Wednesday, May 03, 2017

Housing Supply No Longer "Tight"

One of the drivers of rising prices has been supply.  Just not enough stock to allow price discovery.  Spring 2017 has come and the "For Sale" signs are blossoming.  Let's see if buyers get more selective. 
Western half of 93010

Wrightwood, CA 92397

82 comments:

Cinco-X said...

http://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2017/05/03/murder_isnt_a_nationwide_problem_110234.html

Hmmm...

dodahman said...

I read that yesterday and was not impressed. kinda loose with aggregate stats. Figures don't lie, but liars will figure.

Rob Dawg said...

I bet you can get a even larger R squared using population density. As my then 7 year old now 26 year old eldest observed; "ten rats in a five rat cage."

LBD said...

Looks like cash in time at the RRE casino!

Rob Dawg said...

I cashed in/out last time. This time it will be the cash flow regardless of asset valuation so I am holding. The fact that the last time I wrote a check worth a Lexus to FedGov and a Toyota to California for the privilege of cashing out might have some influence.

Lawyerliz said...

But you made lots right? The State of Florida charges Doc stamps etc on a sale, but it isn't that much.

Encinitas Undercover said...

RD 1:36,

Equities are my habit, but I have the same attitude toward valuation and cashing out. I'm building a cash flow portfolio and don't care about the asset price fluctuation.

Lawyerliz said...

Isn't capital gains tax relatively low?

Rob Dawg said...

Made lots? I guess. Put the first two through college. Both are UC grads so technically we never paid tuition.

Encinitas Undercover said...

Plus I've decided never to try to time the markets now that the Fed can go Full Retard at will.

Thomas Stone said...

No big jump min inventory here although I did look at 9 properties on today's tour (42 miles of driving).
No dogs and the Sonoma Horticultural Nursery at 3970 Azalea was spectacularly beautiful.
7.5 acres worked on for 40 years by a true master gardener and it is at peak bloom right now.
A joy to see!

Lawyerliz said...

It's high speed trading I fear.

Lawyerliz said...

Up another 100 $.

LBD said...

When your ship comes in the Government is right there to unload their booty. Kind of dampens the whole thing.

Lawyerliz said...

Poo. My inheritance wasn't taxes because it was way under the limit. None of my house sales was rated because they were residences. The little house we paid a little. My condo, when I sell, I'll pay a little. Property tax here, very reasonable. Income taxes maybe about 25%. I expect to pay taxes, because I expect to have a goVT too big to drown in a bathtub. F 35s or is it 25s. Nah. Rob, I hate to break it to you bUT by my standards you are modestly rich. I am merely very very well off.

Lawyerliz said...

Meaning i can buy pretty much anything I want, except an old Master or 2. And I already gave mist of what I'd want.

Lawyerliz said...

Got most. Sheesh.

Lawyerliz said...

Kali need to build a bunch of relatively inexpensive housing. Why can't that be done?

Rob Dawg said...

Other than the cost of upkeep that price seems insanely low.

Rob Dawg said...

California has a problem of socialism. The govt only allows housing to be built at the expense of existing quality of life. One more rat in the cage.

Rob Dawg said...

I paid monster taxes because I treated and reported the properties as investments. I probably could have done some dancing and finagled a residence exemption but that wouldn't be any more ethical than the usary this State extracts from its people.

Mike said...

and....BAMM!!..it's summer..75 degrees on the patio enjoying some IPA's..

what are we talking about?? ;<)

Rob Dawg said...

I see an inventory build. Tom Stone not so much. Nice Guinness porter and leftovers in an hour. The dawghaus is shaping up. I really let the finish work slide.

Lawyerliz said...

Summer, ugh,

Mike said...

I'm not seeing an inventory build in any of the markets I keep track of (exact opposite actually)..but I'm poor (condos under $200K)...so we're probably watching different stuff

Mike said...

Summer, ugh,

go take a stroll around mosquito bay..you'll feel better.. ;<)

Mike said...

sorry Mosquito Lagoon (you have to appreciate the honesty in the naming) :)

Cinco-X said...

Why would any community allow zoning for that? Taxes would be low, but the owners would still l want expensive services...

Cinco-X said...

The worst six months of the year as I recall

Mike said...

I was looking at some "convohotels" in Daytona beach (so former hotel rooms converted to condos)..thinking it might be fun for a few months of the year (and then bail north)...but they didn't meet even my very low standards..

Rob Dawg said...

Four seasons. Early spring. Late spring. Early fall. Late fall.

Mike said...

My dream is to have condos in Madison Wi..and Tucson AZ..and then float between the two as the seasons change (fun college towns with great bike trails)...

waiting patiently for the next RE crash I guess..

Mike said...

in the mean time...killing time in Seattle (not a bad place to be stuck I guess)...cheers!!

Lawyerliz said...

I think you have a very long timw to wait for a real crash. A dip maybe, a crash no. We're putting on a new roof and the roofer has 6 months of work, so we are on a list. The hub didn't want to put the roof on til next year anyhow, hopefully after the rainy season. I'm scared to see the estimate for all we want done.

Cinco-X said...

Don't forget your umbrella

Mike said...

yeah..I'm afraid you're right Liz...it's going to be hard to beat those 2010-2012 prices anytime soon

Mike said...

dang..maybe the best line ever in a political debate..by Marien Le Pen

“Let me tell you what happened – France will be led by a woman, it’ll be either me, or Mrs. Merkel. That’s the truth”.

Rob Dawg said...

The most succinct and crystalizing political quote since "hang together or hang separately."

Mike said...

so the name of Jeff Lynne (of ELO fame) doesn't typically come up in the "Greatest Guitarists" debates..but let me make my case for him to be considered amongst the greats..

Acoustic guitar..listen to "Fire on High"..from the Face the Music album...spectacular..

and then on electric..the obvious reference would be his work on "Roll over Beethoven"..but dang..I'm thinking his work on "Do Ya" might even be better (You Tube ELO Zoom)...

just subtle mastery of the instrument...

Mike said...

The most succinct and crystalizing political quote since "hang together or hang separately

she pretty much framed the election..as either..vote for me or Merkel..

briliant!!

Mike said...

1) Terry Kath (Chicago)
2) Gary Richrath (REO Speedwagon)
3) Toy Caldwell (Marshall Tucker Band)
4) Allen Collins (Lynyrd Skynyrd)
5) Jeff Lynne

honorable mention (Clapton. Townshend, Gilmore. Page, Beck, etc)

Mike said...

looking to get into a "best guitarist" argument with someone ...and nobody is taking the bait!! he he

Mike said...

good night everyone..happy guitar solos to everyone.. :)

Rob Dawg said...

I agree about a real crash. There remains a small but real possibility of so much linkage that the dominoes all fall. Subprime auto sales take out consumer spending and the stack markets then we find out hidden contagions. Small chance sure but not impossible.

Rob Dawg said...

Sm_l probably met half those on your list. My late BiL probably all.

Lawyerliz said...

Also true.

Lawyerliz said...

I'd like to argue, but don't know enough.

Lawyerliz said...

Very very small. Good morning.😀 all.

Lawyerliz said...

Well, will the health care bill g et voted today?

Lawyerliz said...

Calculated risk predicted all the figures today will be relativel g cheery.

Lawyerliz said...

May the 4th be with you.

Lawyerliz said...

Prince Phillip is,stepping down at 96.

Lawyerliz said...

Good morning east coast. Wakies wakies.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Off to the long awaited wedding this week end!

Lawyerliz said...

My UU speech will end with Lexington and Concord. The liss of the fight really happened on the way back to Boston, where the regulars were shot killed abd eounded by the militIA hiding behind walls and haystacks.

LBD said...

Besides finishing a few small projects on the house we are pretty well set for the long haul. Still have a lot of landscape and out door living area to finish. Never enough time for my crazy projects for fun.

Lawyerliz said...

Well we've been in the house for 19 years, so we have to do all kinds of updating stuff. I said to the hub, after this,let's just let it rot. When we moved in, we had to replace virtually every surface. It was sublimely ugly. Black countertops in a dark kitchen. SIGH. Now I ask you. . . Master done in gator orange and blue. . . He was a high school football coach.

LBD said...

Sounds like the McMansion we had in Colorado. Green and orange carpet, It was built in 1977, ugly and out dated back then. Luckily the cabinets and counter tops where still in style. Solid built house just before the building boom and the track shack was developed.

Cinco-X said...

Ya... That's a good one...

Cinco-X said...

That should be the line every potential leader outside of doucheland should be using...

Cinco-X said...

In the"best guitarist" debate, I'm glad I went to bed early... Besides, you never heard my BiL's note for note rendition of Eruption

Lawyerliz said...

Some people should not be let near home decoration materials.

Cinco-X said...

Stack markets, as in the odds are stacked against you, the small investor...

Cinco-X said...

I wanna retire earlier than that...

Cinco-X said...

I detest any team that dresses in Orange. I can almost tolerate Clemson cuz of Dabo Sweeney...almost

Cinco-X said...

My house was built in the early 1700's... Ya, it needed some updating

Lawyerliz said...

Unemployment claims are down and the trade deficit is down sloghtly. People have been saying we are close to full employment. I'd like to know what he powers that be think that is. 4.1 overall? U6 7.7? Black unemployment 7%? Less than that got all 3 figures. 3.9, 7, and 6.4?

Lawyerliz said...

!!!!!!! Like indoor plumbing and electricity??

Lawyerliz said...

There are a few shades of orange that are tolerable. Gator orage is horrible. MY daughter got her undergrad degree there. Good school.

Lawyerliz said...

Marigolds planted. More marigolds needed. Some sawgrass chopped. Supposed to rain today. Hope it does.

Lawyerliz said...

What happens if full employment is exceeded? Raises? Oh, noez!!

sm_landlord said...

Of Mike's top 5, I met three of them and recorded one of them.

Listing top guitarists is an exercise in futility, though. So many good ones, so many styles. You would need a list of at least 100 to cover the field reasonably well.

Lawyerliz said...

Flooding maybe on son's route home from work.

Rob Dawg said...

One characteristic of great players is that you recognize their playing. Almost like recognizing posters no matter their screen name.

sm_landlord said...

> One characteristic of great players is that you recognize their playing.

If they're playing in their own style, yes. But another characteristic of (some) great players is that they can play in someone else's style and sound quite convincing.

Lawyerliz said...

My front turtle haw appeared. The medium sized one.

sm_landlord said...

Did someone mention 3D printers?

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604088/the-3-d-printer-that-could-finally-change-manufacturing/

Rob Dawg said...

Used to look forward to my issue of Tech Review in print. Now the "magazine" is virtual and the stuff they talk about is what is printed. Disc brakes will be the first big leap.

New post.

Rob Dawg said...

> But another characteristic of (some) great players is that they can play in someone else's style and sound quite convincing.

Beck in particular. (Was going to say the exact thing but my order was ready at Panera Bread so I cut my post short).

Cinco-X said...

Someone had retrofitted that. Electricity was knob-and-tube, and the plumbing was some sort of plastic tubing which I believe has been outlawed. Drainage pipe was PVC, but that's because the septic system was relatively new.

Cinco-X said...

Where do we count forced retirement and discouraged workers?

Cinco-X said...

True, but those "technical guitarists" rarely make it near the top of an all-time best list.