Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Theme Song for Timmay

Who can take a mandate, sprinkle it with crap
Cover it with sub'sidies and a liquidity trap
The Timmay Man, oh the Timmay Man can
The Timmay Man can 'cause he mixes it with hope and makes the dollar seem safe

Who can take a bridge loan, wrap it in a TARP
Soak it in the Fed and play the taxpayer like a harp
The Timmay Man, the Timmay Man can
The Timmay Man can 'cause he pushes an agenda that makes the markets feel good

The Timmay Man says everything he speaks is satisfying and delicious
Now you talk about your entitlement wishes, you can even eat the dishes

Oh, who can take tomorrow's revenue, spend all now
Separate the sorrow and collect up all the bows
The Timmay Man, oh the Timmay Man can
The Timmay Man can 'cause he does what he's told to keep the world intact

a-Candy Man, a-Candy Man, a-Candy Man
Candy Man, a-Candy Man, a-Candy Man
Candy Man, a-Candy Man, a-Candy Man


Northern Renter said...

Let me be first to point out that, Tim's efforts to the contrary, the Dow seems to have left behind the strange attractors previously described in this blog.


PS Am partial to strange attractors myself.

Rob Dawg said...

Yes. Thanks for reminding us. In the comments last week I was absolute in my waving bye bye to the 8200 number.

Feb 06 - "Everyone enjoy the long expected, overdue bear market head fake. This is the end on my 8200 attractor. 7900 will be the new neighborhood until next big drop."

So? Waddaya think? Close?

For the longer perspective:
Jan 07 - "Flat to a slow grind down from today's close to the inauguration and one last euphoria defiant bounce then the market opens for 2009. Right back down to 8200 then long slow grinds with occasional stairsteps down. All the way down to 6800. It may go breathtakingly below that very briefly but 6800 will be the new gravity well."

Notice that there was no date attached to that big prediction.

Aaron said...

when was that prediction made Rob?

Aaron said...

nevermind. I believe you stated it Jan 7 2009? I think you meant no date for when we get down to 6800. I think we will get there slowly. we will pop off november's low for another quick headfake to 8,000 before heading back down and then slowly draining it down to 6800. I think we build support at 6500. So many more hedgies have to unwind.

Rob Dawg said...

Yep. Thanks for rereading before piling on.

11 days ago I let the 8200 attractor loose in favor of a temporary 7900 before the vague leg down. I was vague because I didn't know. Could have been the 300 points we see today or it could have been 1100 to 6800.

Let's be clear. I don't care. I'm not shorting or even in the stock market except most tangentially. That's my "advise." Stay away until rational behavior returns.

800 revisit? A bit high IMO but possible. Reason; at this point anybody smart who sees 7900 is going to pull the trigger. Just opinion.

Son of Brock Landers said...

i think something guiding the markets will be st barry's next steps in econ. the pork "stimulus" was a church fart. if pelosi-reid-obama push forward with card check and other protectionist moves, the markets won't react kindly.

wagga said...

My SWAG is a bottom of 6367.5 for the DJIA.

Like the Dawg, I'm not in the market.

Because we are at some kind of peak earnings of soon-to-be-retired boomers, the huge money flows into 401(k) thingies will cause a very steep recovery once bottom is reached. Confidence level of 0.125, so that's my farthings worth.

w said...

Until the 50 State capitals figure out how to get their budgets straight I would hold out on jumping into the markets at any price.

serinitis said...

State capitals get their budgets right??


Casey will repay every dirty penny before California does an honest budget.

Lou Minatti said...

I believe that he is commonly referred to nowadays as "Turbotax Tim."

Like many of you I haven't lost a centavo. I bailed out early and missed the last 10-15% run-up and now I am glad I didn't participate. Jeebus, we're at half-off now. I am thinking of shifting 10% of my nest egg into the markets, but my conscience right now is saying to me in a Clint Eastwood voice, "Do you feel lucky?"

It should be a very simple decision, really. If you think we're all fucked and we're in Great Depression 2 (per Barry Obama, who repeatedly said this in order to get Porkulus), stay out. If you think we will recover, we're close to some serious opportunities.

I can't decide.

Lost Cause said...

I thought of "Sugar, Sugar" by The Archies myself.

H Simpson said...


Could not say it better myself, so I will leave it to you.

Sitting here trying to decide if I should pull the trigger and buy stocks. How much lower can they go? P/Es look good, but Es are likely nosedive in the next couple of quarters as the slowdown comes in.

If I can get another 5% off in the next couple of weeks, I am heading back in with well capitalized companies, but only up to my waist...