Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Thursday, November 01, 2018
Huck Finn Lives
Check out this Craigslist since deleted post.
If you put in a couple thousand dollars of labor I will let you cart away the trash so you can pay to have it dumped.
Any resemblance to modern urban redevelopment plans is coincidental.
As far as I know, we are not at war with Mexico. Mexico tried to keep them from crossing their southern border. Maybe we should sent troops to Nicaragua to control their gangs, right after we figure out how to control our own gangs.
The outcome from a host of unintended consequences.
Back in the '80s, many school systems in California refused to accept "unaccompanied minor" immigrants awaiting determination of their cases as refugees or asylum. So, these kids were basically left on the street to fend for themselves - and for self-protection, they formed gangs (to protect themselves from the other pre-existing homegrown American gangs).
In a number of cases, we deported some of the top members of MS-13 (multiple times!?!) ... which actually resulted in them recruiting additional gang members from their home countries.
This is one reason I personally have great sympathy for the women and children that are specifically attempting to flee MS-13 blighted countries.
There may be very little that the right and left can agree on - but I'm pretty sure there is near universal agreement that MS-13 is a major problem - regardless of which country they are operating in.
There are interesting articles in Scientific American about how inequaliy In income causes more illness, which also affects well off people negatively although not so much. People at the low end of the totem pole have shorter telomeres,
National Guard deployed about 2100 to the boarder in April and I find no news of them leaving.
We are not at war with Mexico or any other Central American countries but this caravan is at war with us. Mexico did a piss poor job of trying to stop these invaders as they knew the US was the destination and there is a lot of money to be made off of them. Mexico is a piss poor friend of ours.
If MS-13 was created in California by illegals or anchor babies supports not letting any of them in.
The outcome from a host of unintended consequences.
Back in the '80s, many school systems in California refused to accept "unaccompanied minor" immigrants awaiting determination of their cases as refugees or asylum. So, these kids were basically left on the street to fend for themselves - and for self-protection, they formed gangs (to protect themselves from the other pre-existing homegrown American gangs)."
One more example of how nobody in today's buyer (or seller!) pool has ever had to fix a house themselves.
Back in the day, most people had worked in the trades at some point in their life. Not today. Makes a difference for the fixer listings - very few buyers!
You reduce the price to the point when it's about the point to pay the fixers, But you know The hub will diagnose electrical problems and make sure the electrian does at least that. I used to paint and the kids son and friend, painted, when we moved in here. In the day of tubes, he would look at our old broken tv and say it needs An xyz tube. And lo, it was fixed. Can't do that anymore.
Sometimes fixer uppers are in hideous condition, sometmes not. Mine, when we bought had owners with awful taste, so all surfaces needed replacing. 20 years on, we are replacing the bathrooms up stairs, with their hideous dark wallpaper. And the house more than doubled in price since we bought.
CR thinks things are just peachy keen. Mostly. U6 down below 7, u3 to 3.5 or less, black to 5%, wage growth to6% or more, theres a lot to make up for. Then it would be peachy keen. IMO.
CR is right - at least in the sense that current employment numbers are some of the best in history. The running mantra with most of the stats is we haven't seen numbers like these since the 60s in most cases ... not during the best of the Reagan or Clinton or W. years.
But, little emphasis should EVER be placed on individual month totals when it comes to employment. The trend is far more important.
And the trends are good. U6 is down from 8.0 a year ago to 7.4 today. U3 is down from 4.1 to 3.7. Mind you, for 6 months (last Oct. to this March), U3 was stuck at 4.1.
The thing is, your suggested targets are completely arbitrary. If I were to say U3 needs to be 1% and U6 2% ... it wouldn't be based on anything objective. We can ONLY judge how "good" a number is in relation to historical norms.
And there is a real problem with people (regardless of ideology), changing what is "good" or "bad" depending on if "their" people are in office. In 2009, when U3 hit 10 and U6 hit 17 ... what would constitute a "good" U3 and U6 in that context? How much progress is reasonable in 4 years? In 8?
When Romney was running - U3 was about 8% and he promised his policies would get it below 6%, and his supporters cheered. Well, when Trump was elected, (Nov of 2016), U3 was 4.6 - but there certainly wasn't anyone on the right voicing an opinion that Obama had done a good job with the economy.
I myself am waiting for the Bull Moose Party, or the like. I saw in a clip about T, Gen. Kelly actually cringing down under Ts force. How does he do that.
A new party is scary as thy can be a diversion and split another party's vote. T along with Bernie Sanders did way better by clinging to the existing party's. T is very little old boy Repub and it worked. I never thought he would pull it off and now like a lot of what he does, not the way he says it. Crazy like a fox. IMO
Ghetto violence is the norm and not daily news. It loses it's effect if reported regularly. It is good to use it when the political effect is needed. The UK outlawed guns and have had a knife problem since. The defective mind it the main problem.
Interest rates are rising and the means soon house prices must fall.
LBD got the point -- lives only matter to the left when it suits their political views to sensationalize their loss.
Chicago is one of the most corrupt, violent and fiscally disastrous cities in the country, but it's also (inconveniently) a long-term Democratic stronghold with stiff gun control laws. Can't draw attention to such things as they don't fit the promoted narrative.
>The UK outlawed guns and have had a knife problem since. The defective mind it the main problem.
True, but you gotta admit it's a lot easier to shoot someone than to attack with a knife. And on the defense side, it's easier to respond and defend against a knife attacker than a gun attacker.
EJ, I agree but UK homicides have not gone down according to some non government data but over all have gone up. I remember years ago EBay UK stopped the sale of knives due to the problem. Bombs are still a untapped method that I think would rise and be more effective. The insane will prevail. The only way IMO is defend yourself or have active security, especially if a group known to hate could attack.
Do you think mental health care would help? What if prisoners were thoroughly examined and absolutely forced to take appropriate drugs, with due attention to side effects. There actually are a lot of treatments that that really are helpful. I know ordinary non criminal people who have taken them successfully. Of course nobody wants to be nice to them even if it would save lives in the long run And now we have a worse drug than oxy
LL, Very complex issue mental health care and the effectiveness. Drugs appear to be a cause of some insane actions but most never act out and benefit from them. I have no clue as to how we can find these people and what can be done with them. Locking up people who appear normal even if a little strange can lead us down a scary path.
The Florida HS shooter had an extensive rap sheet and very well know he was likely to go off as he did. The real failure was the school, legal system and the police. The gun was the choice of weapon. Even Barney Fife froze when he was needed.
So we have tools but it appears no one wants the headache of being responsible to act. Like I said it is very complex. IMO.
I thought I was leaving wells fargo when I refinanced my home loan. They bought out the newly refinanced loan from the refinancer at the new, lower interest rate.
Well, my final house projection is: (based mostly on the generic ballot)
233 (D) - 202 (R)
538 is about the same (center point of its probabilities is 232-203).
RCP doesn't have an actual projection - but defines has 'settled' 202-194 with 39 toss-ups. If you split the toss-ups 20/19, that works out to:
222-213 dems.
Nobody is projecting the Dems to take the Senate. Most projections actually have the Dems losing 1 or 2 seats.
Of course, there could always be a systemic problem with the polls that could shift things 2-3 points in EITHER direction, which could drastically change the results - from the Republicans barely hold the house, and pick up multiple Senate seats - to an absolute blood bath for the Red team. Though even in the blood bath scenario the Dems winning 51 seats in the Senate is about the limit of what they could do, given the map they're up against.
In 2016 there was a "REGIONAL" systemic issue in the rust belt with the polling models, though the national projections ended up being pretty much spot on.
My sense for this cycle is that the pollsters will likely be pretty close.
The "hopeful" variable for the Red team is the generic ballot still had a larger than normal "not saying" at the end (7.5%), and the same was true back in 2016 ... where an overly large portion of the final slosh of decided-at-last-second voters went with Trump.
The "hopeful" variable for the Blue time is that while the aggregate generic ballot totals have been pretty steady for the last month, even as the 'not saying' portion has been shrinking - the single pollster who consistently went against the grain in 2016, and picked Trump (USC Dornsife/LA Times) is again something of an outlier - projecting a much wider generic ballot win for the Dems (+15) than the aggregate (+8).
Generally I'm in favor of divided government. When one party holds too many levers bad things happen, Obamacare being the most recent example (but there are plenty of Rep ones as well). The more gridlock we have the fewer things they're likely to screw up.
That said, I don't think most pollsters learned anything from 2016 just like most economists haven't learned anything from 2009.
66 comments:
Could there be asbestos in the brick and mortar? Enviroterrorist need to know? :)
"The bricks are worth a bit"???
I would suspect if he advertised on some right-wing sites, he could sell them as Free Wall Building Material!
Some people have more time then money and like old stuff. They could sell them to a rich fool for quite a profit.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dog-shoots-owner-while-hunting-still-a-good-dog/
Dog SHOOTS man.
Sure, the dog "may" have had a license - but I'm betting no background check was done. Part Rottwiler ... gotta have ties to some Neo-Nazi group.
Hehehe.
It's the Army being sent, not the national guard to the border.
I think the Mexicans would object if we shot into their territory.
Thousands of years of good PR about being "Man's Best Friend" ... shot to hell in one moment.
More ammunition for the anti-gun crowd. Can't use that old line "... people shoot people" any more.
I bet this will trigger investigations into dog adoption laws. From now on we need to make sure we only allow adoption of the highest caliber puppies.
As far as I know, we are not at war with Mexico. Mexico tried to keep them from crossing their southern border.
Maybe we should sent troops to Nicaragua to control their gangs, right after we figure out how to control our own gangs.
Actually MS-13 originated as a California gang.
The outcome from a host of unintended consequences.
Back in the '80s, many school systems in California refused to accept "unaccompanied minor" immigrants awaiting determination of their cases as refugees or asylum. So, these kids were basically left on the street to fend for themselves - and for self-protection, they formed gangs (to protect themselves from the other pre-existing homegrown American gangs).
In a number of cases, we deported some of the top members of MS-13 (multiple times!?!) ... which actually resulted in them recruiting additional gang members from their home countries.
This is one reason I personally have great sympathy for the women and children that are specifically attempting to flee MS-13 blighted countries.
There may be very little that the right and left can agree on - but I'm pretty sure there is near universal agreement that MS-13 is a major problem - regardless of which country they are operating in.
There are interesting articles in Scientific American about how inequaliy
In income causes more illness, which also affects well off people negatively although not so much. People at the low end of the totem pole have shorter telomeres,
So we kinda deserve this.
Mr. Mkt is up again.
Yeah, Liz. Short-sighted choices lacking in compassion or humanity.
Self-fulfilling prophecy in my opinion. You refuse to treat people humanely for long enough and they will eventually become inhuman.
National Guard deployed about 2100 to the boarder in April and I find no news of them leaving.
We are not at war with Mexico or any other Central American countries but this caravan is at war with us. Mexico did a piss poor job of trying to stop these invaders as they knew the US was the destination and there is a lot of money to be made off of them. Mexico is a piss poor friend of ours.
If MS-13 was created in California by illegals or anchor babies supports not letting any of them in.
Anybody want to make look on the loss of the House?
Who were left to roam the streets.
LBD, 20 bucks to your favorite charity?
Oh, and lots of people like olde bricks.
LL, My answer was to " Blogger Firemane said...
Actually MS-13 originated as a California gang.
The outcome from a host of unintended consequences.
Back in the '80s, many school systems in California refused to accept "unaccompanied minor" immigrants awaiting determination of their cases as refugees or asylum. So, these kids were basically left on the street to fend for themselves - and for self-protection, they formed gangs (to protect themselves from the other pre-existing homegrown American gangs)."
Yep.
Also anybody who proposes to walk 1500 or 2000 miles to get non death for their kids and themselves is not lazy.
Anyway 20 bucks to your favorite charity, LBD? Or anybody here?
In fact, a lot of people scavage beautiful olde building for stuff that just isn't made any more. As museums do.
Nite all.
One more example of how nobody in today's buyer (or seller!) pool has ever had to fix a house themselves.
Back in the day, most people had worked in the trades at some point in their life. Not today. Makes a difference for the fixer listings - very few buyers!
You reduce the price to the point when it's about the point to pay the fixers, But you know The hub will diagnose electrical problems and make sure the electrian does at least that.
I used to paint and the kids son and friend, painted, when we moved in here. In the day of tubes, he would look at our old broken tv and say it needs An xyz tube. And lo, it was fixed. Can't do that anymore.
Good Morning!
Twenty buck for what?
On the road today may check in if the cell connection is good.
If the Repubs lose the house you pay my charity and vice versa.
Employment up 250k.
Sometimes fixer uppers are in hideous condition, sometmes not. Mine, when we bought had owners with awful taste, so all surfaces needed replacing. 20 years on, we are replacing the bathrooms up stairs, with their hideous dark wallpaper. And the house more than doubled in price since we bought.
CR thinks things are just peachy keen.
Mostly. U6 down below 7, u3 to 3.5 or less, black to 5%, wage growth to6% or more, theres a lot to make up for. Then it would be peachy keen. IMO.
Oh, and that imaginary wage growth should be confined to the lower 80 %.
Such dreams.
CR is right - at least in the sense that current employment numbers are some of the best in history. The running mantra with most of the stats is we haven't seen numbers like these since the 60s in most cases ... not during the best of the Reagan or Clinton or W. years.
But, little emphasis should EVER be placed on individual month totals when it comes to employment. The trend is far more important.
And the trends are good. U6 is down from 8.0 a year ago to 7.4 today.
U3 is down from 4.1 to 3.7. Mind you, for 6 months (last Oct. to this March), U3 was stuck at 4.1.
The thing is, your suggested targets are completely arbitrary. If I were to say U3 needs to be 1% and U6 2% ... it wouldn't be based on anything objective. We can ONLY judge how "good" a number is in relation to historical norms.
And there is a real problem with people (regardless of ideology), changing what is "good" or "bad" depending on if "their" people are in office. In 2009, when U3 hit 10 and U6 hit 17 ... what would constitute a "good" U3 and U6 in that context? How much progress is reasonable in 4 years? In 8?
When Romney was running - U3 was about 8% and he promised his policies would get it below 6%, and his supporters cheered. Well, when Trump was elected, (Nov of 2016), U3 was 4.6 - but there certainly wasn't anyone on the right voicing an opinion that Obama had done a good job with the economy.
Yeah, they are arbitrary. But they would make me happy if nobody else.
I am not a Republican and I don't like loonies. So I wouldn't bet on the Republicans. I don't think either party is worth wasting money on.
Anybody could have grown an economy off of the bottom. The question is did he do a good job? IMO, not near good enough.
Which he?
I myself am waiting for the Bull Moose Party, or the like. I saw in a clip about T, Gen. Kelly actually cringing down under Ts force. How does he do that.
Maybe the bricks offer was deleted because they sols.
Sold
Good morning!
He is Obummer, referring to Fires comment.
A new party is scary as thy can be a diversion and split another party's vote. T along with Bernie Sanders did way better by clinging to the existing party's. T is very little old boy Repub and it worked. I never thought he would pull it off and now like a lot of what he does, not the way he says it. Crazy like a fox. IMO
Now a yoga "shooting" only 2 ladies killed.
Sad, Time to arm up.
New business opportunity!!! Yoga pants with a holster!!!!
Per HeyJackass.com the latest Chicago figures...
November to Date
Shot & Killed: 5
Shot & Wounded: 13
Total Shot: 18
Total Homicides: 6
Isn't it interesting what *doesn't* show up in the news.
What are you referring to?
Good Morning!
Ghetto violence is the norm and not daily news. It loses it's effect if reported regularly. It is good to use it when the political effect is needed. The UK outlawed guns and have had a knife problem since. The defective mind it the main problem.
Interest rates are rising and the means soon house prices must fall.
DD,
https://www.amazon.com/AC-UNDERCOVER-Concealed-Carry-Pants/dp/B076CKV81K
LBD got the point -- lives only matter to the left when it suits their political views to sensationalize their loss.
Chicago is one of the most corrupt, violent and fiscally disastrous cities in the country, but it's also (inconveniently) a long-term Democratic stronghold with stiff gun control laws. Can't draw attention to such things as they don't fit the promoted narrative.
>The UK outlawed guns and have had a knife problem since. The defective mind it the main problem.
True, but you gotta admit it's a lot easier to shoot someone than to attack with a knife.
And on the defense side, it's easier to respond and defend against a knife attacker than a gun attacker.
Agreed: but it's also a beautiful city.
Yep.
Skelitor or someone allied reduced mental health service.
EJ, I agree but UK homicides have not gone down according to some non government data but over all have gone up. I remember years ago EBay UK stopped the sale of knives due to the problem. Bombs are still a untapped method that I think would rise and be more effective. The insane will prevail. The only way IMO is defend yourself or have active security, especially if a group known to hate could attack.
Do you think mental health care would help?
What if prisoners were thoroughly examined and absolutely forced to take appropriate drugs, with due attention to side effects. There actually are a lot of treatments that that really are helpful. I know ordinary non criminal people who have taken them successfully. Of course nobody wants to be nice to them even if it would save lives in the long run
And now we have a worse drug than oxy
LL, Very complex issue mental health care and the effectiveness. Drugs appear to be a cause of some insane actions but most never act out and benefit from them. I have no clue as to how we can find these people and what can be done with them. Locking up people who appear normal even if a little strange can lead us down a scary path.
Yep. Maybe test who are going to work with kids or old people? Or people who have runs with the law, but not so bad to be jailed?
Good Morning!
The Florida HS shooter had an extensive rap sheet and very well know he was likely to go off as he did. The real failure was the school, legal system and the police. The gun was the choice of weapon. Even Barney Fife froze when he was needed.
So we have tools but it appears no one wants the headache of being responsible to act. Like I said it is very complex. IMO.
In celebration of our relative lack of violent revolution and gernerally civil disagreement and discourse, Happy Guy Fawkes day everyone.
Ahh, the anniversary of my leaving Wells Fargo for a Credit Union.
Congrats
I thought I was leaving wells fargo when I refinanced my home loan. They bought out the newly refinanced loan from the refinancer at the new, lower interest rate.
I once refinanced soley for the purpose of getting away from Wells Fargo. Two weeks later Wells Fargo bought the paper. Grrrr.
New Post.
Well, my final house projection is: (based mostly on the generic ballot)
233 (D) - 202 (R)
538 is about the same (center point of its probabilities is 232-203).
RCP doesn't have an actual projection - but defines has 'settled' 202-194 with 39 toss-ups. If you split the toss-ups 20/19, that works out to:
222-213 dems.
Nobody is projecting the Dems to take the Senate. Most projections actually have the Dems losing 1 or 2 seats.
Of course, there could always be a systemic problem with the polls that could shift things 2-3 points in EITHER direction, which could drastically change the results - from the Republicans barely hold the house, and pick up multiple Senate seats - to an absolute blood bath for the Red team. Though even in the blood bath scenario the Dems winning 51 seats in the Senate is about the limit of what they could do, given the map they're up against.
In 2016 there was a "REGIONAL" systemic issue in the rust belt with the polling models, though the national projections ended up being pretty much spot on.
My sense for this cycle is that the pollsters will likely be pretty close.
The "hopeful" variable for the Red team is the generic ballot still had a larger than normal "not saying" at the end (7.5%), and the same was true back in 2016 ... where an overly large portion of the final slosh of decided-at-last-second voters went with Trump.
The "hopeful" variable for the Blue time is that while the aggregate generic ballot totals have been pretty steady for the last month, even as the 'not saying' portion has been shrinking - the single pollster who consistently went against the grain in 2016, and picked Trump (USC Dornsife/LA Times) is again something of an outlier - projecting a much wider generic ballot win for the Dems (+15) than the aggregate (+8).
I predict the sun will come up on Wednesday and the circus will go on with little respect to what the country wants and needs.
Generally I'm in favor of divided government. When one party holds too many levers bad things happen, Obamacare being the most recent example (but there are plenty of Rep ones as well). The more gridlock we have the fewer things they're likely to screw up.
That said, I don't think most pollsters learned anything from 2016 just like most economists haven't learned anything from 2009.
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