Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
$150 per Day
That's how much the median home in Ventura County has lost every day for the past year. What would you rather do with $150 per day? Of course that's not the story. What were the carrying costs for the privilege? The house would have cost $580k so $18 per day in taxes and $125 per day mortgage. Now that's not fair because you need to live somewhere so back out $80 per day to rent. Annualized: renter $30,000, homemoaner $107,000. Not a good year to own and now that we have you trapped the real news is that next year will be far worse.
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13 comments:
I would love to be FIRST.
On a more serious note, there's still more downward pressure on prices. Just read an article in the Sac Bee about Treasury Secretary Paulsen coming to town and talking about the housing situation. Incredibly, the article mention a 25 month supply of houses currently on the market. I cannot fathom how a city works through a number like that.
Sac Re Agent
Call your buddies in Detroit or Flint. I am sure they can fill you in.
h.
I read somewhere recently that the population of resident Californians is dropping while its "international" population is growing. I am sure glad I sold and rent.
Sac RE,
In less than 3 weeks Arnold will declare a fiscal emergency and likely propose a hiring freeze, immediate 10% across the board department level cuts and ask for significant staffing cutbacks. The budget is 40% larger than when he took office. Sacramento is going to be absolutely crushed. It may not look like it but Sacto does not have a diverse economy. Just natural resources and a service economy. Very very ugly.
A population trend analysis later today.
In Marin, we're not seeing much of a decline in the median price yet the low-end market is tanking. To illustrate this Marinite featured a house that was once listed at 884K that dropped to 675K in July. Well, that is the same short sale house that I was interested in and is currently listed at 490K.
In honor of xmas:
Jingle mail! Jingle mail! Jingle all the way!
Ain't thermodynamics great? Sort of makes life seem so comfortably predictable.
Good thing life is still full of surprises and California is filling up with cheap labor- I forecast big opportunities, but it's no state for old men!
chickenlittle,
Thermodynamics is not always great. Let's just say that I refer to our two preschoolers as "The Lords of Entropy".
NR
PS Non-scientists don't get the joke, but most scientists/engineers enjoy it.
My kids are entropy catalysts.
Mine can suck the energy out of singularities.
Here’s something new and sure to spark some discord in the EN readership.
Check out
this house at 1342 Gertrude St:
Nothing too spectacular EXCEPT THE RATIO 2007 property tax to Zestimate: $485/580,518 or less than one tenth of a percent! 500 hundred dollars a year on a half million dollar home!
Now check out
this house at 1364 Gertrude:
The homes are similarly valued, as they should be: they were built around the same time (late 1950’s). Outwardly, they even appear to be the same floor plan (full disclosure: I’ve driven past them and they must be related); 1364 Gertrude actually has a better view of Mission Bay on account of the commercial structure directly behind 1342. The ratio of tax to value on 1364 is just under 0.4.
Justified or not, prop 13 was never intended to bring us to this disparity. It’s only a matter of time now before things change.
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