Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
I am on the record as too scared to look until Sept 08 at which time i will only be able to see may shadow and thereby say IF the bottom is in sight. That for the uninitiated is really bearish. I'm not talking about a bottom, I'm talking about whether by then it will be possible to predict a bottom. I'll go one further; anybody who is trying to predict a bottom be it 2009 or 2013 is worse than lying. Liars have information with which to mould their lies. there is not even bad data at this point with which to make bad predictions. The coyote has fallen off the cliff, the whistling has stopped and there's no telling how long until the little puff of dust will poof up in the roadrunner cartoon.
Honestly I can't think of why anyone would be buying now. There is no value if you can grasp the original meaning.
We are starting to see the occasional meteor. A deal that makes obvious sense but I honestly think those have always been there just blocked from view by the wild markets.
We ain't never going back to the $200k shacks on the California coast like there were in the early 90s. There was unrecognized value there that won't get lost again. Contrarywise I will never understand Palmdale/Lancaster. Offer me an entire neighborhood of 2005 built McStuccos and all I can think is how expensive the diesel for the bulldozer will be.
New families are forming, people move on with their lives, discretionary indulgences that don't adhere to financial optimization. Estates, buying out partners, or siblings. There are reasons to do real estate transactions but as an asset class or investment no.
> & I don't think there is another bubble to hang America's hope [greed] on.
There's always another bubble. Commodities are probably next, the graphs look great if you are clueless, so they should start to lure the real (dumb) money in.
Investment idea of the day - come back in a few weeks and short rhodium.
12 comments:
This is just the FIRST milestone on an unprecedented drop!
looks like it is falling much faster than the runup.
While this curve is certainly interesting, the previous ones were much nicer to look at.
Any speculation on how low it's going to go before it hits bottom?
Aren't most mainstream commenters (not NAR) saying end of 2009 at the earliest?
Oh, I wouldn't expect bottom until 2010 personally, but I'm wondering about the prices. How low will that curve drop? Thoughts?
I am on the record as too scared to look until Sept 08 at which time i will only be able to see may shadow and thereby say IF the bottom is in sight. That for the uninitiated is really bearish. I'm not talking about a bottom, I'm talking about whether by then it will be possible to predict a bottom. I'll go one further; anybody who is trying to predict a bottom be it 2009 or 2013 is worse than lying. Liars have information with which to mould their lies. there is not even bad data at this point with which to make bad predictions. The coyote has fallen off the cliff, the whistling has stopped and there's no telling how long until the little puff of dust will poof up in the roadrunner cartoon.
Hola-
Been a lurker for the last year or so, and want to thank anyone and everyone who contributes here. The comments are as illuminating as the blogger.
This chart tells some of us what we already know.
Just reading the news tells me we're going DOWN. Long. And hard.
Recovery isn't even visible over the horizon.
& I don't think there is another bubble to hang America's hope [greed] on.
I'm old enough (50) to remember the 70's and how bad off I was then. This situation we find ouselves in smells a lot worse.
Like burnt toast.
But then my ex-wife says I'm such a pessimist.
I think I'm being optimistic. People need to prepare, and stop living in a fantasy world.
THAT is what I call "news you can use". If you can't detect the trend there, you don't deserve a positive net worth.
Chart of the day? Heck, that's 'chart of the year', until, of course, next month, when the the updated chart becomes 'chart of the year'. BWAHAHAHA
Dawg, like PF, I too like bottoms. So why not add some good 'bottoms' holding the next graphs.
Not asking as an agent, but just wondering, is there any reason for someone to buy in this distressed market?
Honestly I can't think of why anyone would be buying now. There is no value if you can grasp the original meaning.
We are starting to see the occasional meteor. A deal that makes obvious sense but I honestly think those have always been there just blocked from view by the wild markets.
We ain't never going back to the $200k shacks on the California coast like there were in the early 90s. There was unrecognized value there that won't get lost again. Contrarywise I will never understand Palmdale/Lancaster. Offer me an entire neighborhood of 2005 built McStuccos and all I can think is how expensive the diesel for the bulldozer will be.
New families are forming, people move on with their lives, discretionary indulgences that don't adhere to financial optimization. Estates, buying out partners, or siblings. There are reasons to do real estate transactions but as an asset class or investment no.
Promise, bottom grabbing pics with the next rant.
> & I don't think there is another bubble to hang America's hope [greed] on.
There's always another bubble. Commodities are probably next, the graphs look great if you are clueless, so they should start to lure the real (dumb) money in.
Investment idea of the day - come back in a few weeks and short rhodium.
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