Thursday, April 05, 2018

How NOT to Upgrade


It's one thing to update and modernize.  It is entirely a different thing to price yourself out of the neighborhood.  Follows is an example of over improvement.

5475 Acorn Dr, Wrightwood, CA 92397

2 beds 1 bath 900 sqft

For Sale
$320,000
Zestimate®: $290,565


For comparison and probably what the before picture looked like:

1600 Barbara St, Wrightwood, CA 92397

2 beds 2 baths 972 sqft

Off Market
Zestimate®: $236,194

40 comments:

Jim the Realtor said...

I want my upgrades for free - just like my chicks! :)

Lawyerliz said...

The old version is perfectly ok. If that's about what it looked like. I think is rare to get your money back. If you intend to stay there 5 or 10 years do whatever you want.

Rob Dawg said...

Stainless leaves fingerprints!

Lawyerliz said...

You might want to paint the outside, and Make the front room nice with painting and new rugs.
And, as your mother said,.PICK UP YOUR CRAP.

Lawyerliz said...

I hate stainless.

Lawyerliz said...

$320k For 900 square feet? Y'all are crazy.

Rob Dawg said...

Liz, that's what all the kitchens (before) look like in Wrightwood. Straight mountain living utility. All my rentals and the family unit look like the second picture. Okay, the family cabin has some of the most unbelievable psychodelic vinyl flowers and butterflies wallpaper. It's like a time travel chamber.

Rob Dawg said...

> $320k For 900 square feet? Y'all are crazy.

One word. One word only. "Hurricanes."

Okay, that's not even remotely fair as the Swarthout Valley is not really a "valley" but the crack of the San Andreas Fault. If this section were to really let loose the entire village might disappear.

TJandTheBear said...

I hear it's rockin' and rollin' in Ventura today. Do tell!

Cinco-X said...

900sqft!? Wouldn't meet code for new construction

Cinco-X said...

We put a copper sink in our kitchen... Looks pretty good, but it's dark

Rob Dawg said...

Mrs Dawg and I have a rare disagreement. I don't want a metal sink. I don't want a ceramic sink. Will the marriage survive? Sure. As soon as I embrace my grave errors.

Rob Dawg said...

Best sink ever was in the washroom of the Worcester walk up. Soapstone. Scrub out a motorcycle cylinder head no problem. Delicate glasses? Soft touch. Black, no stains. Deep? All three of our rugby uniforms in one soak. Second tub perfect for brewing beer. Loved that sink.

Rob Dawg said...

Everything is fine. The gas fed fires are mostly out. The kittehs escaped from the rubble. It won't be more than a few weeks before the roads are clear. No big deal.

Okay. truth. I diddn't feel the 5.3 off the Islands, 25 miles. Mrs Dawg up the hill in Newbury Park felt a "roll" a dozen miles further away. This wasn't even on a known fault line. No doubt a "new" danger will be identified and our homeowners insurance will rise.

Lawyerliz said...

What's left?

Lawyerliz said...

Oh please, this will be a pimple on the butt of the fire and mud increases. You can't get earthquake insurance anyway.

Lawyerliz said...

Or so I was told by Kali ans.

Lawyerliz said...

What do you pay now, Dawg?
What do you think you'll pay in you next billing cycle?

LBD said...

Good morning!

Big snow here down graded from 6-8" to 1-3" and so far only a trace.

Nothing great going on in the jobs market. Wages up .08 cents that works out to a whooping $2.78 on the average unchanged work week of 34.5 hours.

I see Zippo says says the sales market is cold in Wrightwood.

Lawyerliz said...

Well, it didn't go down. More sad is the jobs added. Will Trump say this is his fault?

LBD said...

It's all BS all the time in politics. T will if anything will yell about the massive wage increase.

Snowing a bit harder.

Firemane said...

Elizabeth,

As expected, last month's NFP numbers were just a pull forward. You average Feb. and Mar. and the job market still appears to be on the same glide path. Setting aside the noise - this is 6 months holding at exactly 4.1 U3.

Total unemployed dropped to 6.5 million.

Discouraged workers (not looking because they don't think jobs are available) is 450k.

Participation rate has been moving sideways for roughly 4 years at this point. However, what isn't immediately obvious is that since the end of 2015, people HAVE been quietly returning to the labor force. The problem at this point is that it looks like those numbers that were both willing and able to return are likely exhausted.



Rob Dawg said...

Liz, one month outliers can be anything whether high or low. Even the number of fridays in any month can make a difference even February where the month may always have the same number but not always falling at the same time of the month. And the weather sucked for much of the country. Especially since construction employment was strangely strong through much of the winter. And what Firemane said about pull through.

Lawyerliz said...

Yep to both. However the part time who want full time are clearly employable and a source of workers. Also someone who has a pot conviction from long ago should be employable. Years ago, I noted that employment was low when. People with bad teeth were employed deali.g with people. Subsidy hint install 4 teeth in the front. Or 6.

LBD said...

I wonder how much of the elderly work is growing. Average SS is around $1,200. Does little to pay the bills to live.

I was down to looking for about mid 30's, going to AA meetings as a good sign of a person ready to engage life and wanting to work. Back in the late 90's. I am sure this mess has grown since then. Very few Grown ups around now days. So happy to be retired now over 17 tears.

Firemane said...

LBD,

Per Pew Research, since 2000, the % of those over 65 working part or full time has grown from roughly 12% to roughly 18%. During that same span, of those working the split of PT to FT has risen from roughly 1/2 to about 2/3.

What isn't as clear is the split between those who simply 'continue' to work, (because they CAN), versus those who continue or return to work because the MUST.

Considering the steadily declining overall health picture in the US, (life expectancy actually dropped slightly with last year's report from the CDC). I doubt the 65+ working crowd can climb too much higher.

I also am not sure how much the data is impacted by those at exactly age 65. At this point, in order to receive FULL SS benefits, everyone has to work until at least age 66. I have to wait until 67. But, all the data regarding 'retirement age' is still using age 65 as the boundary year.





Cinco-X said...

Soapstone

Cinco-X said...

👍

Cinco-X said...

Light snow here already... Expecting 1-2" before it turns to rain overnight

Firemane said...

Liz,

Based on the 1999-2001 behavior of U3 vs. U6, though there may be some wiggle room, they tend to move together, with U6 dropping about .2 for every .1 that U3 drops.

Mind you, back in 2000, U6 was running about a point lower (relative to U3) than it has since the recovery from the crash of 2009 happened. Some of this is market changes ... and some of it is likely related to the ACA. But, yes, it at least says it is possible that even if U3 is frozen, we might squeeze out some more productivity by U6 dropping another point.

My opinion is that this is highly unlikely ... I'd guess U6 won't drop below 7.7 again in my life time, but I could be wrong.

Even if that occurs, that maybe buys one more year before the pool of arriving labor is smaller than the pool of leaving labor.

The problem is this -- our best historical comparison of what happens at full employment is in 2000. BUT ... the was right when the last of the 'untapped' female population was entering the workforce, but more importantly, it was BEFORE the Boomers began their massive migration OUT of the workforce.

As a comparison:

2000 would be age 65 for those born in 1935.

Population growth per year:

1935 = +876,000
(it stayed about for another 2 years, then hit a million in 1938).

So, in round numbers, a million people were hitting retirement age during the early 2000s.

In 1947, population grew by 2.7 million and would stay at that level (or above) through 1964).

So, in 2012, the 'retirement drain' is TRIPLE what it was the last time we were at full employment. There's a big hole in the bottom of the labor pool, and the ONLY source way to equalize would be to INCREASE the number of immigrants (it'll be another 10 years before demographics cancels it out, though we're starting to move in the right direction finally). Instead, current administration is doing everything it can to minimize immigration.

No new workers.
No new production.
Recession.







LBD said...

If the jobs returned to a full 40 hr work week we would not need illegal immigrants and the rest could be filled with legal immigrants as needed. Plus moving people off of welfare is another pool of unused workers. IMO

Firemane said...

LBD,

If by welfare, you're referring to TANF, the latest numbers I can find (2014) there were only 1.007 million adults receiving TANF payments, and about 1/3 of them were working. So, not a big pool to draw from.

As for 40-hour week?!?

The BLS has only tracked hours on the Establishment Survey since 2006. The first ever reading was 34.2 in March of 2006. The most recent was 34.5.

In the 12 years it has been tracked the

lowest it EVER got was:
33.7 (June of 2009).
Highest ever:
34.6 (many months, most recently Dec. of 2015)

The problem is, the number is:

AVG. WEEKLY HOURS OF ALL EMPLOYEES

That means, the official number INCLUDES part-timers.

Given the range is so small - it's actually an almost completely useless stat, as it mostly just captures the ratio of full-time to part-time workers.


Lawyerliz said...

Unemployed black people are also a resource. How many discouraged workers are out there? Who could get encouraged? There could be more proud to city, and this time the workers could get 75% to catch up. CEos could make less.

Lawyerliz said...

Productivity

Lawyerliz said...

Avreed.

Lawyerliz said...

More pay would encourage some.

Lawyerliz said...

Oops Dow way down again.

LBD said...

If you had been around in the 70's it was not unusual for most to work 40hr a week jobs. Ladies where just entering the work force. Many I remember complained of excessive overtime. Sadly a lot of those jobs are gone. People just don't work as many hours anymore. Not unusual to receive food stamps, and other types of assistance while working part time jobs, especially unwed mothers with dads hiding in the back ground. Many know how to work the system and no one seems to care. The education you get being a small town landlord.

It would be interesting to see what the labor market would look like with most of the part time turned in to full time. IMO

Rob Dawg said...

New post. Trade imbalance.

Lawyerliz said...

Employment or trade
????