Wednesday, February 08, 2017

Americans Moving at Historically Low Rates

I love the American Community Survey (ACS). Perhaps the most deep "dive worthy" public dataset we get from the Census. Let's just look at a few highlights including the post title. http://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2016/cb16-189.html • The percentage of Americans moving over a one-year period fell to an all time low in the United States to 11.2 percent in 2016, according to tables released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Here is what I wrote 11 years ago:
No matter how the pain is spread, there will be consumer pain. Likewise because of govt spending policies that resemble the proverbial cricket in summer we can expect massive deficits and even larger tax increases. I hope everyone likes their neighbors because nobody is moving for a very long time. The new immobility class has moved in to stay.
Other things I said weren't perfect but this was spot on. Back to the present. Nobody cares about 11 years ago as LLiz has noted on so many occasions. Memory fades. What does this mean for now? IMO • Among those who moved, 42.2 percent said they moved for a housing-related reason, such as wanting a new or better home/apartment. In comparison, 27.4 percent said they moved for a family-related reason, 20.2 percent said they moved for an employment-related reason, and 10.2 percent said they moved for some other reason. I imagine the 42.2% moving for housing reasons are experiencing rising rents or other income/outflow issues.

31 comments:

Lawyerliz said...

Thanks Rob. So that's every 9 years. This might cause deeper roots in the community, which would be a good thing!

Lawyerliz said...

This is far more interesting than lumber!

Lawyerliz said...

They ought to care, they just don't.

Rob Dawg said...

Yes, Liz this is in one aspect a "bad thing." Hard to build a sense of community with a transient population with little local history or ties.

Rob Dawg said...

Hey wait! I used to make piles of money with lumber futures. That was back in the old days when markets were logical.

Mike said...

Count me amongst those to be moving soon due to rising rents (though the rate of increase seem to be cooling off a bit lately)...

will be interesting to see what happens to housing up here if they clamp down on the H1B program...I would guesstimate my complex was 75% H1B's at this point last year..that seems to have slowed down also

Lawyerliz said...

One motivator to the son's moving is increases in rent in his complex. He thinks Tampa/st. Pete is in a bubble. But he really is moving because the new job promises to be more interesting, tho it is a lateral move

Lawyerliz said...

I don't have much of a feel for whether my area of Brevard is increasing in price or not. There are some commercial buildings going up and some staying vacant and talk of a medium sized subdivision. BUT we've been here for 20 years, and the prior south Dade house for 15. Transaction costs are expensive.

Lawyerliz said...

They tried to shut Liz Warren up, and boy, did it backfire

Mike said...

Another factor that will keep people from moving is if mortgage rates move back up to more historically "normal" levels (6-8%). Going to be hard for people to give up those 3-4% mortgages they are enjoying now..though theoretically prices should come down a bit to compensate...

Lawyerliz said...

Yep. However, buyers will have to adjust to the very idea of higher rates.

Rob Dawg said...

They tried to shut Liz Warren up, and boy, did it backfire

Remains to be seen. It was very much a shot across the bow. It clearly shocked the Democrats who honestly weren't acting like the minority party.

Rob Dawg said...

Going to be hard for people to give up those 3-4% mortgages they are enjoying now..though theoretically prices should come down a bit to compensate...

Good point. The alternative, which I expect, is boomers willing to accept 7-8% and self financing their homes.

Lawyerliz said...

Yep, if someone wanted me to finance my Tampa condo, I'd happily take 7 to 8% 30 years, Balloon in say 12.

Lawyerliz said...

We're mkt ever logical?

Lawyerliz said...

Were markets..

Mike said...

of course when mortgage rates hit 8%..cd's (risk free) will be 5-6%...so not exactly a slam dunk decision..

Lawyerliz said...

Nitey nite.

TJandTheBear said...

Apparently I'm a 10.2 percenter.

Lawyerliz said...

What's that?

Lawyerliz said...

What's that?

Lawyerliz said...

Exurb is getting lots of comments, CR is not phfttt.

Mike said...

I think 10.2 was the amount of rain Portland got yesterday...lol

Lawyerliz said...

!!!! Anybody drown?

Mike said...

crazy weather up here..8 inches of snow earlier in the week..which partially melted..then hard freeze overnight left everything coated in ice..

now in the middle of a "Pineapple express" event expected to drop about 5 inches of rain over three days or so...

next week looks nice though.. :)

Lawyerliz said...

Wow.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Back up and rolling, Thanks Rob. I don't really care for the format or some of the old noise makers at the other sites.

Lawyerliz said...

True, but I miss Jo and Outsider

Mike said...

welcome to the Mike & Liz morning talk show LBD..you can be the crazy sidekick/engineer...lol

Lawyerliz said...

Morning show. I like that. We can have cats wandering through.

W.C. Varones said...

Rising rates are a barrier to transacting as well.

Sellers have rates in the 3's. Buyers would get a rate in the 4's. Trading the house is destroying value (in addition to the Prop 13 step-up!).

If rates go significantly higher, buyers and sellers should work out creative rent-to-own agreements so that the 3% financing can stay in place.