Thursday, May 25, 2017

The NOAA Hurricane Guess is In!

NOAA - For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
"As a Florida resident, I am particularly proud of the important work NOAA does in weather forecasting and hurricane prediction," said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. "These forecasts are important for both public safety and business planning, and are a crucial function of the federal government."
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

-----

 Ask them what their record has been for the last decade.  Miserable.  This isn't a prediction, this is hand waving CYA. 

37 comments:

dodahman said...

fun drinking game, but little else.
Doesn't take but one, so....

Lawyerliz said...

They are getting better predicting where the storms will go, but not intensity.

Lawyerliz said...

Andrew was the A dtorm.

Lawyerliz said...

Buy you flood insu rance and hurricane windows NOW.km

Rob Dawg said...

I am pretty sure my mom and dad were playing the Florida hurricane drinking game long before I was born. In the 50s that meant stocking up on candles and beer and getting ready to BBQ the fish in the freezer. Flashlights didn't last long, generators didn't exist. Forecasts? No, the old timers down at the dock would look at the sky and batten their skiffs and mutter about a blow comin'.

Rob Dawg said...

There was already a rare "A" storm in April. The first in season event will be "B". Of course without massive data acquisition in the past it would have never been tracked.

Lawyerliz said...

Yep.

Daniel Zogran said...

Rob, still can't figure out how to work the "Open ID" aspect. Drop me private e-mail?

And this is a great hurricane tracking site. The comments and pictures from the "special hurricane correspondents" on the right hand side are pretty neat -

stormcarib.com

Rob Dawg said...

And yet another neighbor is looking to cash out:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Camarillo/1185-Corte-Barroso-93010/home/4458333

The listings are growing. That's not a bad thing yet. These kinds of houses take time to transact. If they don't sell, that's the tell.

Rob Dawg said...

MNDan, I suggest you just generate a new google account rather than try to change the account name which looks nigh impossible.

Rob Dawg said...

Dan suggests:

stormcarib.com

I agree. The storm spotters on the side bar are great for scheduling golf outings and scuba reservations ummm... if you know anyone who flies to Carribean Islands for golf or coral diving that is.

Lawyerliz said...

Yeah. Rich people do that. Do I know any rich people? (

Rob Dawg said...

In case anyone wondered:

http://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Maps/119-34.html

About 15 miles away 3.1 tremblor this morning. I did not feel it but swear there is a new ripple in the driveway.

Lawyerliz said...

Bet you do.

Rob Dawg said...

One of the richest guys I know sent his dog to Switzerland for "duck school." His fancy five year old truck was for going into town. The ranch truck was so old make and color were hard to discern.

Lawyerliz said...

Well,.he doesn't care what other peope think. The ultimate freedom.

Thomas Stone said...

Dan, a new account is a good idea.
Staying anonymous on these blogs is a smart move!

Rob Dawg said...

This "rich" guy is going all out this year. A vacation in Park City, Utah. In June. In a station wagon. With a coupon.

Rob Dawg said...

Maybe if I scrape and save enough I can afford to fund Jerry Brown's free medical care. Not really. there just isn't that much money anywhere. My favorite part of the $400 billion annual cost was the assumption that $150 to $200 billion would magically be decanted from the existing health care funding conduits to support universal care by the State.

Of course the real fatal flaw is thinking health care providers will sit still for becoming second class drafted state employees.

Rob Dawg said...

Follow up to diesel combustion and Volkswagen:

http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article152715174.html

Mike said...

at this point..you almost need the whole health care system to collapse and then build something new from the ashes...

Mike said...

70 degrees and crystal blue skies out on the deck. I can feel the S.A.D. releasing it's grip more and more each day.. ;<)

EngineerJim said...

>Maybe if I scrape and save enough I can afford to fund Jerry Brown's free medical care.

Supposedly they're going to fund it with a 15% payroll tax.
Thank the Gods I'm not working any more.

Mike said...

Supposedly they're going to fund it with a 15% payroll tax.

you didn't hear?? it's retroactive ;<)

Rob Dawg said...

Okay. 15% health. 11% income. 25% Federal. 9% sales tax. 60% effective rate before property taxes and all the rest. Go long the U-Haul Index.

Mike said...

"should 5% appear to small..be thankful I don't take it all"

Rob Dawg said...

sm_refugee thinks it is just my neighbors but the caramelized crust of the housing souflee is covering the entire Oxnard Plain. Here is a "random" example:

https://www.trulia.com/property/3242410603-85-Los-Altos-St-Oxnard-CA-93035

A condo!

LBD said...

CARB screws up and passes VW diesels. Take no responsibility for their part in the mess and use it to push their electric car agenda. Nebraska looks better everyday. LOL!

Mike said...

A condo!

interesting that the last sale was for $1.8 million (in 2007)...now asking $1.87 million

I'd consider it (after I win Mega Millions this weekend)

Rob Dawg said...

No! If you win, talk to me first and Tom Stone last. ;)

Regardless, there is a new post up.

No idea how long I can keep posting 4x/day but it seems to attract a larger audience necessary for sustainability.

Mike said...

if this site gets too costly to maintain..maybe we can do a Facebook groups or something?? I've managed to avoid Facebook until now..but would join to keep in touch with the folks in here.

Rob Dawg said...

Mike. I do this for free ever since I figured out how evil Google has ALWAYS been. Their "motto" should have been enough warning but it took having them renege on two really important tenets of their supposed model to convince me.

I do this. About now 5k/month. Right on the edge. Less and no vitality. This isn't about ego or monetization. It takes more than a dozen regulars to keep the conversation going.

Mike said...

$5K?? dang....thank you for that

Why don't we switch to Facebook or something?? I think we could get everyone to switch over...doesn't seem fair to ask you to shoulder that burden

Rob Dawg said...

No! 5k visits per month. I am not enough out of pocket to even mention it.

Mike said...

oh ok..well I appreciate what you've done here. Thank you!!

Rob Dawg said...

The worst negatives in my personal life might be "DAMMIT! why didn't you plant that rose like you promised?"

Mike said...

ha ha..that doesn't sound like Mrs Dawg at all!!