http://www.venturacountystar.com/vcs/mo/article/0,1375,VCS_167_5032952,00.html
You gotta love these. Buys in a ridgeline near a major freeway interchange about land zoned for major retail for over a dozen years and gets a shock when major retsail is built.
Excerpt:
"The view from their hilltop home is much different today than the one they paid extra for in 2002. It went from sweeping views of the countryside to neon signs, concrete walls and lighted parking lots."
"The Realtor told us they didn't know what was going to go down there. If we'd known, we probably would have looked around somewhere else,"
46 comments:
If you want to preserve the open space, buy it. If you can't afford that, don't think that you have really bought the "view". Views are more expensive than people realize.
Deserving Idiot!
Too bad. Next time buy in an area that is already developed.
crispy&cole
incessant is totally right. That's definitely one thing I've learned through housing research and being involved with local government. If/when I look to buy in the future, I'll be closely scrutinizing the area around. See who owns it, zoning, etc. Even then, no guarantees.
This is somewhat OT, Robert, however it arises from an earlier thread. As I proposed about a month ago, inventories appear to have peaked nationally and are heading down. You disputed my assertion and said the inventory numbers were "noise." I suggest you take a look around and admit I was ahead of the curve on this one. I will humbly accept your apology.
Jack,
A "about a month ago?" How about several months ago and both toals and trends continue to be off the scale compared to pervoius years. As stated those many months ago inventory normally goes way down this time of year. That inventory is only now going down a little from very high supplies is every bit a confirmation of exploding inventories as was the absolute rise of the past summer.
Just visited the Ben Jonestown blog and Housing Panic and the bitching and infighting is growing very intense among bubbleheads. I predict here and now that as housing inventories fall the bubble blogs will become very amusing arenas. All that holds the handful of gadflies together is an anticipated crash in the housing market. As that fails to occur the gadflies will turn on each other with even more intensity. And you, Bob, will be forced to rewrite history. Again.
Jack,
There'll always be something for the nattering nabobs of negativity to whine about. Just like there'' always be some thread of sunshine for the pollyannas to hang their hat upon. I'm only negative because the conditions warrant it. I'm pretty careful to log my views and predictions and I'm far from perfect, heck I barely rise above a monkey with a dart on some issues. That said, care to revise your "about a month ago?"
It was actually three months ago looking ahead one month, so I admit to being off by thirty days. I wouldn't call that a big deal. The fact remains houses are selling, builders are cutting back on construction and mortgage rates are falling. Employment remains steady and incomes actually have risen by 4% this year. I see a convergence next year which will define itself as a soft landing. I also predict a booming stock market as boomers invest as never before in equities. What other choice is there with real estate off the table? Gold? Don't make me laugh. Again.
Jack-
Some 70% of all loans in Ca were of the adjsutable rate variety. You stated rates are falling, this is not true. A large majority of the ARM's are tied to LIBOR which has risen from 1.02% to 5.32% and has stayed there for several months. The cheap money is gone.
Yes, the 10y treasury is down 50bps from the peak, however, a much smaller percentage of loans are of the 30/15 year variety.
70% of all CA loans for the past year or two are not going to dictate the future of the national economy. I don't mean this personally, but there is a high degree of paranoia and conspiracy phobia among bubble bloggers. It seems there is a very large "they" who are out to screw the few brave and wise souls who are the "we" on this blog and others. George Bush is to blame for the worlds problems and is fully responsible for the housing bubble, e-coli outbreaks in Uganda, the Korean nuclear (nuculer) bomb and global warming. It is pathetic and makes the blogs, despite all the "LOL"s, a humorless and predictable morass of nugatory significance. Cote works on the fringes of this hapless society with his exurban nonsense. But at least he has apparently decided the Ben Jonestown blog is not worth squat.
There are some who are paranoid and others, like me, who beleive that an asset class has clearly distanced itself from its underlying fundemenatal drivers.
This has occurred in SFH's. I own my home (well 60% of it) and used to own a SFH rental (sold for a nice profit).
Once assets prices get back to reality then it will be time to step back on the field of play. For me these blogs represent sentiment, once the masses all believe RE is dead, I will buy another rental that CF's. Until then I will wait on the sidelines with my fellow bubbleheads.
crispy&cole
I see your point but it is dangerous to use the bubble blogs as a measure of sentiment. Unless you poll welfare recipients before making your wine selection.
"It is dangerous to use the bubble blogs as a measure of sentiment unless you poll welfare recipients before making your wine selection."
That is the funniest bubblehead slap I've read in months.
JzMpr, High praise from the guy with the best bio on blogger.
Jack -
As expected, as conversation with you results in an insult.
crispy&cole
What is the source of your hatred for bubble bloggers? (Please don't answer if it will result in another cheap shot)
crispy&cole
CrispyEcoli,
As a hardcore Ben Jonesian Bubbleboy, you forfeit the right to insist on civility much less being taken seriously.
Watching you idiots act like clowns and then crying about being called one is entertainment for some of us.
surferx-
ecoli - that is actually pretty funny.
Obviously you can't rebut that bubble claim and therefore have to insult.
CrispyEcoli
Finally read your bio - now I actually feel bad for you.
Life is too short to be that pissed (expect at the REIC)!
crispy&cole
Ventura County offically went negative.
Ventura $540K $604K $584K -3.3%
crispyEcoli
I have no animosity towards bubble heads as they provide a daily dose of laughs. But now to get serious and ask the perennial philosophical question: How many bubble heads can jack off on the head of a pin?
Bakersfield Bubble:
Ventura is now part of the elite two club in Southern California joining the ranks of San Diego. This is only the peak of the bubble - we will be shaking off the excess speculation for years. I admit that I am a bubblehead when it comes to housing and my source of entertainment is making the rounds on housing blogs gathering information and slicing and dicing data. But I also realize that bubblehead and housingheads only make up a small fraction of the population. Most people go by what is stated in the mainstream media. The fact that the housing bubble is nearly non-existent, does cause me to pause.
I can appreciate the other side of the coin as well. Housing is a great investment in the long-term. The way I see it bubbleheads are bears and housingheads are bulls. Both make money in the long run. Bulls make money, bears make money, sheep get slaughtered. The fact that someone bought at the peak in San Diego only in November of last year is now under $42,000 is a big headline.
I tend to think this bubble will be larger than the tech bust because with tech, you actually have a product that provided a strong utility. The last five years have only seen inflation in land prices. You can do a simple research experiment if you like. Go on Zillow and see the price of land from 2000 to 2005. Where building material may have gone up 45 to 50 percent in that time land values have gone up nearly 300 to 400 percent depending on what area you are looking at.
That's a very astute point Doctor. Very astute. Pets.com is indeed "a product that provided a strong utility" in comparison to mere, useless, actual land.
Usually one must go to Ben's blog for such wisdom, but evidently Robbie's place here has now reached equal heights.
Let's face it Surfer X, on Ben's Jonestown plantation we are field bloggers and guys like CripsEcoli are house bloggers and always will be. In fact, I have heard Ben calls his field bloggers "bliggers." Might as well get used to it.
Surfer-X:
Or we can look at Intel and Microsoft. Just as easily we can use an extreme example such as the below:
http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=1year&zpid=21005458
2005 Property Tax $4,206
Assessed value bldgs: $114,240
Assessed value land: + $142,800
Total assessed value: = $257,040
Sale History
06/20/2006: $393,000
Since the replacement cost hasn’t increased that much in one year we can see that the land has increased over $100,000 since it was last bought in 2004. This is just one example of many. Now you can say that this area is the “Pets.com” of housing while Malibu and Newport Beach are the Intel and Microsoft. How is this off? Of course a house has usefulness. No one will debate this. But an increase of $100,000 in land value over two years in Compton? Maybe bringing up Pets.com was an apt comparison…
jack-
House "bliggers" - how long did you rack your brain think up that one?
CrispyEColi
It came to me in a dream, how else?
surfer x-
HARM is vouching for you over at the plantation - claiming you are a nice guy.
crispy&cole
Harm is just another smiling house bligger, Surfer X, don't be duped.
The NAACP called they have decided to revoke your membership.
crispy&cole
HARM loves to perform self digital-rectal massage while tromboning me as I go about my duties as a freelance OBGYN with his wife.
The good doctor here knows what I mean. He is also a fucking moron, or a butt licking nigger, if he prefers. Bligger, right?
Hey Jack, if you wanna engage in a bit more of a challenge, you may wanna join me over on calculatedrisk while I crack the whip on bliggers with a bit more bandwidth than the ecoli and the good doctor here. Be prepared to get banned so you should proxy up prior to the fun.
I'm fixin to load up right now and it usually takes me a couple hours to reach equilibrium. When the horizon calms down I'll see you there.
I should admit, though, that some bloggers pay for my input. That, I guess, makes me just a bigilo. For the Mopper I work for free.
Don't worry, I'm here lurking on my own blog. When you guys run down I've got some major Prop 13 angst qued up.
I love prop. 13. Bubbleheads are a bunch of whiny little jealous white boys when it comes to Jarvis-Gann. I'd love to see their mothers in New Jersey get thrown on the street because they can't pay the taxes. Maybe get fucking cancer too while they're at it.
You were right, SX, I've been banned from calculated risk. Took about ten seconds. Housing panic also banned me. Im no longer just a bligger, my own wife is now calling me a bligamist.
Told you.
Go here:
http://tools.rosinstrument.com/cgi-proxy.htm
Open calculatedrisk on a separate page.
Put your cursor on the haloscan link you want to post in and RIGHT click on it.
Click "Copy Shortcut"
Paste on the CGI proxy box. You are now proxied up and ready to post away. The old ass-licking, limp dicked, blog pisser can delete your posts but he can't stop you from posting.
Oh Jack, Jack, Jack. How many clues does it take? Mssrs X and the others are Legends of the Pustule. Their least comments are treated like shots of top shelf Tequila. Blogs compete for their wisdom. What is it? Are they rarified altitude type smart, consumate hosts, witty, possesed of dry and twisted humor unrestrained by convention mores or normally sized egos? Well yes but that's not the point, they add to a conversation. Even when they are wrong (meaning when they disagree with me).
Jack, when you come to the table you gotta bring something even just a dill dip, you can't just take and take and criticize the grill chef.
Oh, and a programming note. My Prop 13 is out and I'm going postal on transit and New York City instead.
No one gives a fuck about transit or NYC you catshit eating old puss gut.
But hey, post away it's your blog. Perhaps the smell of your colostomy bag and useless organ will attract a stray dingo or two for you to amuse yourself with.
Jack, keep posting on CR. Let that trembling old woman delete your posts. Make him fucking do it. All the time. You cannot be stopped from posting if you proxy the fuck up like I showed you, or many other ways. The net is FULL of free proxies.
My post get deleted all the time, he tries to ban me at the ip level one proxy at a time, but the fucker can't touch a dynamic CGI proxy port that changes with every log on.
Shakin the bush, boss
Note to Surfer X, Can you believe Mr. Cote? "Bring something to the table" he says. His typical thread nets five posts. This here thread is at 45 and counting. I bring him a new fucking word never before uttered, I foment a new class struggle which will bring down the digital mc mansions of Jones and his brown shirts. Bring something to the table? I have spluged a pearl necklace around his flacid neck and he doesn't know it. Bwahahahahah
Jack, I was talking about the blogs where you've been banned. Banned here? Maybe that's because I see some value. The places where you've been banned don't have the same criteria and nobody likes to be called a brown shirt.
Oh and don't call him Surfer X, this is a lowercase imposter. Didn't you know?
"Realtor Fraud"
Sadly, overwhemling percent of those in middle-person sales, e.g, used cars, stock brokers, etc., end up commiting fraud in order to compete. I call call them Intellectual Whores -- they prostitute their minds.
Jas Jain
Actually, construction materials did deflate quite a bit the last couple years and look like they will deflate some more when US-Canada lumber deal are solidified.
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