Friday, October 19, 2012

Demand Gap

Business Insider isn't always the best place to look for insight but this time they are on to something.

New housing starts just spiked but what about demand?

Here is the graph they reproduced for completions v sales.

Some places talk about a distressing gap.  The demand gap seems to me to far more important.

Even more "distressing" is the way home builders actually record completions.  For various reasons the norm is to keep nearly completed houses "on the pinks."  That means essentially completed pending final inspection and details.  Nothing sinister just standard business practice.  That means however that there is likely a large shadow inventory of almost completed housing just waiting for buyers to show up.

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