feet away from a raw canyon with limited access would catch fire?

You can use the LATimes database to search for destroyed homes.

Personally I'm thinking the devil. She did it. Actually this is a classic failure of planning but if I said that I wouldn't be able to put up this picture.

Hat tip to MaxedOutMama for both her recent concern and for reminding me that we need the occasional nekkid lady to keep things exciting.

Blustery Tuesday

The map shows no fires nearby and while the wind is as bad as ever it is expected to die out this afternoon.

One thing I found interesting is the myths about SoCal that build up in peoples minds. Lou Minnati observed: From your post yesterday (34.251,-119.081) I see that you have farms just north of your house. I thought they plowed under all the farms in your neck of the woods.


The Dawg Pound is extreme lower center, the rest is farmland. This is real farmland not some developer owned fields waiting for the bulldozers. In fact Agriculture is the #1 industry in the county dwarfing even biotech giant Amgen. The myth is that a region the size of New England is in anyway homgenous. After the fires are old news we'll revisit the planning successes and failures that led to why some places are still nice and others uninteresting urban sprawl.

Cul-de-Sacs Then and Now

1960s:

1970s:

1990s

(N.B. all to the same scale)
The top is c1961 and the middle c1973 and the bottom c1998. What happened in that first dozen years? Planners happened. Which to do think is the nicer place to live? Which way since then has planning pushed us even further? Developers will build the second kind of crap so that they can live in the first kind of neighborhood. No, it is poor planning policies that are responsible.

Oh and just for reference from a mere 3000 miles away, the 1950s version:

There are three things that should most strike you. First FAR or floor area ratios. Second intensity of grading and concurrent uniformity and impermeability. Third the percentage of public to private space.

Woe to us what a half century of planner agenda hath wrought.

A Little Beauty

"Ugliness is so grim, a little beauty can create harmony.

Anyone younger than about 40 has no idea how just one of her ideas forever changed Exurban America for the better. Her "Highway Beautification Program" failed but the intent was adopted nearly nationwide and today our highways are not tedious commercial advertising opportunities but rather scenic vista opportunities.

Central Los Angeles High School #11

Never heard of Central Los Angeles High School #11? How about Vista Hermosa High School? No? That's deliberate. You see the Belmont Learning Center, aka the world's most expensive high school is far too controversial. Belmont is what happens when planners get to make the decisions. CLAHS #11 is just a way of relabeling a bad idea.

So. What did the planners decide when given a chance? Mixed, use, high density, urban core, transit oriented, and exempt from all the usual environmental concerns that planners would insist be addressed had this not been a planning showcase.
"But Rob. What's wrong with a badly needed urban high school?" Nothing. That isn't the question. How would you suggest $400 million be spent to greatest effect?

Is California F*cked?

M&P comments:

For CA, I'd say a decade [bubble recovery].

The only thing that would help right now is special refis for fucked borrowers facing resets that let them stay in their houses, but the trade up/equity ATM is over, and over for a long, long time.

Without something like that propping up this state, it's going to bellyflop in a way that will shock everyone.

If this fraud of an amnesty is passed, all bets are off, that might not even help.

Every year, the CA legislation tries to find a way around Prop 13. If they manage that, we're talking generations.

Which is why I'm looking at getting the hell out of CA, no matter what, we're pretty much fucked.

Damn straight. I don't think this State has any idea how mobile and how close to going mobile their cash cow residents are right now. Readers remember last week my saying Massachusetts looked good in comparison. M&P is right. There are millions of families who if faced with what is being discussed here will up and leave. Their vaccuum will be filled with the worst social problems ever seen in a democracy. The only thing we may disagree upon is the better than amnesty bill that has risen from the grave. For many if the better than amnesty bill passes it will be the sign to leave rather than a way to hold on a little longer.