Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Grinding More than His Organ


Sadder than an organ grinder who can't wake his monkey. The monkey is just "sleeping" right? Dance monkey, dance. Man, when they find out that the credit card you used as a security deposit is declined this could be more entertaining than the time we stole Casey's car speakers.

No money to pay back millions but enough money for a high speed evasive driving course. Casey is giving troll lessons.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The Next Domino Falls

The secret is out and the consumer is listening. The Conference Board has the latest consumer confidence figure out this morning.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Countrywide REO


This sweet deal is in Moorpark this time. Good news is that this one doesn't appear trashed. Bad news is they need $1,462,900 to make their nut.

12146 Palmer Dr
Moorpark, CA 93021
MLS ID# 70018290

Love the landscaping.

Countrywide took this one back 08/06/2007: $1,545,750. Here we are almost 3 months later and they've knocked a whopping 5%. Near as I can tell this predialian manse was sold new in 2005 for the princely sum of $640k. You gotta wonder what the owners were doing with all the MEW.

No, It's Not the ABX


The falling dollar? No, this is the low end (25th percentile) of the Sacramento housing market.

Last: (10/26/2007) $239,500
52wk Range: 239,500 - 299,999

1 month -$10,400 (-4.2%)
3 months -$29,500 (-11.0%)
6 months -$45,200 (-15.9%)
12 months -$60,499 (-20.2%)

Gotta love poking around Housing-Watch.

Friday, October 26, 2007

No Duh


Burned, gone, up in flames. Built in 2002. Any guesses why a house 50 feet away from a raw canyon with limited access would catch fire?

You can use the LATimes database to search for destroyed homes.

Personally I'm thinking the devil. She did it. Actually this is a classic failure of planning but if I said that I wouldn't be able to put up this picture.

Hat tip to MaxedOutMama for both her recent concern and for reminding me that we need the occasional nekkid lady to keep things exciting.

Lesser of Two Weasels


Well, Damoin and Casey have "launched." Launched what I have no freakin' idea. Should we even bother? Surprisingly, I say yes. I say we collect all the pertainent data on their new operation and dump the whole mess on the Phoenix bunko division. Then we ignore them with a clean civic conscience.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Epicaricacy


Mozillo under investigation. Casey's 6 month tax delay ran out last week. Naked swimmers everywhere. Homebuilders on their last legs. The IBs tanking. Slightly used BMW M5 (obo/take over payments) anyone?

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

HR 3609

HR 3609 (The Emergency Home Ownership and Mortgage Protection Act Of 2007)

Sounds compassionate. All the bad ideas get the best titles. You all know the details by now. This allows BK judges to modify loan terms for people in Chapter 13. It doesn't much matter if it is principal or interest or both but it looks like it is an interest rate modification program as of the latest. I will not comment on all the things you know I think about this. Instead I thought it useful to see the limits of such a program.

Say for instance there's this young couple, call them, C&G. C&G have a 2005 era 3/1 ARM LIBOR +3.5% with intro rate of 5.125% on their modest Sacramento $550,000 starter home that they paid only $5,000 up front to cover some closing costs. The full rate kicks in Spring 2008 at ~9%. Payments go from $3000 to $4400. They are busted. They have to do something. Sell? NFW. the place is worth $450,000 now. Bankrupt? Let's try. Chapter 13 looks like a way out. The judge needs to get them bank to $3000 mortgage payments. Well gee, the math is easy, return to 5.125% rates, a full point below all those idiots with good credit and fixed mortgages trhey can afford. Good deal for C&G? Not hardly. They owe $550k on a $450k house. At the new interest rate they can pay in until October 2017 before they are back to even with no contributed equity. That's if prices are flat. That same $3000/mo over the next 10 years using $2000 generous dollars for rent and banking $1000 would have them up $160,000 in double tax free munis. They would pay a lot less for the type of house that cost $550k in Spring 2005.

Wrap Up Wednesday?


Tome to pick up the messy yard and water all the plants. Still the "Ranch Fire" that started in Castaic has crossed to central Ventura County and may proceed to Piru, Fillmore and possibly Ojai and Santa Paula. For now however pay attention to San Diego. They are far worse off.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Blustery Tuesday



The map shows no fires nearby and while the wind is as bad as ever it is expected to die out this afternoon.

One thing I found interesting is the myths about SoCal that build up in peoples minds. Lou Minnati observed: From your post yesterday (34.251,-119.081) I see that you have farms just north of your house. I thought they plowed under all the farms in your neck of the woods.


The Dawg Pound is extreme lower center, the rest is farmland. This is real farmland not some developer owned fields waiting for the bulldozers. In fact Agriculture is the #1 industry in the county dwarfing even biotech giant Amgen. The myth is that a region the size of New England is in anyway homgenous. After the fires are old news we'll revisit the planning successes and failures that led to why some places are still nice and others uninteresting urban sprawl.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Wind Damage


The cabana didn't like yesterday's 70mph gusts.

We are in a small window of "good air." 20-25mph steady winds with mild gusts. Things are better but it will be another 24hrs of watching and waiting. And in case you are wondering, no, there is nothing "wrong" with the picture. That was the color outside yesterday.

Akubi Is Right


Why be all serious all the time? If you can't find something pleasant to think about today you'll be arrested by this nice officer and MADE to think of something pleasant.

Windy Monday


Just in case anyone was wondering, yes it is windy. 20-30mph steady and blows to 50 and gusts some unknowable number above that.

Ignore Kalifornia At Your Peril

They should call California the "Granola State": what ain't fruits and nuts is flakes. - Gallagher

Our very own "The Scum" with no particulat malice gives voice to a common attitude: Yet another fire destroying overpriced shit boxes in Klownifornia...just like EVERY year. The rest of the country just doesn't give a craptacular shit about a few California fires. You choose to live there you deal with the consequences.

I hope yours and your loved ones are all okay (yes I do have personal empathy even while questioning mob pity seeking).

There are some areas of the country that don't burn up every year. Of course they might not meet your 'lifestyle' needs.


Nothing I haven't heard or possibly said myself for over 30 years. Truth is that Kalifornia is still America writ large. If you want to know where the US is headed look to the tip of the spear.

As to the specific issues; We may have an earthquake and we may have a firestorm but we will have temeperatures averaging 70 degrees for the next 4 months and 90% sunshine. Excuse me now as I check the lawn for any avocados or oranges that may have fallen in the winds last night.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

At Last An Excuse

We've got steady 30-35mph winds here at the Dawg Pound with gusts to 55-60mph. We lost a cabana (~$300) to wind but no big damage of threat of fire yet.

Malibu (Rockwell Research/Pepperdine) is burning and spotting, jumping PCH no hope for containment. Another small fire in Chatsworth and a forest fire in Castaic.

It will be interesting to see if this is the straw on the back of recession and inflation fears.

Update: "The Castle" is no more. Mixed feelings. Go to Curbed LA for background.

Saturday, October 20, 2007

The Island of Misfit Debt

...WASHINGTON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Friday said it is seeking bond dealer advice on whether it should change its auction schedule to be in line with current fiscal and economic conditions.

Here, let me make it clear. Nobody, and I mean nobody wants US denominated debt anymore. Look at the ABX, look at exchange rates individually. Now the Treasury can't even keep printing the paper they've been recently been pawning off as money. The jig is up.

Good Politician Bad Politician

Property is the fruit of labor. Property is desirable, is a positive good in the world. That some should be rich shows that others may become rich and hence is just encouragement to industry and enterprise. Let not him who is houseless pull down the house of another, but let him work diligently to build one for himself, thus by example assuring that his own shall be safe from violence. – Abraham Lincoln

I should know better by now than to do such irresponsible things as keeping track of those weasels in D.C and Sacramento. Don't worry, it's sunny and I'm enjoying some landscaping in my tiny plot in deepest darkest dense Los Angeles. If this becomes a habit then feel free to send out the wagon and butterfly net. First the bad politician.

Norm Coleman (R, MN) [apologies for previously calling him G] has this gem:

In an effort to provide relief to homeowners who are facing foreclosure due to difficulty with their mortgage payments, Senator Norm Coleman yesterday introduced the Home Ownership Mortgage Emergency Act (HOME Act). The HOME Act would allow homeowners who are 60 days late in their mortgage payments to withdraw penalty-free up to $100,000 from their retirement accounts through 2009 for the purpose of refinancing into an affordable mortgage or avoid foreclosure.

Used to be not so long ago that your home was your retirement. The worm has turned and your retire is your home.

But wait... that's not all. Young Coleman is not so much a pie-in-the-sky dreamer. He's already "helped":

Additionally, he is a cosponsor of the Mortgage Cancellation Relief Act of 2007, which will make mortgage debt forgiveness tax-free.

Gives flesh to the words: "No man's life, liberty or property are safe while the legislature is in session." [poss. attr. Judge Gideon J. Tucker]
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All may not be lost however. There are still honest politicians. Ooops, sorry about all that beer that just ruined your keyboard. I don't know how it happens but occasionally it seems there are a very few able to avoid the lure. This is California State Senator Tom McClintock. He had his 15 minutes as the man who lost to Da Governator in the recall election a few years back.

McClintock has this refreshing bit of common sense from the land of fruit and nuts:

The True Cost Of The Global Warming Farce
Excerpt:
Last year, in the name of saving the planet from global warming, California adopted the most radically restrictive legislation anywhere in the nation, including AB 32, which requires a 25 percent reduction in man-made carbon dioxide emissions within 13 years.

To put this in perspective, we could junk every car in the state of California RIGHT NOW – and not meet this mandate.

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Sorry to be so long winded, seems to be a hazard of exposure to politicians.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Greg Swann Needs Our Help

Everyone remembers Greg right? The guy who wants to be Realtor 2.0. Well turns out he's been staying up late some nights. He joking asks what people think he's been doing. He is my reply:

And here all this time I thought Greg stayed up late adding to his 21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market list.

What "bank" do you recommend? Countrywide? Wachovia? BofA? Citi?

Excerpt:
Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?
Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings.


Which side of the sewer grating was that again? All those flying monkeys you saw. All those Nazis. Ohhh... I've got it. You are making a list of all the people to whom you have been less than fair. How's your effort to educate those troglodytes going?
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Add your comments here.

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Nobody has to tell you that he's not going to apologize. Indeed you should don your Nomex underwear as he lasks even the most basic level of human decency on these matters and will no doubt think he is being clever as he drips acid from his keyboard in an attempt to compensate fot whatever it is he feels he needs to compensate for. Still could be fun. Stay tuned.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Cul-de-Sacs Then and Now

1960s:

1970s:

1990s

(N.B. all to the same scale)
The top is c1961 and the middle c1973 and the bottom c1998. What happened in that first dozen years? Planners happened. Which to do think is the nicer place to live? Which way since then has planning pushed us even further? Developers will build the second kind of crap so that they can live in the first kind of neighborhood. No, it is poor planning policies that are responsible.

Oh and just for reference from a mere 3000 miles away, the 1950s version:

There are three things that should most strike you. First FAR or floor area ratios. Second intensity of grading and concurrent uniformity and impermeability. Third the percentage of public to private space.

Woe to us what a half century of planner agenda hath wrought.