Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Demographic Trends

My youngest needed a new take on an a classic image for art class.  This is what she came up with.

I will be using it as the tag graphic for future demographic posts for obvious reasons. 

• It is pretty.
• My kid did it.
but seroiusly,
• What better way to represent demographic trends? 

Click to see a larger version. 
Pew Research has an interesting article about what they call "unauthorized immigrants." 
Link:

20 metro areas are home to six-in-ten unauthorized immigrants in U.S.

 

 

81 comments:

Mike said...

I'm sure it is just a coincidence that those cities highlighted on the map also accounted for most of Hillary's votes...

Rob Dawg said...

Why did she win by 26 points in California?

http://www.fairus.org/publications/the-fiscal-burden-of-illegal-immigration-on-california-taxpayers

Follow the money.

Mike said...

it certainly would be interesting to run the California voting rolls thru the E-verify system and see what falls out...

Lawyerliz said...

Most of Miami' s immigrants are Cuban and therefore legal, I'd think.

LBD said...

Love the picture, first thought is swimming with the mermaids. Closest I got was surfing with the seals. Memories. :)

I don't call Denver Far East LA for nothing. Especially Aurora.

LBD said...

Wet foot dry foot from Clinton should have never happened.

Lawyerliz said...

I suggest that for the nonce ALL additional immigrant eviction efforts be focused on DC. They the congress persons can observe all the consequences up close and personal. So they can't say they didn't know.

Rob Dawg said...

If illegal immigrants were not counted when drawing congressional districts several currently serving would have lost reelection. Not because of illegal voting but because their districts would have had to encompass a more representative voting public.

Mike said...

surfing with the seals.

whatever you do..don't swim with the dolphins..

(theme from Deliverance plays in background)..

Mike said...

I think each states secretary of state should have to sign-off before each national election that their voter rolls have been checked against an "e-verify" type of database (managed by FedGov)..with auditable details available to the public.

Make it like CEO's/CFO's have to do with their GAAP financials..sign off with criminal penalties if they are later found to be false.

Rob Dawg said...

I've scuba dived with seals. Playful little pups that nip at your bubbles. No! Sea wolfs twice your weight. Only three things scarier I ever encountered more dangerous underwater were a pack of 'cuda, a pissed off moray eel and my incautious younger brother (while cave diving).

Mike said...

Most of Miami' s immigrants are Cuban and therefore legal, I'd think

looking at that map...apparently Pew Research disagrees with you

Lawyerliz said...

But it did, therefore they are legal

Lawyerliz said...

Yeah Just how many non Cubans can there b

Lawyerliz said...

Did they try to eat you?

Rob Dawg said...

They made it clear they would if they wanted.

Mike said...

I was reading the methodology behind estimating these numbers over at the Pew research site. Apparently they start with a census bureau survey..and then make all kinds of adjustments. Can't speak to the validity of the adjustments..but wouldn't you think that any voluntary survey of illegal immigrants (e.g. the Census bureau) would grossly understate the number??

After all..if you were in a country illegally..would you admit to such during a voluntary survey??

Mike said...

Yeah Just how many non Cubans can there b

well there are the folks from Latin America that cross over the Mexican border. I could see many of them ending up in Miami (heavily Hispanic culture)

Rob Dawg said...

Meta observation and apology.

Can anyone imagine conversations like we've been holding recently being allowed to continue on HCN and now MuddyEconomist? No, the insults and off topic and distractions would be all over this trying to stop rational discourse.

I apologize for taking so long to bring back this alternative.

Lawyerliz said...

No prob. Just peep it up. And thx.

Lawyerliz said...

Keep. Hahahaha. Snort.

Maddened by cle courses. Just 4 more credits to go.

Rob Dawg said...

My Son in Law just passed the Series 7 exam with 90% on the first try. Less than 50% pass rate. I took a practice exam and can see why. I'm sure the CLE tests are similarly sneaky/tricky/evil.

Mike said...

Series 7 or CFA?? I thought Series 7 was a bit higher than that..

Mike said...

No, the insults and off topic and distractions would be all over this trying to stop rational discourse.

old debating trick I guess..when you realize you are on the losing end of an argument..start with the name calling/personal insults to try to derail the conversation..

Rob Dawg said...

Series 7 or CFA??

Series 7. Not bad for a kid less than a year out of college. I'm no slouch and even allowing for the lazy mistakes and trick questions I got less than 60% blind. Of course in my arrogance there was one answer I disagreed with so I probably wouldn't make a good CFA or investment advisor.

Mike said...

Q #15 of Series 7:

When you hear "Blue Horse Shoe Loves Annicott Steel" what should you do??

A)xxxx
B)xxxx
C)xxxx
D)xxxx

lol...

Mike said...

oh I just remembered..Trump's "State of the Union" Speech is tonight..I'm going to have to go get some good beer for this one..

Rob Dawg said...


Question 34 Wrong
The most volatile of the money market rates shown below is the:

x prime rate
√ fed funds rate
x discount rate
x call loan rate

I picked call loan rate. This isn't even the one i disagreed with.

Seems you know what it takes to be Series 7.

Mike said...

I've never even heard of a "call loan rate"..those other three don't seem volatile at all (controlled by the Fed mostly)...

Mike said...

give me a couple others you missed (don't tell me the answer up front)..

Mike said...

LIBOR would have been a better answer to that question..

(the others I wouldn't even consider "money market" rates)

Mike said...

no wonder the pass rate is so low..the questions don't make any sense..lol

Rob Dawg said...


Question 36
Wrong
One of your customers who is an active trader and is a student of technical analysis has called you to discuss his findings regarding the price action on MMM common. He believes that it is fast approaching its resistance level of 60. If he does not think the stock will break out, which of the below would be most appropriate?


sell most if not all of his current long position

place a GTC buy limit order at 61

place a GTC sell stop order at 60

sell MMM 60 put options with a 3 month expiration

Rob Dawg said...

Here's one I "accept" but got wrong.

Question 37
Wrong
The stock of which of the following listed corporations is generally considered the most sensitive to interest rate changes?


consumer goods

health care

public utility

broker-dealer

Mike said...

I would say A (sell)

Rob Dawg said...

One i got wrong because i didn't understand an arbitrary rule:

Question 45
Wrong
LMN corporation has 2 million shares authorized, of which 1 million have been issued and there are 100,000 shares of treasury stock on the balance sheet. If the Board declares a dividend of $200,000, the per-share dividend payout would be:


$ 0.20

$ 0.22

$ 5.00

$ 5.55

Mike said...

c) utility

Mike said...

hmmm..include treasury stock in the calc or not?? I'll say no and pick

A) .20

Rob Dawg said...

I would say A (sell)

Correct. I said sell stop @60.

Mike said...

oops change answer to B).22

200,000 / (1,000,000-100,000)

Rob Dawg said...

c) utility
correct. I said broker/dealer because I thought they'd be caught holding for their own accounts.

Rob Dawg said...

hmmm..include treasury stock in the calc or not?? I'll say no and pick

A) .20


Exactly what I did. Incorrect.

Question 45 Explanation:
Dividends are paid on shares which are outstanding in the hands of investors, not on treasury stock. This company has issued 1 million shares, but has bought back 100,000 of those shares, referred to as treasury stock. There are only 900,000 outstanding shares. The dividend of $200,000 divided by the 900,000 shares outstanding:
= 22 cents dividend per share.

Mike said...

Correct. I said sell stop @60.

I was thinking that too..but what if the stock gets to 59 7/8 and then retreats (as it often does around those support/resistance points)

"Conservative" answer would be just to sell it now.. (depending upon how close you are to the resistance point..

Mike said...

ha ha..see my note below that ..I corrected it to .22 before I saw your answer..

Rob Dawg said...

The one I disagree with:

Question 6
Correct
Mrs. Ko’s portfolio has an aggressive bias towards growth stocks. As such, its beta is 1.4 and she is concerned about downside exposure due to overall market risk over the near term. The S&P 500 Index is currently at 2000.00 and her portfolio has a current market value of $1,000,000. Which of the following recommendations would provide the best hedge?


short 5 S&P 500 Index calls

long 5 S&P 500 Index puts

long 7 S&P 500 Index puts

long 700 S&P 500 Index puts

Mike said...

oy..I hate these option questions

Mike said...

long 5 puts??

Rob Dawg said...

long 5 puts??

Great minds think alike. No.

7 puts.

Question 6 Explanation:
The S&P 500 has a beta of 1.0. Long Index puts provide an effective hedge against downside portfolio risk. But a portfolio with a beta of 1.4, which is 40% higher than 1.0, requires 40% more put options to acquire the appropriate amount of hedging. Each S&P 500 Index option contract with a 2000 strike price provides protection for $200,000 of portfolio value, which is 2000 times the multiplier of 100. A $1,000,000 portfolio would require 5 put options if the portfolio had a beta of 1.0. This portfolio requires 40% more options: 7 long puts.

I think this is "wrong" because "insurance" isn't "100% protection," just sufficient protection. I wouldn't advise a client to take out 100% insurance, i would asvise that they get out until 70% would let them sleep.

Mike said...

oh ok..i didn't take the beta of the portfolio into consideration. Yup..that's a good one...cheers to you Series 7 exam writers!!

Hey did I get the "Utility" answer right (most interest rate sensitive sector)..

Mike said...

"Utilities"

Rob Dawg said...


"Conservative" answer would be just to sell it now.. (depending upon how close you are to the resistance point..


I was thinking 56-57 with another 5-8% to resistance and figured the client would hate me for missing out on those last few nickels. The client is also a TA type and their TA says 60 not whatever price it is when they talk to you.

Mike said...

yeah I think in the real world..you would just ask the client when they wanted to sell (especially an active trader)..

Mike said...

ok that was fun..off to Costco for some new tires (10th anniversary present for my Camry..still has the original tires on...hahahahaha)

catch you guys for the SOTU tonight..should be a hoot

(my prediction..Demo Congresscritters show up..and then make a big dramatic exit when Trump takes the podium)..

Rob Dawg said...

I have an America's Tires that does a much better job including not stripping out a wheel bolt that almost killed my family like Costco.

Lawyerliz said...

No tests. In Fla you can just turn the program on and let it run. Howver I sit there and try to listen.

Lawyerliz said...

You mean people who pass that test lose money??

Lawyerliz said...

They should wait til he says something horrible.

He will.

Rob Dawg said...

Liz. Lose money has different meanings. They don't lose -their- money.

Lawyerliz said...

Sell.

Rob Dawg said...

Okay. A post running up to the speech. A running commentary during the speech and an overnight thread to complain about the speech. Sounds good?

Lawyerliz said...

Yessss!!!!

Lawyerliz said...

Yep.

Rob Dawg said...

The. Funny thing is if someone else were proposing to reign in EPA and renew the DOD and such I'd be cheering. As it is I am not seeing the surgeon with a scalpel I wanted.

Rob Dawg said...

Sign of desperation? My broker cut routine transaction fees from$7.95 to $4.95.

Lawyerliz said...

Except I don't intend to actually listen. Bad for my mental stability. Hey, what If nobody listened???

Lawyerliz said...

There was a time when everyone was talking about the stock mkt

About houses

About mtges and how much you could qualify for.

Still talking about student loans.
About home improvements.
Still. .

Lawyerliz said...

Hatchet.

Rob Dawg said...

Listen or not. Everyone will hear what they expect to hear not what was said. My only advice is no not literally but yes seriously.

Lawyerliz said...

True.

Lawyerliz said...

My house went up a 100$!!! Hahahah

Walt Tucker said...

Correct. I said sell stop @60.

I was thinking that too..but what if the stock gets to 59 7/8 and then retreats (as it often does around those support/resistance points)

"Conservative" answer would be just to sell it now.. (depending upon how close you are to the resistance point..

The stock is below 60. A "sell stop at 60" when the the stock prices is below 60 is immediately "set off". Therefore. in this case, "a sell stop at 60 is the same as a market order.

This is a frequent "newbee" mistake.

Lawyerliz said...

Etna is spewing. Symbolic of Trump?

Mike said...

all right...back with Costco pizza and plenty of cold beer..let's get this party started..

Mike said...

so two "right" answers to that question Walt??

Mike said...

Symbolic of Trump?

probably saw the Pelosi/Schumer press conference..

Mike said...

Rob..I was thinking about that options question..our clue that 5 Long puts wasn't the right answer should have been that they also offered 5 short calls as a choice (which I believe "puts" you in the same as a long put..)..so we could have narrowed it down to c or d..

Lawyerliz said...

Watching Fixer upper on tv.

Mike said...

is that the couple in Waco?? good show..

Rob Dawg said...

We like fixer upper. He's obviously playing up goofy and she's portrayed as the anchor but entertaining.

Rob Dawg said...

New post.

Walt Tucker said...

so two "right" answers to that question Walt??

Not really. If the stock is, say, 57, and he thinks that a "60 stop" would get him a 59.90 sale price, he wouldn't be very happy with a 57 or 56.95 price if he immediately sold it "at the market" (on a "60 stop".) Entering a "sell stop" price above the current stock price indicates that the broker is making a mistake which could be construed as "incompetence" even though the execution price would be the same as a "market order".

Probably the brokerage firm would sent the order back to the broker to check if he meant to enter a "market order" since the stop is below the current price.