Friday, June 13, 2008

Good News? Not

The "PE" is an inland newspaper that reports on Riverside, San Bernardino and environs. They have this wierd little piece today:
Inland foreclosure auctions draw more sales as lenders get more flexible about prices
Investors bought more foreclosed homes on the courthouse steps in California last month, reflecting a growing willingness of lenders to accept more deeply discounted bids, ForeclosureRadar, a Web site that tacks foreclosure auctions, reported Wednesday.

Despite more than 97 percent of the foreclosed properties being returned to the lender after auction, there was a 34.6 percent increase in properties purchased by third parties, which most likely were investors, the report said.

Sorry but 3% is not an upturn, it is noise. In fact what this implies is really bad news. not only are the banks not availing themselves of the courthouse steps option but likely there is a rise in the number of people with equity starting to default. Remember, I predicted that last year. The blogosphere is worried that people 10% underwater are going to walk. I'm worried that the really smart homeowners who have 10% equity are going to see the value of defaulting. Think about it. A years free rent, no taxes, no HOA. Your paltry 10% equity is evaporating over that time anyway and you can't sell. Besides those bloodsucking realtors aren't going to get another 6%. Heck, Countrywide might even give you a nice $2500 severance package.

12 months of ruthless squatting gives you a full down payment on a better house. Sounds like a plan.


bohica said...

But First the deadbeats (to be), must acquire the property.

Joe said...

The recession in the IE has only begun. These areas held on when gas prices were low and they could do those 100 mile commutes.

I expect prices to fall by at least 50% from the highs.

My wifes cousin just walked away from a house he bought in the IE, 2006 . We tried to warn him not to buy, but of course he did not listen(Used an ARM Loan).

w said...

It is a good thing the IE has those cool summers and they do not need air conditioning. And imagine if we had a drought requiring water rationing.

Rob Dawg said...

I don't think we've even seen the start of pain in the IE. I don't care if gas goes back down to $2 the party is over. Probably some of this is my personal preference that prevents me from seeing the value of the IE for any reason more significant than restrooms on the way to Palm Springs but now the curtain has been pulled back revealing the entire region to be a pyramid scheme.

Lost Cause said...

Inflation is up, rates are going up, adjustables are not even going to wait for Uncle Ben. More leg room for the IE real soon now.

Peripheral Visionary said...

Rob, I think you're correct, the value of "stay ins" getting a free year (or more) of rent is just beginning to sink in. That's a LOT of money, especially for a family that's living on the edge of prosperity. I seriously doubt they will save any of it--more likely is that the lack of rent will allow the consumption binge to continue for that much longer.

Individual stories I'm hearing are indicating that foreclosures are SLOW--taking sometimes longer than a year to fully process, with banks having way too many other things going on that are higher priority. People will start wondering why they're making payments when they could be staying for free . . . the new squatters are coming, and they look an awful lot like average middle-class Americans.