Monday, March 23, 2009

Forget Normal Sales

Here's a Redfin search of a neighborhood in Hesperia, California:


Those little purple spots are REOs. The green spots are supposedly regular MLS listings but it is often hard to really tell. Short sales are such a pain sellers don't mention it anymore. Flips 6 weeks out of foreclosure are looking to appear normal. Certainly in this neighborhood anyone who bought retail is severely impaired.

It's raining knives. Let's drill down on some of these.
9001 Seal Beach Dr
Wow! lowest price in the area, Just reduced.
$175k.

Lowest priced? Really? Check out:
9120 Seal Beach Dr
Price: $170,500
Or:
13032 Napa Ct
$139k.

You all need to go to the Redfin search and look at the original purchase prices and first sale dates and such. 13032 Napa Ct; Last Sale: $345,000 (03/01/2006)

Near new, sitting unsold for 5 months at less than $50/sf. Of course if you pick up this sweet deal expect to pay $500/month in taxes. Yep, California, land of the 1% Prop 13 tax and you get saddled with 4%, higher than Texas.

8 comments:

wagga said...

First, can you explain how taxes get to 4% from the Prop 13 1% max?

Mr. Outspoken said...

They're the government. They calculate the market value as what a "rational" market would buy it for. Same as they price the assets for the TARP.

Lex said...

Are there really Elm trees in SoCal?

Cobradriver said...

Rob,

Here ya go...A sale just around the corner from me here in Port Charlotte...

6 /1998 IMPROVED $74,000
6 /2002 IMPROVED $73,000
12/2002 IMPROVED $120,000
4 /2006 IMPROVED $199,900
9 /2007 IMPROVED $100
1 /2009 IMPROVED $72,000

September of 07 was back to the bank. I followed this house from a listing price of 210K all the way till it dropped off 14 months later at 85K...As of today this place might bring 60K. Maybe.

Chris

Can ya spot the bubble:)?

wagga said...

I see Mr. DJ has gotten back in bed with the strange attractor Ms. 7800.

Rob Dawg said...

Hey Wagga!,
I was just thinking of you.

Anyway. You are correct sir. I was going to make one of those annoying smug posts where I mention how I predicted the Obama bounce back to the higher strange attractor. This is it. Could it get 200 more? Absolutely? More than that? NFW. 1200, let me repeat tweleve hundred points down is the next trend. 3 days, 3 weeks, 3 months? Answer, yes. Possibly as soon as a few days or possibly put off until June but certainly within that range. Stocks are now commanding prices 20%+ more than tw oweeks ago because.... ummmm... welll... no reason. I should back track on one bit. Some stocks are worth more because the government has intervened. More later.

tj and the bear said...

Is that extra 3% due to Mello-Roos? Out there??? Also, WTH is a "Land Fee"?

Went to the site and noticed the group of houses are surrounded by empty lots that'll probably be there a while. Nice.

Lost Cause said...

These are way below construction cost.