Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Wrap Up Wednesday?

Tome to pick up the messy yard and water all the plants. Still the "Ranch Fire" that started in Castaic has crossed to central Ventura County and may proceed to Piru, Fillmore and possibly Ojai and Santa Paula. For now however pay attention to San Diego. They are far worse off.


Sweet Cashback said...

$5B + some rounding = $7.9B

First to redefine new rounding techniques.

Sweet Cashback said...

A ban on flammable items could help prevent the recurring wildfires in California.

Rob Dawg said...

Merrill, it is to laugh. A single quarter of bad news after an unprecedented multiyear run up? $7.9 billion was only that portion they couldn't hide any longer. It sure as hell doesn't establish loan loss reserves or even mark to market those components that they weren't caught mispricing yet. It is about time for the first small home builders to declare bankruptcy. Then we find out what impact their commercial credit lines will have on the financial sector.

unbelievable said...

All I can say is that I would rather have a hurricane headed my way than a fire storm. We've had our fair share of 'canes here in the Cape Fear area and I can deal with that. I'll quit complaining about our high humidity too while I'm at it.

Stay safe!

H Simpson said...

Rob said:
It is about time for the first small home builders to declare bankruptcy

Well my brother and his partener disolved their company 2 weeks ago. With jumbo gone, NOBODY was buying McMansions.

Luckily, they were not in hock to anyone. I think having a big time player crash is what is needed, as it seems like they are the canary in the coal mine running ~ 12 months ahead of the credit bubble.


H Simpson said...

and CFC is down $3 in past 5 days.

Way below that $17 threshold.

Folks still think they are going to soar short term??
Sounds like Caseyspeak to me.


Sweet Cashback said...

Sorry for hijacking this thread again but I thought this was great entertainment!

- 88% of americans think the value of their homes is going up over the next year
- South and Midwest is more optimistic about home prices then Northeast and West
- Remax CEO: People are not crazy, it's a great statistic
- Cocktail parties give great market analysis
- Real experts don't know what people on the street know (experts are NOT on the street)

Lou Minatti said...

Big article in the WSJ today about CW. The greed and idiocy in that company is astounding. The TanMan is pretending to be Gomer Pyle right now. "Surprise surprise surprise!"

The tall Oompa Loompa is going to jail. The masses will demand to see heads roll, and the Feds will see to it. Give the people what they want.

Rob Dawg said...

H Simpson said...
and CFC is down $3 in past 5 days.

Way below that $17 threshold.

The floor was supposed to be the BoA $18 exercise conversion price. So much for confidence. Let's be clear. CFC as it is now is a zero. The parts have value. They are a bank in part with all the value that implies. They mint money in the very low cost high return servicing business. Stuff like that. I wouldn't be surprised to see BoA pulling a dirty deal and getting the servicing dept freezing out all the other investors on the juicy piece.

Sweet Cashback said...
• 88% of americans think the value of their homes is going up over the next year

Yep, this is classic boiling frog behavior. The costs of owning a house are certainly going up a whole lot in the next year. Taxes, resets, higher interest rates, fees, inflation on all the rest, energy, falling dollar. It is normal to get used to many of these as translating into higher prices. Wrong, but normal.

H Simpson said...


I have felt since day one the BoA was a way for them to get their hooks into the CW organs without having to deal with the body. Tan Man was hoping to buy time for a new war or something else big and far away to happen so that he could slink off with his half billion.

This is getting to be ENNRON II only this time it is 7 years later and the state pension boards are smarter on how to get their AGs involved.

Secondly BoA is getting so large that if they piss off the wrong folks by pulling a fast one, they are going to under an investigative microscope that they cannot afford. That and a lot of their investors are the same pension boards. Not good when they come to the next board meeting with burnt fingers.

What the US govt needs to do is charge him under RICO and freeze all his assets. Squeeze him to let the funds go for taking a couple years off the sentence.

As for houses being worth more. It could be true. If the dollar continues to drop like a rock, inflation will hold those prices. In real value it will fall, but hey, who cares if their price was locked in. Well except when their ARM resets at 15%...


student said...

Just this morning in Calgary a real estate guru from Phoenix was on the radio touting the great "bargains" that can be found in Arizona. Especially for Canadians with the high loonie.

The part that made me cringe was when they said that "property values have nowhere to go but up" since they have hit bottom in Phoenix. That and the guy's website:

They also got the link wrong to their main site:

Looks like a classy operation.

Legion said...


The pic of him makes him look like one of those internet predators...

As for CFC, what can I say? I'm getting close to making 100K this year just shorting THEM.

Funny Circus Bears said...


Nice trading mate. I raise my glass to you.

For the last month or so virtually all of my trading capital has been long in AAPL, GOOG, and RIMM calls.

We all trade with a finite grub stake and have to choose where we fight, although I dearly wanted to take CFC and C short.

It really has been a great year.

Legion said...


AAPL GOOG AND RIMM?!?!!! Geez could you have picked any better stocks to go long on? My hats off to you as well!

I'm hearing rumblings about Apple support though. More and more complaints being filed and more people less happy about the resolution. As an avid PC person, I felt it was just a matter of time. Apple has been playing this "easy as pie, no probs right out of the box" line too long..whaddya expect, when you have no outside vendors, hardware or chipsets? It's kind of like a console like the ps3 or xbox360...everything works on it because there is only one configuration. Of course there isn't much software and prices are sky high since there is no that that aspect is changing...oooo la la..suddenly not everything works out of the box?

Legion said...

speaking of cfc, I'm seeing a lot of people buying thinking it's gonna go up big tomorrow for no other reason than it has gone down two days straight (it's gotta come out of the dive sometime right?) yeah like expecting the ace card to come out soon....