Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Differing Perspectives
As Proposed: As the architect envisioned: As the Planning Dept insisted: As the crew constructed: As the Sales Dept described: What the customer really wanted:
Well, not everyone can have an Anya walking about in nothing but fishnets in their neighborhood. While she was flipping her house over Johnnie Walker she discovered she had 1081081081234 garments resembling fishnets and flipped again.
Yes, an original late 50s Levitt house. The early 50s versions were even more modest. You cannot buld them like that anymore. The planners won't allow it, the municipality cannot afford it and the builders want more profit than they offer. Oh, and the would be social engineers masquarading is environmentalist or conservationists would object because they are wasteful sprawl. Did I mention the schoold distict or neighbors?
That's my point. We have got exactly the housing we ask for and unfortunately deserve.
The architect picture is the Gehry "Inside Out" House in Santa Monica. I used to live down the street.
The planner design review recommendation is a reinforced WW-II German coastal defense bunker.
There should be a version of this for the markets. "As the markets see it", "as Larry Kudlow sees it", "as Ben Bernanke sees it", and "as it really is". The market's detachment from reality is being fully realized today as it goes to record highs on news of a potential merger that might happen six months in the future. Say, has the $8BB in funding for that been lined up yet? *crickets*
Meanwhile, Citi (among others) is confirming real-life present-day losses, but the markets can't be bothered with that, not while indices are at all-time highs. It's back to Bad News Ignore Mode™. I'm following the old wisdom of not fighting the tape, although I have a feeling that my gold positions will be hit when (not if) the rest of the market comes down, so I'm watching the stops.
Yes, I don't even "get" the market irrationality. This must truly be that point where the markets can remain irrational longer than the sane can remain solvent. I swear, it is hard. My big head keeps saying "wait" and my heart and 'nads keep screaming get a little of this sucka!
I will not, I WILL NOT deal with the financials. Their stocks are so artificial I won't endorse the manipulation by participating.
I passed on a massive (~250%) gold play three weeks ago. I was hesitant. While I didn't technically "lose" I was stuck with dollars and they have the gold. I lost. Gold forward however, remember coming from a loser, doesn't look good. The Chicomms are teetering on a classic overexpansion and the industrial uses are slowing and the graddaddy of liquidity squeezes is coming.
I think I sort of understand the market. If instead of thinking about looking for good investments, you think about looking for least bad investments, the market going up can be explained. If we go into recession interest rates drop and bonds will not attract money. If we go into inflation, bonds are a bad deal. Stagflation, bonds are a really bad deal. Real estate is still overpriced. Europe may be facing the same problems we are. Emerging markets are very risky. Where are investors going to put all the baby boomer money floating around?
I stand corrected--the market has not gone up on extreme exuberance over a medium-size deal which may never happen, they have gone up on the hopes for the return of the Magical Rate Cut Fairy, which sneaks in in the middle of the night and leaves magical market appreciation under pillows of good little investors.
Forget about income statements and balance sheets and all that old fuddy-duddy stuff, we're back into The New Economy™ circa 2000. The markets are officially into Shanghai market territory, extremely bullish because, well, everyone else is extremely bullish. The contrarians a few weeks ago were saying that the markets were going to go up because too many investors were bearish, and they were right. Now the bears are back in hiding and the market is overwhelmingly bullish, and which direction would that suggest . . .
PV, To bolster your observations: "NASDQ closes at highest level since Feb 2000."
Scared yet? I'm not normally tinfoil but I gotta tell you I have to keep shaking off the idea that NASDQ March 2000 was the -warning- of the really bad things to come 7 years later.
WARNING, really bad language follows.
Steven Kim of Citibank was just on the financial misdirection network talking up the home builders. The FUCKING homebuilders! Who the shitting hell is this asshole trying to screw? His Goddamned position was the last three times the FUCKING homebuilders went down this much their next quarter was very positive for the stock. He then stood up, laid his "junk" on the chopping block and arrogantly proclaimed that in '91 housing starts went down 44% and signalled a buy and gee, this time housing starts are down 44%. I say cut his junk off and stuff them in his mouth and leave him to rot on a pike at the intersection of Wall and Water Streets as a first step.
The "where is money safe" question is a good one. There's no easy answer, because the extreme deluge of liquidity has driven the prices of everything up. The question is not where there is the most potential for the upside, but where there is the most risk on the downside--and that would be equities and mortgage securities.
Commodities are overbought, yes (and that includes gold), and the dollar is very vulnerable, and even money market accounts aren't safe. But their downside is much more limited than equities right now--and the contrarian wisdom is that the dollar is due for a bounce. Treasuries are also vulnerable, although they tend to move in very limited ways relative to other securities, so any downside is going to be relatively small.
Dawg, looking back at a one time occurance in '91 and then predicting the future on that event, is just beautiful.
On a lighter note, whenever you put together you priceline of what the appraiser sees, lender sees, etc., please add a line in there for what Casey sees. I miss getting any updates on the crazy guy. Does anyone have any updates on him?
I think gold is going to crash when people need to cover losing leveraged positions. I've been wrong but we very well may be entering a strange days period for a short time.
Treasuries are a good idea for most. Inflaton indexed may work better if we can get honest inflation data. You can "invest" in a 0% yielding CD denominated in Yen or several others. I continue to be amazed by Aus and NZ dollars rising.
There's a lot of realignment waaay overdue. Krona CDs? I don't know.
I also miss updates on the Failed Specu-Vestor. He was one of the best leading indicators I'm aware of--he was ahead of the foreclosure curve by a good six months. We need to put a tracking collar on him and find out where he goes so we can know who to short.
When I needed humor, I just asked "what did Casey do today that was stupid" and sure enough... there was some new low.
It was always a nice pick-me-up to think no matter what I did that day, Casey had done something worse that very day.
Anyone still in contact? It would be interesting to see what he's done. I assume G left him for good - he did more than enough to force her hand. I'd be interested to see what he's doing for a living now, he talked about getting a regular job... fat chance of that, but I'd love to see how he's justifying it these days.
At 3:05 PM, Property Flopper said... It was always a nice pick-me-up to think no matter what I did that day, Casey had done something worse that very day. I agree 100% (or maybe even 110% :)
A friend of mine and I are currently doing DD on a nice little wine store we think could do quite well in the coming recession. Tucked away in a leafy wealthy New York semi-suburb and ripe for high margin cheap vodka sales when things REALLY go south.
I suspected as much - mispelled plebeian, but appreciated the Wiki reference in the discovery process... In Ancient Rome, the plebs were the general body of Roman citizens, distinct from the privileged class of the patricians. A member of the plebs was known as a plebeian (Latin: plebeius). The term is used more commonly today to refer to one who is in the middle or lower class, or who appears to be; however, in Rome, plebeians could become quite wealthy and influential.
I passed on a nice Krispy Kreme (KKD) bounce today. Down ~15% Friday on bad earnings, I guessed it was an overreaction and was right -- bounced back about 5% today (NOBODY makes donuts like Krispy Kreme.) Walgreen's (WAG) might be a similar play: down today 14% on poor earnings, seems a bit of an overreaction. I don't think they're going out of business anytime soon. Maybe a 5% bounceback tomorrow?
Also looking into ERO, a Euro fund. But I don't like getting hit with that big short-term cap gain every time I go in and out of it, wish I could get a Euro-denominated sweep money market for times when my account is in cash.
Just stumbled across three fun new toys recently: SDS (ultrashort SP500 ETF), DXD (ultrashort Dow ETF) and QID (ultrashort QQQ ETF). Ultrashort meaning they replicate 2x the inverse movement of the given index. QQQ goes down 2% = QID goes up 4%. Nice way to play the short side without getting squeezed into covering.
These Krispy Kreme limited-edition pumpkin shaped donuts should be just the thing to give the stock a healthy bounce. And just in time for Halloween. That's marketing for you. Housing crash got you down? Negative amortization giving you the blues? Eat your troubles away with some highly sugared pumpkin-shaped carbs.
WINSTON-SALEM, NC Oct 01 2007 /PRNewswire FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Cast a sweet spell over your neighborhood ghosts and goblins this year with Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc! From carving festive jack-o-lanterns to hosting costume parties at school or in the office, Krispy Kreme pumpkin shaped doughnuts are a delicious addition to all of your Halloween activities. These classic, bewitching, yeast-raised doughnuts are coated with creamy orange icing and stamped with a jack-o-lantern. There is no sweeter way to trick-or- treat your way into the spirit of Halloween. "We are delighted to offer our customers Krispy Kreme pumpkin shaped doughnuts again this year as a fun alternative to traditional candy," said Stan Parker, Senior Vice President of Marketing at Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. "They are a hit with neighborhood trick-or-treaters and perfect for all of your Halloween gatherings."
I love the KKD donuts, but the stock is a total stinker. It's a terribly managed company, management grew the company too quickly and it's now loaded down with debt and with underperforming locations. I'm not sure when they'll make the turnaround. Dunkin D is growing faster than KKD and even Starbucks here in the East, who would have thought . . .
Hmm, speaking of contrarian plays, I wonder about ice cream. Alcohol is the classic recession-proof investment, but I think any business that offers a little "escapism" with a relatively low cost could profit. Ice cream, chocolate, maybe even good-old-fashioned movie theaters--lost the house and the $5,000 home entertainment system? Go to the movies.
Another angle would be to ask what unemployed people spend the money that they don't have on. Alcohol again, but also TV, surfing the Internet . . . and playing computer games. If only computer game companies weren't so poorly managed (read: Take2). And, of course, Blizzard is owned by Viacom . . .
If any of you professional bad smell detectors could have a look at this property and enlighten me of whats going on.....
Sold in 2005 for $285K. Then it sold in August for $247K (bizarre) and now the bank tries to get $345K? Is that sale for $247K the auction where nobody bid and it went to the bank?
Don't know about ice cream, but I would not jump at movies as it is a different environment from the 30s or 90s.
All those Casey folks who take the 3 grand to turn in the keys & walk away are renting, but still have the 42" HDTV plasma they got at Sam's Club with sweet cashback.
The money they save on tickets and $7 tubs of popcorn pay for jaba juice wheat shots and porn on the cable box..
All those Casey folks who take the 3 grand to turn in the keys & walk away are renting, but still have the 42" HDTV plasma they got at Sam's Club with sweet cashback.
Don't forget the Chrysler 300s with the sweet Rimz. The Casey's can either struggle to pay for their dinohouse, or stay current on their credit cards and auto payments and rent and keep their lifestyle.
Rent and keep the plasma and sweet ride, or pay the mortgage and trips to Macaroni Grill. Hmm. With Congress eliminating the income taxes on all that sweet HELOC money written off by the lenders, it's a no brainer.
Ahh, but the credit cards are still there. And, of course, they were keeping "current" on the credit cards by stepping up to the home equity ATM. Once the ATM gets locked up, keeping current on the credit cards and car payments comes into question.
Of course, they'll just declare bankruptcy, while they stash all the toys at the in-laws' place. But they'll still be living beyond their means, so once the home is gone, and the credit cards are gone, and no one will lend them money, they will (finally) start selling some of the toys for cash to pay for the food and rent.
Hmm, I wonder what effect all of that will have on the American economy. Probably none, I'm sure, because after all, the problems in the mortgage market are contained™.
41 comments:
First I must say that I like what Sales described more than what the customer wanted.
Hmmm, the proposed design rather reminds me of one of Anya's open windows.
You might have SECOND thoughts after you realize the Sales Dept priced it like that as well.
Well, not everyone can have an Anya walking about in nothing but fishnets in their neighborhood.
While she was flipping her house over Johnnie Walker she discovered she had 1081081081234 garments resembling fishnets and flipped again.
That's eerily similar to software development.
@ Akubi:
Sweet! Cash back at close!
Is that a Levitt house on the bottom?
Yes, an original late 50s Levitt house. The early 50s versions were even more modest. You cannot buld them like that anymore. The planners won't allow it, the municipality cannot afford it and the builders want more profit than they offer. Oh, and the would be social engineers masquarading is environmentalist or conservationists would object because they are wasteful sprawl. Did I mention the schoold distict or neighbors?
That's my point. We have got exactly the housing we ask for and unfortunately deserve.
The architect picture is the Gehry "Inside Out" House in Santa Monica. I used to live down the street.
The planner design review recommendation is a reinforced WW-II German coastal defense bunker.
There should be a version of this for the markets. "As the markets see it", "as Larry Kudlow sees it", "as Ben Bernanke sees it", and "as it really is". The market's detachment from reality is being fully realized today as it goes to record highs on news of a potential merger that might happen six months in the future. Say, has the $8BB in funding for that been lined up yet? *crickets*
Meanwhile, Citi (among others) is confirming real-life present-day losses, but the markets can't be bothered with that, not while indices are at all-time highs. It's back to Bad News Ignore Mode™. I'm following the old wisdom of not fighting the tape, although I have a feeling that my gold positions will be hit when (not if) the rest of the market comes down, so I'm watching the stops.
PV,
I'll do your suggestion.
Yes, I don't even "get" the market irrationality. This must truly be that point where the markets can remain irrational longer than the sane can remain solvent. I swear, it is hard. My big head keeps saying "wait" and my heart and 'nads keep screaming get a little of this sucka!
I will not, I WILL NOT deal with the financials. Their stocks are so artificial I won't endorse the manipulation by participating.
I passed on a massive (~250%) gold play three weeks ago. I was hesitant. While I didn't technically "lose" I was stuck with dollars and they have the gold. I lost. Gold forward however, remember coming from a loser, doesn't look good. The Chicomms are teetering on a classic overexpansion and the industrial uses are slowing and the graddaddy of liquidity squeezes is coming.
I think I sort of understand the market. If instead of thinking about looking for good investments, you think about looking for least bad investments, the market going up can be explained. If we go into recession interest rates drop and bonds will not attract money. If we go into inflation, bonds are a bad deal. Stagflation, bonds are a really bad deal. Real estate is still overpriced. Europe may be facing the same problems we are. Emerging markets are very risky. Where are investors going to put all the baby boomer money floating around?
I stand corrected--the market has not gone up on extreme exuberance over a medium-size deal which may never happen, they have gone up on the hopes for the return of the Magical Rate Cut Fairy, which sneaks in in the middle of the night and leaves magical market appreciation under pillows of good little investors.
Forget about income statements and balance sheets and all that old fuddy-duddy stuff, we're back into The New Economy™ circa 2000. The markets are officially into Shanghai market territory, extremely bullish because, well, everyone else is extremely bullish. The contrarians a few weeks ago were saying that the markets were going to go up because too many investors were bearish, and they were right. Now the bears are back in hiding and the market is overwhelmingly bullish, and which direction would that suggest . . .
PV,
To bolster your observations: "NASDQ closes at highest level since Feb 2000."
Scared yet? I'm not normally tinfoil but I gotta tell you I have to keep shaking off the idea that NASDQ March 2000 was the -warning- of the really bad things to come 7 years later.
WARNING, really bad language follows.
Steven Kim of Citibank was just on the financial misdirection network talking up the home builders. The FUCKING homebuilders! Who the shitting hell is this asshole trying to screw? His Goddamned position was the last three times the FUCKING homebuilders went down this much their next quarter was very positive for the stock. He then stood up, laid his "junk" on the chopping block and arrogantly proclaimed that in '91 housing starts went down 44% and signalled a buy and gee, this time housing starts are down 44%. I say cut his junk off and stuff them in his mouth and leave him to rot on a pike at the intersection of Wall and Water Streets as a first step.
The "where is money safe" question is a good one. There's no easy answer, because the extreme deluge of liquidity has driven the prices of everything up. The question is not where there is the most potential for the upside, but where there is the most risk on the downside--and that would be equities and mortgage securities.
Commodities are overbought, yes (and that includes gold), and the dollar is very vulnerable, and even money market accounts aren't safe. But their downside is much more limited than equities right now--and the contrarian wisdom is that the dollar is due for a bounce. Treasuries are also vulnerable, although they tend to move in very limited ways relative to other securities, so any downside is going to be relatively small.
Dawg, looking back at a one time occurance in '91 and then predicting the future on that event, is just beautiful.
On a lighter note, whenever you put together you priceline of what the appraiser sees, lender sees, etc., please add a line in there for what Casey sees. I miss getting any updates on the crazy guy. Does anyone have any updates on him?
PV,
Many truths.
I think gold is going to crash when people need to cover losing leveraged positions. I've been wrong but we very well may be entering a strange days period for a short time.
Treasuries are a good idea for most. Inflaton indexed may work better if we can get honest inflation data. You can "invest" in a 0% yielding CD denominated in Yen or several others. I continue to be amazed by Aus and NZ dollars rising.
There's a lot of realignment waaay overdue. Krona CDs? I don't know.
I also miss updates on the Failed Specu-Vestor. He was one of the best leading indicators I'm aware of--he was ahead of the foreclosure curve by a good six months. We need to put a tracking collar on him and find out where he goes so we can know who to short.
I hate to admit it, but I miss Casey too...
When I needed humor, I just asked "what did Casey do today that was stupid" and sure enough... there was some new low.
It was always a nice pick-me-up to think no matter what I did that day, Casey had done something worse that very day.
Anyone still in contact? It would be interesting to see what he's done. I assume G left him for good - he did more than enough to force her hand. I'd be interested to see what he's doing for a living now, he talked about getting a regular job... fat chance of that, but I'd love to see how he's justifying it these days.
At 3:05 PM, Property Flopper said...
It was always a nice pick-me-up to think no matter what I did that day, Casey had done something worse that very day.
I agree 100% (or maybe even 110% :)
Someone call his cell phone.
Yes, Casey was our Cassandra. Where has he gone?
Watching Paul Kangas and amazed that guy is still alive. He clearly eats pork.
Perhaps I was more touched by Animal Farm than your average little kid reader.
The housing bubble has clearly burst and is boring now.
What next?
Porn is mildly boring too, but I plan to update Zillow Book soon.
Invest in booze and other vice. It always does great during a recession.
Like '29?
A friend of mine and I are currently doing DD on a nice little wine store we think could do quite well in the coming recession. Tucked away in a leafy wealthy New York semi-suburb and ripe for high margin cheap vodka sales when things REALLY go south.
Whenever I read Vanity Fair I discover how much new pure vodka I've missed out on thanks to my plebian beer tendencies.
I suspected as much - mispelled plebeian, but appreciated the Wiki reference in the discovery process...
In Ancient Rome, the plebs were the general body of Roman citizens, distinct from the privileged class of the patricians. A member of the plebs was known as a plebeian (Latin: plebeius). The term is used more commonly today to refer to one who is in the middle or lower class, or who appears to be; however, in Rome, plebeians could become quite wealthy and influential.
I haven't been here in quite a while, but this is a truly witty post!
:)
I have missed this blog.
http://confessionsofamadprofessor.blogspot.com
April
Thanks Apriil. I try and have lots of good help.
I passed on a nice Krispy Kreme (KKD) bounce today. Down ~15% Friday on bad earnings, I guessed it was an overreaction and was right -- bounced back about 5% today (NOBODY makes donuts like Krispy Kreme.) Walgreen's (WAG) might be a similar play: down today 14% on poor earnings, seems a bit of an overreaction. I don't think they're going out of business anytime soon. Maybe a 5% bounceback tomorrow?
Also looking into ERO, a Euro fund. But I don't like getting hit with that big short-term cap gain every time I go in and out of it, wish I could get a Euro-denominated sweep money market for times when my account is in cash.
Just stumbled across three fun new toys recently: SDS (ultrashort SP500 ETF), DXD (ultrashort Dow ETF) and QID (ultrashort QQQ ETF). Ultrashort meaning they replicate 2x the inverse movement of the given index. QQQ goes down 2% = QID goes up 4%. Nice way to play the short side without getting squeezed into covering.
These Krispy Kreme limited-edition pumpkin shaped donuts should be just the thing to give the stock a healthy bounce. And just in time for Halloween. That's marketing for you. Housing crash got you down? Negative amortization giving you the blues? Eat your troubles away with some highly sugared pumpkin-shaped carbs.
WINSTON-SALEM, NC Oct 01 2007 /PRNewswire FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Cast a sweet spell over your neighborhood ghosts and goblins this year with Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc! From carving festive jack-o-lanterns to hosting costume parties at school or in the office, Krispy Kreme pumpkin shaped doughnuts are a delicious addition to all of your Halloween activities. These classic, bewitching, yeast-raised doughnuts are coated with creamy orange icing and stamped with a jack-o-lantern. There is no sweeter way to trick-or- treat your way into the spirit of Halloween. "We are delighted to offer our customers Krispy Kreme pumpkin shaped doughnuts again this year as a fun alternative to traditional candy," said Stan Parker, Senior Vice President of Marketing at Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. "They are a hit with neighborhood trick-or-treaters and perfect for all of your Halloween gatherings."
Pleather Murse, might want to check out SRS, ultrashort real estate ETF.
I love the KKD donuts, but the stock is a total stinker. It's a terribly managed company, management grew the company too quickly and it's now loaded down with debt and with underperforming locations. I'm not sure when they'll make the turnaround. Dunkin D is growing faster than KKD and even Starbucks here in the East, who would have thought . . .
Hmm, speaking of contrarian plays, I wonder about ice cream. Alcohol is the classic recession-proof investment, but I think any business that offers a little "escapism" with a relatively low cost could profit. Ice cream, chocolate, maybe even good-old-fashioned movie theaters--lost the house and the $5,000 home entertainment system? Go to the movies.
Another angle would be to ask what unemployed people spend the money that they don't have on. Alcohol again, but also TV, surfing the Internet . . . and playing computer games. If only computer game companies weren't so poorly managed (read: Take2). And, of course, Blizzard is owned by Viacom . . .
If any of you professional bad smell detectors could have a look at this property and enlighten me of whats going on.....
Sold in 2005 for $285K. Then it sold in August for $247K (bizarre) and now the bank tries to get $345K? Is that sale for $247K the auction where nobody bid and it went to the bank?
Zillow
Realtor
MLS
7:28 PV
Don't know about ice cream, but I would not jump at movies as it is a different environment from the 30s or 90s.
All those Casey folks who take the 3 grand to turn in the keys & walk away are renting, but still have the 42" HDTV plasma they got at Sam's Club with sweet cashback.
The money they save on tickets and $7 tubs of popcorn pay for jaba juice wheat shots and porn on the cable box..
H.
Is anyone there...?
In regards to wheat shots and p0rn, Anya flipped her property again.
Dawg,
Will you be participating in the October 4 International Bloggers day for a free Burma?
Sweet deal: Burmese reports that those who got arrested by just watching the protests can go free if their homes come and pay a deposit of 200,000 kyats (about US$ 200).
Older Post Home
All those Casey folks who take the 3 grand to turn in the keys & walk away are renting, but still have the 42" HDTV plasma they got at Sam's Club with sweet cashback.
Don't forget the Chrysler 300s with the sweet Rimz. The Casey's can either struggle to pay for their dinohouse, or stay current on their credit cards and auto payments and rent and keep their lifestyle.
Rent and keep the plasma and sweet ride, or pay the mortgage and trips to Macaroni Grill. Hmm. With Congress eliminating the income taxes on all that sweet HELOC money written off by the lenders, it's a no brainer.
Ahh, but the credit cards are still there. And, of course, they were keeping "current" on the credit cards by stepping up to the home equity ATM. Once the ATM gets locked up, keeping current on the credit cards and car payments comes into question.
Of course, they'll just declare bankruptcy, while they stash all the toys at the in-laws' place. But they'll still be living beyond their means, so once the home is gone, and the credit cards are gone, and no one will lend them money, they will (finally) start selling some of the toys for cash to pay for the food and rent.
Hmm, I wonder what effect all of that will have on the American economy. Probably none, I'm sure, because after all, the problems in the mortgage market are contained™.
Looks like Homeless guy is part of a large group of squatters.
http://www.myfoxboston.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail?contentId=4528255&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=VSTY&pageId=1.1.1
Post a Comment