The basal demand for SFRs is huge yet the market is severely biased towards rentals. From the latest MONTHLY NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, MARCH 2018 census report.Mar 2018 from Feb 2018
Total 2.5%
1 unit ‐5.5%
2-4 units ‐12.8%
5+ units 22.9%
Report here.
80 comments:
I've seen clients wanting to build single family residential neighborhoods entirely for rental. 1 landlord for the whole neighborhood.
Bailey Acres versus Potters Fields.
Bailey Park. Pardon the brain stutter.
As an Evil landlord I am in it for the money! LOL! As the mortgage free for all continues to drive prices, rents become the canary in the coal mine. I only wish rents moved up at the same rate tax valuations do here. =:0
Why can't they build a bunch of smallish single family houses at smaller prices?
Row houses even?
Good Morning!
The problem is all the inflated cost from government permits, fees, etc. Add in the bloated land prices you have what you have. When the market is tapped out of buyers the secondary building is condos and rentals.
Can you appeal the tax valuations?
Small condos?
LBD is right about the huge costs of shepherding a project thru the permitting process in a city. Even if you know what you are doing, it can take a couple years from the time you decided to develop to the time you are moving earth. It's much easier to permit in the unincorporated areas, but they are farther out of the city and have problems getting utilities and infrastructure so your developments need to be big tracts of land that make it worth running utilities out there. If it's infill in the city limits there's probably something wrong with the property that makes it hard to build on. If it were easy, someone would have done it already. I love hearing a politician say we need affordable housing and we need increased regulation in the same breath.
Appeal tax valuations? LOL! Here if you manage to get a minor correction on rental property they reaccess it every year and in a couple of years it is right back up there. Funny my personal home doesn't get hit every year and seems reasonable. Local government is a very hungry leach mainly for their bloated dysfunctional schools here.
Buyers may want small, detached homes.
But, builders want to make profits. There's just not enough margin on starter homes - and too much risk of overruns.
So, the builders only want to build multi-units (higher margins, less risk). In NC, the "solution" to that is "mobile homes". Houses that are affordable, but that DE-preciate over time instead of being treated as magical money making machines.
I can only imagine earthquake concerns significantly change manufactured home regulations in CA.
Some parts of the country must still allow building on a couple of cement blocks for a foundation. Wonder why they blow away in a tornado? Saw one on the tube the other night. Crazy.
Pretty much the entire South allows mobile homes (which, as you note, tend to get REAL mobile in Tornadoes).
On the plus side, people in mobile homes tend to be smart enough not to STAY in their mobile homes during Tornadoes, so very few lives are lost by tornadoes hitting trailers.
But, it does offer an opportunity for people with lower incomes to buy instead of being forced to rent until death. However, many mobile home parks are set up as rental units, too. So, many layers to the onion of affordable housing.
When we first started dating, my eventual ex-wife was renting a trailer in a trailer park -- and I was actually staying over the night the next door neighbors had a fight, a gun shot rang out - and a bullet went through the side of her trailer and we found the spent slug in the bathtub the next morning.
She moved ... after the police told us she had landed in the most crime ridden of the areas trailer parks. But, she moved to another trailer park, because it was all she could afford at the time.
I used to be part owner of a mobile home park. Here they have to be anchored in to the ground. You are correct you don't want to be in one in a tornado. The problem is they are generally directed to low income buyers who honestly can't financially maintain them. There is nothing wrong with them except the stigma that comes with any low income neighborhood. Same as Motor homes depreciate no matter how much you spend and maintain them. The illusions that stick built homes have some magic power to go up in price is a sham sold to the public fueled by the government and Banksters. In the old days people paid off their homes and had money in their pockets for retirement. Now days it is a slot machine of refi or sell and start over with a bigger McMansion. We wonder why Boomers have a very large amount who can not retire. Shakes Head.
LDB,
I am right there with you in regards to the insanity of the 5-year housing trade-up culture. I bought one house (okay, townhouse). Nothing special - but I'm going to pay it off a bit before retirement, and have miniscule living expenses when I exit the Rat Race. If I ever sell, it will likely be to move far enough out of the city, where I can buy something as big for half the price and pocket the rest and still have no mortgage or rent to pay.
My first floor is cb brick 2nd cedar,
roof new. Paid for, big lot. Plan to spend a lot on redecorating but could just do maintenance for much less. Then, it can rot.
Puerto Rico's entire electrical grid is down now.
This will be the last straw.
Well, I like Puerto Ricans and they are legal!!
Puerto Rico should have spent their money a bit more wisely. Hey it's America Party on and the government will bail us out!
Launch soon. Looking for planets.
Big news in Hooterville here. The mall here as predicted is loosing the Herbergers in the Bon Ton BK. The mall now only has a few small franchise businesses and independents. How long till they turn the lights out? The whiners blame Amazon but really WalMart was here long before Amazon. Typical small town Kleptocrats pissed seed money away and never did what it takes to build the middle class. Splitting the same dollar ends up with a lot of losers. The recession here keeps on growing.
Malls, I'm sorry to say. Are toast. Where will the teenagers go? The should have invested in education. I forget where you are, but. Improving schools at all levels is a very good thing. Add a bunch of 2 year schools which train you to do something. There used to be something called shop in high school. Found a great new university and shame Warren Buffet to be paying for it. Any resources there to exploit?
Or, you can gather some right thinking people and found the bull moose party with its headquarters there. I would love to be a moosette!
We have space, tourism, fruit groves and cattle. Private companies are fighting over the best launch pads. Then there are Old people to house. The county is bribing new smallish businesses here. Some new subdivisions are being built.
Soon we'll have a bunch of Puerto Ricans to contribute.
And the unemployment rate is running between 3.6 and 3.8. (With an extra point for drop outs) The restaurants are doing fine. I see fewer bums.
The glaciers will not reach here,nor will the detritus of Yellowstone's explosion, if any.
Anybody live on that fault which is crossed by a sports stadium? Hayward or something?
I'm in central Nebraska. Comments about Buffet are don't ask he will not fund anything.
We have a community college for trades and college degrees. Problem is they pissed a lot of money away on tourism that only produces low paying jobs. Unless your connected then there is little chance of getting a good paying job here except the rail road and the hospital, which the hospital uses a lot of part time jobs. They are clueless to building the middle class but love government grants. Lot of missing money and the people are clueless as to what happens. Same old thing if it doesn't specifically effect them then there is no problem. Isn't America great?
Tourism? In Nebraska? Here they're using tourist money for sewers, which is ok with me as they are needed. People have already heard of Florida. Why would I go to Nebraska except to visit you?
They think they have special attractions. We do have the worlds largest classification rail yard in the country but honestly only train buffs care, Not the average person. Then they think the first rodeo was held here and Wild Bill Cody lived here and just about everywhere else in the west. Really it's not a bad place for me but other wise it is an interstate truck stop/rail road town. Things are only done for the chosen ones to fleece money out of or fund their motels gas and convenience stores. I never thought I would end up here but the lack of people is great. Nebraska's best attraction. LOL!
They could invite the descendants of the Indians they kicked out just before the civil war. The could build some "authentic" villages.
Good Morning!
I don't think they are interested nor are the younger folks. Besides they have casinos now. Problem is every spot on the interstate has some history like 35MPH east in Gothenburg is a pony express station. The city here has no theme no master building plan, zoning laws almost don't exist so their friends can manipulate what happens. Just not enough in one place to work with. IMO
My favorite employment stat that nobody knows about was updated this morning. As part of the First Time Jobless Claims report, they actually compute a "Covered Unemployment Rate", which is the number of people getting benefits (unemployed), divided by ... the total number of people covered by unemployment insurance. At the bottom of the FTC report, they always include:
"Most recent week used covered employment of 141,433,196 as denominator."
The number changes quarterly. It just changed with this report.
Of course, nobody pays attention to the "Insured Unemployment Rate", which is the number getting payouts divided by the number of contributors. (It is currently 1.3%).
What I love about this number is:
It is a countable - not a ratio.
Not done by survey
No Seasonal adjustment factors
NOT in the headlines, (so zero reason to believe it is manipulated or 'tainted' by political machinations).
NOT adjusted by population estimates or other statistical massaging.
Historical data is NOT updated.
One can also compare this number to say, the BLS total employed number (based on survey), and compute the number of employed people NOT covered by UI, (current BLS total employed = 155,178,000 ... so, about 14 million NOT covered by UI.
The one downside is that the number is only updated quarterly. (Though this also removes most of the noise from "rushing" to get the report out before the data is in.)
The delta between quarters shows the 3 month growth in employment (but specifically among those that qualify for UI). I've been following this stat since 2009, though historical data goes back to 1971 (the FTC report began in 1967).
Historically, in EVERY case where the increase in employed dropped below the 400k mark in a quarter, recession happened either concurrently, or within 6 months. This month's increase: 419,957. That's the smallest since before 2012.
Here's the recent trend:
Year Quarter Total Cov. Change running year drop in YoY
2018 2 141,433,196 419,957 1,927,559 155,456
2018 1 141,013,239 502,424 2,083,015 105,662
2017 4 140,510,815 521,107 2,188,677 148,751
2017 3 139,989,708 484,071 2,337,428 199,167
2017 2 139,505,637 575,413 2,536,595 123,406
2017 1 138,930,224 608,086 2,660,001 87,329
2016 4 138,322,138 669,858 2,747,330 101,043
2016 3 137,652,280 683,238 2,848,373 46,043
We are running into the employment wall. There simply will not be bodies to hire very, very soon. And unlike last century when the Boomer numbers plus the women leaving the kitchen for the workforce created a much greater inflow of new employees (relative to the outflow of retirees), there is no 'shadow' population of unengaged workers to draw from. There are only so many jobs 70 year olds CAN perform - and only so many employers willing to dip into that pool.
Wilfred Brimley will not be delivering Amazon packages. And Betty White will not be learning JavaScript.
The last of the Boomer retirees punch out in 2029. So, the next decade is going to be an entirely new kind of economic slog.
How about the part timers who want to work full time? Are black teenagers hopeless?
Betty white is alive?
PTs who want to work FT are covered in the household survey under the heading: Part Time for Economic reasons. (PT for non-economic reasons would be those who might 'want' to work FT, but cannot due to other factors, like caring for a parent, etc.).
During the Reagan recovery, the lowest that dropped was to 4.7M (before the '90 recession). When U3 bottomed at 3.9% under Clinton, this bottomed at 3.1M in 2000. It seems to have bottomed last year (4.8M in Oct.), and is drifting sideways at around 5M since.
Note: Part-timers in most states that make enough money are eligible for Unemployment Insurance. In most states, the deciding factor is actually how much total money one has earned during the previous 2 quarters, (though most PTers are clueless that they could get UI, so few bother to enter claims).
My Wilfred Brimley and Betty White comments were intended to taken figuratively, not literally. :)
Hee. Hee I know that.
Regarding black unemployment.
Yes, compared to whites they're still getting the short end of the stick. BUT ... things are actually MUCH better in an historical context.
Black employment (all ages and genders) started getting tracked in 1972.
During the '70s, it sat mostly in the lost teen area (13-15%).
During the '80s, it peaked at 20% under Reagan, then dropped to 11% before the recession in 1990.
During the '90s, it gradually fell all the way down to 7.3% when the overall rate was hitting 3.9.
During the Great Recession, it peaked at 16.5%, but recently hit an all-time low of 6.8% (December of 2017), and sits at 6.9% today.
At its worst, the black unemployment rate was 10 points higher than the overall rate ... and both during the Reagan and Clinton days, that shrunk to as little as a 4% difference. Currently, the 'penalty' for being black is only +2.8 compared to the overall rate. So, both in absolute terms and relative to the population, things are better, but certainly not good.
Well, it's a source of potential employees as well as people over 50. As well as part timers for eco.ic readons.
Yeah, I tried telling my my unitarian friends things were better for blacks, and they nearly had a consumption. I'd like to see it at less than 5.
They were under the impression that drop outs had gone up, which they haven't
Well...we got snow yesterday... How's y'all's weather?
Where are you Cinco?.
Good Morning!
Interesting note. A friend of mine 84 just got his contract renewed another 5 years much to his surprise as the company hired his replacement. Masters in Engineering but really has little practical experience.
I also know 80+ year old ranchers still working, none of them need the money but love to work and they arn't WalMart greeters. This dynamic I see has changed.
For LL,
http://www.bbc.com/news/av/technology-43824607/meet-the-robots-that-can-pick-and-plant-better-than-we-can
Finally the snow for the season is gone and rain starts today.
Hehehe. Nice day here today. Nebraska was the last nut if designated Indian land, before they kicked them out.
Go lose some money gambling as reparations.
Been busy... A dusting of snow again this morning. C'mon May!!!
LBD,
Yes, improvements in medicine "can" keep people in better physical condition beyond 70. But, that isn't the picture of the masses. A large chunk of the loss in participation since 2000 is due to the rise in disability cases. The rise in obesity and diabetes is not going to magically reverse itself overnight. "Maybe" 10 years from now the trends will change.
But US life expectancy dropped in 2016 and 2017. The last time that LE dropped two years running was in '62 and '63.
So, just like we have economic bifurcation, we are also seeing health bifurcation - with the increase in unhealthy waddling away from the uber-healthy.
Problems data can't cover, Health is a big one. The death rate probably comes from immigrants especially illegal ones. I should have died at my first heart attack in 1999. Since then I have been through the ringer. That being said how many retire at 50 that really aren't retired at all but not an employee? I became an absentee business owner investor and investment properties as well as rentals which I still have several. Couldn't have done all this if I past on like my 2 uncles did before me. I go back to 40 years of lop sided data due to illegal immigration. Call it what you want but that is my historical view.
The Indians closest to around here are the Rosebud tribe in SD. some in NE Nebraska but not may now days.
LBD,
While there are absolutely some major health concerns where illegal immigrants are causing problems, (primarily in the illegal entry group that do not have their inoculation shots prior to entry), they are NOT the cause for the lowered life expectancy.
First off - they are not (yet) a large enough % of the population to have that kind of impact on the overall numbers. But, more importantly, while the CDC doesn't keep track of "illegal aliens" in its data - it DOES keep track of Hispanic and Non-Hispanic White life expectancies separately.
In one recent case (2013 vs. 2014) ...
Hispanic LE ROSE from 81.6 to 81.8.
Non-Hispanic white LE FELL from 78.9 to 78.8.
Non-Hispanic black also rose from 75.1 to 75.2
So, in actuality Hispanics actually live longer than whites to begin with. Additionally, WHITE LE is dropping (which is the single largest cohort of the population - and is the cohort responsible for lowering the overall LE of the country). So, unless you are suggesting a massive influx of illegal Canadians is responsible for lowering our LE, try again.
Mind you, it is pretty much a given that illegals receive worse health care in the US (afraid to use it, for fear of getting deported - plus not having access to insurance, etc.). But, the illegal Hispanics are not even having enough of a detrimental impact on LE to bring the overall Hispanic LE down, much less the overall.
And just so you'll know. I worked for NCHS (division of CDC) for 20 years, writing software that helps code every death certificate in the country. So, death statistics are something I know something more about than the average bear.
And this time it's the doctor's fault. Oxy, indeed. I said said how a doc gave me 50 for minor pain. I took 3.
You have to differentiate between men and women too
Females are 81.1, down apparently..1. Article opined due to booze and opioids.
Hispanics have much closer families than whites do, as I have observed. Cubans mostly. 81.8
They help each other.
While I'm not up on the latest data at this point - yes, the primary negative pressures regarding LE in the US over the past 10 years are generally agreed to be:
Opioids
Suicides
Alzheimer's
These are the ones where the trend is in the wrong direction AND the numbers are large enough to matter.
The first two have a larger impact on the LE numbers because they tend to cause deaths relatively early in life, while Alzheimer's is typically late enough that it doesn't have as much negative pull on the LE total.
No data on legal or illegals who are generally uneducated wait to late to seek medical attention, kids not vaccinated properly etc. mothers waiting till the kid is about to pop has to raise the child death rate especially. I remember kids having out breaks of head lice in Kali from immigrant kids. Living under the radar is not going to show up in the data. Anyway you see data as truthful and I see it as very faulted. Just like accounting numbers can change in many ways. Have a nice weekend. :)
Why are young women so unhappy? Abuse? Less pay/opportunities? Parents sorry they got a girl?
They are really working on Alzheimer's. I read a neurology research blog and only understand half, but it's clear there's a lot of promising leads.
Yeah, lack of error bars.
Oh, noze, they are growing mini brains!
Where is dawg?
Not here yet
Good Morning!
People chose their path in life, most choices are a struggle but you can also chose to be happy or not. IMO.
Sometimes you can. Sometimes you need drugs.
.
.
For depression
Sometimes but not to much. I do have a close family member who needs them but it took year to correctly identify the problem. Not easy and just throwing drugs at people is not the answer. IMO
True. . . It was pain meds which threw me into depression. In the first place. I took only 3! And they didn't work as well as plain old aspirin, which I switched to. Now I am very reluctant about pain pills and everybody else should too!
Dawg, come back
Rain for over 24hrs. straight easy, less then an inch soaks right in as I have some bare hills I just seeded.
Now on Berlinta and they took all the over the counter pain meds that helped my inflammation. Still take one hydrocodone in the evening, that's my limit.
Some foods are supposed to help inflammation. A little bit of rain here.
Almonds (which I love), avocados, broccoli and carrots, and dried beans.
Florida was in the 3rd military Distri t after the Civil war.
Florida did have a plantation culture. South Florida is Cuba North and Northerners South, with some Island people thrown in, so nothing of that remains.
Dawg? Dawg? Dawg?
Toy time! I hope the rain is over for a while. I got a blackstone 36" flatop griddle and just ordered a new mig welder Hobart 210 MVP American made!
That will cook a lot of pancakes.
Whatcha gonna weld? The hub only welds electronic stuff. He had a gold tip on one
Good morning!
No rain and sun is coming up!
Going to start off slow cooking chicken fajitas. I make a lot of stuff and have enough welders to weld almost anything. Right now finishing a pair of forks for my skid steer. Some skills I am trying to relearn. It's kind of like riding a bike, you never forget. I have the falling off part down very well.
Soldering iron. They don't make them.
Warmed up fast this AM, so I did sliders with steamed cheddar cheese. Not bad for my first shot. :)
I have various soldering irons and even have used small screwdrivers with a propane torch in a pinch. Hack of all Trades Master of None.
It's just you a nd me, LBD.
We went to a short writer's convention to day, pretty good.
Did we save the world or did I miss something?
Fajitas where great just one problem. My better half is making me cook for the summer! Not sure if that's a good thing but she has earned a break. :)
Okay, okay. I've been a poor host. A new post is up and I promise more even as we embark on the great kitchen gutting.
I would never ever ask that.
He can only concentrate on one food at a time.
But since I have had my event, (whatever it was) he's been really doing a lot.
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