Thursday, December 19, 2013

DataQuick November '13 Misc


DQNews:

The typical monthly mortgage payment that California buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,418, up from $1,395 the month before and up from $1,026 a year earlier. Adjusted for inflation, last month's payment was 38.4 percent below the typical payment in spring 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. It was 50.1 percent below the current cycle's peak in June 2006. It was 54.5 percent above the February 2012 bottom of the current cycle. 

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 That's a pretty fast increase in mortgage burden.  Even more telling:

Sales down 10.8 percent from 37,481 sales in November 2012, ...Last month's sales were 15.1 percent below the average of 39,357 sales for all the months of November since 1988.

 The Ice Queen senses a chill in the market. 

16 comments:

TJandTheBear said...

The median price paid for a home in California last month was $360,000

That's a glorified closet anywhere but BFE. Pretty much in line with that typical mortgage payment, too.

Cinco-X said...

CR"As expected, existing home sales declined in November. But lower existing home sales, and slower price appreciation, doesn't mean the housing recovery is over.
Comments on Existing Home Sales

Rob Dawg said...

In my corner of California $360,000 is a conforming down payment.

Rob Dawg said...

Bill is whistling past the abandoned development. The recovery was due to a convergence of one time effects. No repetition of free money, bulk buyers, bank abeyance, unmet demand, etc.

We revisit 3.5% mortgages or we revisit 2010 prices.

Cinco-X said...

When a Good Indicator Goes Bad: The Shiller CAPE ratio.
When calculating what he calls the Pro-Forma version of the CAPE ratio, Livermore changes the time of the data set. Rather than run from 1881-1994, as does Shiller's ratio, Livermore looks at the 1954-94 average. This is not a nefarious change; Livermore like Shiller before him starts the exercise when the data permit. However, altering the time frame does affect the results.

As Livermore's goodwill adjustment does not address the large 1990s' anomaly, I am not fully convinced. It's well researched, and it's a part of the story, but it is not a fix. The struggles of the CAPE ratio's signal will not end by making that change. There remains something else that appears be different since 1990, something that sent the CAPE ratio to a different regime.

What that is, I do not know. What I do know is that when an empirical measure begins to sputter, it's probably best to move on. It's not as if the ratio's use is supported by theory.

Rob Dawg said...

Bill over on CR just stepped in it. He forgot the November port volumes year over year are being compared to strike impaired November 2012. Let's watch and see who notices first.

TJandTheBear said...

Given derivative risks being realized north of 3%, what's the chance that rates don't just blow right by 3.5%? Seems to me that's the top risk to "taper" being abandoned before it even really starts, as the Fed would have to intervene in the 10YT market to hold down rates.

Cinco-X said...

TJandTheBear said...Given derivative risks being realized north of 3%, what's the chance that rates don't just blow right by 3.5%...the Fed would have to intervene in the 10YT market to hold down rates.

I think there's a very real risk, but I think the fed is watching closely. I actually surprised that they did anything, but it might just be a trial balloon to see how the markets and economy react...

Cinco-X said...


Living Sick and Dying Young in Rich America: Chronic illness is the new first-world problem.

I ask Jacoby: Are my friends sick, by chance, because they grew up eating Spaghetti-O’s and Kraft macaroni and cheese like every other kid in the 1980s? Are they victims of an era driven by convenience foods and sugary drinks? (Joe’s father was a Pepsi salesman.)

“Anyone that lives on mac and cheese, a lot of this packaged food, probably will grow up in one way or another addicted to this type of food. It’s well-known that there is very clear evidence that packaged foods are designed to be addictive,” he says. “Do you know anyone who is addicted to chicken or fish or celery? That doesn’t exist.”

Rob Dawg said...

I'm thinking touching 3% on the 10y scares the Fed into some of those alternative policies.

Rob Dawg said...

Prior to 18-20 any normal kid sees calories and nothing else. The problem is normal kids used to walk to school, watch 30 mins of TV, played a sport or was in scouts, went to bed at 9:30, etc. We've changed diets and lifestyle that would normally take dozens of brutal generations or a hundred gentle adaption generations to accommodate.

Rob Dawg said...

Over on HCN:

gwb43 wrote on Thu, 12/19/2013 - 1:49 pm

LA area Port Traffic doesn't "strike" out this time...

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Okay, busted. Which one of you is gwb43? Or is gwb43 just lurking here?

TJandTheBear said...

That post-FOMC stock pump was as orchestrated a move as I've ever seen, but the real tell was that the 10YT kept inching skyward. It's backed off the highs, but we were under 5 basis points from a 3 handle today.

sm_landlord said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-balance-sheet-tops-4-trillion-for-first-tim-2013-12-19

Is there a countup clock for the Fed balance sheet?

TJandTheBear said...

USDebtClock.org does have a section for "Money Creation" listing the monetary base, M2, securities and currency/derivatives.

Thomas Stone said...

Here in Sonoma County the market has changed drastically since May/June for properties priced between about $400K and $600K. Early this year you either had all cash or you had no chance.
Two people I know who primarily work Santa Rosa have had multiple offers on listings that went up in November ( 5 offers and 8 offers. One sold for the asking price, one after a 5% price reduction.
In both cases the winning bid was a conventional loan with 20% down, all the other offers were VA or FHA.