Super Blue Blood Moon

Start of Totality

Maximum

Just coming out

CAHSR 'Worst-case scenario has happened'

California bullet train cost surges by $2.8 billion: 'Worst-case scenario has happened'

LATimes: The estimated cost of building 119 miles of bullet train track in the Central Valley has jumped to $10.6 billion, an increase of $2.8 billion from the current budget and up from about $6 billion originally.

The new calculation takes into account a number of intractable problems encountered by the state rail agency. It raises profoundly difficult questions about how the state will complete what is considered the nation's largest infrastructure project with the existing funding sources.

...

It remains unclear how the Central Valley cost increases will affect the total program, which under the 2016 business plan is supposed to cost $64 billion. But the jump in the Central Valley — a 77% increase above the original estimate — suggests the authority and its consultants have vastly underestimated the difficulties of buying land, obtaining environmental approvals, navigating through complex litigation and much else.

 Amazing.  Who could have seen this coming? 

Oroville Dam Update

Tip o'the hat to Jim the Realtor at bubbleinfo.com

LATimes:  The cost of the Oroville Dam spillway failure last February has risen to $870 million, according to a new tally released Friday by the Department of Water Resources that includes $210 million of work done by agency staff and consultants.
...
The concrete did not cure properly, because an outage at the concrete plant caused delays that let hot winds dry the concrete too quickly, the department said.
 -----

Total and complete bullshit.  Concrete does not "dry."  Concrete sets/cures.  It takes decades for concrete to actually dry.  They screwed up the mix. 

Hold onto your wallets the price increases are not finished. 

Articl 1 - Section 10

Article 1 - The Legislative Branch
Section 10 - Powers Prohibited of States

No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.

No State shall, without the Consent of the Congress, lay any Imposts or Duties on Imports or Exports, except what may be absolutely necessary for executing it's inspection Laws: and the net Produce of all Duties and Imposts, laid by any State on Imports or Exports, shall be for the Use of the Treasury of the United States; and all such Laws shall be subject to the Revision and Controul of the Congress.

No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

[Bolding added for focus.] 

[ 7 Jun 2017] California Governor Jerry Brown signed a new climate change agreement between the State of California and the People’s Republic of China on Tuesday.  LINK

-----

May 18, 2015 | 4:44 PM | Sacramento

Gov. Jerry Brown makes a toast to Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto in August. California and Mexico signed an agreement to work together on climate change when the governor was visiting the state's southern neighbor last year. (Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press)

Gov. Jerry Brown will sign a new climate change agreement with "government leaders from around the world" on Tuesday, his office announced.

The agreement comes three weeks after the governor ordered new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in California. He's also been pushing for more renewable energy, lower gasoline consumption and better efficiency in older buildings. LINK

-----

 IMO it is dangerous to ignore this any longer. 

An Unusual Idea of Constitutional

At a press conference in Washington D.C., Garcetti accused the Trump administration of practicing the "politics of distraction and destruction." "There is not a single mayor in this country that says 'Please, if you're a criminal, come on over. And if you're undocumented, bonus points!' This is a myth," Garcetti said. The mayor of L.A., who is in D.C. to attend the annual U.S. Conference of Mayors, said he will continue following the law when it comes to illegal immigrants. "You can threaten subpoenas, you can threaten arrests, and we will keep abiding by the constitution and keeping our people safe."

-----

Funny.  I usually think of refusing subpoenas and resisting arrest weren't law abiding acts. 

California Defies Interstate Commerce Clause

No preference shall be given by any regulation of commerce or revenue to the ports of one state over those of another: nor shall vessels bound to, or from, one state, be obliged to enter, clear or pay duties in another.

Despite this clear prohibition California since Jan 1st has required that you buy your ammunition in-state.

The clash US v CA is coming.    

College Debt Delaying Homeownership

Housingwire:

But now, a new study shows the student debt crisis could be worse than anyone thought. Currently, at nearly $1.4 trillion in outstanding loans, student debt is the second largest source of household debt after housing, and the only form of consumer debt than continued to grow after the Great Recession, according to a new report from The Brookings Institution, a nonprofit public policy organization.

 -----

Hard to see a way out.  

Interim Montecito Update

Late to the party. Apologies.

Flooded 101 Overpass in Montecito

The mudslides are... well... there are no words. This is God sweeping his scythe across the land. CalTrans thinks they will have cleared the road and unclogged the culverts and inspected the surface to reopen the 101 late Monday. I suspect it will be Tuesday morning or even Wednesday. The "debris" is turning out to include bits of victims. Slows down the process obviously. The remaining Thomas Fires are small remote and not threatening. The missing persons list is down to 5 with no increase in death totals. Santa Barbara County has expanded the mandatory evacuation zone to facilitate clean up. They are forcibly removing people who were/are sheltering in place and comfortable for management reasons. They are projecting many weeks but more likely months before being allowed to return. The "Surfliner" Amtrak is running and I saw it pass through Oxnard earlier as full as I have ever seen it. The Channel Islands ferries are re-purposed for commuters past the freeway closure. Tens of billions worth of properties are affected but since 90% is in the value of the land I don't know how to value the actual losses.

Flooding in montecito

Mandatory evacuation Tues 09 Jan '18. 

This is a map of the recent mud flows that have destroyed many houses and snapped miles of telephone poles.  Click on the map and check out the for sale and recent selling prices. 

Sorm Clouds Over Burn Area

Camarillo looking north 08 Jan 18. Click to enlarge.

A short break in the system brought out this interesting cloud pattern. 

Noncommital Weather

The Sahara Desert This week. 

Posted for beauty not advocacy. 

Smoke Tax

Click for larger

60% at the wholesale level and $2.75-$9.25 per ounce retail.  Duuuude. 

High Noon

Since no one guessed or looked it up the house in the previous post sold Jun '15 for $125,000.  Listed now for $219,000. 

Wrightwood Looking Toppy

1534 Betty St, Wrightwood, CA 92397

2 beds 1 bath 816 sqft

Charming mountain get-away, built in 1933 has an over-abundance of charm. Features include, many upgrades including kitchen, bathroom. new flooring throughout. additional features include single story, great room, swedish stove, wood beamed ceiling, 2 bedrooms (must go thru one br to access 2nd),

When you start seeing properties hit the market like this it is likely the begining of the end.  You might note I haven't linked the price.  As a hint last sold 06/19/15 for $125,000. 

Everyone Talks about the Weather

...but only capitalists are doing things to change it.  Just kidding.

Here's a great place to bookmark:

National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

Trustbusting

The globe’s 500 richest people, as measured by the Bloomberg billionaires index, have seen the value of the wealth increase by 23% so far this year, taking their combined fortunes to $5.3tn. The increase is largely the result of booming stock markets. The MSCI World Index and the US Standard & Poor’s 500 are both up almost 20% so far this year. The UK’s FTSE 100 is up more than 6% – and hit a new closing high of 7,620.7 points on Wednesday.
Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, is the world’s richest man. His fortune has increased by $34.2bn so far this year to take his “net worth” to $99.6bn. On just one day in October Bezos’s fortune increased by $10.3bn, when Amazon posted profits much higher than analysts had expected and the company’s shares spiked.
Bezos,53, who founded Amazon in his Seattle garage in 1994, owns 16% of the retailer. He also owns all of space exploration company Blue Origin and the Washington Post newspaper, which he bought for $250m in 2013.

 -----

 A century ago companies with far less market control were broken up. 

Initial Jobless Claims

Excerpt:

UNADJUSTED DATA The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 321,945 in the week ending December 23, an increase of 34,472 (or 12.0 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 34,036 (or 11.8 percent) from the previous week. There were 343,213 initial claims in the comparable week in 2016. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent during the week ending December 16, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 1,978,197, an increase of 13,146 (or 0.7 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 5,808 (or 0.3 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.5 percent and the volume was 2,117,870.

----- 

Nothing much to report as it has been for a year.   Seeing as it is the last report before the hugely unreliable seasonal adjustment season I thought is best to establish a baseline.

Holiday Sales; Blowout or Blowoff?

From the always reliable USA Today:

Despite thousands of store closings this year, Americans supplied a final flurry of spending to give retailers their best holiday season sales since 2011, figures released Tuesday show.
U.S. year-end holiday retail sales rose 4.9% compared to the same period last year, a welcome gift to U.S. retailers amid new signs of consumer confidence.

File photo shows last-minute Christmas shoppers at The Grove, a retail shopping complex in Los Angeles on Sunday, Dec. 24, 2017.

Richard Vogel, AP

Online retail shopping similarly increased 18.1%, while overall consumer buying during the holiday period set a record for dollars spent, according to the sales report issued by Mastercard SpendingPulse.
"Overall, this year was a big win for retail," Sarah Quinlan, senior vice president of Market Insights, Mastercard, said in a statement issued with the report. "The strong U.S. economy was a contributing factor, but we also have to recognize that retailers who tried new strategies to engage holiday shoppers were the beneficiaries of this sales increase."
Although the report showed the 2017 holiday shopping season from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 was a winner for all retailers, the results differed by category. Retailers that succeeded tapped into:

• Home goods. There was no place like home for the holidays for many shoppers, who sent sales of electronics and appliances up 7.5%, the strongest growth of the last 10 year. Sales of home furniture and furnishings separately grew 5.1%.
• Heavy early-season promotions. They worked, with the first three weeks of November delivering significant sales increases.
• Last-minute shopping. The spending spree lasted late into the holiday season, making last Saturday second only to the post-Thanksgiving Black Friday in terms of single-day spending. Jewelry sales rose 5.9%, largely driven by last-minute sales.

The findings were based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, along with survey based-estimates for other forms of payment, including cash and checks, Mastercard said. The data exclude auto sales.

-----

 As sm-refugee asked in the previous comments.  Are the sales figures fake news or the just released consumer confidence numbers a big lie? 

The headline index fell to 122.1, making for a much steeper drop than economists had forecast. They were expecting a fall to 128.0 from November's 128.6, according to Bloomberg.
Consumers were more positive about present conditions but were mixed on the state of the labor market.
The percentage of those who said business conditions were "good" increased to 35.2% from 35%, while those saying business conditions were "bad" slipped to 12.1% from 12.3%.
People claiming jobs were "plentiful" fell to 35.7% from 37.5%, while those claiming jobs were "hard to get" hit a 16-year low of 15.2%, down from 16.8%.
"Consumer confidence retreated in December after reaching a 17-year high in November," said Lynn Franco, the director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. "The decline in confidence was fueled by a somewhat less optimistic outlook for business and job prospects in the coming months. Consumers' assessment of current conditions, however, improved moderately.

 My take is a little of both and a helping of tax uncertainty. 
• Sales; I think it likely the surveys are capturing more than ever with big data.  I also think people are spending bigger when it means smarter.  In the great Recession you didn't buy 6 months of toilet paper ar Costco even if it was by far the best deal.  
• Confidence; Last month was a big number.  a drop is expected.  It dropped a bit more than that but nothing near a trend break. 
• Taxes; No doubt many of the surveys were in the middle of the tax debate.  Uncertainty yields caution. 

What does everyone else think? 

Christmas Day 2017

The beach near sm_refugee

Before

The stockings being attacked with glee

After

Alfred Ray Burrell Etching

Apologies for the slash lines but I've been unable to find anything about this image and none exists AFAICT on the internet.  If I'm going to donate it, it I want to protect the interests of the recipient. 

The cabin in the meadow suggests a very early etching.