Monday, October 29, 2007

Countrywide REO


This sweet deal is in Moorpark this time. Good news is that this one doesn't appear trashed. Bad news is they need $1,462,900 to make their nut.

12146 Palmer Dr
Moorpark, CA 93021
MLS ID# 70018290

Love the landscaping.

Countrywide took this one back 08/06/2007: $1,545,750. Here we are almost 3 months later and they've knocked a whopping 5%. Near as I can tell this predialian manse was sold new in 2005 for the princely sum of $640k. You gotta wonder what the owners were doing with all the MEW.

24 comments:

Ogg the Caveman said...

I'll be the FIRST to pass on that sweet deal.

Peripheral Visionary said...

$640k in 2005 and $1545k in 2007, are you serious? Even if there's a second mortgage with the first purchase, it's at least a 100% appreciation in two years, even for California that's unreal.

And my unsolicited prediction for the markets: the markets will hold up reasonably well until the Fed cuts rates--and the Fed will cut the rate, either by 25 bps or 50 bps. At that point, the markets will stage an anemic rally, going higher but not hitting any records.

The problem is that the markets are expecting the rate cut to be the kiss from mommy that makes everything better. The Big Downturn will begin when, in the coming weeks, the markets realize that the rate cuts are not going to make everything better, and in fact may be exacerbating the problem by slamming the dollar and prompting overseas investors to withdraw their dollar-denominated holdings. As soon as faith in the Fed's ability to work miracles is shaken, the fear that gripped the markets at the end of the summer will be back in a big way.

Lou Minatti said...

You gotta wonder what the owners were doing with all the MEW.

Which is why I am against tax bailouts for the MEW people. I am OK with the schnook who simply couldn't make the payments getting tax relief. He never "liberated the equity."

Has anyone ever determined the percentage of FBs who rode the MEW gravy train?

Rob Dawg said...

I'm not sure. $640k in 2005 seems awfully cheap but that is the tax valuation backtested.

Tax Information
Tax Assessment History 2006 2007
Total property tax paid: $7,136 $7,136
Assessed value bldgs: $256,000 $672,000
Assessed value land: + $392,824 + $1,249,000
Total assessed value: = $648,824 = $1,921,000

http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=5years&testAds=false&zpid=69042100

As to the markets; this is the top of the roller coaster just before the stomach churning ride. I don't see how it can survive FAS 179 on Nov 15th even if the response it to decline to report.

aaron said...

check out this.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071028/lf_nm/usa_creditcards_debt_dc;_ylt=ApglMyXu4k0xHemZfqGViJADW7oF

Ogg the Caveman said...

What does MEW stand for?

Rob Dawg said...

Mortgage(d) Equity Withdrawal. Re-fi cashouts, HELOCs, etc.

WeWantTheFunk said...

Little-known fact: "Moorpark" spelled backward is "Kraproom."

Lou Minatti said...

Small anecdotal OT FYI. Driving on I-10 yesterday for about an hour going eastbound heading home, I passed by four cars and pickups with CA plates hauling U-Haul trailers. I wonder where they are heading. Houston, Atlanta, Florida, the Carolinas? There are plenty of jobs offshore, maybe they were heading towards Lafayette.

I saw this when I was a kid, only it was a river of black Michigan license plates. Very sad. I hope they are off to better things.

I think economic dislocation is far tougher for the parents than the kids. Kids are flexible and these kinds of dislocations are like an adventure to them. It was for me, anyway. I can't imagine what it is like for the parents.

Peripheral Visionary said...

The Housing Bubble Blog and the Prudent Bear have both referenced anecdotal information from local U-Hauls in California; they're renting far more going out than are coming in. In fact, U-Haul may have some of the best data available on migration patterns within the country.

I've already mentioned this before on this site, but it's clear that D.C. is becoming a destination. I see plenty of people move in, and not many move out. If you have any experience in law, security, IT, or biotech, and especially if you can get a gov't clearance, you'll get a job. Unfortunately, that means that our traffic and mass transit headaches aren't going away any time soon.

Rob Dawg said...

EN has been talking about U-Haul for years. So old that the search function doesn't call it up. Time to move the blog?

Anyway, the eastern US; Mason-Dixon to Terminus is the current population growth area. Hard to say if it will last.

Ogg the Caveman said...

Of course, moving to the DC area comes with the minor drawback of living in the DC area. I'm not sure how it is other times of the year, but my experience there at the hight of summer was... not nice. I like my humidity less than 100%.

I'd do it if I had to, but as long as I have options it's not high on my list.

Peripheral Visionary said...

Ogg: "Of course, moving to the DC area comes with the minor drawback of living in the DC area."

:D

Hot in the summer, cold in the winter, muggy year-round. Not the most expensive in the country (that would be NY), but still very expensive, and very crowded. And it's populated with nothing but lawyers, politicians, and consultants. Wait, you mean that's not your ideal environment?

Of course, people who like a very international, cosmopolitan environment actually like DC. But I realize that's not everyone.

The discussion on how climate influences the economic and political environment is an interesting one, though. But let's just say that it's not a coincidence that world history has been dominated by groups operating out of less than pleasant climates--Arabia, Mongolia, Britain, New England, Japan (we'll call Italy an outlier.) California was looking to break that trend, but I'm beginning to wonder if it will go the way of its neighbor to the south.

"I'd do it if I had to, but as long as I have options it's not high on my list."

I think the point is that many people are running out of options. If they're fixed on a year-round climate, I would recommend the Texas Gulf Coast. But then, that comes with the disadvantage of having to live in Texas. :D

Bilgeman said...

PV:

"I've already mentioned this before on this site, but it's clear that D.C. is becoming a destination."

Oh, swell. And I thought international immigrants were bad.
(At least when they mewl about how great it was "back home", I usually can't understand THEM.

"If you have any experience in law, security, IT, or biotech, and especially if you can get a gov't clearance, you'll get a job."

Yessss, and along with your spiffy new job will come a putridly expensive FABULOUS townhome/horizontal apartment.

You'll be a psychotic "Parking Space Nazi" in no time.

See y'all at the traffic jam!

(PLEASE keep your sunglasses in your car for your AM/PM commutes.)

dwr said...

The now-foreclosed on owner bought it new from Toll Bros for north of $2 million in 2006:

Seller: TOLL CA LP (Partnership)

Property Address: 12146 PALMER DR, MOORPARK, CA 93021-8778

**************************** SALES INFORMATION *****************************

Sale Date: 6/7/2006

Recorded Date: 8/1/2006

Sale Price: $ 2,074,000 (Full Amount Computed From Transfer Tax)

Property Flopper said...

Now that makes sense, the $640k was the land only.

Rob Dawg said...

Tax Assessment History 2006 2007
Total property tax paid: $7,136 $7,136
Assessed value bldgs: $256,000 $672,000
Assessed value land: + $392,824 + $1,249,000
Total assessed value: = $648,824 = $1,921,000

Repeat: Assessed value land 2007: $1,249,000

This is a dirty deal.

TK said...

Nigel is doing an "RE cast". Should be interesting to note if there is any content here.

Let's see...

Bilgeman said...

Rob:

"Repeat: Assessed value land 2007: $1,249,000
This is a dirty deal."

What are you talking about?

Non-flammable land shouldn't sell at a premium?

This is the assessment that popped out at me:

"Assessed value bldgs: $256,000 $672,000"

A 400k + price hike for the same pile of nailed-together sticks in 1 lousy year?

That's an appreciation of >$1,000 daily.

Smoke crack,much?

Curious said...

So, does anyone know what happened to the site http://excwinsider.com/? I haven't been able to pull it up for two days.

Did the TanMan™ manage to get them off the net or did the site implode?

dwr said...

"Repeat: Assessed value land 2007: $1,249,000

This is a dirty deal."

When a property sells, doesn't the assessor assign some portion of the sales price to the land? I.e., if the vacant lot sold for $600K, then Toll Bros. put a 6000 s.f. monster on it and sold it for $2.0 million, the assessor assigns more than 600K of the purchase price to the land. I'm pretty sure this is SOP.

Rob Dawg said...

It's less than half an acre. The land is $65/sf and the building $115/sf. Very strange metric. That same land value gets you a nearby 20 acre producing orchard.

Sara said...

But let's just say that it's not a coincidence that world history has been dominated by groups operating out of less than pleasant climates--Arabia, Mongolia, Britain, New England, Japan (we'll call Italy an outlier.)

"How come (these English) by their mettle? Is not their climate foggy, raw, and dull?"

(Henry V, Act III, Scene 5. Sorry to geek out, but that line always makes me laugh)

Nothing against Californians, but clearly, the not-having-any-seasons thing dulls the senses after awhile and makes people start making bad decisions. Like 40-year interest-only mortages with ARMs.

tstaples said...

I live in Moorpark and have been watching this development since it's inception. This particular property was under construction in 2005. The land value is based on the original acquisition cost for the development, when it was part of an orchard, and not country club housing. The building cost is (I'm speculating) most likely a valuation on a partially completed dwelling at the time of the assessment.

IMHO, this development is doomed to failure for two reasons:
1) Current bubble burst, resulting in pricing correction back to historical norms.
2) Moorpark is primarily middle and some upper middle class families. With Countrywide, Baxter, and Amgen (the three biggest local high end employers) all struggling, I don't see it as an area that can support a large development of $2MM houses.

These were developed at the RE market bubble peak, and they are way overpriced compared to historical RE valuation norms. In my estimation, this will end up a $1MM property (in today's dollars) once the roller coaster ride reaches bottom. It could be 1-3 more years (or possibly longer if the feds keep stringing out the necessary correction with rate reductions) before that occurs. I base that on what $500k houses were like in 2000-2001 in Moorpark, and the relative delta in sq. footage, lot size, and proximity to a golf course community. The direct comps would be the Serenata development in Moorpark which is also gated, and was built in 2000-2002. The pre-bubble values, with an allowance made for traditional 3-5%/yr price appreciation, translated to 2008, are a good starting point for true valuation.