Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
FMT LEND and the PPT
What in the world makes LEND worth 25% more today than yesterday? 140% more than a week ago?
It's a classic short squeeze. I wouldn't necessarily blame the big players, the short interest on these got so large that it was inevitable that there would be a squeeze if they managed to survive a few more weeks. It just got too easy to short them and make money, and when that happens the squeeze is inevitable.
I can't even get shares to short for LEND. And today, I got c@ckblocked on trying to short NDE. This is getting ridiculous. I had no problems shorting NDE yesterday. The daily moves by both LEND and NDE are predictable. Opens up, then trends down for the day. Of course, the housing starts number released this morning and whatever crap the sub-p execs meeting today at some resort will release as a soundbite will prop the lenders' stocks up today.
I'm dumber than a caveman and I'm still smart enough to know you don't short a rigged market. I am in some long gold futures spreads that are finally looking up.
Nigel already posted his pollyanna screed. Shocking, shocking I tell you discover his optimism in the latest numbers. Totally sophomoric analysis. He doesn't even know what he doesn't know. I rely on Calculated Risk for my housing starts analysis.
Brutal short squeeze on NDE right now. Good thing my short trades last all of 20-30 minutes. None of this all day hold to get squeezed business. Then again, I can't get shares to short anyway today.
Hey, I haven't been over to Nigel's I love Casey board in a day or so, does anyone know if he responded to my questions? I'd rather not go over there to check and give him hits if it's not necessary. Thnx.
Everyone loves to trot out the PPT to explain any and all market moves. In this case, over the course of a week, LEND sold 2.7 billion worth of loans and secured $200 million worth of financing. Since a week ago they were in the middle of a liquidity crisis and spiraling margin calls, both of those actions probably raised the value of the firm substantially. To say this move was overdone, opens up questions on whether the decline to 4 on the original liquidity crisis was also overdone... FMT got an investment from a fairly rickety bank, and is thinking about laying off some mortgage folks.
I received news today that this market may have taken its first conforming lender casualty.
Loancity, which is an a-paper conforming lender has shut its doors today.
No real reason has been give yet for the shutdown. But this contines to beg the question as to whether market issues are exclusive to the non-prime sector...
You should record it and post it on Rapidshare. Or can anyone download it? I don't want to sign up for an account at Radio Shoe or whatever it's called. Cool fun things could be done with the audio. We could make Casey a self-mockin mechanical rappa boi.
LoanCity is closed for business. Today March 20, 2007 is the last day we will be funding loans. To our customers, our staff and business partners - we thank you.
I'm not going to claim that they're a survior yet, but I think the odds are better than for someone else. Better to lose an arm or leg than the whole thing. They were in a liquidity crisis, those actions got them out of said liquidity crisis (the rest of their existing loans are backed by securitizations). Yeah they could use a capital infusion, but they had about a week to show that they could keep the doors open. I'd bet that they'll be around longer than anyone else in subprime land. The 13% loan is to allow them to hold new loans in inventory, if their business is viable they will have to find a way to sell their loans at par. If not they're kaput. They could only get cheaper financing before, because it turned over very rapidly, that's been cut off, so this is the new cost of playing the game.
At this point all of the sub-prime stocks have been taken to the cleaners. The next action will be in prime lenders with questionable practices; the CFCs of the market. And if there's even a hint that some of the big banks have been hiding their real losses (I'm looking squarely at Bear Stearns), look out below.
Alt-A lenders are next to suffer some hits. Probably not as severe a default rate as the sub-p loans, but significant none the less. This talk from the Alt-A lenders that sub-p problems are not going to affect their Alt-A loans are hogwash.
The entire MBS industry has been cut off at the knees and in their best Pythonesque Black Knight imitation all they can say is "It's only a flesh wound!"
That's way worse than a flesh wound, the change in price is recognition that the patient moved back from the mortuary to intensive care, for another week.
28 comments:
Tony you slacker!
God damn, the game has been raised.
and by a cube dweller none the less.
Actually, cube no but corporate sellout yes.
It's a classic short squeeze. I wouldn't necessarily blame the big players, the short interest on these got so large that it was inevitable that there would be a squeeze if they managed to survive a few more weeks. It just got too easy to short them and make money, and when that happens the squeeze is inevitable.
OUCH!
did you short it rob? anyone?
Snowflake
F*cktard
Condomhat
Favorite Failed Flipper
Bubba's B*tch
and now Casey the Dancing Monkey.
http://www.lessurban.com/2007/03/18/on-casey-the-dancing-monkey/
Rob, I leave it up to you and your mind-shaped-by-the-english-teacher to come up with the sufficient photo...
Good article in the NY Times today about one of Casey's gurus (Russ Whitney) and what a scam he is:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/18/realestate/keymagazine/318RUSS.t.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
I can't even get shares to short for LEND. And today, I got c@ckblocked on trying to short NDE. This is getting ridiculous. I had no problems shorting NDE yesterday. The daily moves by both LEND and NDE are predictable. Opens up, then trends down for the day. Of course, the housing starts number released this morning and whatever crap the sub-p execs meeting today at some resort will release as a soundbite will prop the lenders' stocks up today.
Your friendly neighborhood PPT at work.
I'm dumber than a caveman and I'm still smart enough to know you don't short a rigged market. I am in some long gold futures spreads that are finally looking up.
Just creating another opportunity to short the bejeezus out of it again once all the latecomers have their stops shaken.
I'm just waiting for Nigel to post a 3000 word entry on all of the "positive" housing start news.
Nigel already posted his pollyanna screed. Shocking, shocking I tell you discover his optimism in the latest numbers. Totally sophomoric analysis. He doesn't even know what he doesn't know. I rely on Calculated Risk for my housing starts analysis.
Brutal short squeeze on NDE right now. Good thing my short trades last all of 20-30 minutes. None of this all day hold to get squeezed business. Then again, I can't get shares to short anyway today.
Rob, babe...check your email please.
Hey, I haven't been over to Nigel's I love Casey board in a day or so, does anyone know if he responded to my questions? I'd rather not go over there to check and give him hits if it's not necessary. Thnx.
Everyone loves to trot out the PPT to explain any and all market moves.
In this case, over the course of a week, LEND sold 2.7 billion worth of loans and secured $200 million worth of financing. Since a week ago they were in the middle of a liquidity crisis and spiraling margin calls, both of those actions probably raised the value of the firm substantially. To say this move was overdone, opens up questions on whether the decline to 4 on the original liquidity crisis was also overdone...
FMT got an investment from a fairly rickety bank, and is thinking about laying off some mortgage folks.
bluto,
They've sold all their valuable assets below cost and now have a loan at THIRTEEN percent so they can make shaky loans at 8%. I call toast.
This just in...
I received news today that this market may have taken its first conforming lender casualty.
Loancity, which is an a-paper conforming lender has shut its doors today.
No real reason has been give yet for the shutdown. But this contines to beg the question as to whether market issues are exclusive to the non-prime sector...
FYI:
I'll be listening (gasp) to Casey's show tonight, for teh comedy, while I play Company of Heroes and make notes at funny things
You should record it and post it on Rapidshare. Or can anyone download it? I don't want to sign up for an account at Radio Shoe or whatever it's called. Cool fun things could be done with the audio. We could make Casey a self-mockin mechanical rappa boi.
12:12 anon,
i see this is the note on their website
http://www.loancity.com/
LoanCity is closed for business. Today March 20, 2007 is the last day we will be funding loans. To our customers, our staff and business partners - we thank you.
I'm not going to claim that they're a survior yet, but I think the odds are better than for someone else.
Better to lose an arm or leg than the whole thing. They were in a liquidity crisis, those actions got them out of said liquidity crisis (the rest of their existing loans are backed by securitizations). Yeah they could use a capital infusion, but they had about a week to show that they could keep the doors open. I'd bet that they'll be around longer than anyone else in subprime land.
The 13% loan is to allow them to hold new loans in inventory, if their business is viable they will have to find a way to sell their loans at par. If not they're kaput. They could only get cheaper financing before, because it turned over very rapidly, that's been cut off, so this is the new cost of playing the game.
At this point all of the sub-prime stocks have been taken to the cleaners. The next action will be in prime lenders with questionable practices; the CFCs of the market. And if there's even a hint that some of the big banks have been hiding their real losses (I'm looking squarely at Bear Stearns), look out below.
Alt-A lenders are next to suffer some hits. Probably not as severe a default rate as the sub-p loans, but significant none the less. This talk from the Alt-A lenders that sub-p problems are not going to affect their Alt-A loans are hogwash.
The entire MBS industry has been cut off at the knees and in their best Pythonesque Black Knight imitation all they can say is "It's only a flesh wound!"
That's way worse than a flesh wound, the change in price is recognition that the patient moved back from the mortuary to intensive care, for another week.
On a semi-related topic...
CRAMER REVEALS A BIT TOO MUCH
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