Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Blog O' Note
One of the places I watch for inside news: American Banker and some cheesecake:
It looks like the American Banker site wants a login. I haven't seen any details on the Citibank branch network pullback. Have they published a closings list yet?
My neighborhood just dropped in price a little last night. I live in Oakland (CA), but what is generally thought of as a nice part of it. I turned on the news last night and the lead off with a story about a triple shooting. I'm thinking "Great... nowhere near me, but we all get the "Oaktown" label".
Then they show a map of where it is - and I'm thinking "Oh, there's my house...".
It's around a corner and down a small cliff, but as the crow flies, it's less than 100 yards from my place.
Homeowners who 'strategically default' on loans a growing problem
Research using a massive sample of 24 million individual credit files has found that homeowners with high scores when they apply for a loan are 50% more likely to "strategically default" -- abruptly and intentionally pull the plug and abandon the mortgage -- compared with lower-scoring borrowers.
Among researchers' findings are these eye-openers:
The number of strategic defaults is far beyond most industry estimates -- 588,000 nationwide during 2008, more than double the total in 2007. They represented 18% of all serious delinquencies that extended for more than 60 days in last year's fourth quarter.
Strategic defaulters often go straight from perfect payment histories to no mortgage payments at all. This is in stark contrast with most financially distressed borrowers, who try to keep paying on their mortgage even after they've fallen behind on other accounts.
Strategic defaults are heavily concentrated in negative-equity markets where home values zoomed during the boom and have cratered since 2006. In California last year, the number of strategic defaults was 68 times higher than it was in 2005. In Florida it was 46 times higher. In most other parts of the country, defaults were about nine times higher in 2008 than in 2005.
Two-thirds of strategic defaulters have only one mortgage -- the one they're walking away from on their primary homes. Individuals who have mortgages on multiple houses also have a higher likelihood of strategic default, but researchers believe that many of these walkaways are from investment properties or second homes.
JVJ, your byline seems misleading. The article said that while sales are down YOY, they are not down as much as the prior month. This suggests to me that they are likely increasing sequentially.
I have a neighbor (using the term loosely) who has a harley with straight pipes. Bastard insists on "warming it up" for 5-10 minutes each time just so that he (or she - I don't know, with the helmet & horrendously wide ass it's hard to tell) can roar past at full throttle. At 3am in the morning.
It's almost dark, and the offending machine is parked outside and the blinds are closed.
Damn! The motherless/fatherless child moved the devil-machine into it's garage. I'm off on my bike to the local gas station to purchase a gallon of fuel obstensively for the lawn-mower.
On another topic... from the "Why is something so obvious considered 'news'?" Department:
President of the Dallas Fed: "Boomers are Selfish" Holding his own generation at fault, Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher told a gathering of Texas Christian University alumni this morning at Northwood Country Club in Dallas that the Baby Boomers are “one of the most selfish generations. We wasted our children’s future.” He said it is disgraceful that the Boomers allowed Medicare and Social Security’s unfunded future obligations to reach their present level — about $104 trillion.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell last week despite the lowest loan rates in four months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, in another sign that housing will likely recover slowly from its three-year plunge.
Home loan applications fell a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in the September 25 week, driven down by a 6.2 percent drop in demand for purchase loans and a 0.8 percent decline in refinancing requests.
Borrowing costs inched closer to record lows, with average 30-year rates dipping 0.03 percentage point to 4.94 percent.
The 30-year rates were the lowest since the week ended May 22, at 4.81 percent, after hitting an all-time low of 4.61 percent in March, according to the industry group. A year ago, before intensive government interventions, 30-year rates averaged 6.33 percent.
Mortgage is the most important calculative method of doing some of economic behaviour of a nation. It enriches the usage of mortgage calculator how much can i afford to get back the assistance by the level to buy from bank.
32 comments:
First to comment on the hottie !
It looks like the American Banker site wants a login. I haven't seen any details on the Citibank branch network pullback. Have they published a closings list yet?
Nice cheesecake.
My neighborhood just dropped in price a little last night. I live in Oakland (CA), but what is generally thought of as a nice part of it. I turned on the news last night and the lead off with a story about a triple shooting. I'm thinking "Great... nowhere near me, but we all get the "Oaktown" label".
Then they show a map of where it is - and I'm thinking "Oh, there's my house...".
It's around a corner and down a small cliff, but as the crow flies, it's less than 100 yards from my place.
Greetings Rob,
I sent you an email the other day and now I'm wondering if (once again) I sent it to the wrong address. You might want to read it.
Northern Renter
Cheesecake or Camel Toe?
Homeowners who 'strategically default' on loans a growing problem
Research using a massive sample of 24 million individual credit files has found that homeowners with high scores when they apply for a loan are 50% more likely to "strategically default" -- abruptly and intentionally pull the plug and abandon the mortgage -- compared with lower-scoring borrowers.
Among researchers' findings are these eye-openers:
The number of strategic defaults is far beyond most industry estimates -- 588,000 nationwide during 2008, more than double the total in 2007. They represented 18% of all serious delinquencies that extended for more than 60 days in last year's fourth quarter.
Strategic defaulters often go straight from perfect payment histories to no mortgage payments at all. This is in stark contrast with most financially distressed borrowers, who try to keep paying on their mortgage even after they've fallen behind on other accounts.
Strategic defaults are heavily concentrated in negative-equity markets where home values zoomed during the boom and have cratered since 2006. In California last year, the number of strategic defaults was 68 times higher than it was in 2005. In Florida it was 46 times higher. In most other parts of the country, defaults were about nine times higher in 2008 than in 2005.
Two-thirds of strategic defaulters have only one mortgage -- the one they're walking away from on their primary homes. Individuals who have mortgages on multiple houses also have a higher likelihood of strategic default, but researchers believe that many of these walkaways are from investment properties or second homes.
http://tinyurl.com/m5dtph
For Lou:
The "Chav' Pack"
I LOVE Cheesecake! I wish I could eat it everyday... ;)
PS: I have a new post on my blog. It has a new important update about my life.
Rob,
You got a couple call-outs on the last fraudcast. I think they want you to call in.
That chick's a banker? Was she this month's centerfold in American Banker?
SINCE OUR HOST IS AWOL THIS WEEKEND, I'M INSTITUTING A TAKEOVER
[as John McLaughlin:]
Japanese Auto Makers are paring back production, while GM is launching its annual Fall Truck Promition Program.
September sales will be announced this Thursday.
QUESTION:
HOW FAR WILL NEW AUTO SALES FALL?
JVJ, your byline seems misleading. The article said that while sales are down YOY, they are not down as much as the prior month. This suggests to me that they are likely increasing sequentially.
But last month (August) was skewed, because of Cash for Clunkers. so sales in September will probably drop
I have a neighbor (using the term loosely) who has a harley with straight pipes. Bastard insists on "warming it up" for 5-10 minutes each time just so that he (or she - I don't know, with the helmet & horrendously wide ass it's hard to tell) can roar past at full throttle.
At 3am in the morning.
It's almost dark, and the offending machine is parked outside and the blinds are closed.
Please advise.
Potatos.
Nasty bastards might even stuff dried grass and then two potatos.
I'm inclined to piss on it. Potatoes are not all that cheap.
Damn! The motherless/fatherless child moved the devil-machine into it's garage. I'm off on my bike to the local gas station to purchase a gallon of fuel obstensively for the lawn-mower.
Perhaps.
Maybe you can pay a Hell's Angel or Bandito to steal the thing. They won't talk either.
Sorry, but I think Hulk Hogan has the Hell's Angels on busy on assignment.
On another topic... from the "Why is something so obvious considered 'news'?" Department:
President of the Dallas Fed: "Boomers are Selfish"
Holding his own generation at fault, Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher told a gathering of Texas Christian University alumni this morning at Northwood Country Club in Dallas that the Baby Boomers are “one of the most selfish generations. We wasted our children’s future.” He said it is disgraceful that the Boomers allowed Medicare and Social Security’s unfunded future obligations to reach their present level — about $104 trillion.
Ya think?
Anti-Boomer rhetoric!!
Thanks ;-)
Mortgage demand falls despite lower rates
By Lynn Adler
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell last week despite the lowest loan rates in four months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, in another sign that housing will likely recover slowly from its three-year plunge.
Home loan applications fell a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in the September 25 week, driven down by a 6.2 percent drop in demand for purchase loans and a 0.8 percent decline in refinancing requests.
Borrowing costs inched closer to record lows, with average 30-year rates dipping 0.03 percentage point to 4.94 percent.
The 30-year rates were the lowest since the week ended May 22, at 4.81 percent, after hitting an all-time low of 4.61 percent in March, according to the industry group. A year ago, before intensive government interventions, 30-year rates averaged 6.33 percent.
[...]
Big Bird has something to say.
No new post in a week and a half? Has Rob run off to live on Casey's Island?
Rob, I hope none of your friends were hurt... ;-)
Rob, any thoughts on the California tax proposal?
Felt it here in Fresno.
God's way of saying the Dawg better get a new post up. Soon.
You can't feel a 2.7. How can you say that? I think we are due for a big one. Today is perfect earthquake weather.
Oops - picked the wrong event. Meant the 4.7.
Did your cabin get burned in the asset disposition event that took three structures so far in Wrightwood?
Wagga -- yup, 4.7 can really feel that! Any linkage to recent activity on the Pacific Rim?
Check out the WhitneyPortalStore
Mortgage is the most important calculative method of doing some of economic behaviour of a nation. It enriches the usage of mortgage calculator how much can i afford to get back the assistance by the level to buy from bank.
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