Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, August 30, 2018
Thursday Diversion
This is my middle kid doing her job. How cool is that? For the less nature in tune, those are big cat paw prints.
Heck, the Fed is raising interest rates. Soon we'll have almost 'normal' ones. They're also starting to unwind their holdings (albeit in dribs and drabs).
Except for the 6 Trillion in stock buybacks in the past year, we're getting perilously close to a 'normal' market for the first time since the '90s.
Honestly, it's been so long, I have no idea how Mr. Market will react to your run of the mill business cycle recession.
What I don't have any feel for is how long the Trump tax cuts will act as fuel for the corporate stock buybacks. A year or two? Forever? No clue.
The stock market is a target on the move and I think impossible to really predict. If it was some one would end up with all the money. Ford is in trouble partly for pushing to hard on the all electric car and dumping most of the car line as well.
Can anyone imagine the tweet storm and conspiracy theory explosion if a stock market correction were to happen in October, right before the election? (Given that in the history of the stock market, nothing bad has ever happened in October).
I am not a twit so not sure of the effect. Seems many take it to serious IMO. Musk plays like T and it bites him, different job and different rules to play big mouth. The war of politics is bringing new horizons with social communications. How long till media talking heads totally move to the new technology?
The great fake economy started when we went off the gold standard. The great fraud was the financial lending crises. So as long as people are duped it goes on.
People actually thought that if the bank said they were qualified, then they were. It doesn't have to be gold. The guv still has lots of land. Pledge that.
IMO, the Gold Standard is no more a reasonable standard than any other. Gold only became a standard because that is what rulers thousands of years ago made the standard. It's no less a fiat currency than cloth with ink.
liz, I'd point you to Hong Kong for the dangers of funding the gov thru land sales. Least affordable city in the world and the government has the incentive to keep it that way, regardless of the hardship on the people.
IMO, the flawed foundation of economic theory starts with the concept that money = things. It doesn't. Money has been and will always be a representation of human effort.
If you pick an apple off a tree, Mother Earth doesn't charge for it. Nor for grapes, or oil, or lead, or gold. So, when you pay for an apple, or tank of gas, or wedding band - you're paying for the human effort that went into delivering it to you. "Stuff" doesn't charge anything.
So, all money represents human effort either already done - or (in the case of credit) - human effort to be done in the future.
How much gold is sitting in a vault in KY has zero relationship to the value of a trucker driving a rig 1,000 miles, or a surgeon removing an appendix, or a teen dropping another basket of fries.
Gold is what works when all else fails. Dropping the gold standard also opened debt doesn't matter world, till it does. IMO
In reality our government is the biggest owner of real estate in the country. Government back home loans are not really owned by the tenant making payments, no matter what they tell you.
We were off the gold standard long before we were off the gold standard. Is going off the gold standard was just an admission that we'd give of the gold standard
Hmmmm. People have always wanted it and it isn't big. Except South American Indians, long ago. And that took me aback. But you are right. Yeah electrons.
There are science fiction stories that talk about credits, which were talking about this. Money is what motivates people to do stuff, without the use of force, or darwinistic family ties. Surely occupations highly needed should command more goods and services. I don't see how you can attain that, but I'm willing to listen. A minimum and maximum?
Well, they aren't really owned by the government either. They are taken back by the assignee, who ever that is. The gov may pay money to that entity, but I've never heard of them taking title to the land itself, except FHA and VA. Often, the owner is able to sell. Not in the Great Recession, of course
They don't need to sell the land, they just need to be able to take on loans against it. Then, they can inflate the underlying asset value when they want more loans. It's not functionally different than the existing system we have in place.
I was talking about land the Federal gov never got rid of of. I think there is quite a lot in the west. To back paper money. To convince people that there is some there there, so they will produce. Money exists because we believe in it.
Money is *NOT* a motivation. (though this is the myth that Capitalism sells). It is what one can transform money into that matters. Money is not an end.
Money is simply a convenient way to "store" human effort to avoid the friction that bartering for every service would require.
Trading my computer programming skill directly for a haircut doesn't work (if the barber doesn't need my skill). So, rather than find someone who has a skill the barber DOES want, and arranging a 3 or 5 or 8 way trade - we have money.
Having a "rare and valued" service (medicine) can demand more payment, ($10,000 to keep me alive!). But, having a service that you can share with large numbers of people (entertainers, sports stars), creates a multiplier, where the individual value may be small ($20 for a ticket), but the totals are enormous.
But, since economics' foundation has always been "the widget" it's nearly impossible to think in "non-stuff" terms.
People need food, shelter, clothing, transportation, communication, education, etc. So, they trade their skills to earn money to acquire those things.
But, the one's who own most of the stored wealth from history - who control the power levers - they want people to believe that money (capital) is the key to everything. Capital helps unleash the human effort - and you do need markets to help set relative values between programmer and doctor and barber. But, my view is the true "value" of a thing is based on how much human effort it would take to recreate it.
But the truly wealthy have a rigged game, where they get to skim from the effort of current humans without actually adding any value, or giving anything back. The Depression and WWII altered the playing field for a bit - 90% upper tier marginal tax rates on the filthy rich - and we had a massive economic boom, and a creation of a true middle class. Unions helped keep the greed of the uber-rich in check for a time, (not that the unions didn't present their own set of problems).
But, once Ronnie killed the unions in the '80s, and tore down the walls of competition in favor of acquisition, the small guy was truly screwed.
Liz: And when a bunch of people get together, Citizens United, they can buy a very large country. Senators from the dirt, cactus, trees and cow states come cheap.
Liz: The Miss Measure of Man is about when white European males were considered to be the apex of development because of their brain size. That went a glimmering when it was discovered that some folks in Asia had the largest brains.
The space biz is going highly great here. Space and space related stuff, even Space Shirts are booming. Employers are even paying for training for entry positions.
Man, the stuff coming out about the FISA court are seriously troubling.
The idea of a "secret court" itself is Anti-American in the extreme, and now to discover that it's essentially a rubber stamp for any old fishing expedition should frighten anyone that gives a damn... especially now that it's been used politically against an opposition candidate.
I bet the miss use of the FBI, IRS and being in bed with the Clintons weapon sales and Iran kick backs. Some guessing but I have a strong feeling about them.
T plays rough no doubt but Americans need to toughen up a bit. I have been called a Grease Monkey no body cared, a guy uses monkey things up and the real racist go crazy bending it out of context. I don’t let emotion get in the way of decision making. With all the Dems, Loons and Republicans after him he has a very tough job
The post-McCain polling just rolled in and Trump and the Republicans took a polling blood bath.
Trump's disapproval crashed to -14. (per 538)
40.1 - approve 54.1 - disapprove
And the generic ballot spiked big time:
49.9 - Dem (+11.3) 38.6 - Rep
That's after hovering in the 7-8 range since first of July.
Honestly, this is pretty much guaranteed to be transient. But, this is one of the larger opinion spikes, (similar to the bashing he took with the "Gold Star Family" debacle. But, this type of spike rarely lasts more than 3 weeks, unless there is continued followup idiocy.
In fairness, I'm guessing as to the "why" behind the dramatic spike in the approval and generic ballot numbers.
I watched things MUCH closer during the 2016 cycle, and figured out there is about a 7 day lag between news event and when the results show up firmly in the aggregation polling numbers. The latency is divided into two parts - the first is that polls (mostly) aren't started in response to news events - they're pre-scheduled. Most are performed over multiple days (3 days is the juicy center).
So, first, you have a story reported. Well, everyone doesn't watch the news every day. So, it takes 2-3 days for the news to hit people. Then it takes about 3 days for the pollsters to do the polling AFTER people have heard the news. Then there's an extra day or two for the aggregators to do their updates.
In the meantime, polls taken just before "event" are the ones showing up immediately after said event. Unless a story is "juicy" enough to run 3-4 days, it will rarely move the meter. And then you'll get hybrid results, where the first day or two of a poll were before the event, or the last day or two were after the event was reported. Basically, there's a LOT of latency and noise.
So, it's very hard to determine "why" polls moved in a major way unless there is specific event-based polling questions. For generic ballot and approval, doesn't apply.
But, there were MANY cases in 2016 (both ways) where an event would result in a fast 5 point swing ... which would gradually begin to fade over the next 3 weeks (if not interrupted by another event-driven swing).
So, I would expect the generic ballot to slowly move back to the 7-8 range it's been sitting in ... EXCEPT, Labor Day tends to be when pollsters switch from "registered voter" to "likely voter" models, so there could be another quick swing on deck, (that is about methodology and not politics). But, I checked the latest polls, and the ones in the current 538 and RCP aggregates are still largely RV not LV.
I don't see how pollsters can but anywhere near accurate when a lot of people don't have landlines, a lot of people don't pick up the phone, and a lot of.people hang up when they don't hear a voice they know.
There has been some mention of the FISA process so maybe some would be inerested in this article: https://www.lawfareblog.com/how-fisa-court-really-works
All of those items ARE concerns of pollsters. Polling well is HARD.
But, those items only matter *IF* there is a partisan lean for those factors.
If Dems / Reps and Indies are equally likely to hang up on pollsters, then it doesn't matter. If they are all equally likely to have no landline - not an issue. (Early on cell phone usage skewed younger, which did impact polling results, but there ARE ways to adjust for that - because you collect age and gender info, which you normalize to population norms, etc.).
That's the big factor that each individual pollster has to monitor - which is how best to take results they CAN get - and normalize so the sample matches that of the general public. This is also why poll average tends to be more accurate than relying on any single pollster.
85 comments:
about those supposed prints ...
I think you're lion. :)
That went under me.
Parts of the bathroom are usable.
Lion? What gives you that “impression?”
What a great STEM job. You remember the 4 foot salmon? Now a 150lb cat track. Getting paid.
Paid to play! That was the car biz till computers and a massive talent shortage turned it into a job.
We have a very over weight cat in the neighborhood and no mice. :)
Culver City has a coyote problem, cats missing!
Meow. Cats are good at that.
Watching Victory At Sea. The Kamikazi pilots were pretty damned effective.
Yes they where, I haven't watched that movie in years, I will put it on the winter entertainment list. TKU
You have to buy it.
Good Morning!
Victory at Sea in on YouTube. So It's free.
After the funds hitting new highs I think a correction is coming and hopefully the new lows are higher. :)
It's when people start saying it's going up forever, you have to watch it. That's not happening yet, so I think it has a while to go up.
Heck, the Fed is raising interest rates. Soon we'll have almost 'normal' ones. They're also starting to unwind their holdings (albeit in dribs and drabs).
Except for the 6 Trillion in stock buybacks in the past year, we're getting perilously close to a 'normal' market for the first time since the '90s.
Honestly, it's been so long, I have no idea how Mr. Market will react to your run of the mill business cycle recession.
What I don't have any feel for is how long the Trump tax cuts will act as fuel for the corporate stock buybacks. A year or two? Forever? No clue.
The stock market is a target on the move and I think impossible to really predict. If it was some one would end up with all the money. Ford is in trouble partly for pushing to hard on the all electric car and dumping most of the car line as well.
Can anyone imagine the tweet storm and conspiracy theory explosion if a stock market correction were to happen in October, right before the election? (Given that in the history of the stock market, nothing bad has ever happened in October).
I am not a twit so not sure of the effect. Seems many take it to serious IMO. Musk plays like T and it bites him, different job and different rules to play big mouth. The war of politics is bringing new horizons with social communications. How long till media talking heads totally move to the new technology?
There is no normal, alas.
It might actually BE a conspiracy! Hehehe.
People are worried, so it will go up.
Remember mp, who was so certain it was gonna go bust before he died, what 5 or 6 years ago now?
MP was cool and missed.
The great fake economy started when we went off the gold standard. The great fraud was the financial lending crises. So as long as people are duped it goes on.
People actually thought that if the bank said they were qualified, then they were. It doesn't have to be gold. The guv still has lots of land. Pledge that.
IMO, the Gold Standard is no more a reasonable standard than any other. Gold only became a standard because that is what rulers thousands of years ago made the standard. It's no less a fiat currency than cloth with ink.
liz, I'd point you to Hong Kong for the dangers of funding the gov thru land sales. Least affordable city in the world and the government has the incentive to keep it that way, regardless of the hardship on the people.
IMO, the flawed foundation of economic theory starts with the concept that money = things. It doesn't. Money has been and will always be a representation of human effort.
If you pick an apple off a tree, Mother Earth doesn't charge for it. Nor for grapes, or oil, or lead, or gold. So, when you pay for an apple, or tank of gas, or wedding band - you're paying for the human effort that went into delivering it to you. "Stuff" doesn't charge anything.
So, all money represents human effort either already done - or (in the case of credit) - human effort to be done in the future.
How much gold is sitting in a vault in KY has zero relationship to the value of a trucker driving a rig 1,000 miles, or a surgeon removing an appendix, or a teen dropping another basket of fries.
Gold is what works when all else fails. Dropping the gold standard also opened debt doesn't matter world, till it does. IMO
In reality our government is the biggest owner of real estate in the country. Government back home loans are not really owned by the tenant making payments, no matter what they tell you.
We were off the gold standard long before we were off the gold standard. Is going off the gold standard was just an admission that we'd give of the gold standard
Hmmmm. People have always wanted it and it isn't big. Except South American Indians, long ago. And that took me aback. But you are right. Yeah electrons.
There are science fiction stories that talk about credits, which were talking about this. Money is what motivates people to do stuff, without the use of force, or darwinistic family ties. Surely occupations highly needed should command more goods and services. I don't see how you can attain that, but I'm willing to listen. A minimum and maximum?
Well, they aren't really owned by the government either. They are taken back by the assignee, who ever that is. The gov may pay money to that entity, but I've never heard of them taking title to the land itself, except FHA and VA. Often, the owner is able to sell. Not in the Great Recession, of course
They don't need to sell the land, they just need to be able to take on loans against it. Then, they can inflate the underlying asset value when they want more loans. It's not functionally different than the existing system we have in place.
I was talking about land the Federal gov never got rid of of. I think there is quite a lot in the west. To back paper money. To convince people that there is some there there, so they will produce. Money exists because we believe in it.
Who is they? The guv?
Money is *NOT* a motivation. (though this is the myth that Capitalism sells). It is what one can transform money into that matters. Money is not an end.
Money is simply a convenient way to "store" human effort to avoid the friction that bartering for every service would require.
Trading my computer programming skill directly for a haircut doesn't work (if the barber doesn't need my skill). So, rather than find someone who has a skill the barber DOES want, and arranging a 3 or 5 or 8 way trade - we have money.
Having a "rare and valued" service (medicine) can demand more payment, ($10,000 to keep me alive!). But, having a service that you can share with large numbers of people (entertainers, sports stars), creates a multiplier, where the individual value may be small ($20 for a ticket), but the totals are enormous.
But, since economics' foundation has always been "the widget" it's nearly impossible to think in "non-stuff" terms.
People need food, shelter, clothing, transportation, communication, education, etc. So, they trade their skills to earn money to acquire those things.
But, the one's who own most of the stored wealth from history - who control the power levers - they want people to believe that money (capital) is the key to everything. Capital helps unleash the human effort - and you do need markets to help set relative values between programmer and doctor and barber. But, my view is the true "value" of a thing is based on how much human effort it would take to recreate it.
But the truly wealthy have a rigged game, where they get to skim from the effort of current humans without actually adding any value, or giving anything back. The Depression and WWII altered the playing field for a bit - 90% upper tier marginal tax rates on the filthy rich - and we had a massive economic boom, and a creation of a true middle class. Unions helped keep the greed of the uber-rich in check for a time, (not that the unions didn't present their own set of problems).
But, once Ronnie killed the unions in the '80s, and tore down the walls of competition in favor of acquisition, the small guy was truly screwed.
When you have too much of money, it loses its mearning, unless you want to buy a small, or medium sized country.
The debt will never be paid off, unless and until bbn our civilization falls, which mb at be a couple hundred years.
Primary voting was high, supposedly. The highest county was 30 %. But 1/3 of voters are non party, little to vote for.
Liz: And when a bunch of people get together, Citizens United, they can buy a very large country. Senators from the dirt, cactus, trees and cow states come cheap.
Working on a women suffrage speech. Brain getting overused. Perhaps because it's smaller than men's. As men though not too long ago.
Thought
Liz: The Miss Measure of Man is about when white European males were considered to be the apex of development because of their brain size. That went a glimmering when it was discovered that some folks in Asia had the largest brains.
Hahaha.
I think Chinese have the highest IQs.
Gluten Morgan.
Finished my UU Women Suffrage speech.
The space biz is going highly great here.
Space and space related stuff, even Space Shirts are booming. Employers are even paying for training for entry positions.
Good Morning!
Final loading of the Out House for a road trip! Launch time tomorrow.
Send us reports.
My women suffrage speech went off pretty well.
Actually, Ashkenazi Jews have the highest IQ.
East Asians (China, Japan, etc) are second.
The size of the brain seems to have little to do with who works it. ;)
Man, the stuff coming out about the FISA court are seriously troubling.
The idea of a "secret court" itself is Anti-American in the extreme, and now to discover that it's essentially a rubber stamp for any old fishing expedition should frighten anyone that gives a damn... especially now that it's been used politically against an opposition candidate.
Banana republic, anyone?
Can't decisions be appealed?
The Patriot Act should be repealed!
Oh, and good morning.
Good Morning!
Nixon got caught and the right thing happened. Will it this time? Clintons still need their day in an honest court. IMO.
Nixon was gracious enough to quit. Warren Harding was gracious enough to die.
I don't think T will ever leave, unless forced.
Another Repub congressman bites the dust. Insider trading.
T has no reason to leave at this point and time. Cover ups keep Clinton's and O out of the public eye.
I meant after 2020 or 2024. He's a born dictator. Fortunately, he will be relatively old at that time
What is O covering up?
I just want to know.
He looks like a happy man. T doesn't.
How can you bear his loathsomeness?
The rain comes and goes
I bet the miss use of the FBI, IRS and being in bed with the Clintons weapon sales and Iran kick backs. Some guessing but I have a strong feeling about them.
T smiles better the O's arrogant look. IMO.
>Another Repub congressman bites the dust. Insider trading.
Is insider trading illegal for congress critters ?
Have to check with Nancy Pelosi on that.
Yeah, remember the shock on her face
He doesn't smile, he smirks. You are a sensible man, how come you can't detect his making fun of a disabled man just to cite one thing.
Hey is this thing working?
Having trouble signing in. On the road!
T plays rough no doubt but Americans need to toughen up a bit. I have been called a Grease Monkey no body cared, a guy uses monkey things up and the real racist go crazy bending it out of context. I don’t let emotion get in the way of decision making. With all the Dems, Loons and Republicans after him he has a very tough job
O? If the FBI, DOJ and the CIA comes out badly then he had to know.
Nity Nite.
Good Morning, all. We only got some rain from Gordon.
He makes it tougher for himself, for no particular reason
The post-McCain polling just rolled in and Trump and the Republicans took a polling blood bath.
Trump's disapproval crashed to -14. (per 538)
40.1 - approve
54.1 - disapprove
And the generic ballot spiked big time:
49.9 - Dem (+11.3)
38.6 - Rep
That's after hovering in the 7-8 range since first of July.
Honestly, this is pretty much guaranteed to be transient. But, this is one of the larger opinion spikes, (similar to the bashing he took with the "Gold Star Family" debacle. But, this type of spike rarely lasts more than 3 weeks, unless there is continued followup idiocy.
Good morning! ��
Anyone who lets Mc Cain’s death sway their opinion is weak and emotional. IMO.
Off to southern CO.
Didn't say mine. My assessment of my as crazy and petty is exactly the same.
Sway
Really, all he had to do was keep quiet and keep the flag lowered
Impossible for him I guess.
In fairness, I'm guessing as to the "why" behind the dramatic spike in the approval and generic ballot numbers.
I watched things MUCH closer during the 2016 cycle, and figured out there is about a 7 day lag between news event and when the results show up firmly in the aggregation polling numbers. The latency is divided into two parts - the first is that polls (mostly) aren't started in response to news events - they're pre-scheduled. Most are performed over multiple days (3 days is the juicy center).
So, first, you have a story reported. Well, everyone doesn't watch the news every day. So, it takes 2-3 days for the news to hit people. Then it takes about 3 days for the pollsters to do the polling AFTER people have heard the news. Then there's an extra day or two for the aggregators to do their updates.
In the meantime, polls taken just before "event" are the ones showing up immediately after said event. Unless a story is "juicy" enough to run 3-4 days, it will rarely move the meter. And then you'll get hybrid results, where the first day or two of a poll were before the event, or the last day or two were after the event was reported. Basically, there's a LOT of latency and noise.
So, it's very hard to determine "why" polls moved in a major way unless there is specific event-based polling questions. For generic ballot and approval, doesn't apply.
But, there were MANY cases in 2016 (both ways) where an event would result in a fast 5 point swing ... which would gradually begin to fade over the next 3 weeks (if not interrupted by another event-driven swing).
So, I would expect the generic ballot to slowly move back to the 7-8 range it's been sitting in ... EXCEPT, Labor Day tends to be when pollsters switch from "registered voter" to "likely voter" models, so there could be another quick swing on deck, (that is about methodology and not politics). But, I checked the latest polls, and the ones in the current 538 and RCP aggregates are still largely RV not LV.
I don't see how pollsters can but anywhere near accurate when a lot of people don't have landlines, a lot of people don't pick up the phone, and a lot of.people hang up when they don't hear a voice they know.
There has been some mention of the FISA process so maybe some would be inerested in this article:
https://www.lawfareblog.com/how-fisa-court-really-works
Getting my new glasses with clear glass shortly. Yay.
Liz,
All of those items ARE concerns of pollsters. Polling well is HARD.
But, those items only matter *IF* there is a partisan lean for those factors.
If Dems / Reps and Indies are equally likely to hang up on pollsters, then it doesn't matter. If they are all equally likely to have no landline - not an issue. (Early on cell phone usage skewed younger, which did impact polling results, but there ARE ways to adjust for that - because you collect age and gender info, which you normalize to population norms, etc.).
That's the big factor that each individual pollster has to monitor - which is how best to take results they CAN get - and normalize so the sample matches that of the general public. This is also why poll average tends to be more accurate than relying on any single pollster.
How well do they actually predict?
Reading God's Bankers
The Catholic Church is infinitely worse than I had thought. And I am only on page 20.
Haven't got to the NAZIs yet.
New posts and a promise for more posts.
Hurricane Florence may hit the East coast. Spaghetti maps are all over the map, including out to sea.
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