Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Friday, May 25, 2018
When Realtors measure Square Footage
Not such a bad house and "only" $130/sf. But wait.
Nice. Modern, open, top condition.
Ohhhh this is where a 1200sf house turns into a 2400sf house.
In Miami there are very specif in c rules with very specfic details. We don't have attics like that, only crawl spaces. A porch is half interior space. Iirc a Florida room is less than 100%.. a bedroom must have a closet. Take it out, it's a den. I actually like these regulation. I don't know about basement because no one has one almost. I was in litigation once over square footage and mlmthe opposition hired an arcictect, who did not know about these regs. We won
I love the requirement of a closet when old houses had small rooms and no closet, Stupid. IMO Attic rooms in old houses are like a bowling alley. Sales talk is everything finished is Sq Ft. LOL!
The road trip coming this fall back through I-40 Nice drive.
Bacon egg and cheese biscuits on the flat top grill this AM. Pool party continues, water 90F. Solar working need one more solar pad. Works good but can't handle it alone especially this time of year.
Watching coverage of the Hawaiian volcano they talked about how the lava progress was on pace with a turtle... but the next day it was up to 2+ mph. Considering the all-consuming nature of the lava that's a pretty scary pace.
Actually I remember Mt. St.Helen cooled the earth for about a year so the scientist predicted. I guess it all depends on what day of the week it is. They where peddling the coming ice age then as well.
It drive me crazy, these people throwing their body and soul into a house on the flanks of a very active volcano. Naturally, they don't want to leave. Yank them away, or let Darwin take care of it
I too believe that you cannot and should not forcibly evacuate people. If they choose to stay, then their lives are in their own hands as of that moment. Of course, no later rescue will even be entertained should they suddenly change their minds.
Liberty truly means deciding one's own fate, but it also means living (or dying) with the consequences of own's one choices.
Now a headline says they are going ahead with the tariffs again I am more and more ignoring Trump, because he changes hiz mind 16 times before he does something. Waste of time until he does it.
In the real news Roseann is the most important right now. Is Greece a problem? I forget, that was so last week. It really questions the reality of financial problems and who gets bailed out or do they just drop down the list as others emerge as worse then Greece making them better on the curve? Spain? who's next? Will the Euro dissolve? My guess is no. How about those pensions?
On evacuations: flip the rules. If you build in disaster zones, you are REQUIRED to be at your residence during the disaster. If absent, government will pick up the tab to ship you IN. Would completely alter the profile of landowners and building in disaster prone areas.
On Roseanne: I miss the Republican Party that would at least pay lip service to personal responsibility. She wasn't fired by the government, or the democratic party, or the liberal media. She was fired by a private, for-profit enterprise in response to comments she made. Same as Jimmy the Greek in the '80s - and Don Imus in the '90s - or Cathy Griffin by CNN.
On the economy: Employment report is fantastic. U3 = 3.8; U6 = 7.6; Total Unemployed down to 6.0 million. Gains in nearly every demographic with the largest being a .7 drop for African Americans (6.6 to 5.9 ... I'm 99% sure the 5.9 AA rate is the lowest in history). Those without a HS diploma dropped from 5.9 to 5.4. PT for economic reasons dropped by 37k.
One has to look really, really hard to find even the littlest quibble - which is the labor pool only grew by 12,000 as the not-in-labor-force grew by 170k and participation rate fell to 62.7, (exactly where it was a year ago).
The GDP Now numbers for the second quarter are looking incredible at the moment (over 4.0). I actually have been predicting a big 2nd quarter, as that is where I expect the tax change benefits to be concentrated. But, I was only expecting a jump from my predicted 2.0 Q1 to a 2.8 in Q2. We're sitting on 2.2 for Q1 with one more revision to go - but second quarter looks like a strong candidate for coming in over 3.0 (maybe even upper end), unless June is particularly harsh. I don't expect that to happen. Though I do think the Trump tariff engine is going to ultimately be a net negative, I think latency will have most of those impacts hitting in 3rd and 4th quarters.
Rosanne reminds me in some way of Alice Cooper. As he got more and more outlandish on stage, he got more and more popular... Until he got so outlandish that no one wanted to see him anymore...
Firemane. There’s something about Q1 adjustments lower that get captured in Q2 GDP so my technique has been to average. That’s still H1 3.3% which is very good. I also suspect the surviving middle classes are finished rebuilding reserves from the Great Recession and we might see a spike in new spending cars and home improvement.
Home Depo here has been very busy for months here. Can't find contractors. Restaurants busy. Unemployment low. Black people down to 5.9%, lowest since they've been counting in 1972. So, is this full employment for black people? If not, say what is. 3.8 for mlm overall. If that's not full employment, say what is.
I get you on the flakiness of pull-forwards, etc., on quarterly stats. And you're right - any way it shakes out, first half of 2018 should be really sweet GDP-wise.
I get your logic regarding spending increases - I'm just not buying (pun intended). :)
The problem is new car sales are already at historical maximums. You hit 17 million annual and there's not much room to improve. And that is BEFORE you start to factor in the aging of America (retirees don't buy as often), plus the relative millennial disdain for car ownership, (why buy, when I can uber - unless I like, actually wanna be an uber?). Ironically, I had a first date last night - and her current profession - Uber driver. Not going to be a second date. But I digress.
Home improvement? That makes a LOT more sense - especially with interest rates already showing signs of slowing the real estate buy/sell market. If I were willing to gamble on individual stocks, I'd definitely be looking at places like Lowe's and Home Depot - (full disclosure - every time I have 'picked' an individual stock as a buy it has done horribly in the next 6-12 months - which is why I don't dabble in individual stocks - I pick worse than Kudlow).
I'd target hospitality as an income disposal destination ahead of cars, even though we're also at historical highs there as well. (Geezer Cruises may be on MY horizon - assuming I can find another long term or even short term partner some time soon).
If there is an underlying cultural change as a result of the crash of 2008 - I would posit that it is a shift from "stuff" to "experiences". The Greatest Generation went without "stuff" during the Great Depression and WWII - so the focus on accumulation that followed wasn't surprising.
Gen-X and the Millennials have always had stuff - unless it was snatched from them as a result of the housing madness.
(Yoda voice) Squander their cash, they will. But not on this crude matter. Entertainment is what they seek.
Unemployment in Brevard County is 3.4%. If this isn't full employment here, I don't know what is. 3.3? 3.2? There are Nasa retirees who just stay here. They are NOT poor white people.
They count as half, in Dade. People illegally turn them into rooms illegally all the time. You have to build up the floor which is expensive. And otherwise make it code compliant.
If one adds 66 to the birth years to judge "peak retirement" years, we are entering year 2 of a retirement upswing that doesn't peak until 2023 ... and doesn't start trending down until 2027.
A while back, the number that became the quick go-to for counting retirees was 10,000 a day (3.6M a year). Well, from 1948-1951, guess how many births? 3.6M. But, in 1957 that number is closer to 4.3M.
The retirement surge is actually in the process of getting worse.
The good news is there was a birth surge in the early '00s that will counter some of that - but after the economic crash, births nosedived following the '07 peak. So, for the next dozen years, we can expect new workers to barely replace retirees (and given the long-term trends in "prime working age" participation), maybe not even that.
The days of 200k net gains in monthly NFP are about to come to a screeching halt. And, as near as I can tell, nobody in the economic punditry is saying anything about it.
I look forward to the coming stock market expansion despite the downward pressure of retirees withdrawing their 401k and millennials being forced to choose between retirement contributions and having a roof over their heads.
Commidian Mahar commented recetlybon this. My Dil is preggers this kid will be swooned ovet, rather than having to fight for every seat in school and job opening.
The only withdrawals we've made are required by the tax code on IRAs. Othewise we live on generous pension money, SS for both and dividend on stock bbnmy bbnmom gave us.
I was born in 1935. Almost at the birth minimum in the Great Depression. Worked well for me as it meant there was less competition for schools and jobs. The Depression, WW2, Cold War and Space Race worked well for me. May you and your grand daughter have a wonderful life.
I don't think there will be a recession for a year to a year and a half more. My prediction keeps extending out. Increasing workerz will be spending more money. And getting less unemployment benefits.
Work vacation helping a relative remodel some kitchen and baths. I don't need a job I have to much work to do. Back home and very tired, back to my own home projects. :)
His opponent was much much worse. Hard to believe. Had only one position. Open housing. You home is yo ur castle, protect it!!! You would have voted for ole Spiro.
Nixon didn't have a Comeys group and the media on his side Different time. Looks like BC is now media bait as the Dems try to move on away from them. Still waiting to see where the new Dems are going the nut stuff is wearing thin, IMO.
Trump is nuts but you can't run a campaign on that. How about some positions on things? Volcanos have shoved him off the media a bit. May the lava flow and make Big island bigger. And nobody killed. And may they be told you can't re bopuild on an active volcano
T is crazy like a fox. Lots has been done from taxes to the economy picking up, you keep seeing employment improvement especially for blacks, North Korea, Moving the embassy in Israel as a few predecessors promised, Trade looks crazy right now but his methods have worked so far, Iran deal coming undone as it should have never been made. Others so I would say the crazy man is getting things done, like them or not. IMO
Kind of nuts to rebuild on an active volcano. =;0>
Still amazing to me the blindness of partisanship.
LBD,
Go look at those "how many people getting UI" numbers I posted.
Obama entered at a moment of economic crisis - the ship turned around - and he left with the economy in vastly better shape than when he entered. Yet, you cannot see/admit that he had anything to do with that.
Yet, you give Trump credit for the current economy - based off what?
I don't deny the economy at this moment is great. But, please give me the "what he did" that changed it.
Obummer inherited the mess and it was a big one constructed over a long time from both parties. Obummer did little to help but push his agenda of hate and division. His promise of helping blacks did nothing. Green energy is a flop except funding his friends failures to be bought up by mostly foreign companies. O passed or appointed people who caused ridiculous standards that killed some businesses. Sold Uranium forcing his green energy policy. Coal had locally effected the UP railroad who was big in hauling coal and the Wyoming coal industry, T got tax cuts passed for a better business climate and jobs hopefully of better quality. O was the worst president in my life time. Hillary would have been worse. T was not my choice nor did I think he would get elected. I voted against Hillary and to my surprise he won and is doing a very good job. Data does not set attitudes and set hope for a better future. IMO :)
Talking heads seem to think he can’t be charge as it’s Congresses job to handle, so a play on words. T hasn’t had the easiest time either. Old guard running for the door and the last spending bill didn’t get his wishes accomplished, then the Dems pretty much voting the party line. Mid term election will cement grid lock or may support T. Stay tuned for the next episode.
What Obama did do was run a playbook almost identical to Reagan's in response to an economic crisis.
He massively cut taxes, (40% of the Stimulus package was tax cuts). He drove up Federal spending, (the other 60% of the stimulus package - though the bulk of what actually got spent was shoring up the gaping funding holes in state Medicaid funds).
But, he did it starting from a far less advantageous point.
Reagan had interest rates that would eventually peak at 20% - which allowed him a lot of room to drop (and thereby encourage business spending). Fed funds rate hit zero in December before he took office.
But, the combo of cut taxes and raise spending was precisely what Reagan did. Then he stepped back and let the economy recover. And unemployment recovered at a slightly faster pace under Obama than under Reagan (some mitigating factors in both eras - but nonetheless true).
Not saying he didn't have some blunders - but I cannot fathom the logic that ranks Obama behind "W" as worst President since WWII. My personal fav President in my life remains Bush Sr. My opinion, Obama was a solid orator, meh President, whose screw ups were relatively minor (especially compared to "W"). But, in the end, the country ended up VASTLY better off after his 8 years than when he entered.
Bush one wasn't that great. He was a globalist that accelerated a lot of today's problems. Bowing to world pressures by not finishing the war in Iraq. Preaching no new taxes really got him. Bush two needed to finish Iraq but did a horrible job of it and let the economy run wild out of control from deregulation started by Bush one signed off by Clinton. Not a real favorite in the bunch for me. So I am not Republican hack but a fiscal conservative. That was the old world of responsibility. IMO
Mish has a nice hit piece on wages and if you can believe the data.
T did find a unique way of implementing "fiscal responsibility". There are so many unappointed federal positions that it's amazing some of the departments are still running at all. If you don't like the mission of the parks department or the EPA or the justice department, just don't hire any staff. Bonus points for then being able to blame the agency for failing to do their job.
Bush Sr. was the one who implemented PAYGO - the underlying change to Washington budget process that allowed Clinton to erase the Reagan deficits and leave office turning over budget surpluses to "W" (which he destroyed, along with PAYGO).
For a fiscal conservative, who could you possibly like better than Bush I?
Yes, the "no new taxes" pledge bit him in the a** ... precisely because he ultimately did the ACTUAL fiscal conservative thing - and worked to fix things, instead of doing the politically expedient things and simply kicking the can down the road.
I completely disagree with your assessment on the choice to leave Saddam in power. We've actually gotten to see the results of the path of the "W" nation building attempt - and it's been a disaster. You admit as much.
Never said leave Saddam in power, W made a big mess of it IMO. Clinton did nothing meaningful with Iraq. He wanted his own war in the history books. Leaving W to deal with it in the same manor W dumped the recession on O. Every party tries to erase the others accomplishments good or bad. They all want to control the cookie jar and over spend it they way they want. O left T with more international messes then anybody. People got sick of it and now we have T. IMO
120 comments:
In Miami there are very specif in c rules with very specfic details. We don't have attics like that, only crawl spaces. A porch is half interior space. Iirc a Florida room is less than 100%.. a bedroom must have a closet. Take it out, it's a den. I actually like these regulation. I don't know about basement because no one has one almost. I was in litigation once over square footage and mlmthe opposition hired an arcictect, who did not know about these regs. We won
Good Morning!
I love the requirement of a closet when old houses had small rooms and no closet, Stupid. IMO Attic rooms in old houses are like a bowling alley. Sales talk is everything finished is Sq Ft. LOL!
Building rock walls today... And it's hot and muggy... Ugh
Packing for a road trip. Breckinridge CO via Gallup NM and all the cool stuff along those lines. Grand Canyon, Petrified Forest, Monument Valley, etc.
Cool. I've never been west of the Mississippi.
Running away from the kitchen?
I’d rather be here to micromanage but the vacation was in the works for longer than the kitchen.
Good morning!
The road trip coming this fall back through I-40 Nice drive.
Bacon egg and cheese biscuits on the flat top grill this AM. Pool party continues, water 90F. Solar working need one more solar pad. Works good but can't handle it alone especially this time of year.
A bit of travel today. I’ll check from the Grand Canyon.
News flash! The recession continues at the mall! Last big name anchor Staples is closing!
Grand Canyon was awesome. Greetings from Flagstaff. Interesting mix of cultures.
Seeing Monument Valley? Go to the North Rim and take the mule ride down to the river.
Too much exercise yesterday. Legs and shoulders hurt. DIL is taking bets on when the blessed event happens. That last month is a killer.
Well... Happy Memorial Day... In a veteran...LBD?
Happy Memorial Day. Son is a vet.
Good Morning! 1 1/2" rain last night and still coming down.
Happy memorial day! Son of two vets, Mom WWII Dad WWI, Korea, Viet Nam. I was Drafted failed the physical.
I chased a turtle today. They can go fast. Arrest me for turtle molestation.🐾🐾🐾
Watching coverage of the Hawaiian volcano they talked about how the lava progress was on pace with a turtle... but the next day it was up to 2+ mph. Considering the all-consuming nature of the lava that's a pretty scary pace.
Good morning.
Yep, not one has said that the islands would not be there if not for the volcanoes. They are on a hot spot, moving slowly.
Good Morning!
Volcanoes are causing global warming and pollution! LOL!
Well, pollution, anyway.
Actually I remember Mt. St.Helen cooled the earth for about a year so the scientist predicted. I guess it all depends on what day of the week it is. They where peddling the coming ice age then as well.
It drive me crazy, these people throwing their body and soul into a house on the flanks of a very active volcano. Naturally, they don't want to leave. Yank them away, or let Darwin take care of it
Yet another resignation.
At some point it isn't worth it even when they have done no wrong. Doesn't quit look like it this time.
Watched Christid and Vomey interviews. Both very impressive. I am surprised
Nope. Looks guilty
Christie and Comey
I too believe that you cannot and should not forcibly evacuate people. If they choose to stay, then their lives are in their own hands as of that moment. Of course, no later rescue will even be entertained should they suddenly change their minds.
Liberty truly means deciding one's own fate, but it also means living (or dying) with the consequences of own's one choices.
Now a headline says they are going ahead with the tariffs again
I am more and more ignoring Trump, because he changes hiz mind 16 times before he does something. Waste of time until he does it.
Italy. Buy the dip?
Why did Greece go away as a big problem?
Good Morning!
In the real news Roseann is the most important right now. Is Greece a problem? I forget, that was so last week. It really questions the reality of financial problems and who gets bailed out or do they just drop down the list as others emerge as worse then Greece making them better on the curve? Spain? who's next? Will the Euro dissolve? My guess is no. How about those pensions?
Italy has a large economy
The banks were inoculated against Greece. Thus no problem. There is no protection from Italy.
Too large I guess. They'd be lucky to get a Caesar.
Cabinets are assembled.
Had a nice hike in Breckenridge CO.
I’ll try to remote log on and put up pictures from both.
Today I begged must piteously for a contractor to come out.
Thunder.
Dark cloud.
Plumbers do come out when they say.
To catch up:
On evacuations: flip the rules. If you build in disaster zones, you are REQUIRED to be at your residence during the disaster. If absent, government will pick up the tab to ship you IN. Would completely alter the profile of landowners and building in disaster prone areas.
On Roseanne: I miss the Republican Party that would at least pay lip service to personal responsibility. She wasn't fired by the government, or the democratic party, or the liberal media. She was fired by a private, for-profit enterprise in response to comments she made. Same as Jimmy the Greek in the '80s - and Don Imus in the '90s - or Cathy Griffin by CNN.
On the economy: Employment report is fantastic. U3 = 3.8; U6 = 7.6; Total Unemployed down to 6.0 million. Gains in nearly every demographic with the largest being a .7 drop for African Americans (6.6 to 5.9 ... I'm 99% sure the 5.9 AA rate is the lowest in history). Those without a HS diploma dropped from 5.9 to 5.4. PT for economic reasons dropped by 37k.
One has to look really, really hard to find even the littlest quibble - which is the labor pool only grew by 12,000 as the not-in-labor-force grew by 170k and participation rate fell to 62.7, (exactly where it was a year ago).
The GDP Now numbers for the second quarter are looking incredible at the moment (over 4.0). I actually have been predicting a big 2nd quarter, as that is where I expect the tax change benefits to be concentrated. But, I was only expecting a jump from my predicted 2.0 Q1 to a 2.8 in Q2. We're sitting on 2.2 for Q1 with one more revision to go - but second quarter looks like a strong candidate for coming in over 3.0 (maybe even upper end), unless June is particularly harsh. I don't expect that to happen. Though I do think the Trump tariff engine is going to ultimately be a net negative, I think latency will have most of those impacts hitting in 3rd and 4th quarters.
Rosanne reminds me in some way of Alice Cooper. As he got more and more outlandish on stage, he got more and more popular... Until he got so outlandish that no one wanted to see him anymore...
Firemane. There’s something about Q1 adjustments lower that get captured in Q2 GDP so my technique has been to average. That’s still H1 3.3% which is very good. I also suspect the surviving middle classes are finished rebuilding reserves from the Great Recession and we might see a spike in new spending cars and home improvement.
Home Depo here has been very busy for months here.
Can't find contractors.
Restaurants busy.
Unemployment low.
Black people down to 5.9%, lowest since they've been counting in 1972. So, is this full employment for black people? If not, say what is.
3.8 for mlm overall. If that's not full employment, say what is.
Dawg,
I get you on the flakiness of pull-forwards, etc., on quarterly stats. And you're right - any way it shakes out, first half of 2018 should be really sweet GDP-wise.
I get your logic regarding spending increases - I'm just not buying (pun intended). :)
The problem is new car sales are already at historical maximums. You hit 17 million annual and there's not much room to improve. And that is BEFORE you start to factor in the aging of America (retirees don't buy as often), plus the relative millennial disdain for car ownership, (why buy, when I can uber - unless I like, actually wanna be an uber?). Ironically, I had a first date last night - and her current profession - Uber driver. Not going to be a second date. But I digress.
Home improvement? That makes a LOT more sense - especially with interest rates already showing signs of slowing the real estate buy/sell market. If I were willing to gamble on individual stocks, I'd definitely be looking at places like Lowe's and Home Depot - (full disclosure - every time I have 'picked' an individual stock as a buy it has done horribly in the next 6-12 months - which is why I don't dabble in individual stocks - I pick worse than Kudlow).
I'd target hospitality as an income disposal destination ahead of cars, even though we're also at historical highs there as well. (Geezer Cruises may be on MY horizon - assuming I can find another long term or even short term partner some time soon).
If there is an underlying cultural change as a result of the crash of 2008 - I would posit that it is a shift from "stuff" to "experiences". The Greatest Generation went without "stuff" during the Great Depression and WWII - so the focus on accumulation that followed wasn't surprising.
Gen-X and the Millennials have always had stuff - unless it was snatched from them as a result of the housing madness.
(Yoda voice)
Squander their cash, they will. But not on this crude matter. Entertainment is what they seek.
We can't be at full employment. Roseanne doesn't have a job. :)
Nice timing - CalculatedRisk posts the latest car sales:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/06/us-light-vehicle-sales-decrease-to-169.html
"Light vehicle sales decrease to 16.9 million"
(no mention of dark vehicles)
If you go and check out the chart, sales peaked at just over 18 million last September and has been trending downward for 8 months.
No extra charge for the trains.....
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1744-Nob-Hill-Dr-Running-Springs-CA-92382/89165359_zpid/
Good Morning. Everything is green . New Baby here in a month.
Good morning New baby here in a month about.
The County shows 2,200 Square feet, the seller claims 3,000, the appraisal shows 2,500.
Size matters.
Lots of fun.
Unemployment in Brevard County is 3.4%. If this isn't full employment here, I don't know what is. 3.3? 3.2? There are Nasa retirees who just stay here. They are NOT poor white people.
What do porches count as? That attic? As a percentages of square foot.
Brevard County over 20 years unemployment 3.2%! Full unemployment? 3.0? 2.9?
I was fully employed in cleaning the kitchen.
That house could be improved by dormers, which i normally don't like.
Trump even more of a moron releasing those employment figures early
Debate Romney v kennedy. Neither would say anything specific on raising taxes or cutting spending. Bah.
Well, now they are gonna arrest people for not leaving the lava threatened area.
Liz's blog. I have adversely possessed it.
My food at the u u was greatly appreciated.
No fun unless I am challenged.
Bah.
Bah, squared.
Shredded blue jeans as insulation.
Good morning, nobody but me.
For Liz:
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/06/naires-say-theyre-middle-class.html
I will be back Thursday.
US has polite volcanoes. Guatemala not so much.
Want to be a realtor? 32,000 views in 5 days:
https://www.facebook.com/MrMendez619/posts/1899722756718015
Mt St Helen would like to have a word with you about our polite volcanos
Well, one burst and it was over with. For a long time, maybe.
We really really want Yellowstone to stay polite.
On topic: Enclosed garages should not be added sqft.
They count as half, in Dade. People illegally turn them into rooms illegally all the time. You have to build up the floor which is expensive. And otherwise make it code compliant.
Rain here today, and quite cool... Low 50s... Much preferred to the high 80s on Saturday
Calculated risk posted an update noting US births are down (again).
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/06/us-births-decreased-in-2017.html
More interesting to me is the long time birth chart:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6a3mldys3ec/WxHTL-kac-I/AAAAAAAAvGY/9GHMvpAqr4Uu2bWbSSyj5jmcwBRlHRa1QCLcBGAs/s1600/Births2017.PNG
If one adds 66 to the birth years to judge "peak retirement" years, we are entering year 2 of a retirement upswing that doesn't peak until 2023 ... and doesn't start trending down until 2027.
A while back, the number that became the quick go-to for counting retirees was 10,000 a day (3.6M a year). Well, from 1948-1951, guess how many births? 3.6M. But, in 1957 that number is closer to 4.3M.
The retirement surge is actually in the process of getting worse.
The good news is there was a birth surge in the early '00s that will counter some of that - but after the economic crash, births nosedived following the '07 peak. So, for the next dozen years, we can expect new workers to barely replace retirees (and given the long-term trends in "prime working age" participation), maybe not even that.
The days of 200k net gains in monthly NFP are about to come to a screeching halt. And, as near as I can tell, nobody in the economic punditry is saying anything about it.
I look forward to the coming stock market expansion despite the downward pressure of retirees withdrawing their 401k and millennials being forced to choose between retirement contributions and having a roof over their heads.
Commidian Mahar commented recetlybon this. My Dil is preggers this kid will be swooned ovet, rather than having to fight for every seat in school and job opening.
Maher recently on over
The only withdrawals we've made are required by the tax code on IRAs. Othewise we live on generous pension money, SS for both and dividend on stock bbnmy bbnmom gave us.
My grandchild will be born in the great birth dearth.
I was born in 1935. Almost at the birth minimum in the Great Depression. Worked well for me as it meant there was less competition for schools and jobs. The Depression, WW2, Cold War and Space Race worked well for me.
May you and your grand daughter have a wonderful life.
Thanks. Ultrasound reveLed a grandson.
I don't think there will be a recession for a year to a year and a half more. My prediction keeps extending out. Increasing workerz will be spending more money. And getting less unemployment benefits.
Good Morning!
Work vacation helping a relative remodel some kitchen and baths. I don't need a job I have to much work to do. Back home and very tired, back to my own home projects. :)
I merely cleaned the kitchen and am hemming pants.
Had to find pins. A pin shortage at my house. Is there a tariff on them?
Pins, another fine Chimerica product. I used to by Reardon steel but the government put them out of business. :)
LL,
Just fyi. Here's some historical data on "Continuing Claims" - how many people were actually getting an unemployment check in a given week.
Clinton:
High 2.88 million (Oct. 1993)
Low 1.98 million (May of 2000)
During the "W" admin,
High 3.74 million (June 2003)
Low: 2.35 million (April 2006)
Obama:
Entered at: 4.98 Million
High 6.6 million (June 2009)
Low: 2.02 million (Nov 2016)
Trump:
Entered at: 2.05 million (also high)
Low : 1.7 million (current)
I had A long response which got eaten.
To the effect that a dishonest pol could be an effective pol.
Remember Spiro Agnew?
Dirty tricks a way of life.
A dishonest one got major teams to Baltimore
Sprio Agnew, Ah yes. What a mess he was, in a world of dishonesty he got tagged. LOL!
His opponent was much much worse. Hard to believe. Had only one position. Open housing. You home is yo ur castle, protect it!!! You would have voted for ole Spiro.
Nixon was my first time voting. LOL!
Nixon had the grace to walk away.
Nixon didn't have a Comeys group and the media on his side Different time. Looks like BC is now media bait as the Dems try to move on away from them. Still waiting to see where the new Dems are going the nut stuff is wearing thin, IMO.
Trump is nuts but you can't run a campaign on that. How about some positions on things? Volcanos have shoved him off the media a bit. May the lava flow and make Big island bigger. And nobody killed. And may they be told you can't re bopuild on an active volcano
Rebuild.
Unlike Clinton
His campaign was pretty nutty, and he won! Repeat... Trump WON!!!
T is crazy like a fox. Lots has been done from taxes to the economy picking up, you keep seeing employment improvement especially for blacks, North Korea, Moving the embassy in Israel as a few predecessors promised, Trade looks crazy right now but his methods have worked so far, Iran deal coming undone as it should have never been made. Others so I would say the crazy man is getting things done, like them or not. IMO
Kind of nuts to rebuild on an active volcano. =;0>
He can be your president, but he's not mine
He didn't win me.
Dear Glos, please resurect the Bull Moose Party.
Unfortunately Obummer was our president. About the only thing good he did in my view was he didn't screw up the Bin laden shooting. ;)
Still amazing to me the blindness of partisanship.
LBD,
Go look at those "how many people getting UI" numbers I posted.
Obama entered at a moment of economic crisis - the ship turned around - and he left with the economy in vastly better shape than when he entered. Yet, you cannot see/admit that he had anything to do with that.
Yet, you give Trump credit for the current economy - based off what?
I don't deny the economy at this moment is great. But, please give me the "what he did" that changed it.
Nothing,
I aim my electronic tentCles at him and stir up his dark matter.
Obummer inherited the mess and it was a big one constructed over a long time from both parties. Obummer did little to help but push his agenda of hate and division. His promise of helping blacks did nothing. Green energy is a flop except funding his friends failures to be bought up by mostly foreign companies. O passed or appointed people who caused ridiculous standards that killed some businesses. Sold Uranium forcing his green energy policy. Coal had locally effected the UP railroad who was big in hauling coal and the Wyoming coal industry, T got tax cuts passed for a better business climate and jobs hopefully of better quality. O was the worst president in my life time. Hillary would have been worse. T was not my choice nor did I think he would get elected. I voted against Hillary and to my surprise he won and is doing a very good job. Data does not set attitudes and set hope for a better future. IMO :)
O was thwarted at every step. It's a wonder he accomplished anything. And now we have someone who thinks he can pardon himself.
Good Morning! ☀️
Talking heads seem to think he can’t be charge as it’s Congresses job to handle, so a play on words. T hasn’t had the easiest time either. Old guard running for the door and the last spending bill didn’t get his wishes accomplished, then the Dems pretty much voting the party line. Mid term election will cement grid lock or may support T. Stay tuned for the next episode.
What Obama did do was run a playbook almost identical to Reagan's in response to an economic crisis.
He massively cut taxes, (40% of the Stimulus package was tax cuts).
He drove up Federal spending, (the other 60% of the stimulus package - though the bulk of what actually got spent was shoring up the gaping funding holes in state Medicaid funds).
But, he did it starting from a far less advantageous point.
Reagan had interest rates that would eventually peak at 20% - which allowed him a lot of room to drop (and thereby encourage business spending). Fed funds rate hit zero in December before he took office.
But, the combo of cut taxes and raise spending was precisely what Reagan did. Then he stepped back and let the economy recover. And unemployment recovered at a slightly faster pace under Obama than under Reagan (some mitigating factors in both eras - but nonetheless true).
Not saying he didn't have some blunders - but I cannot fathom the logic that ranks Obama behind "W" as worst President since WWII. My personal fav President in my life remains Bush Sr. My opinion, Obama was a solid orator, meh President, whose screw ups were relatively minor (especially compared to "W"). But, in the end, the country ended up VASTLY better off after his 8 years than when he entered.
Bush one wasn't that great. He was a globalist that accelerated a lot of today's problems. Bowing to world pressures by not finishing the war in Iraq. Preaching no new taxes really got him. Bush two needed to finish Iraq but did a horrible job of it and let the economy run wild out of control from deregulation started by Bush one signed off by Clinton. Not a real favorite in the bunch for me. So I am not Republican hack but a fiscal conservative. That was the old world of responsibility. IMO
Mish has a nice hit piece on wages and if you can believe the data.
T did find a unique way of implementing "fiscal responsibility". There are so many unappointed federal positions that it's amazing some of the departments are still running at all. If you don't like the mission of the parks department or the EPA or the justice department, just don't hire any staff. Bonus points for then being able to blame the agency for failing to do their job.
Agreed, Ruby.
Bush Sr. was the one who implemented PAYGO - the underlying change to Washington budget process that allowed Clinton to erase the Reagan deficits and leave office turning over budget surpluses to "W" (which he destroyed, along with PAYGO).
For a fiscal conservative, who could you possibly like better than Bush I?
Yes, the "no new taxes" pledge bit him in the a** ... precisely because he ultimately did the ACTUAL fiscal conservative thing - and worked to fix things, instead of doing the politically expedient things and simply kicking the can down the road.
I completely disagree with your assessment on the choice to leave Saddam in power. We've actually gotten to see the results of the path of the "W" nation building attempt - and it's been a disaster. You admit as much.
Never said leave Saddam in power, W made a big mess of it IMO. Clinton did nothing meaningful with Iraq. He wanted his own war in the history books. Leaving W to deal with it in the same manor W dumped the recession on O. Every party tries to erase the others accomplishments good or bad. They all want to control the cookie jar and over spend it they way they want. O left T with more international messes then anybody. People got sick of it and now we have T. IMO
Cookie jar? Given to rich because they deserve it. US Deeper in debt than ever?
IMHO.
Rob Dawg has cookies?
New post!
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