Thursday, February 01, 2018

Insurance Mess

Losses from last fall’s wildfires in Northern, and Southern California wildfires are staggering, hitting the $12 billion dollar range.
The State Insurance Commissioner’s Office says 32,000 homes were destroyed or damaged statewide by the October and December wildfires in California.
In Ventura County, claims have been filed for 4100 homes, and $1.3 billion dollars stemming from the Thomas Fire. State officials say so far, insurers have paid out $256 million dollars.
In Santa Barbara County, the state says 1700 homes have been the subject of fire related claims. The claims seek $40 million dollars, with nine million paid out at this point.
As far as commercial properties are concerned, 524 claims have been filed seeking more than $100 million dollars to cover losses. In Santa Barbara County, 189 commercial claims were filed seeking $2.4 million dollars in compensation.
The just released numbers don’t include losses from this month’s flooding.

58 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

I assure you, everyone's insurance is going to skyrocket to the I can't pay this level.

Lawyerliz said...

This I have lived through, and still am. Maybe the new roof will have an effect on price

Lawyerliz said...

Supposed a totalled house had a claim approve but not paid and was then hit by an earthquake, which is not insured against .

LBD said...

I hope they can afford the reality of rebuilding and the hidden expense like insurance. What if some companies pull out of the market and others refuse to take on new ones.

Lawyerliz said...

That's exactly what happened in Florida after hurricane Andrew.

EngineerJim said...

>Supposed a totalled house had a claim approve but not paid and was then hit by an earthquake, which is not insured against .

Seems logical in that case that the insurance company would still have to pay up.

Lawyerliz said...

Citizens was set up. Everyone's goal was to get off it.

Lawyerliz said...

Agreed

Lawyerliz said...

But it's a way to weasel out.

Unknown said...

A few remarks on what "Smoke Damaged" means in Santa Rosa.
This particular house is in the Larkfield/Wikiup area off of Carriage lane, on a cul de sac.
One home on that Cul De sac about 100 yards away (Uphill) burned to the ground and several houses immediately downhill also turned to ashes.
On the downhill side the heat was enough to ruin the foundations, the top 3 feet or so of topsoil is being removed and disposed of as toxic waste.
Trees and shrubs in the yard were damaged or killed but the flames never came close enough to scorch or mark the siding.
Smoke infiltrated the house through the Chimney and vents.

Damage? The foundation is still good, the siding is still good and the studs and subfloors are still good.
That's it.
The roof is shot due to heat, all the wiring and plumbing were heat damaged, the interior has been gutted down to the studs, windows had vinyl frames and need replacing ...you get the idea.
A rebuild from the studs up.
A few more degrees and the house would have exploded.
It's going to be rebuilt and put on the market later this year.

For those who are curious the rule of thumb on valuing easy to build on now empty lots is 4/1.
The emphasis is on easy to rebuild on...not all are.
Pay $250K and a GOOD contractor with economies of scale can sell the new home for $1MM and make a decent profit.

Lawyerliz said...

Andrew caused 15.5b$ dollars of insured losses. I presume that figure is not inflation adjusted.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Wages up a tick but hours worked way down, over time unchanged. Still shows plenty of room and not a tight labor market. YOY corrections are not good for Black employment. Any way construction should have a good year.

Lawyerliz said...

What increases in employment would suffice to reduce the in employment rate to 4.0%?

LBD said...

What ever number you want, the public figure you chase is bogus. The support data is not there. IMO

Lawyerliz said...

Roofers are banging away, installing shingles, color we chose very nice. Cat escaped. This is just step one, but the most important one
. I think she'll come back when the noise stops.

Lawyerliz said...

Ok how much would the hours worked and salary increase plus the other factors would you find sufficient?

Lawyerliz said...

Jim the Realtor's house is what we call totalled,IMO. I think when you really look hard at the sliding, etc, it won't be fun.

Rob Dawg said...

TSA precheck was literally a walking pace no wait process. Once we dropped the car everything was so fast we have an hour. Used none of our slack time.

Tom’s description is horrific. Especially the baked soils. Rough framing is such a small part of building expenses I’d sweep it clear to the foundation.

LBD said...

When we hit the highs of hours worked about 4years ago then we have at least recovered that loss. Beings we count jobs not people this is an important factor. Participation rate and wage growth will show labor shortage. All of this would be a base for real growth, till then it is recovery. 😎

Lawyerliz said...

Wages are increasing but I agree, not enough

LBD said...

How much wage growth comes from trickle up minimum wage increase? Forced growth needs to be separate from demand growth. Gov data has holes and miss information to be cooked for some ones pleasure, Trust none of it. IMO

Firemane said...

So, LBD, is the BLS data any more or trustworthy today than in 1980 or 1990 or 2000?

Cinco-X said...

Did Liz get a chance to read "the Memo?"

Lawyerliz said...

Does a new buyer want to buy surrounded by that extent of destruction? I can only imagine. And where are you getting contractors and roofers and electricians etc from?. are the insurance companies paying out promptly? Have any houses actually been rebuilt yet?

Lawyerliz said...

No. I'm putting it off. Summarize?

LBD said...

I doubt it has ever been reliable and lacked detail. I like chart porn as it is simple to see and the trend is your friend. Methodology is constantly tweaked as they go and some leave out reality all together. Like Rent equivalent instead of true cost of home ownership, gas food, you know those to volatile to count. Lot of fudge room. Inflation for seniors is different then government workers? Then there's seasonal adjusted and not seasonal adjusted. List goes on and on. Simple and honest is what the public needs. IMO

bohica said...

Your boy casey is posting on Facebook using his real name.
Today's picture is him explaining he needed a little OJ to wash down the wheatgrass.
Some things never change.

Lawyerliz said...

Casey serin? I thought he fell off the face of the earth?

Lawyerliz said...

More importantly, the cat came back. Had to get her in before the noisey roofers started their machines again
.

Lawyerliz said...

Roofers doing a good job. Color of shinglrs very nice. Next stop light pipes. Knock down. Then painting outside and some in. Then. . .
Then it rots and the next owners can deal with it.

Rob Dawg said...

Fireworks on the beach in 30 mins. Then we collapse and catch up on lost zzzzs.

Cinco-X said...

5° F this morning...brrrrrr

Lawyerliz said...

Cat has all her parts, yay.

Lawyerliz said...

Plays were good.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

39F this morning.

Did everybody get the Memo yesterday? Where will it go and where will it stop.

Lawyerliz said...

Roofers don't seem to be showing up today, though they said they worked on Saturdays. Will soothe the cat's nerves at least.

Firemane said...

LBD,

You bring up some legitimate points. My counter would be this.

The BLS is extremely transparent with their methodology. It actually has not changed significantly since it began (except in ways that are published and footnoted).

The method CANNOT be simple, because employment isn't a simple thing to measure. As for seasonal adjustment. The BLS releases BOTH. So, anyone who wants to CAN look at the unadjusted data.

About 10 years ago, Gallup started doing their own employment survey, (without seasonal adjustments). Their trend followed the BLS trend closely for years. At one point, Gallup added the BLS seasonal adjustments, because the data was nearly useless without it. Eventually Gallup dumped their version of U3. So, they have their own version of U6.

Now, if you were complaining that the press does a horrid job of reporting the data - I will agree 100%. The ugly truth that nobody wants to admit is that gathering data for a country of 330 million people is incredibly hard. Whether the data is gathered by the BLS or the NAR or Gallup or ADP ... there are always limitations to the completeness and accuracy.

And while there are limitations and issues, I have followed employment data very closely since 2009, and examined lots of the historical data (including reading the footnotes), and in all that time, I have never seen ANY indication that the data has ever been manipulated for political ends.

If one understands the limitations gathering data for a nation this size (as you said - the trend is your friend), then the data that is available can be very useful ... IMO.

Lawyerliz said...

666!!! Oh, my.

Lawyerliz said...

Agreed.

Lawyerliz said...

It always bothers me that decreased unemployment and increased wages are a bod thing, because the cause inflation, not the powers that be want inflation. I don't get it.

Lawyerliz said...

A bad thing.. they cause. . But the powers..

Rob Dawg said...

80/70 currently 72 here in Honolulu. Some high end shopping. The university rainforest preserve and then some really low end shopping at goodwill for clubs and snorkeling gear.

Don’t laugh. $30 /set of decent clubs w/bag, play a round without a $20-40 rental fee then donate the equipment to Goodwill for a tax deduction.

Afraid this high rise Waikiki beachfront would be as noisy as a train station compared to where we live but it went to sleep at 11pm and is a morgue now at 6am. The demographics are fascinating. More on that later.

Rob Dawg said...

Hey Firemane. Good points all. I would have made a lot except I’m on vacation. Thanks. I would add that seasonal adjustments lag. I just ignore January, weekly and monthly. The adjustment gets wildly inaccurate at trend inflection points. The downside of trend is your friend.

Rob Dawg said...

PTB like asset inflation and consumption inflation and one other thing.

Wage inflation runs counter to the objective of devaluing labor relative to capital. Part of the Great Bifurcation.

That other thing? Goods and services value added compression. That’s a huge unappreciated tool of the 0.1%ers.

Rob Dawg said...

Technically 665.75 for plausible deniability.

Lawyerliz said...

Hahahahaha. . . Maybe.

Lawyerliz said...

What is value added compression?

Lawyerliz said...

Why do the very very rich begrudge, the lower middle class getting to the mid middle class?

Rob Dawg said...

Pump your own gas.

Rob Dawg said...

Limited resource allocation at the highest level. The 10% might not be able to afford all the finer things but 100x enough of them can afford enough certain finer things as to annoy the 0.1%. My official room rate is $589/night.

Lawyerliz said...

I did pump my own gas for the first half of my life. No big deal. Bet Trump doesn't know how to. Roomba is getting up dust. Maybe I'll forget the vacuum cleaner
Wasn't there something about Bus notknowing how food was checked out at the supermarket?

Lawyerliz said...

Bush not knowing.

Lawyerliz said...

And thus unavailable to those richer than you.

LBD said...

Firemane, We agree on the miss use of data by news and politicians. To listen to Trump everybody has a job and making good bucks. Not much if any has changed since Obummer, when you look at hours worked dropped. I am not well educated and can see the real the supporting data doesn't support the U-3 pushed.

Never trust the only game in town, the government. You know the ones who can lie to you but you can't lie to them.

Missing from all the data is the black market and where does the 1099's get added in. Then there is how many states fail to report on time and then catch up. At best the trend line is an inaccurate moving target with corrections.

So it is all a guide that can be cherry picked and interpreted in many ways. America deserves better, starting with honest and complete education system. IMO

Good conversation, I like it. :)

LBD said...

LL, Those who work for less know what they are worth.

Lawyerliz said...

Anybody even try to figure out the amount of the black and grey market. I personally think it's huge.

Rob Dawg said...

7.4 mile walk. All of Waikiki Beach, the aquarium and most of the shopping centers in between. Another three miles in a bit.

Lawyerliz said...

I'd rather swim .