Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Tuesday, August 21, 2018
Here Come the Real Reductions
Seems the sellers are waking to their asking for a price too far. Both of these are also examples of lower prices per square foot.
I'm still of the opinion that these are not discounts but merely giving up on the expectation that the sellers be granted the next years' appreciation.
Here's an MLS snapshot of Marin and Sonoma Counties. New Listings 94 Back on the Market 29 Price reductions 98 Opened escrows 63 Sold 67 This rolls, and covers the previous 24 hours.
IMO, the Manafort result not too surprising, (the number of "hung" was a little higher than I expected, but it wasn't any "not guilty").
The much bigger deal (pun intended) was Cohen admitting he broke the law "at the Candidate's direction."
Mind you, I think most of the Trump Base have backed themselves so far into an intellectual corner that they are beyond hope of changing their mind. I think Trump is correct that Trump could gun someone down on live TV in the middle of NY, and they wouldn't flinch in their loyalty. So, I don't expect the Cohen confession will actually change anything, (including Trump popularity or the mid-term results).
Admitting it is one thing, what you do in the private voting both is something else. Maybe. I think the house will flip. Practivcally no black people will vote for him, it's a question of getting them out there.
I think the backing for T was he wasn't one of establishment and support came from being honest about what many Americans saw as continued failures of both parties. Many like me was a vote against the Clinton Crime family. I don't Hillary's base is any different in their blind loyalty.
T today is fighting the Repubs that never wanted him any more then the Dems.
Lying Lawyer suddenly gets honest? I am very skeptical of that. A major lying tax cheat as well? Not a fan of lets make a deal in another direction, especially with liars.
If they followed us around for a day I wonder how many laws we would break?
When Podesta and the Clinton DNC murdered Seth Rich for releasing Hillary emails, exposing her corruption..an nobody got convivcon of anything... it was a deal breaker for me.
History, special elections this cycle, and polling thus far all point to the Democrats taking the House. But, it's still a long way to November.
My current guesstimate is: 230(D)-205(R) in the House. I've been making estimates based primarily on the generic ballot polling, (adjusting for incumbency and gerrymandering) for the past 8 months. There was a brief point where the generic ballot got close enough where I had the Republicans holding the House (barely). But, for the most part, the Dems look to be in the 220-230 range for seats based on my research.
The Senate, while "possible" to flip, I see as unlikely. The map is simply too hard. I think they'd need a couple of "legitimate rape" or "I am not a witch" type gaffes (and none of their own) to win the Senate.
Oddly enough, 538 just introduced their first (much more complex) estimate for the House, and their numbers coincidentally ended up almost exactly where mine currently are.
Wonder what he was doing between the bar closing and 4 a m? Wonder how he could afford a nice DC neighborhood? I don't see significant proof of anything Did the DC police investigate anything? Caliber of gun? Ring doorbells in area for witnesses?
Rich's parents condemned the conspiracy theorists and said that these individuals were exploiting their son's death for political gain, and their spokesperson called the conspiracy theorists "disgusting sociopaths". They requested a retraction and apology from Fox News after the network promoted the conspiracy theory, and sent a cease and desist letter to the investigator Fox News used. The investigator stated that he had no evidence to back up the claims which Fox News attributed to him. Fox News issued a retraction, but did not apologize or publicly explain what went wrong.
So, even Fox News doesn't believe Seth Rich leaked the e-mails.
Just fyi, there were roughly 30,000 suicides per year in the US in the '90s. Today there are roughly 45,000 suicides per year in the US.
Men die by suicide at 3.5 times the rate of women. (men use guns almost exclusively).
Women "attempt" suicide 2x the rate of men. (women tend to go with pills or poison).
A firearm is used in 50% of all suicides.
The rate of suicide is highest in middle age - middle aged white men in particular. (there are less pronounced spikes in mid teens and just after retirement).
There are more than 2 suicides per homicide in the US each year.
My current guesstimate is: 230(D)-205(R) in the House. I've been making estimates based primarily on the generic ballot polling, (adjusting for incumbency and gerrymandering) for the past 8 months.
I see D215-R220 (at most and dropping) from exactly the same data. The Dems have struggled to poll registration and history shows incumbents get a boost when the polls shift to head-to-head.
I do wonder still about Vince Foster from time to time.
Vince killed himself in his office in the White house and was removed and posed across the Potomac. I understand what happened and am not thinking "justice and truth" serves any sort of worthwhile goal.
One of my adjustments for incumbency is to adjust to the 38(R)-18(D) retirement boost the Dems are getting.
That's 56 open seats (so no incumbency edge).
But, there's a large swath of 'not saying' (~12%) in the generic ballot polling. I expect that to shrink as Election Day draws closer, but that's a pretty big pile of voters that could go any of 3 ways, (left, right or stay home).
Honestly, my guess would be (absent other factors - like Mueller revelations) for the generic ballot gap to narrow over the next two months. And, as I noted, there was at least one week where I had the (R) coming out on top (219-216, IIRC). So, by no means do I think it's going to be a Democrat walkover. But, I'm not adjusting for what I think the generic ballot might look like in 2 months.
As for head-to-head polling ... I'll leave that to the big guys to parse, because only a small slice of house elections get any genuine polling.
I'm dealing with having too many checking accounts, (need to shut down my Mom's, which I'm a co-owner of).
Also still waffling with adding an investment account to my current Standard IRA account, not counting my two different 401k accounts, awaiting distribution from my Mom's 401k account.
And knowing when I do my taxes next year, if itemizing doesn't exceed the new standard deduction (I expect it'll be really close for me), then going Roth IRA will make more sense, (so I can have two different IRAs to go with my 2 401ks).
Of course, I might get picked up full time, which will make me eligible for 401k again ... so I'll get to make the choice of rolling over my existing 401ks into the new one, or moving forward with 3.
Im trying to spend it. . . In the trying. The hub was moaning about paying some $$$ to edit his novel. How much, I ask. He specifies an amount with is entirely reasonable. So I say ok, but why do you think it's too expensive? It doesn't come close to to exhausting our resources in any way But he was somewhat poor as a kid, and we were poorish when first married, so that has sunk in so far. . . On the other hand we are spending on the home repair. How much is a lexus, so I can see use Lexus units?
Hyundai unit $20-$25,000. Small bathroom or new flooring. Toyota unit $30-$40,000 Roof and landscaping. Lexus unit $60-$70,000 full past the studs kitchen or moderate whole house update.
By my count about half are solidly red or solidly blue regardless. Call it 16 Republican and 14 Democrat districts that never change hands.
I agree that the rest have no incumbency edge and also have the mid term against the majority party bias as well as the demographic flow towards the Democrats.
Is it possible to buy tickets to see a Space-X booster landing up close? Tell me your dear husband would never pay for it for hiself or that he would never forget the experience.
Or you could come out to California and see what all the fuss is about. Cinco had a good time and we only had a day.
No up close booster landings. I can't tell so many launches He's seen on the order of 350 launches a lot from the rooftop of his building, me, about 100 over the years. Can't buy a landing ticket, because of location. We do go out and watch. Our neighbors don't seem to bother.
We are enjoying a simple life and not trying to spend our money, the kids get to do that but I think they will be wise with it and one is on her way to her own success. :)
I will convey your offer. It's written for a general public. He would like your comments. It's 154 pages long. How does he get it to you? He has a pdf file he can send.
I wrote my own sci-fi novel in the early '90s, (but it's set in the Star Trek universe, and so became un-publishable, since they stopped accepting new ST writers.
I'd be happy to review/critique.
When I was writing mine, I was part of a sci-fi / fantasy writer's group, "The Revisionaries", which absolutely helped improve my writing in general and the final product significantly.
Just in case you're interested, my basic methodology is as follows:
1) Remove the open seats. (56) 2) Determine diff between (D) incumbent vs. (R) incumbent seats (+29 R) after removing the retirements on both sides. 3) Adjust for gerrymandering (based on recent elections 51% of vote wins 55% of seats for (R), which is about 16 seats, which is about 4 seats per % of the vote - so, in theory, a 50/50 vote with no incumbents would be R+16 from center point, (217.5 + 16 = 233.5). 4) Incumbency edge is about 10%.
So - my calculation is basically:
Open seats (56) + equal incumbent seats (175*2) = 406 seats where incumbency washes or is not a factor.
Subtract 4% from whatever the generic ballot difference:
Generic ballot = (D) +7.8, becomes (D) +3.8. I assume each point is worth 4 extra seats. So +3.8 = +15 seats to Dems (for incumbent-neutral seats).
203+15 = 218 (D) - 188 (R)
Of the 29 incumbent seats, 7.8 generic ballot - 10% incumbent edge = -2.2 or 2.2 positive edge for (R) in these 29 seats. My best estimate is that each 0.8 difference for incumbency edge moves 1 seat from center. So 2.2 is a 3 seat swing from center of the 29 incumbent seats out there. 11(D) - 18(R) - (I tend to round in favor of who has the edge at any step).
218 + 11 = 229 (D) - 206 (R).
Note: Mostly, I rely on 538 for my raw numbers. I prefer their methodology and explanations to RCP, etc. I have also tweaked my approach as I learn more about the historical, (initially I was under-stating incumbency edge as only 5%). But, for the most part, if the Generic ballot stays about 6, the Dems end up on top. If the generic ballot drops below 6, it's a true tossup to about 5, and below 5, it's pretty much an (R) lock.
This method, while not perfect, avoids having to keep track of 435 different "how red-blue" ratings for each district, or dealing with re-districting issues.
Firemane, many thanks for the formula. I too use a 4% discount to generic ballots. THat's why you've heard me point out the cases where incumbents cannot even poll registration.
62 comments:
I'm beginning to see this in Sonoma County.
It's the end of the season with the kids back in school.
I'm still of the opinion that these are not discounts but merely giving up on the expectation that the sellers be granted the next years' appreciation.
Market still afire in Raleigh.
I got only "9" entries with "reduced price"
Of course, here we're talking $111/sq ft.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Raleigh-NC/pmf,pf_pt/125167168_zpid/54047_rid/reduced-price_att/globalrelevanceex_sort/36.329509,-77.699432,35.242254,-79.553375_rect/8_zm/
Cohen has struck a deal. Don't know what.
My house goes up and down on Zillow. Randomly, seemingly.
All sides must be sweating on Manaford.
Crooked Democrats are the only ones sweating... Poor Seth Rich. Democrats are nothing but mobsters.
Guilty! Guilty! No Democrat sweat
Good nite.
Here's an MLS snapshot of Marin and Sonoma Counties.
New Listings 94
Back on the Market 29
Price reductions 98
Opened escrows 63
Sold 67
This rolls, and covers the previous 24 hours.
My inpression is the back on the mkt thing isn't used much in Florida as a sales trick .
Good middle of the nite/morning.
Contracts contuing to work. We plan on early voting today.
Contractors.
COhen sez he'd never accept a pardon.
Good Morning!
Real Estate only goes up, this must be a pause.
It will get going again soon. ;)
The political witch hunt steps up, just like White Water.
IMO, the Manafort result not too surprising, (the number of "hung" was a little higher than I expected, but it wasn't any "not guilty").
The much bigger deal (pun intended) was Cohen admitting he broke the law "at the Candidate's direction."
Mind you, I think most of the Trump Base have backed themselves so far into an intellectual corner that they are beyond hope of changing their mind. I think Trump is correct that Trump could gun someone down on live TV in the middle of NY, and they wouldn't flinch in their loyalty. So, I don't expect the Cohen confession will actually change anything, (including Trump popularity or the mid-term results).
Wakies wakies everybody
Admitting it is one thing, what you do in the private voting both is something else. Maybe. I think the house will flip. Practivcally no black people will vote for him, it's a question of getting them out there.
Ok, speak up: will the house flip or not?
“My wife, my daughter, my family come first.” Understand Cohen’s motivation. Mueller was just threatening him.
I think the backing for T was he wasn't one of establishment and support came from being honest about what many Americans saw as continued failures of both parties. Many like me was a vote against the Clinton Crime family. I don't Hillary's base is any different in their blind loyalty.
T today is fighting the Repubs that never wanted him any more then the Dems.
Lying Lawyer suddenly gets honest? I am very skeptical of that. A major lying tax cheat as well? Not a fan of lets make a deal in another direction, especially with liars.
If they followed us around for a day I wonder how many laws we would break?
I don't think Dems are very strong and Repubs may shoot themselves in the foot. So I am not sure.
When Podesta and the Clinton DNC murdered Seth Rich for releasing Hillary emails, exposing her corruption..an nobody got convivcon of anything... it was a deal breaker for me.
Nothing involving millions of dollars!
Speeding.
I specialize in pen stealing.
History, special elections this cycle, and polling thus far all point to the Democrats taking the House. But, it's still a long way to November.
My current guesstimate is: 230(D)-205(R) in the House. I've been making estimates based primarily on the generic ballot polling, (adjusting for incumbency and gerrymandering) for the past 8 months. There was a brief point where the generic ballot got close enough where I had the Republicans holding the House (barely). But, for the most part, the Dems look to be in the 220-230 range for seats based on my research.
The Senate, while "possible" to flip, I see as unlikely. The map is simply too hard. I think they'd need a couple of "legitimate rape" or "I am not a witch" type gaffes (and none of their own) to win the Senate.
Oddly enough, 538 just introduced their first (much more complex) estimate for the House, and their numbers coincidentally ended up almost exactly where mine currently are.
Wonder what he was doing between the bar closing and 4 a m?
Wonder how he could afford a nice DC neighborhood?
I don't see significant proof of anything
Did the DC police investigate anything? Caliber of gun? Ring doorbells in area for witnesses?
Agree on Senate
Hmmm, state legislators are pretty important
Regarding Seth Rich:
Rich's parents condemned the conspiracy theorists and said that these individuals were exploiting their son's death for political gain, and their spokesperson called the conspiracy theorists "disgusting sociopaths". They requested a retraction and apology from Fox News after the network promoted the conspiracy theory, and sent a cease and desist letter to the investigator Fox News used. The investigator stated that he had no evidence to back up the claims which Fox News attributed to him. Fox News issued a retraction, but did not apologize or publicly explain what went wrong.
So, even Fox News doesn't believe Seth Rich leaked the e-mails.
Frankly I missed the whole Seth Rich thing. I try, but I can't keep up with everything.
I do wonder still about Vince Foster from time to time.
Just fyi, there were roughly 30,000 suicides per year in the US in the '90s. Today there are roughly 45,000 suicides per year in the US.
Men die by suicide at 3.5 times the rate of women. (men use guns almost exclusively).
Women "attempt" suicide 2x the rate of men. (women tend to go with pills or poison).
A firearm is used in 50% of all suicides.
The rate of suicide is highest in middle age - middle aged white men in particular. (there are less pronounced spikes in mid teens and just after retirement).
There are more than 2 suicides per homicide in the US each year.
When I go, I hope it's from:
Cause of Death.
The grandson is holding up his head, something others don't deserve to do.
Cause of death choice: Peacefully in my sleep unaware of the screams of my passengers.
My current guesstimate is: 230(D)-205(R) in the House. I've been making estimates based primarily on the generic ballot polling, (adjusting for incumbency and gerrymandering) for the past 8 months.
I see D215-R220 (at most and dropping) from exactly the same data. The Dems have struggled to poll registration and history shows incumbents get a boost when the polls shift to head-to-head.
I do wonder still about Vince Foster from time to time.
Vince killed himself in his office in the White house and was removed and posed across the Potomac. I understand what happened and am not thinking "justice and truth" serves any sort of worthwhile goal.
I specialize in pen stealing.
Closed another six digit transaction on Monday. Nice guy said "keep the pen as a souvenir" and we replied; "no thanks, we got lots."
First world problems; too many pens.
One of my adjustments for incumbency is to adjust to the 38(R)-18(D) retirement boost the Dems are getting.
That's 56 open seats (so no incumbency edge).
But, there's a large swath of 'not saying' (~12%) in the generic ballot polling. I expect that to shrink as Election Day draws closer, but that's a pretty big pile of voters that could go any of 3 ways, (left, right or stay home).
Honestly, my guess would be (absent other factors - like Mueller revelations) for the generic ballot gap to narrow over the next two months. And, as I noted, there was at least one week where I had the (R) coming out on top (219-216, IIRC). So, by no means do I think it's going to be a Democrat walkover. But, I'm not adjusting for what I think the generic ballot might look like in 2 months.
As for head-to-head polling ... I'll leave that to the big guys to parse, because only a small slice of house elections get any genuine polling.
I feel you, Dawg.
I'm dealing with having too many checking accounts, (need to shut down my Mom's, which I'm a co-owner of).
Also still waffling with adding an investment account to my current Standard IRA account, not counting my two different 401k accounts, awaiting distribution from my Mom's 401k account.
And knowing when I do my taxes next year, if itemizing doesn't exceed the new standard deduction (I expect it'll be really close for me), then going Roth IRA will make more sense, (so I can have two different IRAs to go with my 2 401ks).
Of course, I might get picked up full time, which will make me eligible for 401k again ... so I'll get to make the choice of rolling over my existing 401ks into the new one, or moving forward with 3.
First world problems indeed.
With money comes responsibility. We went from 7 banks to 5 when they raised the FDIC to $250K. Now down to 3 and a credit union.
How the heck do you know that??
Im trying to spend it. . . In the trying.
The hub was moaning about paying some $$$ to edit his novel. How much, I ask. He specifies an amount with is entirely reasonable. So I say ok, but why do you think it's too expensive? It doesn't come close to to exhausting our resources in any way
But he was somewhat poor as a kid, and we were poorish when first married, so that has sunk in so far. . .
On the other hand we are spending on the home repair. How much is a lexus, so I can see use Lexus units?
Hyundai unit $20-$25,000. Small bathroom or new flooring.
Toyota unit $30-$40,000 Roof and landscaping.
Lexus unit $60-$70,000 full past the studs kitchen or moderate whole house update.
> That's 56 open seats (so no incumbency edge).
By my count about half are solidly red or solidly blue regardless. Call it 16 Republican and 14 Democrat districts that never change hands.
I agree that the rest have no incumbency edge and also have the mid term against the majority party bias as well as the demographic flow towards the Democrats.
> "Im trying to spend it. . . In the trying."
Is it possible to buy tickets to see a Space-X booster landing up close? Tell me your dear husband would never pay for it for hiself or that he would never forget the experience.
Or you could come out to California and see what all the fuss is about. Cinco had a good time and we only had a day.
I will edit it as long as it isn’t full of science stuff and big words with Latin roots. ;)
No up close booster landings. I can't tell so many launches He's seen on the order of 350 launches a lot from the rooftop of his building, me, about 100 over the years. Can't buy a landing ticket, because of location. We do go out and watch. Our neighbors don't seem to bother.
We are enjoying a simple life and not trying to spend our money, the kids get to do that but I think they will be wise with it and one is on her way to her own success. :)
I will convey your offer. It's written for a general public. He would like your comments. It's 154 pages long. How does he get it to you? He has a pdf file he can send.
I wrote my own sci-fi novel in the early '90s, (but it's set in the Star Trek universe, and so became un-publishable, since they stopped accepting new ST writers.
I'd be happy to review/critique.
When I was writing mine, I was part of a sci-fi / fantasy writer's group, "The Revisionaries", which absolutely helped improve my writing in general and the final product significantly.
Good Morning!
Will he go the traditional publishing route or E-Book?
Dawg,
Just in case you're interested, my basic methodology is as follows:
1) Remove the open seats. (56)
2) Determine diff between (D) incumbent vs. (R) incumbent seats (+29 R) after removing the retirements on both sides.
3) Adjust for gerrymandering (based on recent elections 51% of vote wins 55% of seats for (R), which is about 16 seats, which is about 4 seats per % of the vote - so, in theory, a 50/50 vote with no incumbents would be R+16 from center point, (217.5 + 16 = 233.5).
4) Incumbency edge is about 10%.
So - my calculation is basically:
Open seats (56) + equal incumbent seats (175*2) = 406 seats where incumbency washes or is not a factor.
Subtract 4% from whatever the generic ballot difference:
Generic ballot = (D) +7.8, becomes (D) +3.8.
I assume each point is worth 4 extra seats.
So +3.8 = +15 seats to Dems (for incumbent-neutral seats).
203+15 = 218 (D) - 188 (R)
Of the 29 incumbent seats, 7.8 generic ballot - 10% incumbent edge = -2.2 or 2.2 positive edge for (R) in these 29 seats. My best estimate is that each 0.8 difference for incumbency edge moves 1 seat from center. So 2.2 is a 3 seat swing from center of the 29 incumbent seats out there. 11(D) - 18(R) - (I tend to round in favor of who has the edge at any step).
218 + 11 = 229 (D) - 206 (R).
Note: Mostly, I rely on 538 for my raw numbers. I prefer their methodology and explanations to RCP, etc. I have also tweaked my approach as I learn more about the historical, (initially I was under-stating incumbency edge as only 5%). But, for the most part, if the Generic ballot stays about 6, the Dems end up on top. If the generic ballot drops below 6, it's a true tossup to about 5, and below 5, it's pretty much an (R) lock.
This method, while not perfect, avoids having to keep track of 435 different "how red-blue" ratings for each district, or dealing with re-districting issues.
We will just have to wait and see. I voted early.
Vote early vote often.
Whatever he can get.
Good morning.
Good Morning!
Vote early but not before the poo flinging. Don't want to miss the entertainment!
Has the poo flinging ever stoppped?
STOPPED? KNOW WHO, Poo Flinger In Chief.
It changed Who to stopped. ????
Poo fling gets really flying just before the election. ��
Firemane, many thanks for the formula. I too use a 4% discount to generic ballots. THat's why you've heard me point out the cases where incumbents cannot even poll registration.
Good morning, new post with a must read article.
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