What happens when we "dig down?"
Doesn't look so average average now does it?
Data source: US Temp & Precip Maps
Sunday, April 22, 2018
Weather is Local
We've all experienced a different winter of 2017-18. Some may even think it isn't even over yet. And that's the point of this post. You can carve data into thick juicy steaks or into delicate thin slices. Too thick and it is hard to digest. Too thin and it falls apart. Take CONUS temperatures for March.
Unremarkable for such a long period of measurement. Seems we've had an average winter.
What happens when we "dig down?"
What happens when we "dig down?"
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
41 comments:
First.
There, it might encourage somebody
You like doing this? Or, just cheap?
Good morning.
Good Morning from the mountain of Central America!
We had more then double the normal snow for 3 months of winter according to the TV weather reader. Not that much rain yet this Spring.
Good morning. All kinds of interesting maps at the link. Check them out.
LBD,
I get that any data that does not match your belief system must somehow be tainted. Fine. You can believe what you want and ignore what you want. No skin off my nose.
But, I do want to point out a logical inconsistency regarding the life expectancy data.
You contend that illegals are pulling down national life expectancy.
THEN, when presented data contrary to your belief, you contend that they are not getting picked up in the data. Those positions are contradictory.
They can ONLY pull down national LE if they are picked up in the data.
So, I want to thank you for making my point so well for me.
Illegals cannot be pulling down the national life expectancy, because they are not part of the data.
Illegals undoubtably make it into the life expectancy calculation. How much they affect is a different question. Infant mortality is effectively zero as far as US calculations are concerned for those who die very young in other countries. Then again Live births to recent illegals here in the US, a sizeable number, are likely to have little to no prenatal care increasing our infant death rate. Adult illegals are likely to self select for those healthier but when they get to the US they take jobs that shorten lifespan.
So, while their births and deaths make it into the US data, I can see no way of seeing the net consequences.
Government has become like religion, you either believe or you don't. Government is in general not my friend and view the actions and not the data. Small town here has 11 in a Hispanic learning program as well as other communities here in Nebraska. Back multiply and the number is significant IMO. Anyway Have fun and watch for the truth. :)
I think Mexicans are treated so badly because they are taking their country back. And a lot of them have a great deal of Indian DNA, of very sophisticated tho ferocious civilization. I think that this is the last gasp of Indian hatred. If you doubt this, read some history. I don't think they honored a single treaty.
Taking it back bit by bit.
Mexicans are not like past migrants their intent is not to assimilate and they are not severing ties with their homelands. No ocean to cut them off. That's why the "wall" has appeal. It speaks to there being separate national identities.
Well, from a non-government research organization: Pew Research Center
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/
Total illegals peaked around 2007.
Just slightly LESS than half all illegals are Mexicans. (Growing numbers from South America war zones - and Asia).
US labor force includes ~ 8 million unauthorized immigrants, accounting for 5% of those who were working or unemployed and looking.
The % of illegals in the US > 10 years has been steadily rising since about 2004.
====================
There are currently roughly 56 million Hispanics in the US, with an estimated 8 million from primarily Hispanic countries, so about 14-15% of Hispanics are "unauthorized", meaning about 85% are either citizens or here legally.
=====================
But, if one wants to delve into stereotypes in order to reach conclusions - MY experience is that all Hispanics (legal and illegal) play soccer. So, while rich white kids are spending 8 hours a day playing Call of Duty and posting on Instagram, the reason Hispanic LE in the US is a couple years BETTER than White LE - is because Hispanics are all either playing soccer or building houses.
Full disclosure, a few years ago, at age 49, the Chilean and Peruvian legal immigrants that worked with me invited me to their Friday at lunch soccer game, (which was mostly guys beyond 40 - and about 1/2 white and 1/2 Hispanic). The guy from Peru actually already had dual citizenship, and in addition to his FT job at my company, was teaching SQL at the local community college on the side trying to get ahead financially before having kids.
A large number of the Hispanics worked for a guy who owned his own painting company. And the lunch-time soccer game was one of the perks for working there. All of these guys would play soccer for 60-90 minutes on Fridays, and then go back to work and make up the time, (except me -- I was getting 5 weeks of vacation at the time, so I just went home after and burned .5 day of vacation each week during the warm months).
I see we have a nut in Toronto today. :(
What happened
Nut in a rental truck ran down the side walk killing 9 and injured 18. They caught him when cornered he gave up. I did see a bus conversion that said paramedic on the roof, big enough to be a mobile surgery. Not a bad idea now days.
Is it that the number of nuts has skyrocketed? Or, it's always this bad and wasn't reported.
I think they have increased not just the terrorist. They learn from each other and I havn't heard if this guy is a terrorist.
Good morning All. World is still here. !!Dawg!! Send kitchen pictures!
Will this take longer than the bathroom?
Good Morning!
Rain again today but no snow!
He has a deck, grill and a cooler what more does a man need?
It's easier to have your belief system reinforced with the flattening of communication. If you are a nut, it's easier to find other nuts and talk yourselves into doing nutty things. Media is also to blame a bit. When you focus on the actions of a nut for weeks, it tells future nuts that they can do the damage they want to do and cause the pain they want to cause and it will be successful. When you think about it from the nuts point of view, the tragedy is a success story.
He has a deck, grill and a cooler what more does a man need?
Stuff in the cooler!
Will this take longer than the bathroom?
Performance penalties. Will NOT take 11 weeks. Took the "before" pictures yesterday. Will publish as soon as the space is gutted.
But what does a woman want?
NOT a cooler.
A bottle of bubbly in the cooler and not the cheap stuff!
Cold duck?
Dead duck? (old family joke) No, Dom Perginon!
Dead duck! Not just your family joke.
Off topic. Anything "must do" in Breckenridge CO in summer?
Unusually warm weather this week in Oregon so took the opp to work remotely from Cape Kiwanda. Temps supposed to set local records in Portland this week.
---
Have the Parkland kids marched for banning trucks yet? Paris, NYC, now Toronto... WIKI lists 65 separate "vehicle ramming attacks" this century.
Paper says he was a muttering disabled type nut. Who knew how to drive a cat.
Car
Crazy nut tests goven with drivers tests? And anger management training and tests? I'm actually serious.
How many total dead.
Question. Will unemployment go down to 4.0, 3.9? Is 3.9 full employment?
Good Morning!
How do they connect this to the NRA their whipping boy? UK fixed it all with gun bans and now is after knives as murders pick up where guns left off. Next will be blunt heavy objects to go after. The tools change the motives don't.
In truth, there is no specific number that is "full employment".
One needs to understand there are a dozen (or more) different reasons that the unemployment rate CANNOT ever hit zero. In no particular order.
1) Location (jobs and people aren't in same place)
2) Latency or Market friction (businesses fail every day - so they lay off people every day - and even in a market desperate for workers - it takes TIME to find and hire people).
3) Some jobs require skills that are rare enough that everyone with those skills already has a job.
4) Some people are effectively unemployable, (unreliable, lack skills, no transportation, no education, drug problems, family problems, mental problems, physical handicaps, etc.), but as long as they keep looking they are counted as unemployed.
IMO, we have already hit "Full Employment", (4.1% for 6 months running). This doesn't mean that hitting 4.0 or 3.9 for a month or two isn't possible. The methodology actually has a rather large MOE, so seeing 3.9 next month and 4.2 the month after would effectively mean nothing. The fact U3 has been "exactly" 4.1% for 6 months is more fluke than deterministic. But, it DOES indicate we have hit a plateau.
Now, if you plateau at 7%, there's clearly more room for improvement. But, since 1970, we have been below 4.1% U3 for a grand total of 11 months, (between Dec. 1999 and 2000). But, only 1 month below 3.9. So, one could reasonably peg Full Employment at 3.9% based on the 2000 data, but IMO, the aging population is probably one of the things nudging that floor up slightly, (older labor force unable to do EITHER the physically demanding jobs OR having the requisite knowledge for the tech jobs available - nor the time to learn them).
As a side note, I was talking about Full Employment to a friend who owns a veterinarian practice. She was attempting to refute my position by stating she recently had placed ads for help and had been swamped with applicants ... only to then note that she attempted to hire several of the candidates, as one after the other failed to work out, (one failed to show on day 1 -- one was stealing from the till - one had a drug problem). She finally got so disgusted, she pulled the ads, and the position.
To press her point as to who is employable. Lots of people who need work but for what ever reason are unable to perform the duties. Minimum work output can't be measured either. Been there done that, dead wood floating through life and there is a lot. 1990's
Some of my bosses have been dead wood. One had a politically important dad.
What drug was it, if you know?
There is always some dead wood but it has been out of control for decades. I hear it now from local business people. Every bodies Ideal is a business with out employees. I still have to train property Managers especially the young ones. The accounting mistakes happen to often. Crazy.
New post.
Post a Comment