Friday, December 13, 2013

PPI and Stuff

The Producer Price Index for finished goods edged down 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods decreased 0.2 percent in October and 0.1 percent in September. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods declined 0.5 percent, and the crude goods index fell 2.6 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods advanced 0.7 percent for the 12 months ended November 2013.

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It isn't -0.1% that is the news, it is that the PPI has declined for the last three months. Month to month variation is expected especially when bouncing around at such low inflation. Three months of declines however rises to actionable attention. 

And read that last line; "unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods advanced 0.7 percent for the 12 months."

Well, I just performed the chained PPI using the data from Table A and it turns out the actual number is 0.3% year over year. 

And the sweet things to the left? They are BLS field researchers trying to guess if the tide is going out.

17 comments:

Rob Dawg said...

To give you an idea of how gamed these numbers are; energy prices declined in 7 of the past 12 months. Food prices declined in 5 of the last 12 months but both food and energy both declined in only 2 of the past 12 months.

Forensic mathematics is fun. Hey, speaking of which when is skk getting back?

Cinco-X said...

Expect "Upside Surprises" for the Economy in 2014: Nariman Behravesh
...but in the link to the referenced article:

Global Economy to See Modest 3.3 Percent Growth in 2014...IHS Top10 Predictions foresees an end to “wallowing in an economic soft patch”

Cinco-X said...

Are you right-brained or left-brained?

Turns out I'm visual, outspoken, artistic, impulsive, intuitive, a daydreamer and disorganised... aka right-brained

sm_landlord said...

SpecTaperulation seems to have whacked the market again. Also JP Morgan predictions are out - how about a 20% gain in the S&P for 2014? All they need is a 20% drop before Dec 31 to set it up...

Thomas Stone said...

Nothing but blue skies ahead! Just think of the opportunities a record drought will bring!

Cinco-X said...

sm_landlord said...JP Morgan predictions are out - how about a 20% gain in the S&P for 2014? All they need is a 20% drop before Dec 31 to set it up...

Don't underestimate the power of HFT..

Rob Dawg said...

A Realitter™! Quick, hide the good silver.

The worst part of this drought is that the Peripheral Canal... errr... Peripheral Covered Canal will get rammed through.

Cinco-X said...

Rob Dawg said...The worst part of this drought is that the Peripheral Canal... errr... Peripheral Covered Canal will get rammed through.

Is "Peripheral Covered Canal" a euphemism for taxpayer @$$es?

Cinco-X said...

Fact or fiction: CIA or Homeland?

Got about half right...

Cinco-X said...

Ireland becomes first country to exit eurozone bailout programme
Three years after being saved from bankruptcy by a trio of international lenders with a €67.5bn loan, Ireland has become the first stricken eurozone state to exit its rescue programme.

Describing the crisis as the country's worst period since the potato famine, Ireland's finance minister said there must be no repeat of the debt-fuelled property spree that brought the Celtic Tiger boom to a disastrous end. "We can't go mad again," said Michael Noonan.

Ireland's announcement that it will not seek more funds from the International Monetary Fund, European commission and European Central Bank - with the rescue scheme to end formally on Sunday - was seized upon by the EC president, José Manuel Barroso, as evidence that the eurozone can stage a full recovery.


HCN? Austerity might actually work!

Rob Dawg said...

Real austerity works. The accounting gimmicks we call austerity won't work because austerity means spending less than you revenues not merely spending less.

Cinco-X said...

Rob Dawg said...Real austerity works. The accounting gimmicks we call austerity won't work because austerity means spending less than you revenues not merely spending less.

...or spending more but at a slower rate of growth...

Cinco-X said...

The FBI Says It Has Stopped A Suicide Bomb Plot On Kansas Airport


Loewen allegedly "spent months developing a plan to use his access card to the airport to drive a carload of explosives to the terminal."

When he was arrested, he was attempting to deliver the vehicle full of explosives.

No one was ever in any real danger, though, officials said at a press conference Friday. The operation was reportedly a sting and the explosives weren't real.


Why does it seem that every "foiled plot" we hear about sounds an awful lot like entrapment?

sm_landlord said...

"Why does it seem that every "foiled plot" we hear about sounds an awful lot like entrapment?"

Well, there may be actual budget negotiations coming up next year, and if there weren't any "foiled plots", there might be less money appropriated for creating them.

Cinco-X said...

sm_landlord said...Well, there may be actual budget negotiations coming up next year, and if there weren't any "foiled plots", there might be less money appropriated for creating them.

...or perhaps this is cover for the recent report that the NSA won't be changing the scope of its current spying on citizens, unless it decides to expand it...

Rob Dawg said...

Be interested to see the budget expenditure total for this sting.

Cinco-X said...

Rob Dawg said...Be interested to see the budget expenditure total for this sting.
Cost no doubt classified, and results no doubt priceless...