Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
The thing I don't get about the railheads: They say they like the NY metro area because they can travel where they want to go by rail. So why aren't the railheads rushing to move there it's transportation nirvana?
@Lou, I believe in high speed rail and decent public transport options for those who can't ride or walk to work. To avoid conflict, let's focus on something we can all agree upon.
Rail transit is the pergraniteel of any city. How can you be "world class" without it? Complete collective insanity. Planners get infected with the edifice complex and electeds love nothing better than ribbon cutting ceromonies. You can't have either with a cheap effective bus network.
It's running on tracks that were laid in the 19th century, and thus aren't suitable for high-speed trains.
The idea that people must get on an airplane or drive a car for a trip of 300 miles or less is pretty ridiculous when you think about it.
There's areas where bullet trains could really make money, and sooner or later, will. (Unless Buick starts making those cool flying cars we used to see George Jetson driving).
The idea that people must get on an airplane or drive a car for a trip of 300 miles or less is pretty ridiculous when you think about it.
I do agree that is pretty ridiculous to drive from downtown to downtown over such a distance, and it would be more convenient to have a high-speed train. I also agree that our rail infrastructure has deteriorated except for a few lines of serious importance.
The problem is that for most people who need to get from one city to another, few are going downtown to downtown. They are going from one suburb to another.
The majority of Americans desire personal transportation. Sure, they may say they want rail, but when it comes to actually paying for it and using it on a regular basis? Forget it. Even in Europe, where so many Americans marvel at the efficient rail system. Do you know that the vast majority of European commuters are just like us and get to work by car, even with gas at $7/gallon? You can see this in every country as affluence spreads.
Personal transportation isn't going away, it will become the preferred method of getting from Point A to Point B throughout the world. Once fuel price reach a certain point, we'll switch to another method of powering our vehicles.
@Lou, This commentary suggest that we clearly have some geographical differences: "Buses are far cheaper to operate and provide more flexibility. Why the light rail orgy, when it is clearly an inefficient money pit?" Marin County screwed themselves via the anti-Bart B.S. and now has the worst f-ing traffic in the Bay Area (which is in the top 10 list of the country, I believe). With decent trains one can bypass traffic. Why take the bus when you're stuck in in the same gridlock as everyone else? There's no incentive! Given Marin's NIMBY crap, we're spending a shitload of money widening the highway which will need to be continually widened forever unless some folks get their heads out of their a$$es.
Build the rails and stations to and where people actually want to go.
Where you are is probably a lot like where I am, at least when it comes to commuting patterns. I work in a nondescript office park. You may work in a nondescript office building. Chances are it's one of many spread throughout a large region. The solution you are proposing would require many new rail lines and many new stations, each one serving not many people.
The fact is, most of us do not work in downtowns.
Marin County screwed themselves via the anti-Bart B.S. and now has the worst f-ing traffic in the Bay Area (which is in the top 10 list of the country, I believe).
The worst traffic in Marin County I've encountered is some traffic lights in Mill Valley. 101, OTOH, from SFO to Redwood City, sucks ass. I've been stuck there many times when I was out there on business trips for my old company. There's a rail line paralleling 101, but most of the people prefer getting to work via 101, despite the traffic.
So why is it that rail-friendly Europeans prefer to commute by car, just as Americans do?
Mill Valley is nothing in comparison to San Rafael! "So why is it that rail-friendly Europeans prefer to commute by car, just as Americans do?" Huh? What Europeans?
This is all a short term issue. Long term most of us are going to work from home. No reason for accountants, IT folks, management etc to have to work in one building if one has the correct infrastructure. And there is plenty of fibre in place to handle the loads.
Seeing how Americans love to have a home with grass to cut, it gets increasingly difficult have rail service work for them. I marvel at Hong Kong's subway system where I can go anywhere, but that at wonderful freak of public transit came from limitations of soverignity that they could not change until the last 10 years. As such, they grew up instead of out so mass transit works well.
Last week I took a run from New England to Va. Caught some bad traffic in NYC, but that was to be expected.
What was not expected was the nightmare on beltway and rt 95 south. State pinheads have high speed HOV lanes,but you have to gain access in DC. If you prefer not to take you life in your hands by driving through NE section of Washington DC, you are hosed for 15 miles south of the beltway on Rt 95. It took 3 hours on what the radio called a normal commute from NE DC to the City to Fredicksburg, all the time the HOV was empty to the left of me. On the way back it took 55 minutes and we had to stop for 2 different wrecks, but it was not driven during the commute. Having lived there 25 years ago, this area used to be woods. But the builders all built off the exits. It was not suppose to be a commute road but part of the East Coast's N/S highway system. Looks like feds thought a commute by car from their condo in Fairfax was more important than getting goods up the east coast, or evacuating the general population at times of emergency.
Until middle level management starts to understand things have changed since 1830 and they do not have to keep a physical eye on all employees, the least we need to do is have the government keep the interstates at least 30 miles outside of population areas and limit ramps so as not to all the corradors to become new commute areas for developers and short sighted small town selectmen.
Sorry for the crass attitude, but I am pissed as this morning the numbnuts in Mass gov announce a new 511 phone number for traffic information. Like the idiots on the highways don't use their cell phones enough. Sweet Lord, what were they thinking???
Rob: "Heck, I'm gonna wait for half the agents to let their liciense lapse and spend the 80hr and $1200 and be my own agent and save another 4%."
The HBB had a quote from the California Association of Realtors regarding an estimated 40% of real estate agents letting their license expire in the next year or so.
Wishful thinking. Too many of those people have no other marketable skills, and so it is simply going to be a race to the bottom on fees. They will take any work they can get at any price, undercutting their competitors all the way. Not until the whole industry is staring at obsolescence (real estate agents going the way of travel agents) will there be a shakeout.
6% is going, going, and will soon be gone. I don't know what the new normal rates will be, but probably closer to European rates (2% to 3% if I recall.)
On topic (well, sort of--wasn't this post originally about home sellers?), mass transit and roads share one important characteristic: development will increase to match capacity. That simple truth really chafes with the proponents of big freeway systems, but I have seen evidence of it over and over again.
The "common wisdom", of course, is the other way around: that building up freeways and/or public transit is a way of heading off future congestion. And then they build it, and then there's severe congestion, and it's back to the drawing board. In reality, it's the transit that *creates* the congestion. Road planning and mass transit planning is, in reality, planning for development. If you want a lot of big development, build the roads and the rails; if you don't, don't, and the people (and developers) will complain bitterly, but they won't move in.
While I agree with Rob that buses can be much more efficient than rail systems, rail systems are what enable high-density developments. High-density developments can really boost an urban area, as they bring concentrations of jobs and residents. With only road transit, however, high density becomes an absolute nightmare (e.g. Tyson's Corner VA); with a mix of transit, it becomes much more reasonable to live and work there (e.g. Bethesda MD).
Akubi: "SQL on Rails is my greatest invention since the Internet itself.
-Al Gore, Former Something-or-Other"
It was only a matter of time. My list of "Things for Which Al Gore Has NOT Taken Credit" is shrinking daily; right at the top is peace in the Middle East, so I'm expecting a book/movie/public appearance/YouTube video from him in the near future addressing this issue so that he can take full credit for its resolution.
25 comments:
First to notice your house picture bears a striking resemblance to Casey's Power Team (Its not there)
Murst you beyotches.
I haven't been around much but I have been lurking. I didn't see this noted yet but I trust most of you know.
http://foreclosurehelpbook.com/
Fresh Fliptard Foder!
Dawg,
Let's get back to more of this:
http://exurbannation.blogspot.com/2004/07/build-your-way-out-of-congestion.html
Maybe not always, but sometimes.
The thing I don't get about the railheads: They say they like the NY metro area because they can travel where they want to go by rail. So why aren't the railheads rushing to move there it's transportation nirvana?
@Lou,
I believe in high speed rail and decent public transport options for those who can't ride or walk to work.
To avoid conflict, let's focus on something we can all agree upon.
Hey guyz,
SQL on Rails is my greatest invention since the Internet itself.
-Al Gore, Former Something-or-Other
Lou:
"So why aren't the railheads rushing to move there it's transportation nirvana?"
Because it's a pain in the ass to own a car in Noo Yawk.
Because it's a pain in the ass to own a car in Noo Yawk.
Only in the city.
I believe in high speed rail and decent public transport options for those who can't ride or walk to work.
Buses are far cheaper to operate and provide more flexibility. Why the light rail orgy, when it is clearly an inefficient money pit?
Oh my.
http://www.foreclosureeducationcenter.com/Pages/unemployed.html
There is so much here at this site that makes me want to hurl.
Rail transit is the pergraniteel of any city. How can you be "world class" without it? Complete collective insanity. Planners get infected with the edifice complex and electeds love nothing better than ribbon cutting ceromonies. You can't have either with a cheap effective bus network.
Rail transit has one big problem.
It's running on tracks that were laid in the 19th century, and thus aren't suitable for high-speed trains.
The idea that people must get on an airplane or drive a car for a trip of 300 miles or less is pretty ridiculous when you think about it.
There's areas where bullet trains could really make money, and sooner or later, will.
(Unless Buick starts making those cool flying cars we used to see George Jetson driving).
The idea that people must get on an airplane or drive a car for a trip of 300 miles or less is pretty ridiculous when you think about it.
I do agree that is pretty ridiculous to drive from downtown to downtown over such a distance, and it would be more convenient to have a high-speed train. I also agree that our rail infrastructure has deteriorated except for a few lines of serious importance.
The problem is that for most people who need to get from one city to another, few are going downtown to downtown. They are going from one suburb to another.
The majority of Americans desire personal transportation. Sure, they may say they want rail, but when it comes to actually paying for it and using it on a regular basis? Forget it. Even in Europe, where so many Americans marvel at the efficient rail system. Do you know that the vast majority of European commuters are just like us and get to work by car, even with gas at $7/gallon? You can see this in every country as affluence spreads.
Personal transportation isn't going away, it will become the preferred method of getting from Point A to Point B throughout the world. Once fuel price reach a certain point, we'll switch to another method of powering our vehicles.
Buttnugget has restarted his Flickr account.
http://flickr.com/photos/sercasey/
Macaroni Grill and that stupid shirt. He's baiting again.
http://flickr.com/photos/sercasey/
Macaroni Grill and that stupid shirt. He's baiting again.
He certainly is because those pictures were taken on 5th September.
He's baiting again.
**********************
You're right, as his pen is not even clicked open to write with!
What a poser.
yeah, when I saw the pix this morning I decided Casey is only getting my eyes. no more comments on his site.
Lou:
"Buttnugget"? ROFLMAO!
I am SO stealing that 'un.
Pah...he's nuking my comments as soon as they appear...what a schmucktard looser.
Anyway, rail.
Yeah, the Euros like their autos also, but nobody...and I mean NOBODY drives like we do.
You could drive for 8 hours and not leave Texas.
Try that in Europe and you'd need a passport and a handful of Customs declarations, (at least in the pre-EU days).
And true also that few folks comparatively go "downtown to downtown", but rather 'burb to 'burb...so here's a radical idea:
Build the rails and stations to and where people actually want to go.
Casey is boring, i.e., not funny any longer. High speed rail is far more important.
@Lou,
This commentary suggest that we clearly have some geographical differences: "Buses are far cheaper to operate and provide more flexibility. Why the light rail orgy, when it is clearly an inefficient money pit?"
Marin County screwed themselves via the anti-Bart B.S. and now has the worst f-ing traffic in the Bay Area (which is in the top 10 list of the country, I believe). With decent trains one can bypass traffic. Why take the bus when you're stuck in in the same gridlock as everyone else? There's no incentive!
Given Marin's NIMBY crap, we're spending a shitload of money widening the highway which will need to be continually widened forever unless some folks get their heads out of their a$$es.
Build the rails and stations to and where people actually want to go.
Where you are is probably a lot like where I am, at least when it comes to commuting patterns. I work in a nondescript office park. You may work in a nondescript office building. Chances are it's one of many spread throughout a large region. The solution you are proposing would require many new rail lines and many new stations, each one serving not many people.
The fact is, most of us do not work in downtowns.
Marin County screwed themselves via the anti-Bart B.S. and now has the worst f-ing traffic in the Bay Area (which is in the top 10 list of the country, I believe).
The worst traffic in Marin County I've encountered is some traffic lights in Mill Valley. 101, OTOH, from SFO to Redwood City, sucks ass. I've been stuck there many times when I was out there on business trips for my old company. There's a rail line paralleling 101, but most of the people prefer getting to work via 101, despite the traffic.
So why is it that rail-friendly Europeans prefer to commute by car, just as Americans do?
Mill Valley is nothing in comparison to San Rafael!
"So why is it that rail-friendly Europeans prefer to commute by car, just as Americans do?"
Huh? What Europeans?
This is all a short term issue. Long term most of us are going to work from home. No reason for accountants, IT folks, management etc to have to work in one building if one has the correct infrastructure. And there is plenty of fibre in place to handle the loads.
Seeing how Americans love to have a home with grass to cut, it gets increasingly difficult have rail service work for them. I marvel at Hong Kong's subway system where I can go anywhere, but that at wonderful freak of public transit came from limitations of soverignity that they could not change until the last 10 years. As such, they grew up instead of out so mass transit works well.
Last week I took a run from New England to Va. Caught some bad traffic in NYC, but that was to be expected.
What was not expected was the nightmare on beltway and rt 95 south. State pinheads have high speed HOV lanes,but you have to gain access in DC. If you prefer not to take you life in your hands by driving through NE section of Washington DC, you are hosed for 15 miles south of the beltway on Rt 95. It took 3 hours on what the radio called a normal commute from NE DC to the City to Fredicksburg, all the time the HOV was empty to the left of me. On the way back it took 55 minutes and we had to stop for 2 different wrecks, but it was not driven during the commute.
Having lived there 25 years ago, this area used to be woods. But the builders all built off the exits. It was not suppose to be a commute road but part of the East Coast's N/S highway system. Looks like feds thought a commute by car from their condo in Fairfax was more important than getting goods up the east coast, or evacuating the general population at times of emergency.
Until middle level management starts to understand things have changed since 1830 and they do not have to keep a physical eye on all employees, the least we need to do is have the government keep the interstates at least 30 miles outside of population areas and limit ramps so as not to all the corradors to become new commute areas for developers and short sighted small town selectmen.
Sorry for the crass attitude, but I am pissed as this morning the numbnuts in Mass gov announce a new 511 phone number for traffic information. Like the idiots on the highways don't use their cell phones enough. Sweet Lord, what were they thinking???
H.
From the previous post:
Rob: "Heck, I'm gonna wait for half the agents to let their liciense lapse and spend the 80hr and $1200 and be my own agent and save another 4%."
The HBB had a quote from the California Association of Realtors regarding an estimated 40% of real estate agents letting their license expire in the next year or so.
Wishful thinking. Too many of those people have no other marketable skills, and so it is simply going to be a race to the bottom on fees. They will take any work they can get at any price, undercutting their competitors all the way. Not until the whole industry is staring at obsolescence (real estate agents going the way of travel agents) will there be a shakeout.
6% is going, going, and will soon be gone. I don't know what the new normal rates will be, but probably closer to European rates (2% to 3% if I recall.)
On topic (well, sort of--wasn't this post originally about home sellers?), mass transit and roads share one important characteristic: development will increase to match capacity. That simple truth really chafes with the proponents of big freeway systems, but I have seen evidence of it over and over again.
The "common wisdom", of course, is the other way around: that building up freeways and/or public transit is a way of heading off future congestion. And then they build it, and then there's severe congestion, and it's back to the drawing board. In reality, it's the transit that *creates* the congestion. Road planning and mass transit planning is, in reality, planning for development. If you want a lot of big development, build the roads and the rails; if you don't, don't, and the people (and developers) will complain bitterly, but they won't move in.
While I agree with Rob that buses can be much more efficient than rail systems, rail systems are what enable high-density developments. High-density developments can really boost an urban area, as they bring concentrations of jobs and residents. With only road transit, however, high density becomes an absolute nightmare (e.g. Tyson's Corner VA); with a mix of transit, it becomes much more reasonable to live and work there (e.g. Bethesda MD).
Akubi: "SQL on Rails is my greatest invention since the Internet itself.
-Al Gore, Former Something-or-Other"
It was only a matter of time. My list of "Things for Which Al Gore Has NOT Taken Credit" is shrinking daily; right at the top is peace in the Middle East, so I'm expecting a book/movie/public appearance/YouTube video from him in the near future addressing this issue so that he can take full credit for its resolution.
Lou:
"Where you are is probably a lot like where I am, at least when it comes to commuting patterns."
No...not really. I commute from port amidship to the starboard bow, a distance of about 200 feet.
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Norfolk+International+Terminal&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=30.819956,59.238281&ie=UTF8&ll=36.932454,-76.331398&spn=0.001895,0.003616&t=k&z=18&iwloc=addr&om=1
Now my Monday morning and Friday evening commute is over 200 miles each way.
Where I live doesn't HAVE a "downtown"...in fact, it doesn't even have a "town", (unless you count the gas station).
But I would use HS rail.
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