Huevos Grande

Give 'em credit. It takes a big pair to bring this one to market:
271 Myrtle Ave Oxnard, CA 93036

$/Sq. Ft.: $223
Lot Size: 0.69 Acres
Property Type: Detached, Modular/Manufactured
View: Other/See Remarks
Year Built: 2000
Community: El Rio / Nyeland Acres
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What's the big deal? Location, location, location. Here's the aerial:


Best described as "construction adjacent. Bet they don't mention the freeway is being widened. Not that it matters. Look at the sales history:

Mar 23, 2010 Changed $579,000
Feb 16, 2010 Listed $649,000
Dec 02, 2009 Sold $450,000
Jul 13, 1999 Sold $216,000

Nice flip. Fail.

HELOC I Love You Won't You Sell Me Your Gain?

Today's Ventura County Star has more than seven pages of NOTS (Notice of Trustee's Sale). The prices at roughly $5 million dollars per page. $35m worth of foreclosures in the paper toady alone. Let's look at some:

1291 Newman St Simi Valley CA 93065
4 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,740 sq ft
06/16/2005: $495,000
NOTS: $719,416.33

1676 Glider Ct Thousand Oaks CA 91320
4 beds, 3.5 baths, 2,742 sq ft
04/10/2002: $472,000
NOTS: $806,195.30

5083 Dodson St Somis CA 93066
4 beds, 2.0 baths, 2,362 sq ft
12/23/2002: $393,000
NOTS: $766,737.25

All these last sold at prices much lower than the foreclosure price. You have to wonder how many have seconds, HELOCs, thirds, etc. that aren't even counted having already been written off to zero.

Half Off!

I love my neighborhood and it looks like we'll have some new neighbors at 3153 CalleDe Marejada:

Sprawling Single Story Custom Estate Home, 5 bedrooms, spacious office, 6.5 baths, 3 fireplaces, vaulted ceilings, granite, new stainless steel appliances, crown molding, surround sound speakers, etc. Too many features to list! Awesome backyard featuring covered patios, pool & spa, guest house w/ 2 bedrooms, bath & kitchen, flagstone pathways, pool bath, gazebo and outdoor kitchen island ready to add appliances. 4 car garage with paver motorcourt & half-circle drive.

Date Event Price Appreciation
Mar 10, 2010 Listed $1,599,800 -- VCRDS #10003829
Oct 28, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $1,360,000 -17.3%/yr
Jun 02, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $2,600,000 103.8%/yr
Aug 08, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 1.2%/yr
Oct 13, 1989 Sold (Public Records) $295,000
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I did the math. The previous owners lost $1000 per day.

CRE Hopium

Craigslist find:

RESTAURANT FOR SALE
Price: $150,000
This furnished restaurant is ready to go right now with an Outdoor Grill and food service area. Kitchen needs some remodeling work to become fully functional.There are 5,200 Sq. Ft inside and a large outside patio with a fire pit. It overlooks the habor and the boat docks, attacking herds of people to the location. Inside there is a fireplace area to relax in and a beautiful rock waterfall area to sit and enjoy a cocktail and meal.

This restaurant recently closed due to poor management....
... the rent is only $2.24 a Sq. Ft (including the patio Sq. Ft)
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Eh. What could go wrong?

Hope Springs Eternal

Oxnard
Feb 06, 2010 Listed $559,900 -- VCRDS #10002095
Dec 10, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $490,000 14.5%/yr
May 29, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $202,500 -31.4%/yr
Oct 08, 2001 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 5.7%/yr
Nov 16, 1993 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 --

I imagine the 2003 price was a divorce split.

2004-2009 Total assessed value: = $541,708 = $552,542 = $563,592 = $574,863 = $586,359 = $495,000

We'll watch this flip closely. Here are the neighboring zillow comps:

GRM 13.8

GRM is gross rent multiplier. That means annual rent as a ratio to purchase price.

$2,200,000. That's $220,000 per apartment. Now, I prefer the other GRM, monthly, not annually. Multiply by 12 is all. That's 165. In other words in this market 40% overpriced for a recovery. 60% overpriced for rent deflation expectations. They claim $ $13,000/mo in rent receipts. Taxes would eat the first $2000 every month. Ouch. Debt service also says 40% overpriced on a cash flow basis.

Hope springs eternal.

The End of a Perfect Day II

Thomas kinkade painting or generator for trade..... (fillmore)

Date: 2010-02-24, 10:01AM PST
Reply to: sale-xgbfk-1615859440@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]

Ive got a thomas kinkade painting END OF A PERFECT DAY II comes with certificate of authenticity and a Briggs and Stratton xl4000 generator used twice like new for trade need my front and back yards done.... (sod, lil plants ect) your gonna need to haull out levvel the dirt and plant the sod. Let me know what you got in mind lets talk..............

Location: fillmore
it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
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Any takers? The great unwinding continues. Imagine this one. A frou-frou painting for hard labor or a solid pice of hardware for hard labor. "Stuff" is so mis-allocated. It ain't over.

Out Behind the Barn

94 acres near St. Thomas Aquinas College. 4425 Ojai Rd, Santa Paula.

This beautifully rugged property is located about 2 miles north of downtown Santa Paula on Hwy. 150 and is less than a mile south of Steckle Park. Ojai would only be about another 5 miles. There is enough level to rolling area for a small farming operation. Horses and other livestock would be a natural here. Enjoy the Little Red Barn. Use it for storage or a place for you and your family and friends to meet. There are roads to take you through the property and to the tops of the hills to enjoy nature and the panoramic views, including the ocean, Topa Topa and city lights. There is abundant wildlife, which includes: deer, quail, dove, rabbits, etc. Part of the property is on the east side of Highway 150 and actually fronts on Santa Paula Creek. Only minutes to town and about one and a quarter hours to L.A. What a great place for a weekend getaway!!!

Am I forgetting anything? Oh yes. The barn:

Hittin' the ATM

Nice place. Been owned so long that zillow has no sales history. The tax data support this. They are paying a whopping $1492 per year in property taxes. That puts the purchase most likely in the mid 1980s for less than $100,000. Sweet deal eh? Slapping down a $600 mortgage and $80-$120 taxes for 25 years and looking at a balance of ~$25,000. And in 5 years even that car payment sized mortgage goes away. Right? Wrong. Opening bid at auction tomorrow (Feb 19th, 2010): $675,000.
Realtytrac listing.
Zillow for what it's worth(less).

What in the world were these people thinking?

A Little Off The Top

Why rent when you can buy? Then again why not buy and rent it out? Here's a tri-level town home in the new Riverpark complex. Let's run the numbers. Actually that's old hat. Let's run just one number; carrying cost ex-mortgage.

614 Green River St, Oxnard, CA 93036
3/ 2.5/1,519/$188
YEAR BUILT: 2008 MLS#: 90013806

Great tri level condo available in the gorgeous RiverPark development. The home features granite counter tops with Stainless Steel Appliances. The home will include the washer, dryer, softwater system, alarm and refrigerator. The home includes a third level with a huge room and walk in closet. Walking distance to parks and schools.

Now the important numbers:
Homeowners Association Dues: $211
Tax (2008) $5,384

Got that? $660/mo for the privilege of ownership.
You might get $1300/mo renting this out. That leaves $640 for debt service. That sets the value at $143,000. Asking price? $285,900. It's almost as if they were working the numbers backwards except multiplying by 2.

Put Down Your Beverage

I will not be responsible for damaged keyboards.

This gem from nearby Thousand Oaks. Get a load of the description.

Ready for another amazing asset? Well my fellow hardworking agents and brokers this could be the one! Hurry today because we all know there is no inventory and this sweet little nutter butter is priced so well - so don't procrastinate on this jewel - make an offer quick! Those buyers who have been sitting on that unsturdy fence - now is that time to jump in the market - so put the pen to the paper and get r done! This single story home is bursting with many features like a open and neutral interior with clean carpet and tiled entry and baths, updated kitchen, gas stove top, cozy fireplace in the living room, covered patio, 2 car direct access garage, and a sparkling pool with some views from the huge rear yard of the distant mountains. This home will be on the market for a limited time only - you could be the lucky winner - just make us the best offer in which the Seller can't refuse!

And this sweetheart? $/SQ. FT.: $355
Get a load of the curb appeal:

The history:
Jan 09, 2010 Relisted -- -- VCRDS #90020149
Dec 25, 2009 Delisted -- -- VCRDS #90020149
Dec 19, 2009 Listed $450,000 -- VCRDS #90020149
Oct 28, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $403,055 -6.7%/yr Public Records
Jun 18, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $585,000 32.3%/yr Public Records
Apr 03, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 8.3%/yr Public Records
Aug 06, 2001 Sold (Public Records) $299,000 11.5%/yr Public Records
Dec 02, 1999 Sold (Public Records) $249,000 3.7%/yr Public Records
Oct 24, 1991 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 -- Public Records

Got that? Sad. But then I'm not a "fellow hard working agent." What do I know?

886 Camino La Maida
Thousand Oaks, CA 91360

Update:
My new mailbox since the one in the picture is o ugly:

La Loma Redux

It's back. La Loma is back on the market.


You'd never know this was once asking for a million.

Price Drop La Loma

Rancho Margarita - A rare find in Somis! This 4BR/3BTH home sits on 11.66 acres with spectacular ocean and valley views from nearly every room. Open floorplan with common areas upstairs and three of four bedrooms downstairs. Numerous balconies, large windows and sliding doors bring the outside in. Large master suite with private patio and ocean/island views from the bathtub. Pool, spa and BBQ area are set to the ultimate backdrop. Four car extra-deep garage with additional work area. Large downstairs laundry room could be second kitchen to create potential inlaw unit. The hilltop home is surrounded by stately pine and sycamore trees, providing ultimate privacy from the few neighbors. A paved private road winds through the orchard, giving direct access to La Loma Ave; stop at the 2-stall barn with separate tack room and outside pen area - ideal for your farm animals. Nine shares of Del Norte ag water and private reservoir irrigate approx 800 avocado trees.
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Nov 10, 2009 Price Changed $1,449,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
Oct 13, 2009 Listed $1,550,000 -- VCRDS #90016961
Aug 13, 2009 Price Changed $1,550,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
Apr 12, 2009 Listed $1,750,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
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Fifty thousand dollars off. $301,000 off original price. Sorry but 3% doesn't freshen the listing. Hat tip to "Effective Demand" who noticed the price drop. Maybe 20% more and I can afford it and it makes sense.

Backing out the taxable basis ($2100/yr) it looks like a 1989/1990 sale for approximately $160k. Nice.

House Prices in Gold

Feb '06 median Ventura County home: $680k
Price of gold: $560/oz.
Median home price in gold: 1214 ounces.

Oct '09 median Ventura county home: $419k
Price of gold: $1000
Median home price in gold: 419 ounces.

Value today of the gold you bought in 2006 after selling your house: $1,214,000.

Turn one house into 3 in 3 years. Sounds like something Casey would do (in reverse).

A Tale of Two Neighbors Part 1 The Ranchos

The paths to putting houses in strong hands are varied and interesting. Here we have two neighbors that have taken roads less travelled. This is the Somis Area of Ventura County.

Our two market competitors are in the lower left:
5577 La Cumbre Rd
Somis, CA 93066
Price: $750,000
BEDS: 4 BATHS: 3
SQ. FT.: 3,631 $/SQ. FT.: $207
LOT SIZE: 2.16 Acres
YEAR BUILT: 1973

And at the upper right:
4386 Palomino Dr
Somis, CA 93066
Price: $628,300
BEDS: 4 BATHS: 2.5
SQ. FT.: 2,486 $/SQ. FT.: $253
LOT SIZE: 0.66 Acres
YEAR BUILT: 1976

Now look at the differences in their descriptions.

La Cumbre
Short Sale: Subject to Lender Approval. Great value property in rural Somis, Horses Allowed! Spanish Ranch Style 4 Bedroom/4 Bath single level home with in-ground pool on two acres. Family and Living rooms. Game room includes a wet bar. This home is clean. Multiple fruit trees. Home sets on back of part of acreage. Call your Realtor today and schedule a private showing!

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Palomino
Just REDUCED over $56,000! Exceptional opportunity for this gated corner lot property with over 1/2 acre and views front and rear from front & rear balconies/deck. Property is dated, but in good condition. 4 car garage with 1 tandem space plus an RV garage and plenty more room for storage. All bedrooms upstairs. Great potential. .. great area. Property is sold as is and buyer is responsible for any & all inspections.

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50% more house in obviously better condition on 3x the land and privacy. No contest here especially since Palomino all but screams that there are structural problems. It probably isn't an oversight that it wasn't picked up by the aggressive third party buyers for a flip. The question is whether La Cumbre is really a short sale that isn't obvious from the records and whether it will eventually go back to the bank for an even better deal.

In part 2 we'll graduate from rachos to a pair of nearby neighboring ranches.

CRE Overbuilding

LATimes this morning:

The exodus from office buildings that started in late 2007 accelerated during the third quarter as the anemic business climate took its toll on the real estate rental industry, according to the Cushman & Wakefield real estate brokerage.
"These vacancies are a direct reflection on unemployment," said Joe Vargas, an executive vice president at Cushman & Wakefield. "Companies continue to reduce their workforce, or they are not hiring."

Snark translation: Thank you for choosing Cushman & Wakefield. We know you have many choices when analyzing the Southern California CRE market and we are dedicated to making your meal here with us a pleasant one. One note; the entire company is a hopium smoking section for your convienence. On the menu this morning ; one large cup of denial, buttered statistics, a steaming bowl of hypocrisy. For the main course; only the finest hand packed sausage made from the same secret ingredient entrails that go into our projections. For dessert; dollops of a most distracting concoction, blame of unemployment, is piled on top of the truth of overbuilding so that the resulting melange simply transcends understanding. We call it hoocoodanode parfait. And for your entertainment your server will read from his latest book.

IMO SoCal CRE suffers more from shadow overcapacity than does RRE. There were a lot of perfect storm trends that came together to produce this historic imbalance. Those general trends can be broken down into several categories. Economic, demographic, geographic, sociological, technological and competitive. We can spend hours on any but just an example of competitive. The Oxnard Target store is moving. A whole 1/2 mile across the freeway, further away from its cachement locus. Why? Because if they don't a competitor might take that new space and predate their customers. Now you've got a surplus full size Target store close to the core of a large population center.

Ventura Star story:

The closure of Oxnard’s existing Target will increase the barren surroundings of the area, which has seen its share of shuttered businesses: 24 Hour Fitness next door to Target; the abandoned Wagon Wheel area across Oxnard Boulevard; and a nearby boarded-up building that formerly housed Levitz.

Curtis Cannon, the city’s community development director, said he’s not concerned.

The green arrow is the new Target location:

Another Late Party Arrival

This one is a hoot. It's like the last 3 years never happened.

Modest 1/2 acre golf course house. Nice if dated. Purchased 05/08/2008: $855,000. Across the street from a recent comp 10% less. So, what do you do when you overpay? Go pergraniteel wild of course.

Here's a before shot:


And after:


Can you say over-improved? The first flip strategy was to "rent." For some reason there was a dearth of applications at $4500/month. Oh well, those months empty only served to add to the appreciation of the investment. Right?

Thus the new wishing price: $1,899,000
Yup, tack a 1 to the front and let's go fishing. I mean if you don't want to rent for $4500 then you can buy for only $400,000 down and $8,000 per month instead.

A Dangerous Tax Grab

Loss of funds to preserve land worries farmers

Operations may shut down

By Scott Hadly
Friday, August 14, 2009

It’s one of dozens of little nips and tucks that are part of the recently approved state budget, but the $32 million cut from a four-decade-old agricultural preservation program could lead to more farmland being bulldozed for development.

The elimination of state funding for the Williamson Act land conservation program has left many farmers wondering about the future of the program, which has helped preserve more than 16.5 million acres of agricultural land in California.

In Ventura County, where about 128,000 acres are covered by the program, farmers are lobbying Sacramento and working with local lawmakers, said John Krist, CEO of the Ventura County Farm Bureau.

Under the program, farmers commit to keeping their acreage in agriculture for 10 to 20 years in exchange for a property tax break. Instead of paying taxes based on the market rate assessment of the land, farmers pay on whatever is lower: the production value of the land, its acquisition value under Proposition 13, or its current market value.

County Assessor Dan Goodwin oversees how the land is assessed, while officials in the county’s planning department help to manage the program. Goodwin is at a conference this week and could not be reached for comment.

With so much development pressure and such a high value for land, the Williamson Act has helped preserve prime agricultural land, said Krist. The state cut means the cost of administering the program will fall to counties. In Ventura County, it costs about $325,000 a year to manage the program.

“We’re working on two fronts,” Krist said. “The California Farm Bureau is lobbying hard to keep the subvention funding in the budget and on the local level, I’ll plan to urge the supervisors to continue to participate in the program.”

A lot of local farmers are paying close attention to what happens, said Leslie Leavens-Crowe, a Farm Bureau board member and partner in her family’s farming company, Leavens Ranches, which operates lemon and avocado orchards here and in Monterey County.

The Williamson Act is particularly helpful for land purchased for farming in the past 10 to 15 years.

Often it takes several years before farmland starts producing. For orchards, it might take more than five years. To be assessed on the market value of the land, which in Ventura County can be $100,000 to $200,000 an acre, and not the production value would be unworkable, Leavens-Crowe said.

“For some of the land we have adjacent to cities that we’ve purchased at market rates in the last 10 to 15 years, it would be difficult if not impossible to make a profit” without the program, she said.

It’s unclear what will happen with the program here and statewide, whether each county will be willing to carry the cost of managing it. That throws uncertainty into the system and complicates an already difficult business.

“It could add another big incremental cost of doing business and shut down some operations,” said Leavens-Crowe.

Delinquents

California mortgage delinquencies expected to rise through 2009

TransUnion expects the percentage of California home loans that are at least 60 days late or are in foreclosure to skyrocket to more than 14% by year-end.

By E. Scott Reckard

12:25 AM PDT, August 25, 2009

Mortgage delinquencies will continue to rise and set records the rest of this year in California, according to projections to be released today by TransUnion, one of the three big U.S. credit-reporting companies.

The good news from TransUnion's number-crunching is that, even in the tarnished Golden State, the trend may finally reverse itself by the middle of next year.

...
In the region including Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, the delinquency rate also was expected to hit 14% at the end of the year, up from 10.7% as of June 30.

"We think that's about as bad as it's going to get," Guarrera said.

...
As of June 30, 14.9% of residential mortgages in San Bernardino County were at least 60 days late. And in Riverside County, where boom-era home building reached a frenzied peak, 16.5% of home loans were at least 60 days past due.

By comparison, at the end of the first quarter of 2007, Riverside County's delinquency rate was 2.6% and San Bernardino County's, 2.3%.

The normal national rate for these delinquencies is 1.6% to 2%, Guarrera said.
...

Mary Jane Is Smoking

LATimes:
August 16, 2009 | Huge Santa Barbara County wildfire caused by marijuana farm; suspects at large in forest

A fire that has burned more than 75,000 acres in Santa Barbara County over the last week was started in an illegal marijuana growing area operated by a Mexican drug organization, authorities said.

Authorities said they confirmed that the blaze, which is burning out of control, started in a cooking area of the pot farm. They believe those responsible are still in the forest area trying leave the forest by foot. 

"The Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Narcotics Unit has confirmed that the camp at the origin of the fire was an illegal marijuana operation believed to be run by a Mexican national drug organization," according to a statement from the Los Padres National Forest. "The Narcotics Unit has been working in the area within the last month eradicating other nearby marijuana cultivation sites." 

The location of those who ran the pot farm isn't known, but forest officials warn "not to approach anyone who looks suspicious but to instead contact the nearest law enforcement agency."

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How many bad public policies had to come together to make this story?