Friday, September 14, 2007

410 Avocado New Price Point


Talk about wasting my time. Countrywide is still trying to sell my Koi Farm (w/free house). Unfortunately they are still pricing like it is 2005. The latest ploy? An online "auction." Auction kinda sorta. Opening bid is still $200k above my eventual purchase price and there's a reserve price. WTF is this sale technique? I can go to the listing agent and submit my $450k offer with no muss, no fuss and a quick answer. Instead they want me to submit a blind bid againsy a reserve price and wait to see if I am outbid or rejected in two weeks? Note to CFC: I have money, you don't. This is not your game, it is mine and you had damn well better get a whole lot smarter real fast or you won't even have a seat at the table in a few months.
Auction here. Decription provided: Great potential for this this property located in exclusive area of Camarillo known as Las Posas Estates. Country feel, but close to shopping, 101 fwy and coast. Just under 1 acre of flat, usable land on a private drive lined with mature eucalyptus trees. Could be $$$ estate!

Could indeed be a $$$ estate. too bad they are asking $$$$$. Oh and their "private drive is a "shared" driveway with the neighbor.

This is my canary in the coal mine for CFC prospects. When we first looked it was because it was one of the highest priced holdings on their REO list. Then we laughed at the condition and price. Then we noted that CFC was not paying attention. We applauded when they cleaned up the place and secured it and lowered the price. Obviously somebody "up the hill" got the word and made this a priority. Now after a hopeful burst we see the slide back into the old business practices. Obviously the disposal team at CFC is not yet operating in the best interests of the stockholders. I understand. They are overworked and cannot get enough staff up to speed fast enough to stay ahead of last months 15.4% m-o-m increase in FCs in the portfolio nevermind have enough already for the 176% y-o-y increase. Still the shareholders need more cash and fewer houses on the balance sheet and this puppy sticks out for several reasons. Cut $150k now and $2k per day until there is interest. $2000 per day? Yes, you have to understand that prices in the area went up $1000/day every day for several years. They need to get out in front of the great unwinding. FCB and Legion can discuss the trading potential. Anything breaching the low 20s is going to make nearly whole a lot of speculators who are now nervous seein how low it can go. I was fascinated by the Oct 15.00 and 17.50 puts and particularly the low price of the 15s. Not investment advice, never is but...

16 comments:

sid_finster said...

the whole first murst thing is silly

Jim said...

How about that auction company wanting to charge you $20,000 for the privledge of making the offer through them?

No wonder they aren't getting any bids!!!

Rob Dawg said...

Yeah, its all fun and games until our largest mortgage company jumps the shark. Then it's hilarious and profitable.

Rob Dawg said...

Jim,
I didn't even bother to look at the terms. $20k?

Back in March I suggested absquatulation for this stage of the bubble correction. You've called the later stage I think correctly. Disintermediation. I'm just not paying clerks percentages.

Legion said...

@Rob

Trading potential? CFC is going down the toilet long term. you don't keep borrowing and borrowing to stay afloat in the hopes that things will turn around. Anyone see the similarity? CFC as an entity is acting just like all the FB's we make fun of that kept borrowing more and more, taking out equity...at some point, the ride stops, and you can't borrow anymore. When that happens...well..just take a look at all the Fb's declaring bankruptcy . CFC is already having trouble and we haven't even seen the tsunami wave of ArM borrowers on the horizon.

Peripheral Visionary said...

I wonder just how much longer it will be before the market figures out how serious the trouble is that CFC is in. They didn't get the clue on this last round of emergency funding (their third round); maybe when CFC goes to the market for a fourth round of emergency funding (two, three months from now?) they might start figuring it out.

And no stocks or real estate investments for me--I did the market trading thing once, but after a couple of years I essentially came out flat. The traders have to realize that they're up against institutional traders who have full time plus to devote to their job, and who have far more experience and--critically--far more information than the guy on the street. Not a balanced playing field.

TK said...

I guess you guys don't see the $23 Billion pumped into CFC in the last two weeks as a positive. Cough.

Why don't they just do one of those round robin auctions? Worked for Casey Serin.

Funny Circus Bears said...

Legion, enjoy your gains and chime in if you start trading again and I'll share my positions.

Good luck!

Pleather Murse said...

The traders have to realize that they're up against institutional traders who have full time plus to devote to their job, and who have far more experience and--critically--far more information than the guy on the street.

Apples/oranges. Individual traders are not in competition with them. They are also not subject to the institutional pressures of pro traders, who often *have* to be in the market all the time or answer to their bosses. Trading one's own money and on a vastly smaller scale gives flexibility to the individual investor who can wait for the market to come to him. We can also grab opportunities that would be considered of negligible value to the big boys. When you're trading a miltibillion dollar account your picture of the market and your strategies are very different.

Steve said...

How much is your budget for fixing things besides the Koi pond?

Have you included some Feung Shey (sp) sessions?

segfault said...

Have you included some Feung Shey (sp) sessions?

If you're following the "Flipping Out" (on Bravo TV) mantra, you'll need masseuses (for yourself and your dogs), pet psychics, cat acupuncture, 2 trips to Starbucks and one to El Pollo Loco every day, and a paid staff... I'm amazed that the guy is able to stay afloat, especially when he hires people to do every bit of labor on the homes, and hires other people to run his personal errands.

Legion said...

@FCB

Thanks
I'm actually going to see some relatives in NM next week. Maybe do some real gambling at a casino lol. Good luck to you too!

@Pleather Murse

Very well said, it is our ability to get in and out of the market quickly that makes it easier for us to profit. Selling 100 shares at a certain price is one thing, selling 1 million shares moves the price.

Pleather Murse said...

There's also something about fund managers being more concerned with promoting their funds and bringing in new money inflows (customers) than with focusing solely on maximizing gains. I don't have the stats handy but many institutional investors do worse than the indices -- in many cases an individual would be better off just putting money into an ETF. Funds that do outperform the market, like some hedge funds, need to strictly limit how much money can come in and (if they're honest) will close to new investors if they feel that they can't use maximal strategies with those excess funds. Naturally the bosses are very reluctant to ever close a fund to new investors.

I've been reading "Stock Market Wizards," ed. by Jack Schwager, which consists of a series of interviews with big-time traders with phenomenal track records. It really provides a lot of insight into the mindset required to do this kind of job.

The_Scum said...

Rob, you have to keep this auction link active and available. Since you revealed the status of this eyesore pig the response has been FANTASTIC!

Clean the pig and apply lipstick, drop the pig's price, 'auction' the pig. I'm guessing the next step is fail miserably!

What a FUCKING GREAT SHOW!

On another note. I covered my DSL and LEN shorts today. Hah! Now I have to figure tax strategies and mitigation with when I sell a losing position or two (unless they become winners). I just don't trust the FED and I'm expecting rate cuts and a magical return to Goldilocks bounce.

After that RTG (return to goldilocks) bounce I'll short again and may add some CFC shorts.

And pleather? The only stock market wizard I trust is at:

www.billcara.com

Local veiw from Vegas....house next to me foreclosed last month...no pool so no mosquitos but yes the lawn is brown and crunchy, except for the weed growing where I piss on it. Occasionally people drop by the foreclosed house (once per week) but I have no idea wtf they are doing. House on the other side owned by Clownifornians as a vaction home. Had live people there for less than a month in the year I've lived here. House next to it (two down from me) was for sale when I moved here and now has a for rent sign. Owners overpaid at $300k in 2004. Asking rent is $1300 for 1700 sq ft of house. $1300 a month rent and they paid $300k but couldn't sell asking $309k for at least 8 months (maybe it was for sale longer I don't know) They are bleeding and getting fucked. The heavily sexed menstrating borrowing? There has to be a term somewhere there. A FKB...fucking kotexed borrower?


Thanks Rob! This auction is GREAT!

I'm loving it!

The_Scum said...

One more anecdotal about the foreclosure next door....the guy stopped his 'lawn service' and even watering the lawn a couple months before he got booted out. Why was he having his lawn 'serviced' right until almost the bitter end? He isn't crippled. He also took the family on a vacation to Disneyland one month before moving. July = Disneyland and August = foreclosed.

So in the face of financial devastation cut all housing related expenses and take the wife and 3 kids to DISNEYLAND!

God Bless America.

Bill said...

I don't think the "rent it out" strategy works either.

Not just house prices, but rents are dropping fast here in flyover country.

Here a 4 bedroom house that rented for $1800/month 2 years ago now costs you $1200/month.

>Asking rent is $1300 for 1700 sq ft of house.