Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Saturday, August 18, 2018
MASSIVE Price Reduction?
Remember this cute little cottage featured a few weeks ago? The cabin with ZERO bedrooms listed as TWO bedrooms?
Everyone understands? We are in the "must feed the squirrels" phase and there's a massive market shift coming. Prices will stutter. No matter what else you aren't going to see imperfect homes selling or perfect homes selling for a premium. Recent real estate agents are going to be gobsmacked at the first change in their long 8 year career.
I have seen sellers refuse to drop their price, and then they do a little, and then they follow the market down, bit by bit. Meanwhile, they could have sold halfway down. A 31k drop would be a signal of a willingness to negotiate.
Here, that shack might be priced at 75 or 70K. Or, maybe the authorities would be hounding you to tear it down. Got to have various building violations.
Catholic church wise, I have a different view now of a priest-event that happened when I was in Catholic grade school. There were 4 priests. One was a tall handsome salt and peppered hair one who liked (!!??!?) Children. He used to come around to the classrooms and tell us funny stories and folktales, which we loved. Later, when I was in 7th or 7th grade, we were told he was sick and had to leave and we were all told to write get well notes. I was suspicious at the time, because he didn't seem sick.
We never heard anything again. Later, I presumed he left to get married, since a lot of them were doing that at the time. Now, given his affinity to kids, I think there was an abuse problem. I don't think he was moved anywhere close because I think I would have heard. If he was really sick I think we would have heard from the nuns of the progress of his health. If he had married, I wouldn't have cared It was very sudden.
Now that I don't believe. And perhaps never did, I still retain this tiny expectation that the religious were at least a tiny bit better than the rest of us common herd. They talked a good game. Then I thought they were no worse. Now I think they are considerably worse. I hope any Catholics out there are not giving them any money!!!
I think it would be hard to work around kids with all the attention given to this subject. To many people looking for trouble that may not be there but any accusation would ruin ones reputation. Destroying trust is not good either.
Funny LBD. All my time in New England there was nothing about altitude that bothered me. S'course those were mere hills. Then out West again barely anything. Going hiking in Wrightwood at a mile high was noticable but just a bit harder. Earlier this year in Breckenridge and Denver we finally saw the difference. Breckenridge (9k) was hard. Denver was "okay like Wrightwood."
Trip earlier this year to Colorado Springs impressed me as to breathing. Heart just had a tune up but I wonder if the scare tissue from the cancer is the problem. Been carrying nitro around for 19 years but yet to use it. Still here so all is good!
Sort of, Need the Gaul Bladder out but have to wait till around February due to heavy blood thinners. Always something and thanks for Medicare, it was getting very expensive. To much fun left to quit, I don't do easy things well. LOL!
Response to Dawg's comment regarding 55+ participation.
I have a theory, but no easy way to prove it.
The 55+ rate plunged steadily from 1950 to the mid-80s. This is consistent with the concept of retirement - and male life expectancy (which was around 65 in 1950), growing steadily. So the fall is easy to explain, since there is no upper boundary, the more 70 and 80 years olds around, (not working), the P-rate will continue to fall.
From mid-80s to mid 90s it leveled off. My hunch here is that the level off is a combination of slowing in the rate of increase in life expectancy. But, I suspect some of it is probably related to female participation changes over time. The housewives from the '50s never got jobs, so, not participating when they hit 55 wouldn't have an impact. But, as female participation began rising in the 60s, an increasing number of females would be then "choosing" a retirement point.
My guess is that much (but not all) of the rise in participation between 1995-2010 was probably latency related to the steady increase of female participation back in the 60s and 70s.
But, we have definitely had increases in participation in the 65+ crowd since around 2000. The part I wonder (and have seen zero data on), is how much is "can" work beyond 65, (office jobs, not requiring physical exertion), vs. "must" work beyond 65, (the delivery guy who becomes a Walmart greeter because he can't lift packages due to a bad back, but who doesn't have any savings to supplement his SS.
IMO, a lot of 65+ people work using their minds and body. I know a rancher 86 still running cattle but on a smaller scale and another 84 doing Hydro electric design and diagnosis. They had a 91 year old farmer on the news last night with no intention of quitting. Read the average age of a farmer is 65 a few years ago. I have RRE so am I working or not? People see retirement differently then quit all together and play golf till the end. Times have changed.
You've got some portions of America blessed with good lifelong healthcare, good balanced diet, exercise and work regimens living longer and healthier than ever.
On the other end, you have an explosion of obese diabetics who are falling apart by 50, and if they get laid off at any point become effectively unemployable.
So, yes 70 is the new 50 ... except when 50 is the old 70.
I am sure there is some data on alcohol consumption. If there is a decrease then there has to be an increase in drug use to off set it.
My health blew up at 48 a year older then 2 uncles who died at 47 before medicine had advanced. Never thought I would make it this far and now feel good enough to see 80 maybe?
My 2 uncles died from heart attacks and I had my first one a year older. I truly believe in hereditary health problems. Life style does have an effect on it, so you can have some control to increase your odds. Workaholics seldom have time to practice it. =:0
No doubt that medical advances have been made in the past 50 years that have helped many to live longer.
The cynic in me, however, views judging all of medicine by its advances sort of like judging all automobiles based solely on either the Tesla. There's good medicine and bad medicine being practiced.
It's particularly disturbing that at the very moment when there are a plethora of easily seen medical advances extending life, American life expectancy actually recently dropped 2 years in a row - and the US has been steadily losing ground to the UK and Canada since about 1985.
The ability to take a picture of anything is a quality of life improvement. Snap a pic of the sale sign to show at check out. Under the sink a picture of the plumbing saves trips to the Home Despot.
I needed the core pulled from my shower handle (they have a tumbler made of soft breakable plastic that needs a special extractor now). I snapped picture of it and texted it to the plumber, he had the part when he showed up and was done in 30 min.
I had problems with an HVAC install. Took pictures of where they screwed up and sent it to the owner. He was back out the next day to fix it himself with everything he needed. the camera phone is a huge time saver for repair persons.
51 comments:
5 grand hunh? Maybe they hung some string beads to make some pretend rooms.
Also comes with a $100 gift card from Block Buster! Must be used at the store only!
Everyone understands? We are in the "must feed the squirrels" phase and there's a massive market shift coming. Prices will stutter. No matter what else you aren't going to see imperfect homes selling or perfect homes selling for a premium. Recent real estate agents are going to be gobsmacked at the first change in their long 8 year career.
Reality is long over due and many didn't learn a thing from the past.
Nah, but it takes bbn roughly 10 years to forget
Have been paying attention to local polticos, and still don't remember them when looking at my sample ballot. Easy to vote agaist Rick Scott.
I have seen sellers refuse to drop their price, and then they do a little, and then they follow the market down, bit by bit. Meanwhile, they could have sold halfway down. A 31k drop would be a signal of a willingness to negotiate.
Oh and there's a fb cartoon with He who Shall not Be Named and his wife, as Jabba the Hut and the Princess Leia.
Hysterical
Good morning, all. My leg is really hurting today. My blood sugar is good though. (One has nothing to do with the other.)
Here, that shack might be priced at 75 or 70K. Or, maybe the authorities would be hounding you to tear it down. Got to have various building violations.
At 6400 feet high I suspect they’d want you to at least put up navigation lights being that close to Cape Canaveral.
On a very tall skinny mountain? I am merely on an 8 inch alp.
Catholic church wise, I have a different view now of a priest-event that happened when I was in Catholic grade school. There were 4 priests.
One was a tall handsome salt and peppered hair one who liked (!!??!?) Children. He used to come around to the classrooms and tell us funny stories and folktales, which we loved. Later, when I was in 7th or 7th grade, we were told he was sick and had to leave and we were all told to write get well notes. I was suspicious at the time, because he didn't seem sick.
We never heard anything again. Later, I presumed he left to get married, since a lot of them were doing that at the time. Now, given his affinity to kids, I think there was an abuse problem. I don't think he was moved anywhere close because I think I would have heard. If he was really sick I think we would have heard from the nuns of the progress of his health. If he had married, I wouldn't have cared
It was very sudden.
Now that I don't believe. And perhaps never did, I still retain this tiny expectation that the religious were at least a tiny bit better than the rest of us common herd. They talked a good game. Then I thought they were no worse. Now I think they are considerably worse. I hope any Catholics out there are not giving them any money!!!
Good Morning!
I think it would be hard to work around kids with all the attention given to this subject. To many people looking for trouble that may not be there but any accusation would ruin ones reputation. Destroying trust is not good either.
Nose bleed altitude. Better make sure you have your nitro pills along. :)
Funny LBD. All my time in New England there was nothing about altitude that bothered me. S'course those were mere hills. Then out West again barely anything. Going hiking in Wrightwood at a mile high was noticable but just a bit harder. Earlier this year in Breckenridge and Denver we finally saw the difference. Breckenridge (9k) was hard. Denver was "okay like Wrightwood."
Trip earlier this year to Colorado Springs impressed me as to breathing. Heart just had a tune up but I wonder if the scare tissue from the cancer is the problem. Been carrying nitro around for 19 years but yet to use it. Still here so all is good!
Oh, hm thpught you were talking about my nine inches .
May I ask where your cancer was?
5 rounds and it has been all over, tumors on my head, abdomen, lungs, between my ribs, neck, mouth and stomach area. I been quite the lab rat.
Wow. You are a fighter. Ok now I hope?
Sort of, Need the Gaul Bladder out but have to wait till around February due to heavy blood thinners. Always something and thanks for Medicare, it was getting very expensive. To much fun left to quit, I don't do easy things well. LOL!
A wonderful sentiment
Nitenite
Over expensive Shack.
Good Morning!
Front Range airport near DIA just got a license from the FAA to be the 11th Spaceport. More boom for the Denver area! Glad I 'm gone from there.
Response to Dawg's comment regarding 55+ participation.
I have a theory, but no easy way to prove it.
The 55+ rate plunged steadily from 1950 to the mid-80s. This is consistent with the concept of retirement - and male life expectancy (which was around 65 in 1950), growing steadily. So the fall is easy to explain, since there is no upper boundary, the more 70 and 80 years olds around, (not working), the P-rate will continue to fall.
From mid-80s to mid 90s it leveled off. My hunch here is that the level off is a combination of slowing in the rate of increase in life expectancy. But, I suspect some of it is probably related to female participation changes over time. The housewives from the '50s never got jobs, so, not participating when they hit 55 wouldn't have an impact. But, as female participation began rising in the 60s, an increasing number of females would be then "choosing" a retirement point.
My guess is that much (but not all) of the rise in participation between 1995-2010 was probably latency related to the steady increase of female participation back in the 60s and 70s.
But, we have definitely had increases in participation in the 65+ crowd since around 2000. The part I wonder (and have seen zero data on), is how much is "can" work beyond 65, (office jobs, not requiring physical exertion), vs. "must" work beyond 65, (the delivery guy who becomes a Walmart greeter because he can't lift packages due to a bad back, but who doesn't have any savings to supplement his SS.
IMO, a lot of 65+ people work using their minds and body. I know a rancher 86 still running cattle but on a smaller scale and another 84 doing Hydro electric design and diagnosis. They had a 91 year old farmer on the news last night with no intention of quitting. Read the average age of a farmer is 65 a few years ago. I have RRE so am I working or not? People see retirement differently then quit all together and play golf till the end. Times have changed.
That looks like a lot of flammable material surrounding it...
Yep. Nor sure if Id take it if they gave it away.
Hub could work to nearly 71and beyond too. He got some extra monet working that long. He wanted to write novels so quite. And hes been doing it too.
The novels that is.
I like the calories being printed on the menus. A regulation!!🤣😍
A good regulation
Given the demographics here I can safely say:
70 is the new 50.
I can tell you at 59 I'm a physiological decade younger than my dad was at 49.
Bifurcation in aging, too.
You've got some portions of America blessed with good lifelong healthcare, good balanced diet, exercise and work regimens living longer and healthier than ever.
On the other end, you have an explosion of obese diabetics who are falling apart by 50, and if they get laid off at any point become effectively unemployable.
So, yes 70 is the new 50 ... except when 50 is the old 70.
People stopped smoking. Do they drink less?
I am sure there is some data on alcohol consumption. If there is a decrease then there has to be an increase in drug use to off set it.
My health blew up at 48 a year older then 2 uncles who died at 47 before medicine had advanced. Never thought I would make it this far and now feel good enough to see 80 maybe?
I think advances in medicine are the real factor.
That, too, certainly. Did they all have the same thing?
Good morning or middle of the nite! As the case may be.
Good Morning!
It feels like fall with a high of 70F today. :(
My 2 uncles died from heart attacks and I had my first one a year older. I truly believe in hereditary health problems. Life style does have an effect on it, so you can have some control to increase your odds. Workaholics seldom have time to practice it. =:0
No doubt that medical advances have been made in the past 50 years that have helped many to live longer.
The cynic in me, however, views judging all of medicine by its advances sort of like judging all automobiles based solely on either the Tesla. There's good medicine and bad medicine being practiced.
It's particularly disturbing that at the very moment when there are a plethora of easily seen medical advances extending life, American life expectancy actually recently dropped 2 years in a row - and the US has been steadily losing ground to the UK and Canada since about 1985.
I cannot express how much I hate computers. Not once have I been able just to turn it on and just work even just printing out something from a file.
Let me guess ... you're fond of friendly yellow legal pads.
To cheer me up, the goddess left a turtle at my front steps. Hub pushed it into the grass. It was a teenage turtle, but not mutant so far as I know.
Hahaha. I could have hand copied what I wanted in the time. . . Oh, never mind.
On the other hand, I love my phone. All the information I could possibly want at my fingertips.
The ability to take a picture of anything is a quality of life improvement. Snap a pic of the sale sign to show at check out. Under the sink a picture of the plumbing saves trips to the Home Despot.
New post.
I try to go paperless even snapping a picture of the computer screen. Still need paper for some work and thinking out projects.
Plastic is really the problem.
I needed the core pulled from my shower handle (they have a tumbler made of soft breakable plastic that needs a special extractor now). I snapped picture of it and texted it to the plumber, he had the part when he showed up and was done in 30 min.
I had problems with an HVAC install. Took pictures of where they screwed up and sent it to the owner. He was back out the next day to fix it himself with everything he needed. the camera phone is a huge time saver for repair persons.
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