Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
On my way to picking up the 1998 Expedition replacement. Liz will never let me live this one down. 2007 Mercedes Benz R500. It's just a big minivan. OMG. I swore I'd never own a minivan!
To respond to your question about how accurate are the pollsters ...
The "aggregators" are pretty accurate. Typical results are off by only 2-3 points (nationally).
That said - the important variables to understand are that the smaller the pool being polled, the higher the uncertainty goes. This is not just the number of people polled - but the total size of the target.
National polls tend to be more accurate than state polls. The fewer different pollsters involved, the more uncertainty.
In 2016, the final pre-election polls at 538 had Hillary up nationally by about 3 points - but BEFORE the election noted that Trump was much more likely (than Hillary) to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. Overall they gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning.
In most states, the polls were very accurate, (within 2-3 points).
In the rust belt, (Mich, Wisc., Penn.), they missed by wider margins (6-7 points).
The thing is, Trump won three states by less than a point. If he loses those three states, Hillary is President, and nobody even blinks - and the pollsters are lauded as perfect, (if they have been off by 5 points instead of 7).
The pollsters really blew it by not using common sense. Pennsylvania polling was not making sense. They should have looked at that rather than accept HER 8 point lead.
And I'm mostly back. The newly designated in a fire zone rental has insurance coverage. The ancient minivan has coverage and title. The vacation plans are almost set. The concert tickets are confirmed and Ticketmaster is everything evil in a monopoly. Okay, ask questions about those things and I'll answer probably. And no, the minivan is gold not black but the rear hatch does have power up and down.
Ooo-oooo. Just so you know. By my low standards I am rich. Everything's paid for. Our monthly income more than suffices for our expenses. I'd like to travel more, but my leg is still bothering me too much, doesn't have to do with money. My mansion is too big for us now.
Not sure why you were saying the PA polls didn't make sense.
Understand that all modern polling relies on "history" to build models based on "normal" voting patterns. They are (on the whole), VERY good at this (in the US).
Where polling is very limited is picking up *NEW* patterns. The irony meter is pegged because polling is actually very backward looking, even though it is used (badly) by the media as a forward-looking tool.
NO POLLING METHOD can possibly accurately pick up a major change in human behavior BEFORE it happens. In 2016 there were two factors that bit particularly hard in the 3 key states PA, MI, WI ... a bunch of non-college whites who normally did not vote DID. And there was a massive drop in black voter turnout in those 3 states.
Was it reasonable to expect a drop in black turnout since Obama was gone? Absolutely. But how big?
Overall turnout jumped 2.4%, while NATIONALLY black turnout dropped 4.7%.
But, that wasn't evenly spread.
% of black population: MI - 14.1% PA - 9.87% WI - 5.6%
WI - -12.3 black voter turnout (-1.6 white voter turnout) PA - -2.1 black voter turnout (+5.2 white voter turnout) MI - -12.4 black voter turnout (-2.6 white voter turnout) -
Though Wisconsin doesn't have as large a black population, they had a massive drop in turnout. PA, on the other hand, had a major surge in white turnout -- but the makeup of that white turnout was also very different from previous elections.
So, even assuming one had "perfect" national knowledge of the swings in turnout (black/white), even if you had applied them pre-election to the above 3 states - the final results would still have been way off.
And remember, it's not just one pollster - it's the net of LOTS (at least in some states), of pollsters.
I have my own theory about the mid-terms. I think "Trump" voters (those white non-college that surged in 2016) will stay home, "like normal", because Trump himself is not on the ballot. My sense is that THE MAN got them to the polls - completely apart from policy. So, candidates being "Trumpy" just won't get anywhere near the 2016 surge (even setting aside the historical norms of non-Pres party doing better in mid-terms).
But, as a pollster, what "methodology" do you use for setting up your "likely voter" model? Do you use 2014 as your baseline? Do you tweak it to account for "Trump" voters (who definitely didn't vote previously in mid-terms)?
Part of what makes the pollsters as good as they are is they have (through history) figured out processes to filter out most of the noise.
I don't get what "common sense" information would've made the PA polls obviously wrong.
If the cabal was successful in keeping T controlled and it seems to have been, why did this highly placed person spill the beans? So he trusts nobody, even a little bit? So his head will explode? He asked his wife too! No trust there.
OT, I highly recommend the series of articles at "Naked Capitalism" Blog on CalPers. Absolutely over the top incompetence, corruption and overt illegality. Overt illegality? How about making it written policy that board members sign off on blank, undated expense vouchers... It's a hoot. And it's amazing that NO ONE, including John Cox, has picked this up as a campaign issue.
Just a quick flyby to say hi. Tom, take care of yourself. Liz, hugs. Keep on keeping on. Firemane, your posts are always interesting! Hi LBD, good to see you.
Am continuing to read God's Bankers. The catholic Church was unspeakably awful during the run up to WW II You all prolly know this, hm but Pius the Something required.the Catholic Bishops in Germany to swear allegiance to the Nazis. For the money. They never liked the Jews.
Here in Raleigh, the biggest issue is going to be rain. Based on the latest, it will hit the coast as a Cat 3 (after peaking as a Cat 4).
Wilmington to Kitty Hawk are going to get the worst of the wind damage, (Greenville, too).
The biggest fear for me is that some of the models have it just parking itself in Greensboro and then raining itself out while stationary. The flooding in the central part of the state in that situation is going to be horrendous.
The fast movers tend to be strong and knock stuff down, the lollygaggers weaken quickly, but flood everything. The fallout from that (pun intended) will be when the ground gets wet enough trees topple from the roots.
There's a lone track model that has it heading north and smacking DC and then NYC. (That would, of course, be the "God hates Trump" model).
As an aside, Hurricane impact modeling is still in the brute force stages. The best way we've come up with to test sea walls, jetties, etc., is to combine bathymetry of the Atlantic with coastal LiDAR and start the hurricane off the coast of Africa and ram 200 simulations into the coast line to see the storm surge and combined flooding. All this must be run on the supercomuters in the basements of universities.
firemane, Keep us up to date on your location in the center of the storm track. Liz, remind us of your previous hurricane experience. Here in Kalipornikateya we are nervious about the next couple of days due to likelihood of increased winds. It doesn't take much to get our fires going. Found dryfly!!! He is twittering.
Hub worked for NOAA. Went on a hurricane flight. Many years ago. Learned some by osmosis. Had a house totalled by Andrew. People who don't flee, they deserve what they get. This storm will hover over the Appalations for a while probably. Very bad.
As feared initially, this looks like a slow mover. The most recent track has it reaching Wilmington then turning almost due west, (instead of continuing up on a diagonal toward Raleigh).
As of this moment, looks like 1/2 day of work on Thursday, then turtle until Monday.
Looks like it's going to move to the middle of SC and then just rain itself out in one spot.
Storm surge is going to brutal for NC (incoming winds), so our coast is going to get pounded. But, my best guess is that SC is ultimately going to be the real disaster area. It's nastiest when the trees topple - not due to wind - but due to ground so soft the roots don't hold.
Based on most recent wind projection maps, looks like Raleigh will get 50mph winds ... (not awful) ... but we may be in those winds off an on for as much as 48 hours. I'm REALLY hoping the wind values drop off faster than current projections.
Here 50 mph is considered a breeze, except trailor parks,and maybe even for them. I would stay, oh, up to a strong cat 1 or weak 2. Our roof is new and our house pretty hardened.up. With Dade county glass and shutters and garage door. We are on a barrier island, but there is another barrier island on the ocean side of us for a storm surge to go over and our 8 inch alp.
Me? I'm in Raleigh. Though I'm tentatively scheduled to play at the closing of a World Day of Prayer ceremony in Greensboro (about 70 miles west of me) Thursday at 8-9pm.
Based on latest, I'm not really wanting to be on the road between 9-11 tomorrow heading back TOWARD the storm.
Cooler today south breeze and nice enough to ride my bike for the first time this year. Still eating to much and enjoying! Gambeling not so but that is the usual for me. I keep winning at the health game so that’s the best win of all!
Did my shopping yesterday. Got gas today at lunch. (Many stations are OUT).
Plenty of non-perishable supplies. Since I'm in the Capital, we're high priority for power and water restoration (should either go out). Honestly, I've never seen a water disruption due to storm - and I've lived here since '86.
Power can get dicey, but the long-term stuff is more likely with ice storms than hurricanes.
Getting a half day in at work. Based on current projections, I'm still planning on doing the Greensboro gig. Florence definitely appears to be a lollygagger.
Flo is still going to be 50 miles off the coast at 6am TOMORROW, and Wilmington is 120 miles away from me. I'll have to deal with the very outermost rain band - but even Tropical Storm winds won't reach Raleigh until well into Friday.
I'm all set - patio furniture stored. Rations stocked. Water ready. I have 3 toilets and live alone, so that's at least 3 flushes before I even have to worry about running water. Filled my Prius yesterday, which has a 650 mile range per tank, so even after I get back from Greensboro, I'm set for 2-3 weeks. :)
In the end, barring a sudden change in heading, mostly it just means a 3 day weekend for me ... and my Sunday soccer game will likely be cancelled.
As expected, for Raleigh, it's just been wet. Plenty of land southeast of here is full out Noah territory. Me? I got a day off work on Friday - and my Sunday soccer match was cancelled. Didn't even get a power bump at The Sand Castle, (that's what I call my townhouse).
Oddly enough, this morning was probably peak 'scare' for me. Latest band of thunderstorms spawned some tornadoes just north of Durham. That was enough to make me delay heading in to work by 15.
I'm not prone to cabin fever, but the permanent overcast (since last Thursday) is starting to get to me.
Glad to hear you are ok. It's just ordinary hot here. Bathroom coming along nicely, then on to the next bathroom. We did have a minor crisis. Outlet pipe on A/c got stopped up. They came out right away and all is well. Zillow keeps raising our house price little by little, even though I don't think they are aware of improvements. Same with my son's in Illinois House next door says impending contract, but no sale so far. I hope we get nice neighbors.
Let's assume for argument's sake that Kav really did it and assume he didn't ever do it again. Would he deserve to drag this around for the rest of his life? I don't know. Then there is the foreclosure thing. I think I'd want to know more. Are the original paper pleadings still around or transferred to electronics? Anybody can look at them then. Most such docs don't tell you much but I'd want to talk a peak. It strikes me as unusual or odd, hm but I'm used to big big counties.
I am not sure we should obsess about it, unless it happened more than once. And there's the foreclore thing. Does hmm the other kid who was there remember anything?
T mumbled something about this needed to be got thru and something I interpreted to mean more investigation. I near said anything about my father hugging me inappropriately and before she died I asked her why she didn't do anything and she said I don't know. Oh, it happened all right.
My default position is to believe female victims because society has allowed men to get away with this type of thing for thousands of years. And while there is "some" movement in the right direction - one only needs to look at the Larry Nassar situation to understand why women don't come forward. Because they are ***TAUGHT*** that bringing up any of this stuff will:
1) Be ignored. 2) Paint them as evil doers.
The simple, unerring truth of sexual misconduct for the past 2,000 years is white males get away with any and everything. Girls are blamed for everything. It's estimated that less than a third of all sexual assaults are reported to police and date rate or acquaintance rape is the most unreported, (estimates as high as 90%).
While I personally think High School actions in general should be irrelevant for selection to the SC -- I find it galling when I hear arguments from those on the right who castigated Hillary Clinton for "going after" the victims of Bill Clinton's sexual misconduct and then without hesitation do the exact same thing when a claim is made against someone on the right -- "It's just made up political BS - etc."
But, we elected a man, who not only admitted, but BRAGGED about grabbing women by the pussy. So, even if video tape of the alleged assault were aired tomorrow, why should we expect it have any bearing on this guy's fitness for office?
At this point he is pushing for what Americans have wanted for a long time. Of course he will benefit and bring home a win, not a total sell out like many previous Preasidents. Some times you need to dance with the devil to get what you need.
When a woman accuses a man of attempted rape - she is immediately accused of lying - of being a political pawn, etc. - despite the fact that she personally has absolutely nothing to gain from it - and can expect the predictable victim blaming and smear campaign that inevitably follows.
When a man PROFESSES to committing sexual assault on multiple women - he is assumed to be just making it up - it's just "locker room talk" to make himself "look better."
=====
As for Trump - after the Access Hollywood Tape 19 different women came forward to **CONFIRM** that Trump was telling the truth.
There's at least one pending lawsuit (Summer Servos) still in the courts.
We know with certainty at this point that Trump has on multiple occasions paid women for their silence in response to sexual dalliances, (consensual or otherwise).
As I noted above - the reality is that women KNOW that making these allegations is typically a losing proposition - so they do their best to put it behind them and move on. This is especially true, if the person you are going to accuse happens to be a billionaire.
So ... we have a man who ADMITS to grabbing women ... and we have 19 different women who step up and CONFIRM that he was telling the truth ... and the response ***STILL*** is that the women and Trump are *ALL* lying. Why? Because Trump was 100% correct. Because he is rich, he can get away with pretty much anything he wants with women, and there is not a single solitary thing they can do about it that does not make the situation worse for THEM.
Mind you - none of them accused him of actual rape (that I am aware of). So, the actions are the kind that simply don't ever get prosecuted criminally. And any civil suit would immediately be painted with the women as a money-grubbing opportunist.
Weinstein, Cosby, Nassar ... these guys got away with much worse behavior than Trump for DECADES ... and the only reason they eventually are facing consequences is that some brave woman came forward and then a host of other women jumped in to CONFIRM the behavior.
Heck, Bill Clinton got away with the same type of behavior as Gov. of Arkansas.
I don’t think I made your point at all. She brings up an event that needs reviewed IF she had done the right thing and reported it to authorities in a reasonable window of time with documention, No police report no crime, he said she said bickering. Funny thing about renters and broken doors at move out. They claim someone tried to break in but didn’t bother to call the police. Big chance it was the Ex or the jelouse lover. Not attacking her but the time line and the games memories play and politics. Way to many points, like timing draging on this till after the election, party power and about the only effective tool the Dems have left. If anything you have decided with her. Lies everywhere and they all seem to disappear after the election.
Clinton? I am all for not investigating only when they are actions before they where in office. Clinton needed called on the carpet for actions while in offices, the rest has become a political tool of politics disrupting the whole system.
Wienstein, Cosby and Nassau all took advantage of of their position and women putting themselves in compromising posistions and I bet some willing. Ugly but honest.
Stormy described his equipment In intimate detail. Said equipment was unique, and not in a pleasing way. But At this point, I just don't want him to blow up the world. Behaving sexually is an extremely distant 2nd or 3rd. Also, Kav is too conservative for me. Repealing the tax cuts fo billionaires is important to me. Building infrastructure of roads and bridges and dams is important, and why not use competent military contractors, and cut off paying for equipment that even the military doesn't use.
Also I had some similar things happen to me, one is described upthread. There was absolutely no one to tell. I believe these women. Now this may become fashionable and some twisted teen may report this in revenge for some slight or a bad grade, but as to old stuff, no. It was horrible and painful. My education was my grandmother saying never take candy from a stranger. She never said why. At the time I thought kidnapping.
And everybody, talking ml heads and alo, are talking about recession and when it will come. Therefore, my call for same Is going out another year. Nobody is calling any kind of get rich-quick scheme. Therefore, 2 years from now, instead of one year.
My get rich Casino scam still works I put money and she takes it out and will go home with a good take. LOL!
White table cloth dining was fantastic, had an amazing steak Diane. So tender you could cut it with a butter knife. Then saw the best concert of the stay CSN express. Crosby Stills and Nash tribute band with Neil Young, Joni Mitchell and Judy Collins as well. Reminds me of how good instrumental complemented singing. Great time ��
Today you have to lie to sell books, everybody sells books real dirt or not stretched to points of insanity. By the way where is Omorosa, the porn star and her dirt bag lawyer?
Haven't got that fat. Harry Potter?. Come on. Mr bathroom is nearly nearly done. Things like door knobs on cabinets. Then on to the next bathroom, and they are putting on new cedar shingles and have started to paint.
My owner rights to efit/post seem straightened out. New posts resume AM pacific time when I get kicked to the gardencsged of spousal exile. Lots of great things to discuss. And welcome back Counterpointer. Amazing who washes up on these far flung shores.
Beck at the Hollywood Bowl Friday.
Danny Elfnan directs orchestra to Nightmare before Christmas but between that the grand foliage tour in two weeks.
Some eye popping real estate deals lately.
UST yield curve to go wonky soon.
Bluetooth bone conduction and industrial total earplugs are the only way to fly.
A kavanaugh thought. These parents were sending the kids off to a school where there there was heavy drinking a lot of the time. Apparently nobody cared, the teachers, the parents, who ever was in charge of the dorms, the homeowner, anybody.
Parents exist to prevent kids from doing stuff like that, and whatever bad consequences follow. Abdicated responsibility. Sigh, perhaps the parents would have taken a boys will be boys attitude anyway.
141 comments:
A course of what? Ah, a golf course!!
So, what's up?
Three insurance issues (changes not claims.
Buying a new beater car to replace the Expedition.
Hollywood Bowl.
Honeydew list that grows.
We have some changes too that are very dubious the hub says. Agent does not call us back.
They called! And said the notice is wrong.
On my way to picking up the 1998 Expedition replacement. Liz will never let me live this one down. 2007 Mercedes Benz R500. It's just a big minivan. OMG. I swore I'd never own a minivan!
Rich, rich, rich. Hehehe
Read the NYT essay thing? Maybe T's will explode!
Fire them all.
Apparently the NYT thinks sedition is worth concealing.
Rich?!? It's a high mileage, low fuel efficiency tank of a decade old minivan.
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gkDik68qeNY/W5CVvzjiPvI/AAAAAAAALHM/ERFIc4HKk-czJTJN3DfY5fpqWaI-14lkwCLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_3522.jpg
I thought you were very astute in picking out cars. No??
Sedition is rebellion against a monarch or state.
That piece seeks to save the state. And T is not a monarch. (Yet)
Good Morning!
What? Don’t tell tell me the R class is black, a funeral wagon!
Still on the road one casino down many more to go.
You went to New Zealand. That's not cheap.
Good mlm Morning all.
You LIKE that???
The house Must win.
Says the rich lady from Fla. Ducks!
Hows the mansion rebuild going?
Liz,
To respond to your question about how accurate are the pollsters ...
The "aggregators" are pretty accurate. Typical results are off by only 2-3 points (nationally).
That said - the important variables to understand are that the smaller the pool being polled, the higher the uncertainty goes. This is not just the number of people polled - but the total size of the target.
National polls tend to be more accurate than state polls.
The fewer different pollsters involved, the more uncertainty.
In 2016, the final pre-election polls at 538 had Hillary up nationally by about 3 points - but BEFORE the election noted that Trump was much more likely (than Hillary) to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. Overall they gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning.
In most states, the polls were very accurate, (within 2-3 points).
In the rust belt, (Mich, Wisc., Penn.), they missed by wider margins (6-7 points).
The thing is, Trump won three states by less than a point. If he loses those three states, Hillary is President, and nobody even blinks - and the pollsters are lauded as perfect, (if they have been off by 5 points instead of 7).
Pretty well. One bathroom useable, except for sink..
So it hasn't gotten worse?
The pollsters really blew it by not using common sense. Pennsylvania polling was not making sense. They should have looked at that rather than accept HER 8 point lead.
And I'm mostly back. The newly designated in a fire zone rental has insurance coverage. The ancient minivan has coverage and title. The vacation plans are almost set. The concert tickets are confirmed and Ticketmaster is everything evil in a monopoly. Okay, ask questions about those things and I'll answer probably. And no, the minivan is gold not black but the rear hatch does have power up and down.
Ooo-oooo.
Just so you know. By my low standards I am rich. Everything's paid for. Our monthly income more than suffices for our expenses. I'd like to travel more, but my leg is still bothering me too much, doesn't have to do with money. My mansion is too big for us now.
Gold! Gold in them thar minivan!!
Arrrgh! There be Captain's chairs in the middle row! Arrrgh!
Not sure why you were saying the PA polls didn't make sense.
Understand that all modern polling relies on "history" to build models based on "normal" voting patterns. They are (on the whole), VERY good at this (in the US).
Where polling is very limited is picking up *NEW* patterns. The irony meter is pegged because polling is actually very backward looking, even though it is used (badly) by the media as a forward-looking tool.
NO POLLING METHOD can possibly accurately pick up a major change in human behavior BEFORE it happens. In 2016 there were two factors that bit particularly hard in the 3 key states PA, MI, WI ... a bunch of non-college whites who normally did not vote DID. And there was a massive drop in black voter turnout in those 3 states.
Was it reasonable to expect a drop in black turnout since Obama was gone? Absolutely. But how big?
Overall turnout jumped 2.4%, while NATIONALLY black turnout dropped 4.7%.
But, that wasn't evenly spread.
% of black population:
MI - 14.1%
PA - 9.87%
WI - 5.6%
WI - -12.3 black voter turnout (-1.6 white voter turnout)
PA - -2.1 black voter turnout (+5.2 white voter turnout)
MI - -12.4 black voter turnout (-2.6 white voter turnout) -
Though Wisconsin doesn't have as large a black population, they had a massive drop in turnout. PA, on the other hand, had a major surge in white turnout -- but the makeup of that white turnout was also very different from previous elections.
So, even assuming one had "perfect" national knowledge of the swings in turnout (black/white), even if you had applied them pre-election to the above 3 states - the final results would still have been way off.
And remember, it's not just one pollster - it's the net of LOTS (at least in some states), of pollsters.
I have my own theory about the mid-terms. I think "Trump" voters (those white non-college that surged in 2016) will stay home, "like normal", because Trump himself is not on the ballot. My sense is that THE MAN got them to the polls - completely apart from policy. So, candidates being "Trumpy" just won't get anywhere near the 2016 surge (even setting aside the historical norms of non-Pres party doing better in mid-terms).
But, as a pollster, what "methodology" do you use for setting up your "likely voter" model? Do you use 2014 as your baseline? Do you tweak it to account for "Trump" voters (who definitely didn't vote previously in mid-terms)?
Part of what makes the pollsters as good as they are is they have (through history) figured out processes to filter out most of the noise.
I don't get what "common sense" information would've made the PA polls obviously wrong.
The Presidential vote per party since 2000 in PA:
2000 - 50.6 - 46.4 (+4.2 D)
2004 - 51.0 - 48.5 (+2.5 D)
2008 - 54.7 - 44.3 (+10.4 D)
2012 - 52.0 - 46.6 (+5.4 D)
The final 538 PA aggregate was 48.9 - 45.2 to Clinton (+3.7)
RCP had Clinton up 2.1.
If the cabal was successful in keeping T controlled and it seems to have been, why did this highly placed person spill the beans? So he trusts nobody, even a little bit? So his head will explode? He asked his wife too! No trust there.
How many Captians does it take to sail that land yacht?
OT, I highly recommend the series of articles at "Naked Capitalism" Blog on CalPers.
Absolutely over the top incompetence, corruption and overt illegality.
Overt illegality?
How about making it written policy that board members sign off on blank, undated expense vouchers...
It's a hoot.
And it's amazing that NO ONE, including John Cox, has picked this up as a campaign issue.
GACK.
My son's house is on a flood watch. In Champaign Illinois. The baby is doing great.
Just a quick flyby to say hi.
Tom, take care of yourself.
Liz, hugs. Keep on keeping on.
Firemane, your posts are always interesting!
Hi LBD, good to see you.
Josap!
GDay
Good Morning! ��
Hi! Josap!
Made it to the first destination Laughlin NV. Home for a couple weeks.
Did I hear papadopolous got 2 weeks for his deal? A lot about nothing.
Hate spell check some times.
Hot! 👅. 111f yesterday, 113f today! But it is a dry heat. 😰
Well he wasnt supposed to get anything but made the judge mad.
No hurricanes
Am continuing to read God's Bankers. The catholic Church was unspeakably awful during the run up to WW II
You all prolly know this, hm but Pius the Something required.the Catholic Bishops in Germany to swear allegiance to the Nazis. For the money. They never liked the Jews.
If I were in the Carolinas, I'd head for the hills.
Yay. Hamilton is coming to Orlando in January. No word on price yet.
Is this site dead?
Liz: Hi!
What's the latest??
Here in Raleigh, the biggest issue is going to be rain.
Based on the latest, it will hit the coast as a Cat 3 (after peaking as a Cat 4).
Wilmington to Kitty Hawk are going to get the worst of the wind damage, (Greenville, too).
The biggest fear for me is that some of the models have it just parking itself in Greensboro and then raining itself out while stationary. The flooding in the central part of the state in that situation is going to be horrendous.
The fast movers tend to be strong and knock stuff down, the lollygaggers weaken quickly, but flood everything. The fallout from that (pun intended) will be when the ground gets wet enough trees topple from the roots.
There's a lone track model that has it heading north and smacking DC and then NYC. (That would, of course, be the "God hates Trump" model).
Good Morning!
Time flies when your having fun!
Deserving
If I were in the Carolinas, I'd head for the hills. OR, on the other side of the hills, or Floradah w oth all the hotel rooms.
Dust Devils here.
No comment. On strike.
Good Morning!
On vacation. Temps back in the 100’s.
Remember 9/11.
As an aside, Hurricane impact modeling is still in the brute force stages. The best way we've come up with to test sea walls, jetties, etc., is to combine bathymetry of the Atlantic with coastal LiDAR and start the hurricane off the coast of Africa and ram 200 simulations into the coast line to see the storm surge and combined flooding. All this must be run on the supercomuters in the basements of universities.
firemane, Keep us up to date on your location in the center of the storm track. Liz, remind us of your previous hurricane experience.
Here in Kalipornikateya we are nervious about the next couple of days due to likelihood of increased winds. It doesn't take much to get our fires going.
Found dryfly!!! He is twittering.
Hub worked for NOAA. Went on a hurricane flight. Many years ago. Learned some by osmosis. Had a house totalled by Andrew. People who don't flee, they deserve what they get. This storm will hover over the Appalations for a while probably. Very bad.
It is useless to put up that plywood. It will tear right off. FLEE.
As feared initially, this looks like a slow mover.
The most recent track has it reaching Wilmington then turning almost due west, (instead of continuing up on a diagonal toward Raleigh).
As of this moment, looks like 1/2 day of work on Thursday, then turtle until Monday.
Looks like it's going to move to the middle of SC and then just rain itself out in one spot.
Storm surge is going to brutal for NC (incoming winds), so our coast is going to get pounded. But, my best guess is that SC is ultimately going to be the real disaster area. It's nastiest when the trees topple - not due to wind - but due to ground so soft the roots don't hold.
Based on most recent wind projection maps, looks like Raleigh will get 50mph winds ... (not awful) ... but we may be in those winds off an on for as much as 48 hours. I'm REALLY hoping the wind values drop off faster than current projections.
Here 50 mph is considered a breeze, except trailor parks,and maybe even for them. I would stay, oh, up to a strong cat 1 or weak 2. Our roof is new and our house pretty hardened.up. With Dade county glass and shutters and garage door. We are on a barrier island, but there is another barrier island on the ocean side of us for a storm surge to go over and our 8 inch alp.
Where exactly are you? Hub says storm might. Go as far west as Ohio, and could possibly strengthen.
Me? I'm in Raleigh. Though I'm tentatively scheduled to play at the closing of a World Day of Prayer ceremony in Greensboro (about 70 miles west of me) Thursday at 8-9pm.
Based on latest, I'm not really wanting to be on the road between 9-11 tomorrow heading back TOWARD the storm.
Good Morning!
Hope all of you guys fair well with the storm.
Cooler today south breeze and nice enough to ride my bike for the first time this year. Still eating to much and enjoying! Gambeling not so but that is the usual for me. I keep winning at the health game so that’s the best win of all!
They might not let you. The ceremony might be cancelled. You got water?
😍😁🤩
Yay!😅😀
Did my shopping yesterday. Got gas today at lunch. (Many stations are OUT).
Plenty of non-perishable supplies.
Since I'm in the Capital, we're high priority for power and water restoration (should either go out). Honestly, I've never seen a water disruption due to storm - and I've lived here since '86.
Power can get dicey, but the long-term stuff is more likely with ice storms than hurricanes.
Sterilize your tub and fill it up.
Or not.
Don't be a Darwin Award candidate.
Getting a half day in at work.
Based on current projections, I'm still planning on doing the Greensboro gig. Florence definitely appears to be a lollygagger.
Flo is still going to be 50 miles off the coast at 6am TOMORROW, and Wilmington is 120 miles away from me. I'll have to deal with the very outermost rain band - but even Tropical Storm winds won't reach Raleigh until well into Friday.
I'm all set - patio furniture stored. Rations stocked. Water ready. I have 3 toilets and live alone, so that's at least 3 flushes before I even have to worry about running water. Filled my Prius yesterday, which has a 650 mile range per tank, so even after I get back from Greensboro, I'm set for 2-3 weeks. :)
In the end, barring a sudden change in heading, mostly it just means a 3 day weekend for me ... and my Sunday soccer game will likely be cancelled.
Yeah, mainly a rain event I think.
Just did my laser Therapy.
Good afternoon,
Nice 106f today! Time to clean house then dinner and a concert!
Storm update, everyone still OK?
No storm here. Firemaine??? He was gonna stay in Raleigh. Haven't here since. Everyone else has abandoned us.
Hey, Firem, are you out there? Anybody else?
Good Morning!
108f today, heat creeping back up. Visitors today.
Great day yesterday. Good eats, had blackened fish tacos and fried cod fish tacos last Tuesday. Going back for taco Tuesday, they are the best so far.
Good to hear Firemaine took shelter else where. Crazy storm.
He did? He'll have a story to tell!
I like fried and blackened.
Good morning, if anybody's there. Where the heck is dawg?
Good Morning!
Still here, visitors yesterday had a great time.
I thought others would take over if I was gone for a while. Not enough insults and fighting to make a conversation.
Yeah.
Well, good nite
Firemane here.
As expected, for Raleigh, it's just been wet.
Plenty of land southeast of here is full out Noah territory.
Me? I got a day off work on Friday - and my Sunday soccer match was cancelled. Didn't even get a power bump at The Sand Castle, (that's what I call my townhouse).
Oddly enough, this morning was probably peak 'scare' for me. Latest band of thunderstorms spawned some tornadoes just north of Durham. That was enough to make me delay heading in to work by 15.
I'm not prone to cabin fever, but the permanent overcast (since last Thursday) is starting to get to me.
Good Morning!
Good to hear you are well and safe.
109f here today. Early bike ride before it gets to hot.
Glad to hear you are ok. It's just ordinary hot here. Bathroom coming along nicely, then on to the next bathroom. We did have a minor crisis. Outlet pipe on A/c got stopped up. They came out right away and all is well.
Zillow keeps raising our house price little by little, even though I don't think they are aware of improvements. Same with my son's in Illinois
House next door says impending contract, but no sale so far. I hope we get nice neighbors.
Let's assume for argument's sake that Kav really did it and assume he didn't ever do it again. Would he deserve to drag this around for the rest of his life? I don't know. Then there is the foreclosure thing. I think I'd want to know more. Are the original paper pleadings still around or transferred to electronics? Anybody can look at them then. Most such docs don't tell you much but I'd want to talk a peak. It strikes me as unusual or odd, hm but I'm used to big big counties.
Making statements from long ago like hers need proof. The mind bends to fit our rational. IMO.
I am not sure we should obsess about it, unless it happened more than once. And there's the foreclore thing. Does hmm the other kid who was there remember anything?
I think I want to know more.
The event should have revealed when it took place. This alone appears To be politically motivated which I say ignore it.
T mumbled something about this needed to be got thru and something I interpreted to mean more investigation. I near said anything about my father hugging me inappropriately and before she died I asked her why she didn't do anything and she said I don't know. Oh, it happened all right.
My mom, that is. He didn't stop when I struggled.
My thoughts:
My default position is to believe female victims because society has allowed men to get away with this type of thing for thousands of years. And while there is "some" movement in the right direction - one only needs to look at the Larry Nassar situation to understand why women don't come forward. Because they are ***TAUGHT*** that bringing up any of this stuff will:
1) Be ignored.
2) Paint them as evil doers.
The simple, unerring truth of sexual misconduct for the past 2,000 years is white males get away with any and everything. Girls are blamed for everything. It's estimated that less than a third of all sexual assaults are reported to police and date rate or acquaintance rape is the most unreported, (estimates as high as 90%).
While I personally think High School actions in general should be irrelevant for selection to the SC -- I find it galling when I hear arguments from those on the right who castigated Hillary Clinton for "going after" the victims of Bill Clinton's sexual misconduct and then without hesitation do the exact same thing when a claim is made against someone on the right -- "It's just made up political BS - etc."
But, we elected a man, who not only admitted, but BRAGGED about grabbing women by the pussy. So, even if video tape of the alleged assault were aired tomorrow, why should we expect it have any bearing on this guy's fitness for office?
Good morning!
The event should have been pursued at the time and not politically motivated now.
Men have been the aggressor since the beginning of time. The degree is determined by many factors, some by the woman. IMO!
Not that T has any.
T’s locker room talk is possibly boys lying about their manhood. Again where is the proof? Charges filed? Sure seems like the right thing to do.
I don't want a boy at the head of my nation
Where is dawg? Everybody else?
Vote him out then and it’s back to the same old corruption game. Which IMO is worse.
You think T isn't corrupt?
Bless your heart.
At this point he is pushing for what Americans have wanted for a long time. Of course he will benefit and bring home a win, not a total sell out like many previous Preasidents. Some times you need to dance with the devil to get what you need.
LBD,
Thanks for proving my point so perfectly.
When a woman accuses a man of attempted rape - she is immediately accused of lying - of being a political pawn, etc. - despite the fact that she personally has absolutely nothing to gain from it - and can expect the predictable victim blaming and smear campaign that inevitably follows.
When a man PROFESSES to committing sexual assault on multiple women - he is assumed to be just making it up - it's just "locker room talk" to make himself "look better."
=====
As for Trump - after the Access Hollywood Tape 19 different women came forward to **CONFIRM** that Trump was telling the truth.
There's at least one pending lawsuit (Summer Servos) still in the courts.
We know with certainty at this point that Trump has on multiple occasions paid women for their silence in response to sexual dalliances, (consensual or otherwise).
As I noted above - the reality is that women KNOW that making these allegations is typically a losing proposition - so they do their best to put it behind them and move on. This is especially true, if the person you are going to accuse happens to be a billionaire.
So ... we have a man who ADMITS to grabbing women ... and we have 19 different women who step up and CONFIRM that he was telling the truth ... and the response ***STILL*** is that the women and Trump are *ALL* lying. Why? Because Trump was 100% correct. Because he is rich, he can get away with pretty much anything he wants with women, and there is not a single solitary thing they can do about it that does not make the situation worse for THEM.
Mind you - none of them accused him of actual rape (that I am aware of). So, the actions are the kind that simply don't ever get prosecuted criminally. And any civil suit would immediately be painted with the women as a money-grubbing opportunist.
Weinstein, Cosby, Nassar ... these guys got away with much worse behavior than Trump for DECADES ... and the only reason they eventually are facing consequences is that some brave woman came forward and then a host of other women jumped in to CONFIRM the behavior.
Heck, Bill Clinton got away with the same type of behavior as Gov. of Arkansas.
Good morning!
I don’t think I made your point at all. She brings up an event that needs reviewed IF she had done the right thing and reported it to authorities in a reasonable window of time with documention, No police report no crime, he said she said bickering. Funny thing about renters and broken doors at move out. They claim someone tried to break in but didn’t bother to call the police. Big chance it was the Ex or the jelouse lover. Not attacking her but the time line and the games memories play and politics. Way to many points, like timing draging on this till after the election, party power and about the only effective tool the Dems have left. If anything you have decided with her. Lies everywhere and they all seem to disappear after the election.
Clinton? I am all for not investigating only when they are actions before they where in office. Clinton needed called on the carpet for actions while in offices, the rest has become a political tool of politics disrupting the whole system.
Wienstein, Cosby and Nassau all took advantage of of their position and women putting themselves in compromising posistions and I bet some willing. Ugly but honest.
Stormy described his equipment In intimate detail. Said equipment was unique, and not in a pleasing way.
But At this point, I just don't want him to blow up the world. Behaving sexually is an extremely distant 2nd or 3rd. Also, Kav is too conservative for me. Repealing the tax cuts fo billionaires is important to me. Building infrastructure of roads and bridges and dams is important, and why not use competent military contractors, and cut off paying for equipment that even the military doesn't use.
Or want. Are aliens about to invade?
Also I had some similar things happen to me, one is described upthread. There was absolutely no one to tell. I believe these women. Now this may become fashionable and some twisted teen may report this in revenge for some slight or a bad grade, but as to old stuff, no. It was horrible and painful.
My education was my grandmother saying never take candy from a stranger. She never said why. At the time I thought kidnapping.
Good news. If you are reading this the issue with Google sign in is resolved and back to regular posting.
I wondered being on the road and cell connected. I still have to sign in every time.
I dont.
So this was a superglitch?
Yay. Dawg is back. And, yay, yay, unemployment claims are 'way 'way down.
And everybody, talking ml heads and alo, are talking about recession and when it will come. Therefore, my call for same
Is going out another year. Nobody is calling any kind of get rich-quick scheme. Therefore, 2 years from now, instead of one year.
IMO
My get rich Casino scam still works I put money and she takes it out and will go home with a good take. LOL!
White table cloth dining was fantastic, had an amazing steak Diane. So tender you could cut it with a butter knife. Then saw the best concert of the stay CSN express. Crosby Stills and Nash tribute band with Neil Young, Joni Mitchell and Judy Collins as well. Reminds me of how good instrumental complemented singing. Great time ��
Great!!
Am going out to do yoga. Bathroom close to done, really nice.
Good night!
They found 3200 year old cheese in an Egyption tomb. No crackers though.
They found a finger bone which is half neanderthal and half denesovian
Keep me away from SCIENCE NEWS.
But wait, there's more.
I'm reading Woodward.
Beautiful evening at the London Bridge.
Today you have to lie to sell books, everybody sells books real dirt or not stretched to points of insanity. By the way where is Omorosa, the porn star and her dirt bag lawyer?
Haven't got that fat. Harry Potter?. Come on. Mr bathroom is nearly nearly done. Things like door knobs on cabinets. Then on to the next bathroom, and they are putting on new cedar shingles and have started to paint.
Good day!
Political tell all books should be classified a fiction with out real proof. IMO.
Far... I can see your point. But most think that way any how.
I thought I was the only one on vacation? Are we That Boring?
You aren't and I'm not boring. Perhaps we are so intelligent we are scaring people off.
Good Morning!
I’crazy And fun for an old guy. New grips on my highly modified Handel bars, time for a test ride.
Nitey nite all, or at least LBD.
Test.
Crikey, what a process to post.
C
My owner rights to efit/post seem straightened out. New posts resume AM pacific time when I get kicked to the gardencsged of spousal exile. Lots of great things to discuss. And welcome back Counterpointer. Amazing who washes up on these far flung shores.
Beck at the Hollywood Bowl Friday.
Danny Elfnan directs orchestra to Nightmare before Christmas but between that the grand foliage tour in two weeks.
Some eye popping real estate deals lately.
UST yield curve to go wonky soon.
Bluetooth bone conduction and industrial total earplugs are the only way to fly.
Low/no downpayment loanscare back. Ugly.
Like I said. Lots going on. Stay tuned.
From the far-flung shores, credit to you RD, you're a survivor, guess I am too given what we've bin through.
Celebrate good times c'mon!
This is me and Rob fkn around during the GFC:
http://exurbannation.blogspot.com/2008/
Hello to Firemane and other ex HCN crew. You were stalwarts, standouts and good equilibria when I was losing my sht in DC ten years ago.
Thanks for tolerance, acceptance, and in some cases recognition for what I brought to bear.
Keep going all. There's an adventure ahead.
C
Oops, how does this ID thing work?
Test.
C
Did you find your shirt?
Did you go direct some school?
Did you get it back again?
Off to silver Sneakers. I really have some history homework I have to do
Gosh, it's been that long?
A kavanaugh thought. These parents were sending the kids off to a school where there there was heavy drinking a lot of the time. Apparently nobody cared, the teachers, the parents, who ever was in charge of the dorms, the homeowner, anybody.
Parents exist to prevent kids from doing stuff like that, and whatever bad consequences follow. Abdicated responsibility. Sigh, perhaps the parents would have taken a boys will be boys attitude anyway.
Oh, silly me I forgot teachers at private schools. Well, I don't think they would have felt it was their job.
New post and changes coming.
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