No, not the Sith Lords. The phantom inventory. As it stands now much of the new home inventory is not in the MLS, neither are cancelled orders nor that percentage of homes failing forward out of escrow. Add to this the houses in preforclosure and/or tax lien that won't get out and there's waaay too many houses for the current or foreseeable market. Use this to vent on the Snowflake if you must.
50 comments:
fine Rob, SECOND!
as for inventory it should prove interesting to watch what happens this spring. From personal experience 4 different houses were on sale on my street last year, 1 sold, 1 pulled the listing (stayed put) and 2 continue so sit, haven't lowered their prices. I have a feeling they and other will try to sell again...
...oh yeah I tried to sell in the summer of 2005 but held off. D'oh!
From lil' Casey's last post...
The received the short sale offer at 240 but its too low because there are about 30 grand of costs: agent commissions, closing fees and buyers want some cash for repairs.
Wow, another cash-back scam in the works. Alert the authorities!
..The authorities just don't seem to care.
GameOver; Fine, but you are the FIRST SECOND and that's all good.
Yeah, those were two the "phantom inventory" items I deliberately did not mention. We need special phrases for these types. Suggestions?
Here in Sacramento, the builders put quite a bit of their finished inventory in the MLS. Which seems to be increasing daily. We're definitely in a down market for another year or two. Wish it wasn't so. Or that I lived in SLC where the housing market doesn't slow down (according to a friend of KC).
I'm in the Panhandle of Florida and official estimates show about eight months of inventory on single family homes. I think the real number is over a year's worth.
A typical builder may have had a 100 house subdivision presold, 75% to investors. Only 25 houses went to closing (typical) so the builder was left with 75 finished houses. He puts 15 of them on the MLS. Just enough to show his various floorplans. He doesn't want to show how much he actually has available as he's afraid that will put further pressure on his pricing.
It's amazing to hear folks(mainly Realtors) say that we have hit bottom. I hope I'm wrong but I gotta believe it's going to take another 20% to get many buyers back in. It's just so much cheaper to rent.
Why buy a house for $275k when you can rent it for $1300? The fundamentals are way off.
See Rob, no Brazilian comments but I still am curious.
"We need special phrases for these types. Suggestions?"
White elephants?
If you haters were smart, you'd be buying in Utah. It's immune from any type of bubble. Just read my award winning blog if you need further proof.
Nigel
no Brazilian comments but I still am curious.
They either tickle or itch. Or both. [buries head but doesn't say where] We aviation types refer to it as a landing strip.
Seriously, yes you see the real inventory. Any kind of panic (which I don't see yet) and maybe even more. While I believe there is a bottom the data don't confirm that. Anyone who claims to be able to SEE a bottom is lying and to claim we are at a bottom is criminal. 8-11 years of exponential price increases corrected by 8 months of soft sales and single digit declines? NFW.
"8-11 years of exponential price increases corrected by 8 months of soft sales and single digit declines? NFW."
That sums it up.
They're quite pleasant until they start to grow back. They require some maintenance.
Can somebody photoshop a wheatgrass shot into that illustration?
Use this to vent on the Snowflake if you must.
I must!
@Brooklynite
I am going to politely opt out of that one.
LOL @ Brook
@All:
I don't buy that we're at the bottom of any housing crunch. The subprime foreclosure numbers put pricing pressure on even A-class borrowers. They move as well. The Casey-type foreclosures are going to exert a massive downward pressure on prices that will squeeze the range in which homebuilders can price things. They'll maintain profitability through attrition, lay-offs, and through other creative schemes. The homebuilders aren't really going to be the ones in trouble, so their stock prices won't be indicative of the true chaos.
Second, not all the loans have expired. In 2004 and 2005, people were getting 2/28s and 5/1 ARMs. The 2/28s might be out of the picture, but a lot of people in 5/1s aren't feeling the squeeze yet. The non-fixed rate mortgages were primarily sub-prime.
A good chunk of housing investment wasn't for buying places to live either. If the numbers don't improve in '08 and '09 like these idiotic NAR economists say, the people who bought thinking this was the bottom and the people who're stuck in 5/1s will start putting downward pressure. Interest rates will likely go up, so it should all snowball in a few years.
Karma is real. Even if Casey doesn't get prosecuted now, the market and creditors will get him anyway. I don't understand how people think excess liquidity pumped into the system will continue to happen and how appreciation will continue.
I know guys who have heavy 2-4 mil projects and they're break even or are starting to show losses on paper based on future forecasts of flat-lined growth. My guess is we'll be back to modest 3-6% year over year growth around 2012-2014.
"My guess is we'll be back to modest 3-6% year over year growth around 2012-2014."
Just come invest in Utah. Your investment will increase 5x by then.
See my award winning blog for details.
Nigel
From the
Facing Foreclosure Story on CBS San Francisco Thread
Casey Advertises:
If you are facing foreclosure: feel free to email me and I’ll try to help with advice and/or referrals, although I may be slow to respond because of the volume of email I get every day.
So, I reckon KC and Nigel are sussing out homes facing forclosure vis IAFF as the advertising end, then their goal is to buy on the short.
KC did say 'they' were after the contacts that he brings to the sweet deals. The short sale money is 'behind the curtin'. That is my take.
iw
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USED TO BE SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLIK!
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HERE WE FIND CHOCOLATE FACE HAS HOUSE, WE WANT HOUSE!
PEOPLE SAY MONEY IS CHEAPHERE, SO I GO TO THE BANK, BANKS ASKS TOO MUCH INFORMATIONS LIKE KGB, I CALL COUNTRY WIDE, I TELL THEM I NEEDS THE MONEY TO BUY HOUSE I WANT TO RENT IT TO CHOCOLATE FACE!
THEY ASK HOW MUCH I MAKE IN MONEY FROM JOB, I TELL THEM I MAKES THE BIG MONEY, THEY GIVES THE MONEY AND NOW I BUY 4 HOUSES!
AMERICA IS GREAT!
IF I CANNOT PAY LOAN I GO BACK TO RUSSIA, NOW THEY HAVE BIG STORES AND EVEN SELL MERCEDES BENZ NOW,
I PAY POLICE IN RUSSIA AND I NO EXTRADITION
I LOVES AMERICA!
THANK YOU!
Looks like despite your best efforts, Mr. Nick found a job.
::::Casey Drama Withdrawal Syndrome -- how dull everything is around here::::
They just opened a Macaroni Grill near a mall over here in the PDX area. I'll be sure to avoid it like the plague. There's some weird new place next to it called the 'Claim Jumper'.
Both badly named restaurants. Not exactly indicative of good food; one invokes the image of macaroni pasta falling through the grill, and the other sounds like a boardgame.
What is it with these cheesy chain restaurants?
From Nigel's site. Seems he riped you Rob Dawg (after responding to what appears to be a "hater"):
"Maybe he put some money into the houses and made a payment or two, but he had NO INCOME."
How do you know this? The statements of a one-sided blog?
That's the problem with you people. You make all these assumptions and statements based on very little information and sometimes very little intelligence.
I would never feel comfortable criticizing someone publically unless I knew the full story. I suppose the cloak of anonymity makes it easier for you since there are no repurcussions for you personally.
If EN is one sided, what does that make Nigel's crap blog?
So now we know the guy calling out the posters here IS indeed Nigel. Funny how he is so much more intelligent than Rob, Steph, Dolph, Jim Bob, Legion, R-Boy, Homey and Ogg.
I'd take y'all's opinions over anything that Nigel guy talks about. Rob's views on urban planning issues are interesting enough even if this blog wasn't focused on Casey anymore.
The only dummy I see is Nigel.
Look everybody...I'm wearing a cloak of anonymity! Weeeeeee...........
Anonymous said...
If EN is one sided, what does that make Nigel's crap blog?
Excuse me, sir, but that's AWARD-WINNING crap blog to you, thankyouverymuch!
Mr. Nick's new career move with a Fortune XXX company is mowing their grass and emptying the trash. Maybe Nigel can use a protoge.....Mr. Nick says he swallows.
Pardon the non sequitor, but as requested on a previous posting, I had an original thought. Work with me here...
Snowflake finally gets indicted and arrested. There's a bail hearing. Snowflake gets out on bond. Snowflake stiffs the bailbondsman/woman.
Much hilarity ensues.
RULE: One cannot disparage someone's intelligence while spelling publicly as publically and repercussions as repurcussions.
It's just not done.
You all are overlooking a very important point: Nigel, and only Nigel has been able to convince Casey to get a job.
Nobody else has been able to 'reach' Casey, and finally convince him to get a job. This is a remarkable achievement. No wonder he has an award-winning 'Blog.
And I know that Casey is going to get a job. Any minute now. Just as soon as he's finished with that complicated 'server migration.'
Any minute now.
LOL, that was taken from Nigel's posted response on his blog.
He enjoys the high horse but is no more smarter than anybody else. I don't attack spelling because it comes off as having no rebuttal to a point. In his case, he has no point so it's all good!
Casey will never get a job. EVER.
Nigel is foolish to think he will. But I guess saying that allows Nigel a reason to look more distanced from Casey than he really is.
The only dummy I see is Nigel.
*************
Nigel's Real Estate Clerk Blogger Buddie Greg Swan Dive at Bloodhound ain't the sharpest Real Estate Tool.
Attacking Nigel for his spelling is like kicking a cripple out of a wheelchair. Maybe good for a giggle, but ultimately, there's no sport in it.
Oh... and I just posted this over on Nigel's 'Blog. Let's see if he has the guts to post it, etc:
There are a lot worse people doing a lot worse things? You, Nigel are sympathetic to Casey's situation? Man, that wheat-grass shot must have messed with your head too!
Okay... let's assume that 'most of the money went for repairs and mortgage payments.' Good for Casey!
You're kinda overlooking the big picture here. Casey BORROWED money and GAMBLED with it. He gambled that he could see an inherent value in the properties, and that even with massive cash-back at closing, he gambled that he could sell all of the properties for a profit.
And he made that gamble 7 times, in 4 different states... and engineered the paperwork and closing times so the lenders wouldn't see his whole credit picture.
To get those loans, he lied on all of the mortgage applications. He lied about being employed. He lied about his intent to live in all of the properties. That was the only way he could qualify... and he knew it.
When all the dollars hit the floor, the banks/lenders are going to be out about a HALF-MILLION DOLLARS. Their loss is because Casey deliberately gamed the system, with the intent to make a profit.
Frankly, I don't see how you can be a mortgage broker with any kind of integrity if you feel 'sympathy' for this 24-year old White Collar Criminal.
I encourage your comments and remarks, etc.
Now remember, we'd all "Kill and Die" to get a chance to convince Casey to get a job according to Saint Nigel.
He beat us all to it. My life will never be fulfilled now.
LOL...
Just because Nigel says that Casey has agreed to get a job -- that is not the same thing as actually getting one. it's not even close.
Although in Casey's mind, thinking that he will get a job might be the same thing as actually having a job.... who knows.
Casey will get a job with the same level of tenacity he put into the early riser program, the commitment to pay back every dirty penny, the vow to be 100% honest, and the "goal" of eating vegan.
Don't trip, people. He'll get to it... eventually. You buncha freaken haters.
Ok, let's talk about this -- who is Homey?
I do not think he's a cop, but rather works within the RE industry. Perhaps at a title company or mortgage firm, someplace where he's familiar already with title serches, etc.
Willing to discus this? Or does Homey scare ya's too much?
Homey seems my secret friend. I love him.
And I highly doubt he gives a shit about localized real estate crap.
snowflake is busy re-hosting on the campidiot server!
PMSPMS
This is what comes up for IAFF right now:
http://www.zewg.com/error.html
YO YO YO ITS HOMEY TIME!
Wassup Rob Dawg!
Homey been ways too buzy da pass 2 weeks- dunn bin tyed up in cawt- uh DUI mansluaghter kase.
I see dat Casey kat found himself uh new partner- sucka- ta share uh jail cell wiff. Mo bout dat in a minute.
I see dat ya ain't jivin' bout Chris any mo', WHY'S THAT?
Hey Casey kat-how wuz yo' trip ta Utah wiff Gary? (OOPS!). Ya knowz, that hard money guy? I guess peeps ain't supposed ta know his name, address, phone number, or location of his properties...muh ma fuckin bad.
Now dat ya gots 3 foreclosures an' looking at uh 4th, what iz yo' plan when they arrest you? You know dat Galina has one. FO SHO.
How be yo' taxes coming? How come ya aren;t jivin' about dis here? I know why. Because ya iz fucked.
You gots some BIG balls ta jet on TV an' say dat dere iz nahh criminal charges on you- ya gots nahh clue snowflake. They don' let da criminal know until dey arrest ya. Call da Sacramento DA'soffice ta find out.
Casey Kat, I dunn told ya dat I be not going ta be doin' yo' werk any mo' fo' ya. I be not going ta be tipping ya off anymo' so ya can try an' cover yo' ass. Trust me punk, I be on yo' ass, just not in da open. Tell yo buddy Nigel he needs ta be very careful about his actions- sheeit like accessory befo an' afta da fact.
You an yo criminal buddies keep comin here an' runnin yo mouth bout how I gots nuthin on ya. Yeah FO SHO, I gots NUTHIN. You be 100% right on dat snowflake.
Rob Dawg, I aint gonna be postin as much on Casey kat. You being uh smart guy an such kin knowz da 411 on dat.
Love,
Homey
PS. Jus' like Orenthawl James.
We love ya Homey, but....
Wy hasn't our little snowflake been arrested yet?
What are the authorities waiting for? Does he have to pull of yet another scam? Hasn't snowflake done enough damage already?
It makes me sick seeing him still gallnting around free.
So that is the Homey everyone was lookin for.
Well, he's the man fo sure.
It IS possible to make money in real estate, but it's a LOT of work. A friend of mine (who makes more than I do, and for full disclosure, is my landlord and was my fried before he bought my building) has done quite well at it. However, he knows what the fuck he is doing. He buys houses close to home, rents some, sells some. He does most of his own work. The ones he keeps are usually in a national historic district (they really don't make any more of those houses) and the houses he sells are picked carefully. He also started out slow, with family backing. It's unfair to say that "flippers" are the problem, or to say that Casey is a flipper. Casey is a GAMBLER who watched too many fucking infomercials. How can you be a flipper without a pickup truck? How can you be a flipper without a garage full of tools, cabinets, toilets, paint, etc? Sorry Rob, first time poster, but this finally annoyed me. I bet snowflake doesn't even own a circular saw.
Speaking of circular saws...
Please Homey, PLEASE take down Nigel. I have a bad feeling about that cat.
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