Thursday, September 13, 2007

#1 Again

None of these namby-pamby 100-200-300% increases in foreclosure activity. Ventura County is #1 with a bullet.

Ventura County Star:
Anyone wondering just how many Ventura County properties are being lost in the battered real estate market need only look at the foreclosure sales from the first half of 2007.

With 548 tallied through the second quarter, foreclosure sales have increased 784 percent compared with 62 in the first half of 2006.

It was the largest upswing among seven counties in the Southland region. Santa Barbara County's foreclosure sales rose 768 percent and Los Angeles County's jumped 675 percent.


Okay, 62 FCs in a population of 815,000 is just plain old noise it is so low but equally more than 1000/yr already is very alarming. I don't think a statue of St. Joesph buried in the yard is gonna get this job done. Time to go back to the olde religions. Anybody gotta spare realtor we can burn in the Wicca man?


aaron said...

and so am I. FIRST!

Sac RE Agent said...

congrats on being #1 dawg!

Rob Dawg said...

Sac RE,
You volunteering? ;-)

Nevermind, according to the USA Today article Sacramento is already burning.

H Simpson said...


Does that mean you are #1 in #2??

Are all the folks gathering on the courthouse steps for foreclosure auctions displaying those giant #1 fingers like at the Texas A&M games?

If misery loves company, you best go buy some extra coffee cake, as I am reading that the CFC employees are suing CFC since all their pension was in CFC stock (didn't anyone get a clue from Enron?).
That means when they get laid off, they cannot even take loans out using the equity in their retirement.
That is going to make things even worse.

Q said...

@H Simpson 8:49

When an employee is laid off they can no longer tak eloans from their retirement plan...regardless what investments are available (Co stock, mutual funds, etc). They can either roll it over to a new 401(k), leave it in the former employer's plan or roll to an IRA.

Loans are only available when an active employee. IRAs do not allow loans, either.

Rob Dawg said...

Only about 1/3rd of the plan was in CFC stock. With dollar cost averaging, employer matching, favorable pricing points, etc. I doubt they've seen a 15% drop in their balances and their actual loses far less.

Funny Circus Bears said...

I moved my CFC long stop up on this recent increase, ensuring profit.

I believe GS will not contract into my desired entry range ($175) prior to their earnings announcement, so I missed that boat. I may reconsider / raise my entry point.

At a P/E of 39, I think AAPL can be shorted again, but not yet.

Funny Circus Bears said...


I just read your blog and coverage of Crisp & Cole (Tu Crisp lol).


Rob Dawg said...

Apple is on a tear. Ive seen guidance from 175 to 210! If they produce a Christmas lowcost iMac the only play is to short MSFT but that's dangerous for a compnay that sits on cash.

Kasey said...

Read that countrywide borrowed another can this company keep borrowing and borrowing? Doesn't this show potential investors that they are weak? How can they repay this debt if they keep needing to borrow?

Lou Minatti said...

The illustration. Is that Judd Hirsch?

Lou Minatti said...


Microsoft is indeed sitting on billions. What have they produced with all this loot? Zune, Vista, MSN, and their most popular toy, a defective XBox.

Things are going mobile. Devices are getting smaller. I see a lot less demand for MSFT bloatware.

Funny Circus Bears said...

Greenspan: "I didn't get it..."

Peripheral Visionary said...

The new CFC line of credit is absolutely baffling to me. They've borrowed ($10BB original credit line?), borrowed ($2BB convertible), and now they're borrowing again ($12BB, but how reliable and from whom?) This is a sinking company, how can investors--and LENDERS--not see it?

Legion said...


the same way that they couldn't see that a lot of FB's shouldn't be borrowing more money...everybody thinks CFC is gonna make it.

Sac RE Agent said...

dawg, i'm surprised sac is still standing. seems like every third or fourth house is in foreclosure.

Rob Dawg said...

Being able to borrow is a meta-affirmation of the company. Nevermind the loans are costing them more than the offered products. They just need a little time to sweep the mess under the skirts of mama FDIC.

Sac RE, I honestly don't know what to say about places Sac, Merced, Fresno, BKfield. I mean they all have a function. Govt, Ag, Oil but still the housing market is so out of whack with what can besustained.

Com'on say it. EN is a nicer place without all the noise. I don't think anybody's been called a hypocrite for weeks.

Sac RE Agent said...

dawg, you're right, EN has been a nicer place lately. now if you can only get legion to lighten up with his anti agent rants. :-)

Legion said...

@sac RE agent

My apologies Sac:-) The fact that you are here tells me that you aren't the 'typical' real estate agent. I hope you are still doing well thru this housing mess.

Well I guess it's all the flip this house shows I've been watching, seems like most of the newer ones are about real estate agents or mortgage brokers that saw how well everyone was doing...

I mean, let's look at one from yesterday. Real estate agent, Florida, want to be the new Donald Trmpette (her exact words). She then goes on to price her home about 70K above comps (she said she spent more so she had to ask for more to cover her bills). That just shows you some of the intelligience some real estate agents have (not you)

Anyways, off to check in on the fat lady in debt spending 25% of ehr net income on food....

Legion said...

Dammit is offine!!!!

Sac RE Agent said...

Legion, I appreciate the words. I wish that business was better but it's tough right now.

Curious said...

Only about 1/3rd of the plan was in CFC stock.

If you can believe 1/10th of what is written on latest's post (scrolling to around the 28th of August), these people are feeling serious pain and they are saying that the price they are paying through their company match is based on 2Q price with a small discount. Again, if the posts are to be believed.

@sac re agent:
dawg, i'm surprised sac is still standing. seems like every third or fourth house is in foreclosure.

If I had to buy or sell a house right now in Sac, I'd use you or agent bubble, but c' know there are lots of stable neighborhoods in Sac to this day.

Would I buy, or try to sell, in Rocklin, Lincoln, West Sac, Elk Grove or North Natomas right now? Hell, no. These are all areas that were over built during the specuvestor disaster.

It hurts more established areas and those prices are down, but you don't see a bunch of foreclosures either. At least, not yet.

I agree, the specuvestor bubble areas are horendous(sp?) with tall brown lawn/weeds, but most other areas in Sac. don't look like this. I live in a subdivision of 200+ homes built in the 90's and there have been 4 foreclosures or short sales that I have been able to track. Troubling and worrisome with the possibility of more to come, but not horrible. Not good, but nothing like the ground zero areas like I mentioned above. For the record, this SD churned 2+ years ago, so most ARM's, if used, have already reset and been turned into fixed rate. I have a friend in Folsom who just turned her ARM (post divorce induced) into a higher than she wanted fixed rate but she can handle the payment. (Without child support. You'd be amazed how many women do without it. /rant.) : )
Com'on say it. EN is a nicer place without all the noise. I don't think anybody's been called a hypocrite for weeks.

I should just stop commenting and continue my learnin'. Rob, I think you should send a big bouquet of roses to whomever started CH.C.

I really like reading and learning from your blog and posters. Thank you.

My apologies for my stupidish posts but I really am trying to learn from y'all at the same time.

Sac RE Agent said...

Curious, it's nice of you to say you'd think of using me if you were interested in buying something in the Sac area. But the complete area is hurting.

I know of a couple that got a $100,000 price reduction in new construction in Folsom in a 5 minute conversation with the sales rep. They proudly told me the story but I didn't want to burst their bubble that they left money on the table since the sales agent agreed to their huge request immediately, since that builder had 22 homes ready to move in within 2 weeks. Even The Republic of Davis is hurting. Sales have stagnanted and there are some signs of prices coming down.