Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Sore Thumb Sticks out in New Home Sales

Little noticed in the 26, Nov '14 Census Bureau release of New Home Sales is an interesting change in month over month numbers.  It's a shame there isn't a decent econ blog out there to call attention to this stuff.  

September '14 Median Sales price $261,700
September '14 Average Sales price $314,200

October '14 Median Sales price $305,000
October '14 Average Sales price $401,100

Am I the only one who thinks a 20% jump in the median price is unusual?

Latest New Sales release.  PDF updated monthly.  


Stagflationary Mark said...

I'm sure there is a perfectly rational explanation.

"OMG! The bottom just fell out of the bottom of the market!"

Please excuse my outburst. I just had a subprime September 2006 to March 2007 flashback. That's all. I'm sure there's nothing to worry about.

Rob Dawg said...

That parallels what I said the other day to Jim the Realtor:

Looking for an early prediction? 2015 seems to be shaping up for 8-10% increases but not because of price appreciation but market drift toward higher priced housing that has appreciated but hasn’t transacted as a portion of total sales. More of the houses that transact will be the more expensive lower turnover properties. THere will also be leftover major renovations that took long enough that they might sneak past the filters meant to catch flips.


Selling houses to the poors is not a high margin business. The good thing is you get to keep selling the same house over and over to different poors. That's fine for resale but new housing? "Margin baby."

[I think I stole that from someone.]

Stagflationary Mark said...

[Prosperity, baby. That's what I'm talking about! ;)]

Stagflationary Mark said...

Your post inspired me.

Housing: A Hair of the Dog That Bit Us