Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Diving Back In

Peripheral Visionary says:
Rob, I have to give you credit on the market calls: you don't worry about timing, but the direction has been right more often than not.

I'd love to get back into this market, but volatility and irrational exuberance being what it is, I'm having to sit it out. Still in gold, I hate it as an "investment" (it's not), but what choice do I have? In twelve months it will be one huge round of monetary authorities trying to debase their currency faster than their neighbors, no choice but to try and hedge for now. If oil takes another leg down I may switch to it as my currency hedge, but I'm not completely decided on that.
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Thanks. It should be noted that you can either call market direction or you can call times but not both. I've been lucky with my calling the direction and I'll take that. The good news about 7800 is that it isn't being labelled an Obama bounce.

I'm with you PV. There's going to be an entry point eventually. If S&P goes to 550 it would be hard to pick a bad stock from the survivors. I've mentioned before the possibility of Microsoft selling for less than their cash on hand. We may get double luck with Apple if it experiences its usual big giveback at the same time the market goes down in general. Maybe something in the $60s? Wood products are beaten down as well.

So. Anything I like now? No. nothing. I'm not going to even look at anything with an eye to buying now. Too many elephants dancing for my tastes. When I dive in I'll make sure I'm well equipped and I'll announce my intentions in advance.

9 comments:

Jean ValJean said...

at FIRST, I didn't know what the picture of the lovely lady had to do with the topic, but then I re-read the TITle, and it all made sense.

Lost Cause said...

S&P 550. hehe. Why not make it 500? It has a nice sound to it.

Aaron said...

Do I get kudos for calling 6500 as the bottom for the dow? I know it went under by 20 points but still....come on! I am not an optimist but I am not sure we fall below that. We may retest it again but I think it will hold. So now may I please have my prize? some fishnet goodies?

Jean ValJean said...

BTW, Alabama may beat Cali to Chapter 9

Peripheral Visionary said...

My feelings with regard to the market are fairly well captured by a cat's feelings with regard to water. I can swim, but it's going to take a lot to get me in the water.

Son of Brock Landers said...

I've been slightly in for months and have mentioned it a few times here. Rob makes a good point about selling for less than cash on hand. i'm looking at nat gas plays with debt that doesnt come due for years.

thanks for opening back up mr dawg. where else will i get a great combination of witty econ-housing commentary and late 90s early 2000s glamour model shots?

tj and the bear said...

Aaron,

We haven't hit bottom yet, so don't go thinking the contest is over. :-)

Akubi said...

As long as you have a roof over your head and something to eat, money is an abstraction.

Aaron said...

we'll see TJ. I have been playing in the market but I am not keeping my chips in for very long. short term plays. there's lots of money to be made and the financials have been terrific players! Just don't invest long term right now. We have plenty of time to place our bets long term. no hurries. Honestly I would like it to drop back down. If it did I would definitely have to slide about 50% back in for the long haul. Getting kind of tired of the short term plays as you have to pay more attention to what's going on.