Monday, September 18, 2006

ARM Twisting

3) “When the ARMs start twisting it is the cenurbs that will see the greatest impact not the exurbs. Transit costs typically increase much faster than general inflation and marginal ridership decreases in poor economies.”

TOLurker asks; The cenurbs will have greatest impact because of the ARM time bomb knocking out marginal home owners, or the cenurb TRANSIT SYSTEMS get knocked out by the crap economy? Because I’m sure the exurb marginal ARM home owners will get screwed, too, if not worse.

A little of both. Remember, the cenurbs had only recently and only statistically marginally demographically improved in the 1990s early 2000s. THe cities are going to have a cash crunch and transit/transportation is a likely victim. Without those continuing investments the reasons people were drifting back will go away. There are a lot of compromises with urban living, not a negative, just a consideration. A general recession will unfortunately change a lot of the components; transportation above but also crime rates and costs of living. An economic contraction will cause people to "age in place." That means the stream of younger people constantly replenishing the people who marry and start families and move to the 'burbs will slow. Then there's the last 90 years of exurban diaspora. This slowed in the 90s-00s but will re-acellerate. And college is on the cusp of major changes; not good for the Bostons of the nation. Non of these are urban fatal but enough small cuts and you can still bleed to death.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I'm enjoying these exegeses for TOLurker, a little dialogue is good for everybody. Care to expand on the changes in store for college? It seems obvious to me that what's left of the middle class can't keep gutting itself financially for the sake of a mediocre education for children who are mediocre students and would just do better with internships of one kind and another, or for that matter for children who are smart kids and will learn more from reading books and blogs and not being saddled with killer student loans than they will from 4 years of bloated curriculum. But maybe you have some more developed ideas on this ...