Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, June 14, 2018
Even More Photos from Vacation
Leadville, CO. Don't let the name fool you. This place was filthy rich in all kinds of minerals and metals.
A real rock hammer.
They grow foxes big in Leadville. Channel Islands foxes aren't as large as this guy's tail.
Mostly float not enough to swim laps but you can go 14' underwater with a light pus off the wall. Fun when the grand kid comes to visit. We have our own turtles here, used to see them more when we had the lake house.
Yes Animal buffet is the same here. Wild life from mice to deer is the norm.
New cars are too damn complicated to drive. Fred the Second, now deceased, was very good at catching rodents and lining them up by the door. I had to say good kitty. Very generous of.him.
The fact total car sales peaked last September dampens any fears I might have generated regarding sub-prime becoming a genuine problem with cars. The general American pattern of buy when the last one is paid off means we could go mostly sideways for some time, but 17 million is pretty much the limit for sales, and looking back 7 years, there's no reason to think there will be any major shift in auto sales (either direction) before the next recession, IMO.
We hit 16 million sales back in early 2014, so based on normal 4-7 year car ownership cycle, (some of the people on this board being WAAAAY outside the norm), we should bounce happily along in the 16-17 million band until we start seeing layoffs. If My FECES theory is correct, that could be in Q4 this year. If the mass punditry is correct, not until 2020.
I'm personally more interested in the coming GDP reports.
Q2 is looking to be a monster. Back in February I pegged Q2 as the peak for 2018, (when most of the tax-cut spending would materialize). But, my initial stab was 2.5, which I revised up to 2.8 last month. There's a lot of disagreement from the various predictors, but the upside is 4.8!!!
What I'm wondering is what the psychological impact of a REALLY big GDP number is going to have both economically and politically?
If we get say, a 4.3 GDP print at the end of July ... that paints a really rosy picture, the kind that people react to. Since Q3 print isn't until the very end of October, that means 90% of the mid-term campaign is going to run with the best GDP print since 2003. Even if Q3 drops back to 'the new norm' (2.2?), it probably doesn't move the political dial.
You know my opinion. For process reasons Q1 is printing too low and Q2 too high. I expect even more this year with an honest tax cut showing up in the economy. I will continue to average over H1 for a more realistic number. Still, You are correct that a Q2 4.8 is possible.
Auto sales mix is driven by gas prices. Until gas gets close to 4 bucks again, SUVs own the market. That's precisely why Ford is (IMO, stupidly), dumping almost every sedan line they've got.
The long term trend to SUVs is undeniable. We like our big, roomy, gas guzzlers. And with enough Americans buying into the Shaq plan for gas economy ...
Five dollar diesel is my line. My old beater is a 98 and 142K. I see many with 250-500K miles and still going, maybe a transmission but not the engine. So maybe mine will get me off this planet. Dinner!
Don't worry FC has dumped almost all of it's cars prepping for sale to another foreign manufacturer. FC has reintroduced Fiat and Alfa for car lines. GM dumped Opel Vauxhall to Peugeot and still has Dawoo now called GM Korea. China is starting to supply more parts through out the US. Ford can quickly import from their world wide sources as well.
My problem is debt and the ignorance taught about it. How much a month ends up costing us who do the right thing. IMO.
DEVIL'S ADVOCATE... Auto market is stretched thinner than rice paper. This may be THE forever top for the industry as a whole.
#1: They've lowered standards, stretched terms and pushed leasing to the fringes to get sales that still require near record incentives to close. Now the channels are stuffed just as lease returns are flooding back in and the subprime loan defaults are ramping up. #2: Millenials don't have the same connection with autos as their parents did. The UBER generation will happily abandon payments & insurance for a full range of ready, self-driving vehicles at their beck and call. #3: The demographic cliff ensures that there'll be more sellers than buyers for a decade. Those classics for which nostalgic boomers have paid top dollars will be in for a long slow downward burn. #4: Gas will return to SUV-unattractive levels once the never-profitable shale business runs out of financing.
Will the electric car catch on? Probably not for decades. People will buy what works for them and can afford credit or cash.
Kids have little interest in cars as it takes hard work and money they would rather spend it on other things. Electronics is the new hot rod in their world playing games and how fast is your phone or game set up.
We discussed how we are not in the profile of credit maxed out and buying stuff. Lots of assets and cash is counter productive to the CONsumer driven economy. Just the way we are. Worked hard for it.
IG report is like data to me a lot of skating around real facts to draw what ever conclusion you wish to see. My point is Hillary and the Clinton crime family should have been called on the carpet long ago. Comey had intent or he was the biggest idiot.
The "classics" road vehicle market is way beyond reason. I'm old and it has ALWAYS been beyond reason. I strongly suggest that there can never be correlation twixt "everyday using vehicles" and "saving/enjoying vehicles." They aren't traveling in the same orbits.
Happy Fathers Day, all you fathers. I always felt a bit sad on father's Day, because my father abandoned me, and i didn't like him for some very good reasons when I met him.
. Now more so, because I know my son will make a great father.
Pardons are just part of the game. Political which hunts today is more about taking down the other side then real crimes. Sad petty lying to the government is unlawful but the government lies to us.
There are prolly many laws against it, but why not give parents with kids the choice of turning around and going back to Mexico with kids or being separated. Their choice
My thought as well. Given the choice of getting their kids back and being deported would they? Pretty sure they know the game and are willing to play it. Besides what is the big deal anyway? kids are separated when parents go to jail for breaking the law and military families are as well. Lib rant on pumped beyond reality for political purpose. IMO
If laws where functioning properly this would not be a problem. The fact the laws are ignored and we as citizen are held to the letter of the law should be very concerning. All politics and when it blows over the kids will be forgotten. DACA? IMO
50 comments:
Not a coyote?
Good Morning!
To bad the ruined Central city Blackhawk and cripple creek with casinos.
The new pool pump is a monster even the vacuum works great. Next will be a fountain or water fall.
Do you ever swim?
You definitely need one of my turtles on its own island. 🐢🐢🐢
Don't know for sure but id LBD's neighborhood is anything like the Dawghaus then the word for any kind of outside pet/animal is; "buffet."
Everybody liking these low intensity posts? Should I alternate with econ content?
Mostly float not enough to swim laps but you can go 14' underwater with a light pus off the wall. Fun when the grand kid comes to visit. We have our own turtles here, used to see them more when we had the lake house.
Yes Animal buffet is the same here. Wild life from mice to deer is the norm.
Some more economy would be nice. Subprime loans usually the first to implode is of interest to me.
Watching; 1 new car sales and 2 average new car loan size and rate and 3 subprime default rates and vintage.
Yes.
Err turtles have shells. And Florida has alligators,.and pythons. Both of which are willing to chomp and squeeze
New cars are too damn complicated to drive. Fred the Second, now deceased, was very good at catching rodents and lining them up by the door. I had to say good kitty. Very generous of.him.
I bet our turtles are bigger.
The fact total car sales peaked last September dampens any fears I might have generated regarding sub-prime becoming a genuine problem with cars. The general American pattern of buy when the last one is paid off means we could go mostly sideways for some time, but 17 million is pretty much the limit for sales, and looking back 7 years, there's no reason to think there will be any major shift in auto sales (either direction) before the next recession, IMO.
We hit 16 million sales back in early 2014, so based on normal 4-7 year car ownership cycle, (some of the people on this board being WAAAAY outside the norm), we should bounce happily along in the 16-17 million band until we start seeing layoffs. If My FECES theory is correct, that could be in Q4 this year. If the mass punditry is correct, not until 2020.
I'm personally more interested in the coming GDP reports.
Q2 is looking to be a monster. Back in February I pegged Q2 as the peak for 2018, (when most of the tax-cut spending would materialize). But, my initial stab was 2.5, which I revised up to 2.8 last month. There's a lot of disagreement from the various predictors, but the upside is 4.8!!!
What I'm wondering is what the psychological impact of a REALLY big GDP number is going to have both economically and politically?
If we get say, a 4.3 GDP print at the end of July ... that paints a really rosy picture, the kind that people react to. Since Q3 print isn't until the very end of October, that means 90% of the mid-term campaign is going to run with the best GDP print since 2003. Even if Q3 drops back to 'the new norm' (2.2?), it probably doesn't move the political dial.
> was very good at catching rodents and lining them up by the door. I had to say good kitty. Very generous of.him.
Those weren't "presents", those were WARNINGS!
> Q2 is looking to be a monster.
You know my opinion. For process reasons Q1 is printing too low and Q2 too high. I expect even more this year with an honest tax cut showing up in the economy. I will continue to average over H1 for a more realistic number. Still, You are correct that a Q2 4.8 is possible.
> we should bounce happily along in the 16-17 million band until we start seeing layoffs.
The content shift is what bears watching. Profitable SUVs/Light trucks still sell or a rise in high mileage vehicle sales?
> normal 4-7 year car ownership cycle, (some of the people on this board being WAAAAY outside the norm)....
Lol. '98, '06, '06, '06. Lowest with 157k miles.
Full disclosure. The Suzuki GS1100ES hails from 1983 but has very few miles.
Auto sales mix is driven by gas prices.
Until gas gets close to 4 bucks again, SUVs own the market.
That's precisely why Ford is (IMO, stupidly), dumping almost every sedan line they've got.
The long term trend to SUVs is undeniable. We like our big, roomy, gas guzzlers. And with enough Americans buying into the Shaq plan for gas economy ...
https://slate.com/culture/2018/04/shaqs-gas-tank-theory-proves-inside-the-nba-is-the-best-math-show-on-tv.html
... maybe even four dollar gas won't make a dent.
Five dollar diesel is my line. My old beater is a 98 and 142K. I see many with 250-500K miles and still going, maybe a transmission but not the engine. So maybe mine will get me off this planet. Dinner!
> That's precisely why Ford is (IMO, stupidly), dumping almost every sedan line they've got.
Ford is not stupid in this way. They are moving small sedan elsewhere but can bring them here with no effort.
This smart move in no way erases their epic fails in near every other aspect.
Don't worry FC has dumped almost all of it's cars prepping for sale to another foreign manufacturer. FC has reintroduced Fiat and Alfa for car lines. GM dumped Opel Vauxhall to Peugeot and still has Dawoo now called GM Korea. China is starting to supply more parts through out the US. Ford can quickly import from their world wide sources as well.
My problem is debt and the ignorance taught about it. How much a month ends up costing us who do the right thing. IMO.
DEVIL'S ADVOCATE... Auto market is stretched thinner than rice paper. This may be THE forever top for the industry as a whole.
#1: They've lowered standards, stretched terms and pushed leasing to the fringes to get sales that still require near record incentives to close. Now the channels are stuffed just as lease returns are flooding back in and the subprime loan defaults are ramping up.
#2: Millenials don't have the same connection with autos as their parents did. The UBER generation will happily abandon payments & insurance for a full range of ready, self-driving vehicles at their beck and call.
#3: The demographic cliff ensures that there'll be more sellers than buyers for a decade. Those classics for which nostalgic boomers have paid top dollars will be in for a long slow downward burn.
#4: Gas will return to SUV-unattractive levels once the never-profitable shale business runs out of financing.
Why not done discussion of the IG report
We retirees drive very little compared to before. Gas prices ars not relevant.
Gas prices here are going down.
Good Morning!
Will the electric car catch on? Probably not for decades. People will buy what works for them and can afford credit or cash.
Kids have little interest in cars as it takes hard work and money they would rather spend it on other things. Electronics is the new hot rod in their world playing games and how fast is your phone or game set up.
We discussed how we are not in the profile of credit maxed out and buying stuff. Lots of assets and cash is counter productive to the CONsumer driven economy. Just the way we are. Worked hard for it.
IG report is like data to me a lot of skating around real facts to draw what ever conclusion you wish to see. My point is Hillary and the Clinton crime family should have been called on the carpet long ago. Comey had intent or he was the biggest idiot.
GDP growth 3.8% in the 2nd quarter? Wow. Now let's make sure it's shared up and down the percentiles, leaving out increases for the top 5%.
The "classics" road vehicle market is way beyond reason. I'm old and it has ALWAYS been beyond reason. I strongly suggest that there can never be correlation twixt "everyday using vehicles" and "saving/enjoying vehicles." They aren't traveling in the same orbits.
Your fathers era model A and T are long gone so will today's classics except those of museum quality.
We bought Fords. So did I for a while .
GM guy pretty much except my first fast car was a Dodge. MBZ was my favorite luxury car (6 of them) but Chevy mostly.
Maniford finally in jail. Did his thing even while he was under house arrest. Nerve and stupidity.
Will T pardon him? Or, Blagovich?
Or, the rest of them?
Happy Fathers Day!
Happy Fathers Day, all you fathers.
I always felt a bit sad on father's Day, because my father abandoned me, and i didn't like him for some very good reasons when I met him.
. Now more so, because I know my son will make a great father.
Happy Fathers Day!
Mine started with waffles, eggs and bacon. Yum!
Pardons are just part of the game. Political which hunts today is more about taking down the other side then real crimes. Sad petty lying to the government is unlawful but the government lies to us.
Another shooting? Another? At least the perp is the only one dead.
Demos are beginning to refuse $$$$from specisl interests.
Good Morning!
Cool week ahead 70'sf
Gangbangers in NJ?
Dems probably found another avenue to funnel money out of sight. Bitcoin?
Market is not happy this AM. Rich for a day or two. LOL!
There are prolly many laws against it, but why not give parents with kids the choice of turning around and going back to Mexico with kids or being separated. Their choice
My thought as well. Given the choice of getting their kids back and being deported would they? Pretty sure they know the game and are willing to play it. Besides what is the big deal anyway? kids are separated when parents go to jail for breaking the law and military families are as well. Lib rant on pumped beyond reality for political purpose. IMO
It really is a big deal LBD. And those kids are in brain draining sterile circumstances. Even now they could be given the choice.
I can think 2 things at the same time.
If laws where functioning properly this would not be a problem. The fact the laws are ignored and we as citizen are held to the letter of the law should be very concerning. All politics and when it blows over the kids will be forgotten. DACA? IMO
But they aren't .
That is why T got elected.
New post.
Post a Comment