Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.
Saturday, December 16, 2006
Starter Home Price Revealed
272 Grandview Circ Camarillo, CA 93010 MLS ID#: 612689 $548,000
Is it any wonder people think we are overpriced? $670/sf. What are people thinking?
9 comments:
Anonymous
said...
It isn't going to get any better over the next 20 years - until the baby boomers start dying out in large numbers.
The next generation - Generation Y - is as big as the boomer generation (74 million) and their eldest members are turning 25 this year. The median age of first-time homebuyers is 32. So sometime in the next 10 years a feverish real estate frenzy will be ignitied. The peak birth year for Gen Y is 1990. They'll turn 32 in 16 years, meaning the boom they trigger will last for at least 20 years.
How's the neighborhood for that house? It sounds ripe for a teardown or massive remodeling. Very few people would actually pay that much just for the existing living space.
Anon 12:27, The myth of demographic pressure has been busted. From school enrollment to average occupancy, there won't be anything like what we saw with the boomers.
AZDude, You may even be right on the final selling price. 2 Hispanic familes might take out a suicide loan as one way for this pig to sell. Speculators might still be around. There's absolutely nothing to recommend this property.
Astrid, Thanks for stopping by. The neighborhood is old and cramped, on the wrong side of the tracks. There's no point in a teardown as anything more would stick out and with all the restrictive rules you can just pay the same $800k and get turnkey and a better neighborhood.
Astrid,... we disagree? No, we have reasoned discussions on subjects of merit and present rational arguments with dissimilar conclusions. Wiat.. we do disagree. I run a pretty lame website. It's selfish and opaque about what I'm doing. I don't make it easy to follow and I do very little to police the replies.
That said, yeah, Casey is one specatular Gen Y nega-hero. You wonder if he can screw up any worse and he never dissapoints. at the same time he has a genius (of sorts) for pushing peoples' buttons.
Next week a house at the other end of the zip code. Yeah, did I mention? This was one of the cheapest I could find for good old 93010. The follow up will actually be one of my neighbors.
That house is in one of the least desirable areas. A bit north into barry st gets worse and a bit more hood, well by smallish suburb standards at least.
When I was growing up the kids from that neighborhood were all reduced lunches while the kids from the northern part of town (the estates) were driving beemers. Half mil eh, guess there's a greater fool.
In the states with low birth rates and emigrating populations - Massachusettes and New York are prime examples, you wouldn't notice. But in states with growing populations, you DID notice, especially with school enrollments. The numbers are the numbers,nationally: 74 million births from 1981 to 2000. They'll have to live somewhere. And they will reignite the real estate boom in a few short years.
The eldest boomer is turning 60 this year. Most people live to somewhere between age 75 and 85, so you won't be seeing an uptick in the death numbers for another 15 to 20 years. The peak birth year for boomers is 1957. They're turning 49 this year, and have another 25 to 35 years.
Then I must disagree! I may not agree with everything you write on this site, but I do enjoy reading much of it. Your sense of humor and tenacity really comes through.
9 comments:
It isn't going to get any better over the next 20 years - until the baby boomers start dying out in large numbers.
The next generation - Generation Y - is as big as the boomer generation (74 million) and their eldest members are turning 25 this year. The median age of first-time homebuyers is 32. So sometime in the next 10 years a feverish real estate frenzy will be ignitied. The peak birth year for Gen Y is 1990. They'll turn 32 in 16 years, meaning the boom they trigger will last for at least 20 years.
How's the neighborhood for that house? It sounds ripe for a teardown or massive remodeling. Very few people would actually pay that much just for the existing living space.
Anon 12:27,
The myth of demographic pressure has been busted. From school enrollment to average occupancy, there won't be anything like what we saw with the boomers.
AZDude,
You may even be right on the final selling price. 2 Hispanic familes might take out a suicide loan as one way for this pig to sell. Speculators might still be around. There's absolutely nothing to recommend this property.
Astrid,
Thanks for stopping by. The neighborhood is old and cramped, on the wrong side of the tracks. There's no point in a teardown as anything more would stick out and with all the restrictive rules you can just pay the same $800k and get turnkey and a better neighborhood.
M. Cote,
:) We may not have much in agreement, but we can agree that the RE market is heading for some punishment and that you run a great website.
Oh, also that Casey Serin is just too good of a trainwreck to ignore. (even if it takes a good shower to feel clean afterwards).
And on the house. Yeesh! $3,000 a month to live in squalor.
Astrid,... we disagree? No, we have reasoned discussions on subjects of merit and present rational arguments with dissimilar conclusions. Wiat.. we do disagree. I run a pretty lame website. It's selfish and opaque about what I'm doing. I don't make it easy to follow and I do very little to police the replies.
That said, yeah, Casey is one specatular Gen Y nega-hero. You wonder if he can screw up any worse and he never dissapoints. at the same time he has a genius (of sorts) for pushing peoples' buttons.
Next week a house at the other end of the zip code. Yeah, did I mention? This was one of the cheapest I could find for good old 93010. The follow up will actually be one of my neighbors.
I grew up in camarillo, 1980-98 give or take.
That house is in one of the least desirable areas. A bit north into barry st gets worse and a bit more hood, well by smallish suburb standards at least.
When I was growing up the kids from that neighborhood were all reduced lunches while the kids from the northern part of town (the estates) were driving beemers. Half mil eh, guess there's a greater fool.
>>At 3:59 PM, Robert Coté said... The myth of demographic pressure has been busted. From school enrollment to average occupancy, there won't be anything like what we saw with the boomers.<<
In the states with low birth rates and emigrating populations - Massachusettes and New York are prime examples, you wouldn't notice. But in states with growing populations, you DID notice, especially with school enrollments. The numbers are the numbers,nationally: 74 million births from 1981 to 2000. They'll have to live somewhere. And they will reignite the real estate boom in a few short years.
The eldest boomer is turning 60 this year. Most people live to somewhere between age 75 and 85, so you won't be seeing an uptick in the death numbers for another 15 to 20 years. The peak birth year for boomers is 1957. They're turning 49 this year, and have another 25 to 35 years.
More people means more demand for homes.
M. Cote,
Then I must disagree! I may not agree with everything you write on this site, but I do enjoy reading much of it. Your sense of humor and tenacity really comes through.
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