Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Back East
A little family business. Nothing serious. Expect to be busy. I'll check in if I can. And no, I don't get to go to the Patriots game.
Update: I'm back. My recalcitrant little brother needed to see 5 feet of scars in order to start taking care of himself and availing himself of VA benefits. Back to your regularly scheduled snark.
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68 comments:
OH MAN, you have to deal with real, like, WEATHER!
Cold, dude, cold.
While you're away please see if you can find out what happened to Casey. His website seems to be finished.
Snow plowing is good business back east (I grew up in New England.) You see a lot of guys with plows on the front of their pickups to earn extra money during the season.
While driving thru Canada one year I noticed something I hadn't even seen in New England but which I hear they have in Alaska too ... little electrical plugs built into the front of car grilles that you plug into heaters where you park to keep the engine warm when it's not on. That's gotta be some cold ... I was there in the summer so I didn't actually see these things in use.
I hate winter.
And I always thought that this was an Urban legend!
Pleather Murse said:
"While driving thru Canada one year I noticed something I hadn't even seen in New England but which I hear they have in Alaska too ... little electrical plugs built into the front of car grilles that you plug into heaters where you park to keep the engine warm when it's not on. That's gotta be some cold ... I was there in the summer so I didn't actually see these things in use."
They're called block heaters. The heater is in the engine block and you just plug in your car to keep the block slightly warmed overnight. I've never actually used mine.... but I remember these being very useful on the coldest nights for my parent's cars.
NR
I wish I had missed the Patriots game, UUUGGGLLYYYY!
have some lobstah it's wicked cheap right now, had it twice ovah christmas in maine.
Pickups with plows! Now that takes me back.
When I lived in New England, my friends from Idaho and Utah thought it was hilarious how many pickups had plow hitches on them. In the West, no self-respecting pickup owner (in some parts, that's pretty much everybody) puts a plow hitch on their pickup--it weighs the pickup down, and plowing is for, well, snowplows. Or dump trucks, or front-end loaders--or, in a pinch, a heavy-duty work pickup with flashers and a salt spreader. But NOT the nice pickup that gets washed every Saturday morning and driven to the movies on Saturday night and church on Sunday morning.
That New Englanders would buy a perfectly respectable pickup and, as their first action, attach a plow hitch was just a bit on the ridiculous side.
Block heaters are a must this time of year here in Wisconsin on any diesel if it has to sit outside overnight and it approaches zero.
I'm dying to know what Casey said.
I think he said something about allowing them to live on his island if they gave him the last of their money
I left a response to "spasmous" above, telling him to view the FalseCasey blog for updates on the inveterate con-man.
Long story short, his parents' house is in foreclosure.
No posts or comments here from Rob, nor comments at other blogs.
I think his fingers must be frozen.
;-)
Wait a minute. When Casey was presenting his island idea to his family and the family was listening so calmly, and when the family was going out together and jumping from tree to tree, the mortgage was not getting paid and the house was already in jeopardy? I can't believe it!
It seems to be so cold in that pic. I'm glad NYC has moderate winters and that we don't have to use block heaters to keep our cars warm. I don't like winters and I'm happy that I don't live in Canada or Alaska.
PS: I just posted an update on my blog for those of you who are interested... :)
Actually, it is precisely when the weather is warmer that the temperature is worse indoors and I may get sick (I'm very sensitive to temperature). When it's very cold, it's hard to go out, that's all. I can always stay indoors as much as possible with occasional short trips between the office, the apartment and the local grocery store and to the bank machine once a month. It's during much of the summer, when the air conditioning is on but the heat is not extreme enough to be necessary even for me, or at the beginning and the end of the season, when buildings are not heated, that it's the worst time. When it's cold outside, at least my office and my apartment will be heated really well.
If you were in Canada, you would just get used to lower standards, such as enjoying the few days that are really nice and the many others that are not too bad, or even just not too bad as long as you stay indoors and the heating is just fine.
I bet Rob is doing something about politics over there on the Cold Coast.
The question is, is he working the phone banks for Brown or for Coakley? Hmmm....
Scott Brown in now the US senator from Mass taking 52 to 47 percent of vote statewide.
He took the suburbs including Ted Kennedy's hometown of Hyannis.
Seems like President's Clinton, Obama, and candidate John Kerry were not able to turn the tide after Democrat Martha Cloakly had made a hash out of her campaign.
The most interesting thing is if Ted Kennedy had not rigged the state laws regarding partial term elections last year, this upset never would have happened as Scott Brown never would have had the time to mount a campaign and get name recognition.
That bad Ju-Ju will bite you every time.
h.
Karma truly is a bitch, and aligned with that observation, if Rob doesn't get his butt back blogging soon he is going to earn some.
Because then we'll start suspecting that this is a health problem, and surely in our utopian republic inflicting unnecessary worry on blogheads is some sort of crime.
Ted Kennedy is spinning in his grave... or more accurately, turning and roasting on a spit in Hell.
It's true -- Casey's parents have a summary Notice of Trustee's Sale recorded. Find Aleksey, Anna Serin on the Sacramento Recorder site, enter 2010 in the search box.
Once the Trustee Sale is noticed, is it a 30 day or 90 day clock? If I remember right, I think it's 90 days from when the ND is posted to when the TS is posted, and then either a month or three till the sale.... Either way, this is a really sad thing for the family.
At least they have a professional to guide them thorugh the process.
You think Casey will make an appearance on the court house steps like he used to? Jamba Juice in hand, jerkwater smirk on his face.
Maybe they can all live at Monica's house, as I don't think they will fit in the Jetta.
Or Casey can turn himself in ala Madoff and get 3 squares and a cot for 3-5. Maybe even be Bernie's cell mate and learn some tricks of the trade from a pro. Sweet!
Looks like Ju-Ju is working overtime.
The timeline after the notice of trustee's sale is around three weeks, from one of the "Foreclosure Help" scam sites I visited.
Their house is going back to the bank, original 1970s kitchen and all.
I genuinely feel for Casey's family. They made some mistakes, but I don't think they deserve to loose™ their house. I realize the Haterz™ feel they had it coming, but I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, and put the blame on Casey. The more you blame the family, the more Casey gets off the hook.
Now Martha Coakley, on the other hand: couldn't have happened to a more deserving person. We could smell the stink of entitlement from here in D.C. (actually not that far of a distance, as she spent just as much time here with the lobbyists as she did in Mass with the voters.)
I can't let them live at my place. I only have a one-room apartment. A relatively large room, but still.
Is there any way they can just save the house by paying? If the house is sold, they may not be able to take with them all the furniture and everything anyway, so maybe they could raise money by selling something.
So the sale would then be in early Feb -- and then Jim the Realtor would come knockin' with sweet key money....
This means the end of Casey's nice lifestyle of lounging in bed and getting up late, having the house to himself in the morning, jumping on the trampoline, easy days hanging out in Fair Oaks village, and supported by the always full refrigerator....
The Serins must have refi'd in '06 or so when zillow shows their house value had spiked to almost $400K. I had been wondering about the cost of that extravagant Seattle trip last summer that dad took the whole family on -- must have cost a fortune in heloc $$, a final fling when dad knew he was facing foreclosure....
It's California - can't they just squat for a year?
California's unemployment rate stays steady at 12.4%
The bursting of the housing bubble has flattened California's construction sector. California has shed more than 300,000 construction jobs -- nearly one-third of the industry's labor force -- since the sector peaked at 948,500 jobs in February 2006, according to state figures.
The state in 2009 probably set a record for the fewest homes produced in a single year since at least 1954.
A forecast released this week by the Associated General Contractors of America predicted that there would be no recovery in the industry nationally or in California in 2010. Nearly 1 in 4 construction workers are unemployed, the association said.
Some jobless construction workers are trying to stay afloat by pawning their equipment. Amore Pawnshop in Lynwood is brimming with jackhammers, welding machines and drills, a manager said. Many pawnshops are no longer accepting such tools because there's no market for them.
http://tinyurl.com/ycrrrdj
To find the nitty-gritty foreclosure financial details, someone local would need to visit the Recorder office in person -- Cali only has limited summary details available online.
Regulators shut down banks Friday in Florida, Missouri, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington, bringing to nine the number of bank failures so far in 2010, following 140 closures last year in the toughest economic environment since the Great Depression.
The FDIC took over the five banks, the largest of which was the Charter Bank of Sante Fe, NM with $1.2B in assets and the Columbia River Bank of Oregon with $1.1B in assets.
http://tinyurl.com/ydv67oc
Building Boom Brightens Beirut
Blocks of historic Ottoman-era buildings, once pocked by bullet holes, have been majestically restored, and new high-rise apartment towers with mirrored facades front the glittering Mediterranean, signs of an unprecedented real estate boom that is transforming Lebanon's capital.
Lebanon has seen a window of relative peace since the devastating Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006 and deadly gunbattles two years later between Hezbollah and its political rivals in the streets of Beirut. Since then, political wrangling has continued, but Lebanon's many factions have managed to keep their differences from exploding into violence.
Moreover, the financial meltdown that hit Dubai and elsewhere may have even helped Lebanon. While real estate buyers in Dubai were mostly investors and speculators depending on bank loans, the demand in Beirut is mainly from end users buying with cash.
Real estate isn't the only sector booming: Tourists have rediscovered the coastal nation with its beaches, scenic mountains and freewheeling lifestyle. This week officials announced that Lebanon attracted a record 1.8 million foreign visitors in 2009, earning an estimated $7 billion, beating the previous record of 1.4 million tourists in 1974.
Blocks of elegant buildings with apartments selling at prices ranging between $5,000 and $8,000 per square meter have arisen downtown. Some are restorations of buildings dating back to the era of 19th Century Ottoman rule, others are brand new ones on plots where old rubble had long been bulldozed away. High-rises also now stand on land reclaimed from the sea.
"It's the new Beirut. It looks nice and modern, but the problem is you have to be rich to enjoy it," said Iman Haidar, a 42-year-old mother of two walking recently through Beirut Souks downtown — a 100,000 square meter (1,076,400 square foot) outdoor shopping mall.
http://tinyurl.com/ydsuudb
I wish the bank that owns the Serin house gets shut down as well before the Serins actually lose the house. That would be so nice! They would get to keep the house and I suppose they would actually get to owe zero money for the house, since they can't owe money to a bank that doesn't exist, can they?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/why-is-california-broke.html
Does this sound familiar?
Alright, at least one post a day for a while to make up for my slacking off.
You had more than a few of us starting to worry!
I worry about Casey.
Rob, you have some atonement to do.
Monica, Casey's mooch skills are world-class and he will not be suffering. Look at it from his perspective - he has no intention of working for a living, thus a bad economy is a good economy for him. More suckers. The worse the economy gets, the more suckers there are.
For heaven's sake, worry about someone whose welfare is actually endangered by honesty and a bad economy. Give to the Salvation Army or one of those types of charities, your local soup kitchen, any organization that aids the homeless. Do something. If Casey ever ends up on the street, your actions will help him. If not, they will help someone else.
Also, I hate to burst your bubble, but the Serin family's mortgage will not disappear even if it is currently owned by a bank rather than securitized. When a bank is closed, the FDIC or another organization gets the closed bank's assets (loans), and continues to collect. Banks are closed when insolvent, and that means people who had non-insured deposits in the bank lose their funds (also contractors and other creditors of the bank). Needless to say, assets (loans) are collected as possible and the funds are given back to the individuals who did not get their money.
You show an odd and striking tendency to be Serin-centric even as the boi leaves a trail of abused victims behind. I hope you are young enough to grow out of this.
Casey is mooching off his parents. If his parents lose their house, how and where will he mooch off?
He certainly won't mooch off me. I am paying off my credit card debt. I have just finished paying off my Sears card and still owe lots on money on 3 cards, so I can't afford to help anybody else.
Moreover, how would helping some charity in Montreal help Casey in Sacramento? If I could afford it, it's Casey himself I would help. He shouldn't have to end up on the street. He's a nice guy. It's the economic system that makes people need money and takes their houses that is wrong and since earning money requires work, I can understand why Casey may want to take shortcuts. After all, I hate my job.
Monica,
There are plenty of worthwhile charities in Montreal, even if they don't specifically target money to Casey. For instance there is "Help Northern Renter's Children Afford Private High School", which has a goal of helping needy children from my home attain educational goals at Loyola High School and keeping them away from drugs like wheatgrass.
NR
I would certainly not support any project that keeps people in the clutches of the education system. My family pressured me to succeed in school and treated me badly in the hope of making that happen. Once in university, I was surprised that some women were presenting university studies as an opportunity and saying that I'm so lucky to have it, as many women in the past did not and fought for the privilege. Aside from my own parents, the economic system, too, is making education a necessity but I certainly didn't consider that an advantage compared to just marrying some man (and presumably, not being forced by my parents to succeed in school, since I would have been married off instead). I got my "education" but no husband or children, so I just feel cheated of my social and biological destiny as a woman in the name of education, career and "women's rights". So the last thing I would do is help others pursue this path.
Also, you don't seem to get it. I care about Casey himself, not about some anonymous people in need of help.
Monica - congrats on working your way through the cards. The more you pay off, the faster they pay down.
Why do you think Casey is a nice guy? From my perspective he is a pretty awful guy. It's rare for a grifter to grift his own family.
Anyway, I wouldn't worry about him. His parents are going to be living somewhere, so he will have a place to stay and mooch. They'll probably have more money once they are renters - his living standard may well go up.
I feel that he's basically a nice guy but tried all kinds of business ideas, crazy schemes and scams. So did I, so I can sympathize, although I would have the sense not to sell islands or something like that. I don't think he's mean, just naive. In some cases, such as the houses, he may even have had the right idea at the wrong time.
Some people have commented that Casey's family is not to blame, and that it is unfortunate that they are going to suffer for Casey's felonies.
I disagree. I think it is not only inevitable, but also right that Casey's family suffer from their association with the boy-genius. If you choose to stand between a bus and a sociopath, you will inevitably get run over. In addition, if it was you who taught the sociopath to stand in the street in the first place, then it's best for the bus to run over all of you ASAP.
Casey's family is heading under the bus. How much longer before it comes for him?
Some people have commented that Casey's family is not to blame
Oh, they are most certainly to blame for coddling the flaming con-man. Let's recall this video in which Casey, clearly in the throes of a *severe* manic episode, pitches his Island stupidity to his entire family. For 45 minutes, they sit there and listen and indulge him. FOR FORTY-FIVE MINUTES.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if his parents gave their approval to his multi-house criminal fraud spree. Though they hold steady jobs, they seem to have their head in the clouds just the same as their idiot son.
For the houses, that's different. The idea would have had a chance if it was not for the wrong timing. One can't blame his parents for not knowing whether the timing was right or for trusting their son to know better, since he was the one with an interest in real estate and who took real estate courses. If his idea worked, he would be rich and his scam would only be a scam in the most technical sense, since nobody would have lost money.
I was just going to ignore the "Monica" troll, I mean... "Gee, the bank will disappear and they'll just have the house free and clear!". That's lame, even for a troll.
Anyhow, I did want to comment on the idea that Casey's "idea" about houses would have worked except for bad timing - Not a chance. Flipping houses involves some work. It's not a matter of just buying the houses and selling them a short time later for more money. Successful flippers fix up the place, correct the wrongs and get the house ready for someone to walk in and occupy.
The biggest money makers are the houses that you take from "ick" to "move in ready". Usually doesn't take major rework, but does involve work. Something Casey has shown himself alergic to time and time again.
His fantasy land approach of buy house, walk around with a clipboard and pretent to be a business man, sell house for huge profits, would not work regardless of the timing.
Having successfully fixed / flipped, I can tell you there is a lot of work involved, but there are also great rewards. Casey is a failure not due to timing, he is a failure due to being lazy. He will remain a failure long after the economy turns around.
Damn it, I need a spell checker.
:(
By the way - For reading enjoyment:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Owners-54B-NY-housing-apf-2493139299.html?x=0
Failure on an epic scale... and they didn't even involve Casey. :)
Is he still "on track" to get that island by 2012?
The last incorrigible narcissist I've heard about that actually bought an island was the guru Adi Da who purchased a small island in Fiji, Naitauba, from Raymond Burr in 1983 to build an ashram and global headquarters. Since the dude died in 2008 it may well be available again ...
"Adi Da Samrajashram is Avatar Adi Da's principal Sapta Na Sannyasin Hermitage. It was the principal site of Avatar Adi Da's Teaching and Revelation Work from 1983 to 1999. Adi Da has acknowledged that, because of the intensity of His Spiritual Work there, Adi Da Samrajashram is now the primary place from which His Divine Spiritual Blessing flows to the world.
Partial list of special periods of Adi Da's Work here: Indoor Yajna (April, 1987 - March, 1988); Avataric Divine-"Self" Emergence (begun here January 11, 1986).
Partial list of Holy Sites: The Outshining Brightness; Sukra Kendra (at Lion's Lap); Aham Da Asmi Sthan; Temple Adi Da; Indigo Swan; Samraj Mahal; The Matrix; Is-Happen-That-Is; Padavara Loka; Baptized Each One; Agni Lingi Sthan; My House (Lion's Lap); Silver Hall; Picture Perfect; Owl Sandwiches; Field of Emphasis; Radiant Cows; Dome Hall (Lion's Lap).
Partial list of books compiled from Adi Da's Instruction to devotees while He was living here: The Dawn Horse Testament of the Ruchira Avatar; Ishta; Radical Devotion; Not-Two Is Peace; Transcendental Realism: The Image-Art of egoless Coincidence with Reality Itself."
http://www.adidaupclose.org/Empowered_Places/sanctuaries.html
I just wanted to chime in and say that was really fantastic work you did in Mass last Tuesday, Rob. That was the Kennedy family's seat.
Is he still "on track" to get that island by 2012?
The only islands he's on track to inhabit are Rikers or Alcatraz. :-p
Yeah, I know Alcatraz is closed, but it would be fun to re-activate it as a mortgage fraudster penal colony. Serin himself should get around 10 years, in all fairness.
Why do you Americans have to put such a large percentage of the population in prison and to have such harsh sentences? I would regret it if Casey even got one year. It's still one precious year of a human being's life, and of a nice guy at that. It's not as if he killed anybody or something. And may I ask you how being supported at taxpayer expense would be any better than being supported by family and/or supporting himself?
You're right Monica, since mortgage fraud and wire fraud aren't violent crimes, maybe he shouldn't be locked up. He's a thief at heart, so he should be hit where it hurts -- the wallet.
How about instead of jail, he's forced to pay restitution to all institutions he defrauded by having 100% of his paychecks garnished. Since he's an uneducated dolt who will only command $10/hr or less -- and he ripped off around $600K, he can work for 60,000 hours until he pays everyone back. That's around 30 years. I'd be happy with that.
And if you chime in that he would have no incentive to work under such a scenario, that's where the threat of prison time would come in. But it's irrelevant anyway, because like you said... this is America, and should he ever be charged, guaranteed prosecutors will ask for both serious jail time *and* restitution. :-)
And spare us about how ripping off banks is "harmless". Fraud is an illegal crime, no matter who or what the victims are.
But if he wouldn't be allowed to keep any money or that money would be below living expenses, how would he support himself? Where would he live? What would he eat? His parents won't be able to support him for another 30 years.
That's what homeless shelters and soup kitchens are for. :-p
No one should be allowed to steal over a half-million dollars without consequences. It should either be jail or a severe downgrade in quality of life. In short, he can go f*ck himself.
Someone is paying for those homeless shelters and soup kitchens. And I just don't think it would be morally right to make someone live under such circumstances when he's working.
In practical terms, if that was legally possible, it would encourage some individuals to flee and hide far away and others to commit crimes that would allow them to buy their freedom legally but with ill-gotten money.
From the individual's point of view, it would makes sense, even morally. Those b*** have enslaved the individual for 30 years, so the individual may feel morally justified to steal and kill for money in the hope of getting his life back (the victims' lives don't matter as far as he's concerned). After all, life is short and one only lives once!
For practical reasons (I'm a short, fat, physically unfit female), maybe I wouldn't do it, but I would feel perfectly justified if I killed, stole and embezzled to save my life, even in the sense of not having to live in a shelter and eat at soup kitchens for 30 years. As for the risk of getting caught, it could be worth the reward since 30 years at the shelter is not better than prison.
"...and of a nice guy at that."
Yup, the same nice guy that was involved in a pyramid scheme early on in his criminal career, lied on his loan apps, abandoned his wife, jeopardized his family's financial security, and demands an endless stream of consumer products while refusing to work.
Please, don't encourage the MONICA troll..
On the other hand, I'm with Lou in wondering what hand Dawg played in the Mass. Election.
Casey was very young when he was involved in the pyramid scheme. He lied on his loan apps to further his misguided business plans when lying was common although, it is true, not for so many houses at once. His wife unfairly abandoned him after he left on a whim, but temporarily, and for business. His family didn't have to cosign any loans for him. And many North-Americans demand an endless stream of consumer products. It's just that Casey is refusing to work. But who wouldn't want to just get the goods and not work? If they were rich, many people would do just that. Still, he's kind of lazy but that doesn't mean that he's not a nice guy.
We could go back to debtors prisons and workhouses for the poor... :)
BTW: Rob - what happened to a new post every day? Can we request eye candy? The current pic just looks way too cold, not the way to start the morning.
On the other hand, I'm with Lou in wondering what hand Dawg played in the Mass. Election.
I was wondering when this would come up.
I have been instructed to explain that it is pure coincidence, at best, that Senator-elect Brown (R-MA) saw a sudden last two week surge to victory and my absence.
The politics are fascinating. Massachusetts is an interesting melange with real democratic processes. Despite its' reputation for being Democrat, it regularly elects R governors and outside the Boston greater metro party loyalty is shallow and changeable. Competitive politics makes for good governance. For instance the 1st District: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/cis/cispdf/mauscongdist1.pdf is lots of rural conservative and has a D congresscritter.
BTW: Rob - what happened to a new post every day? Can we request eye candy? The current pic just looks way too cold, not the way to start the morning.
Yes, it is just two days to line them up. I'm scrambling to finish "work" so I can ski at Mammoth Friday.
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