Monday, December 17, 2007

Place Your Bets 3

The really smart dudes over at Calculated Risk who allow me to hang around for their amusement value have a bet going on.

Who will be the first HB to BK?

Here's the bets so far:

AllenM - KBH
Dawg - RYL
Nemo - WCI
central - SPF

Anyone else?


Peripheral Visionary said...

If we're gambling, go ahead and put my virtual money on BZH. I don't have any special information on them, just a guess (although I haven't heard anything but negative concerning them.)

Peripheral Visionary said...

For what it's worth, I think the major homebuilders will suffer major casualties, but some will survive (Toll comes to mind as a possible survivor.) Enough cash and enough of a presence in the few markets that aren't collapsing (rural areas, the Midwest, etc.) may allow a few of the most capable companies to limp through.

It's the regional builders who will be absolutely devastated. Builders who were completely exposed to the wrong markets (e.g. SoCal, Florida, Arizona), and who won't be able to move anything at so much as break-even prices. The very small builders will survive, as they can get by with rehabs, small commercial, etc., though even those will become hard to find. But the bigger and the more regionally concentrated, the more likely to fail.

Bakersfield Bubble said...

My first choice is alreadh bust #12 TOA, so I will go with SPF.

ratlab said...

I'd go with SPF given exposure to bad markets and they fact that some of the bigger HB might have enough "cash" to hold them through this storm. I suppose I could check their financials, but that requires work.

Rob Dawg said...

The 'game' gets hard real quick. St. Joes has no chance of surviving independent. Bubble builder Pardee is protected for now by big momma. Las Vegas is going to see many dozens of BKs that have weird names like '32nd of november investment partners.' Any number of bagholders are going to 'stay in business' until enough time passes to protect the real owners.

I agree that TOL is likely to be a survivor for now.

Edgar said...

Does bought out count, or is it just BK? TOL was one of the few biggies that kept adding inventory last year. Besides, I hate the Bob Toll maggot.

Jim the Realtor said...

Put down LEN for me.

No scientific evidence, just a hunch - look at their boys and their income:

CEO, age 49, $5.71 million
CFO, age 48, $1.87 million
COO, age 47, $2.69 million
EVP, age 45, $4.88 million

They are still young enough to be doing crack and hanging out at strip clubs.

Akubi said...

As a vintage home enthusiast, I really don't much care about new homebuilders and never bothered investing in them. They can shove their POS, poorly built homes up their ass (wish the upstairs neighbors vacuuming above would do the same).
However, I’ve been pretty disturbed about my recent short sale findings. I thought the subprime market was mainly non-jumbo loans. How the flying fuck can some guy of unknown source of origin, employment, SS# have procured 100+ financing for ¾ million in July 2006?
When I slept on that last night, I realized it is definitely time to hunker down. The fact that the appliance hawking “owner” guy could get a loan for more than I would ever want to take on somewhat scares the shit out of me.

Rob Dawg said...

I was struggling for a polite way to bring you to that conclusion. Right now the pool is polluted. Even if you don't personally pee in the pool it really isn't safe until we drain it and scrub it an ban those idiots.

Let the bank clean up the paper trail and discharge all the liens and pay the taxes and take it in the shorts if there are any hidden loans or encumbrances.

tk said...

Put me down for MTH.

Peripheral Visionary said...

If I could just co-opt this blog space for a short complaint, I need to say that something stinks at Goldman, and it isn't just the fridge in the executive suite that hasn't been cleaned in a while.

Everyone connected with mortgages in any way has been losing phenomenal amounts of money, and yet they're still solidly in the black? And the story is that it's their genius and magical foresight that has garnered them the big profits, but I'm not buying it. Their hedge funds are losing money but the parent company is making money . . . hmm. Say, I wonder how that could be.

And their balance sheet stayed in the black just in time for big year-end bonuses . . . how convenient!

Metroplexual said...

I gree with Jim, Lennar. I have seen enough bad press on them regarding quality issues as well as financials.

Rob Dawg said...

Something doesn't add up. GS says they got on the opposite side of the lending/credit crisis and are making money. They are so big it should be possible to find out who took the other side of the bet. I think they just made up and back dated some huge leveraged trades against their own crap. When the Fed went to manufacturing money with electrons they overlooked the fact that they weren't the only ones with electrons.