Sunday, October 18, 2009

CRE Overbuilding

LATimes this morning:
The exodus from office buildings that started in late 2007 accelerated during the third quarter as the anemic business climate took its toll on the real estate rental industry, according to the Cushman & Wakefield real estate brokerage.
"These vacancies are a direct reflection on unemployment," said Joe Vargas, an executive vice president at Cushman & Wakefield. "Companies continue to reduce their workforce, or they are not hiring."

Snark translation: Thank you for choosing Cushman & Wakefield. We know you have many choices when analyzing the Southern California CRE market and we are dedicated to making your meal here with us a pleasant one. One note; the entire company is a hopium smoking section for your convienence. On the menu this morning ; one large cup of denial, buttered statistics, a steaming bowl of hypocrisy. For the main course; only the finest hand packed sausage made from the same secret ingredient entrails that go into our projections. For dessert; dollops of a most distracting concoction, blame of unemployment, is piled on top of the truth of overbuilding so that the resulting melange simply transcends understanding. We call it hoocoodanode parfait. And for your entertainment your server will read from his latest book.

IMO SoCal CRE suffers more from shadow overcapacity than does RRE. There were a lot of perfect storm trends that came together to produce this historic imbalance. Those general trends can be broken down into several categories. Economic, demographic, geographic, sociological, technological and competitive. We can spend hours on any but just an example of competitive. The Oxnard Target store is moving. A whole 1/2 mile across the freeway, further away from its cachement locus. Why? Because if they don't a competitor might take that new space and predate their customers. Now you've got a surplus full size Target store close to the core of a large population center.

Ventura Star story:
The closure of Oxnard’s existing Target will increase the barren surroundings of the area, which has seen its share of shuttered businesses: 24 Hour Fitness next door to Target; the abandoned Wagon Wheel area across Oxnard Boulevard; and a nearby boarded-up building that formerly housed Levitz.

Curtis Cannon, the city’s community development director, said he’s not concerned.

The green arrow is the new Target location:


Northern Renter said...

But maybe nobody bothered to shop at the first Target store there.


Lost Cause said...

Nobody walks in LA. But nobody walks in Irvine, either, because a drive around industrial Irvine (I repeat myself) is a parade of empty space, as difficult as that may be to describe.

sm_landlord said...

The linked story mentions more retail slated to go in at the Wagon Wheel site. What are they thinking - yet another outlet center?

Hey, I have an idea. They could rip down the old Esplanade and Wagon Wheel skeletons and grow strawberries! What a concept.

Lou Minatti said...

Target is Walmart, only with lots of red paint on the walls and nicer shopping carts. Funny that I don't hear the Walmart bashers ever attack Target, even though Target is also filled with cheap crap from China and they also pay low wages.

Bill in NC said...

And Target's return policy is terrible:

Only store credit, and that credit only good within the same department - e.g., return an item of clothing, and you can't use the credit on toys.

I'll stick to Wal-Mart and the warehouse clubs.

NHSteph said...

Spot on, Lou! I can't tell you how many people I've called out on "Tar-jaay vs. Walmart" battle.

It's kind of like politics-- same crap, different colors.

Rob Dawg said...

The Oxnard Walmart is 5 miles away. The Camarillo Target is 3. Tijuana v. San Diego.

Property Flopper said...

So Rob... we need to chat. Subject, cheesecake.

Yes, technically if you make a cheesecake with bleu cheese, it is still a cheesecake. It tastes a little funny and nobody will eat it other than on a dare, but...

A similar theory should apply to the other type of cheesecake - if you're humming Aerosmyth's "Dude Looks Like a Lady" while posting it, it's a bad idea. Anyone who has to shave their back should not be seen in a wicked weasle (that actually applies for men or women).

I recognized the actor when I saw the picture (s)he has been on several shows, etc. That's still not the first thing to see on a Monday morning...

Rob Dawg said...

Prop Flop,

"Modern man a wimp says anthropologist"

Didn't you get it?

Property Flopper said...

Oh yeah, I got that. The pic is quite appropriate for the topic - just not on a Monday morning. Probably my fault for not checking it on the weekend.

Just like after feeding someone bleu cheese cheesecake, you'd want to have a real dessert hiding in the kichen. Perhaps strawberry cheesecake, or at least strawberry blonde cheesecake.

Isla Fischer or Amy Adams are always nice...

Rob Dawg said...

Your subscription fee has been refunded with interest. ;-)

Northern Renter said...

And let me do my grammar Nazi (phylogenetic Nazi?) routine about the home page rabbit. It is not an attack lupine, it is an attack leporine. Lupine refers to wolves. So don't be sheepish about changing it.


PS Our housing bubble has not yet burst in Canada, and the banks aren't responsible for the upcoming debts. It will all go to the government CMHC, which guarantees mortgages. F*** those F***ing F***ers.

Property Flopper said...

Yup. I complain about free entertainment. It's just my nature...

I'll invest that subscription fee with the nice financial advisor I met the other day... she was really pushing real estate trusts as the way to go.

When I asked if she'd looked at real estate lately, she assured me that these were different - they were involved in comercial real estate - shopping malls and that kind of thing. Those weren't involved in the crash and were a good investment...

I decided to chat with someone else at that point.

Rob Dawg said...

You haven't even submitted the bills for crayon damage so I don't know how to begin to recompense for my part in in your housing bubble.

Yes, I know/knew all about the malapropism. It has always been deliberate.

Despite your first hand evidence that I might possibly be familiar with things like cultery you doubt this?

Good to hear from you my friend. if the weather gets oppressive feel free to book a flight south and west. Room for all and guided tours of Disneyland through Hearst Castle. Jim the Realtor might even join us if we visit Sea World.

Rob Dawg said...

or at least strawberry blonde cheesecake.

Your wish is my next post. Strawberry blonde cheesecake it is. Without revealing too much I should say I would consider it an insult should you critique the content.

H Simpson said...

Heh Dawg

This just in.

BOSTON, Massachusetts (CNN) -- Investigators have charged a man with providing material support to terrorists and other crimes, the acting U.S. attorney for Massachusetts said Wednesday.

The suspect was arrested a year ago in connection with the terror probe, but the latest charges are more serious, said Michael K. Loucks, the acting U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts.

The man and others planned to attack at least one U.S. shopping mall, but that didn't happen because they couldn't obtain the assault weapons they wanted, Loucks said. He didn't name the mall.

Loucks said the men had planned to assault multiple entrances of the center, and had determined the steps the attackers would take when first responders arrived.

Other charges against the man include conspiracy to kill, kidnap, maim or endanger other people, according to Loucks.

The attorney said the man and co-conspirators planned a jihad, and to further that took trips overseas, including visiting terrorist training camps

Our buddy here lives in Sudbury.

Now then, what mall is near toney Sudbury????

Oh yeah, the Collection in Natick.
Yep, I am sure nothing helps to move overpriced condos at that mall then knowing it is ground zero for the next terrorist attack.

Man the folks who bought into the concept have got the worst luck/intelligence.

You know those terrorists would never try that stunt at Walmart. Between the cheap shotguns in the sporting goods dept, and the heavy artillary secured to the back window on half the pickups in the parking lot, those boys would lose a shootout in record time.

Northern Renter said...

These birds don't fly south until the snow is up to our ears. It's actually a great time of year as the leaves turn colour and the boys start riding bikes without training wheels. The big piles of leaves make a good cushion upon which to fall.


PS Crayons have been quite useful, but they are dwarfed in number by washable markers chez nous. We've actually left one drawing on our living room wall because we like it so much. Does that say more about the boy's artistic talent or his parents lack of taste?

Mr. Outspoken said...

CNN is sad about people losing their unemployed Bennies. Like poor Gregg Rock.

"With so many people looking for work, Rock feels his best chance is land a new job is through networking. But it costs him $18 just to trek into Manhattan, not to mention $4 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks, where he often meets people who he hopes will lead him to a job."

It must be tough to not have worked for over a year, not have any income, and yet still commute and afford daily luxuries. My heart bleeds for him.

Bob said...

Talk about your CRE fiasco (and a follow up to an earlier thread), NY's highest court has ruled against Tishman Speyer in a suit related to the rent deregulation of Stuy Town/Peter Cooper Village:

the NYT story here

CalPERS & CalSTRS $600 million investment was shaky even before this ruling.