Saturday, October 27, 2007

Countrywide Holds A Conference Call

21 comments:

Martina said...

Jeez, Dawg, I didn't need to see that FIRST thing in the morning..

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

eeuwwwwwwwwwwwww.
Murst, but embarrassing.
Countryslide is not well liked, we get it.
heh

Bilgeman said...

Rob:

Ahhh, I see someone's grant from the National Endowment for the Arts was approved.

Lost Cause said...

Yes, but can he play Haydn's Trumpet Concerto in E flat?

Edgar said...

Very ass toot picture there, dawg.

Funny Circus Bears said...

Yesterdays run-up has teed-up some of the financials for a nice shorting - CFC, C, MER, MBI, ABK, MTG, etc.

Funny Circus Bears said...

Yesterdays financials pop was due to massive short covering and volume. Massive volume - which can not be sustained. The course of least resistance is down.

Kenneth said...

Rob, do you think the billion+ in required construction to rebuild will stop (or a least ameliorate) the downward skid on the builders side of the equation?

Bakersfield Bubble said...

I guess we now know that Mozzilo does not tan his ass!

Rob Dawg said...

Kenneth said...
Rob, do you think the billion+ in required construction to rebuild will stop (or a least ameliorate) the downward skid on the builders side of the equation?


I don't put much faith in the "broken window" theory and 2000 houses in region of 5 million houses is a few weeks reduction in inventory at most. Besides, most of the places that burned are going to be really slow to allow rebuilding. Years. That means worse than no effect IMO because it gives false hope to the builders.

Rob Dawg said...

ABK;

Wow, is that re-insurer ever on my radar.

The "pop" on Friday was just insane. It is a fools' errand to try to figure out what happened in order to take advantage of it. IMO, or course.

Kenneth said...

Rob-
The "broken window" theory is about the overall macroecomics. I agree that burning down houses is not a good way to jump start an economy. However, from a construction company point of view, it could be a boon, because it represents a wealth transfer from insurance companies to construction companies.

But, as you also say, if the magnitude of the required rebuilding is tiny compared to the oversupply of new houses, then I agree with the false hope hypothesis

IPudeMyself said...

This is all quite well predicted by the Austrians.

Rob Dawg said...

The Austrian School economists are just way too certain of everything for me to trust them implicitly. Like Coase and his broken Theorem they assume far too much.

Kenneth,
Think about those 2000 rebuilds in a region of 5,000,000 existing. No effect in 2007. Maybe by Q3 08 you can add 3-4000 workers to an industry that's lost 15,000 so far and likely to lose 25,000 more by then.

Akubi said...

Since the situation has become so predictable lately I've been falling behind on housing news. It was only this morning that I discovered Marin county tops the state in year over year quartely increase in foreclosure activity. A 925% increase!
Woohoo! Win-win!

R-Boy said...

We do? I thought we just prefered rational thought over modeling

<--Austrian economist.

Rob Dawg said...

Oh, did I forget to mention what Austrian Economists think of themselves and any competing theory. That's right there are no competing theories. ;-)

Lou Minatti said...

He had that traffic cone jammed pretty far up his Casey. I hope no hospitalization was required.

Akubi said...

Fishnets, angels, knitting and pears among other Zillow Book goodies for your pre-Halloween enjoyment.

Lost Cause said...

Isn't it interesting that all you seem to need, to make money hand over fist, is to be beyond the reach of the law of the land. Take Indian tribes for example. It is simply astonishing to read the history of the Pequot Tribe.

Ogg the Caveman said...

A possible low-tech solution to California's wildfire problem: goats.