Friday, April 04, 2008

Why Greg Swann is Silly


Submitted for your consideration HomeVestors Names Top 10 Cities for Real Estate Investing for First Quarter of 2008
DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--HomeVestors® of America, Inc., the company famous for its "We Buy Ugly Houses"® billboards and America’s #1 Home Buyer, has named the top 10 markets for real estate investing in the first quarter of 2008. They are as follows:

1. Dallas, Texas
2. Houston, Texas
3. Atlanta, Georgia
4. Fort Worth, Texas
5. St. Louis, Missouri
6. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
7. San Antonio, Texas
8. Denver, Colorado
9. Minneapolis, Minnesota
10. Phoenix, Arizona
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The red line is Phoenix "lower tier" pricing. The black line is the composite for #3 Atlanta for reference.

And now Phoenix data shameless stolen from our good friend ocrenter at BMIT:


Does anybody want to catch that knife? Come on, everybody who bought 2004 or before can eat your lunch and walk away with change.

21 comments:

wagga said...

That was the first quarter. How do you think Q2 will look?

Rob Dawg said...

Q2 '08 = Wide World of Sports Cliff Diving

w said...

I am getting more afraid by the week.

The worst part is that the denial is going to make this last forever.

Welcome to the lost decade.

serinitis said...

That top 10 list wasn't an attempt to catch a falling knife. It was an attempt to get someone else to catch their falling knife

H Simpson said...

No, they want someone to pull the knife out of their wrist before they bleed to death.

With the employment numbers going south faster than a pickup of illegals headed home cause there is no work, I think reality will hit fast and soon.

Rob Dawg said...

We are setting up for the equivalent of a bear market rally/head fake. Prices plummet and sales stay soft into summer when the bulls take a breath and say "wow, that was fast and deep and now it's over." I figure by the May data all the non-bubble areas wil be surprised to discover we are all bubble areas. Even Seattle and Boulder and Austin and Charlotte.

Casey Serin said...

When do you think investors should get back in the real estate game? I'm anxiously awaiting the day prices bottom out -- I've got around negative $500,000 burning a hole in my pocket!!

In any event, while I wait for home prices to hit bottom, I'll be on the prowl for a nice guy who can tap my bottom... :)

Property Flopper said...

Off topic, but amusing:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/g/a/2008/04/04/carollloyd.DTL

Don't stay together for the kids, stay together because you simply can't sell the house and neither one of you can afford the albatros.

1.44MB said...

Rob - what source did you pull the CS chart tool from? It does of course appear far too informative & suspiciously user friendly to be a free but I live in hope.

Rob Dawg said...

Give away all my secrets? Sure:

http://www.macromarkets.com/csi_housing/tools/Chart_Tool_Web.xls

Yes, free. Enjoy.

1.44MB said...

Thanks for the link Rob you're a star.

Could Kathy Neilsen be on her way to pick up Caseys most-hated-blogger crown?

http://kathyneilsen.blogspot.com/2008/02/buying-new-home-then-letting-old-go.html

Moral Hazard ain't nuthin.

Buzz Saw said...

There are "bright spots", I heard a Realtwhore® say so on the teevee. Only she can see them though.

w said...

You really have to look at your local market. A Realtor(tm) can help you see if buying is right for you. On average the price of homes doubles every 10 years. If you are lucky it may happen in two.

Buzz Saw said...

Check out the next KC Serinesque grifter. He recently put $500k on his heloc & stashed the cash. He plans to buy it back from the bank for $100k. Brilliant! The system is doomed.

BJ said...

@Rob Dawg

Your link to www.businesswire.com is messed up. you probably wanted:

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080403005117&newsLang=en

@buzz saw
HELOCs are recourse..Not as simple as walking away from. He is not completely accurate on his statements. The real question is loan loss forgiveness and 1099'ing as income. This year the 1099 is forgiven. The second problem is that he is committing fraud. He can pay but won't. If the HELOC holder figures out he has the money somewhere, it will go to court and attach the account.

Lou Minatti said...

The second problem is that he is committing fraud.

I realize that in sane times that would be a problem. But there are about 3 million people in line ahead of him. It's time to face the fact that the vast majority of fraudsters and con artists will never be held liable, if for no other reason that we don't have the resources to go after all of them.

Bill said...

Doesn't matter what's recourse if you pick up and move to another state, one that doesn't allow garnishments.

Like Tejas, for example.

Buzz Saw said...

It is the perfect scam. I wish I could steal heloc money like that. He will never have to pay it back, he will never be prosecuted, he will just blend in with all the Casey Serins of the world and the bank won't go to the trouble of looking for anyone's hidden assets. It is the perfect crime.

AnonyRuss said...

Greg Swann provides this sound advice on Phoenix RE in 2008:

"If you've been looking for the bottom of the Valley's real-estate market, it might well be upon us."

"It could be we'll be back to normal inventory levels fairly soon."

"If you don't have to move now, you might be better off staying put for a year or two."

http://www.azcentral.com/community/glendale/articles/2008/03/21/20080321gl-swann0322.html

H Simpson said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
H Simpson said...

.... and if you think good thoughts, a pair of wings might pop out of your butt and you can fly to work each day.


Judging by that graph, looks like a great time to be a FOR SALE sign painter. Where you go you get a spare 60,000 signs quick?

Just 10 weeks until reality hits for those who banked on 2008 being a better year to sell..

h.