Thursday, July 19, 2018

When is a Drought No Longer a Drought?

November 2006 was the last time Ventura County was not in drought conditions.  Sorry but what we have here is clearly a major mistake in establishing baseline conditions. 

77 comments:

Firemane said...

The question of how droughts are defined scientifically is an interesting question to ask.

https://www.livescience.com/21469-drought-definition.html

*Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) devised in 1965 ... (was replaced by) the U.S. Drought Monitor (in 1999).

Then again, I read recently that the US monthly average temperature had been above the 20th century average for the last 401 months in a row. Then again, "Dark Side of the Moon" has spent 861 weeks in the Billboard 200 album chart, which seems even less likely, so what do I know?

LBD said...

The house acrossed the street is for sale @ $240K, recnt remodel but nothing of high quality. High priced IMO bottom of the hill and gets minor flooding in heavy down pours. For now the farm land behind it has the noise of the pivot as well. Some fool will pay it and there goes the property tax again.

Kali droughts are extreme due to Man Made failures to build more reservoirs. Interesting You Tube videos of the central valley sinking from over pumping as well.

Rob Dawg said...

Kali water shortages are man made. Droughts are apparently man defined.

Lawyerliz said...

So why aren't more reservoirs built? Do kalipersons have a death wish?

Firemane said...

Pick any word you know. They are ALL man-defined.

But, there's often friction when something gets defined, people accept it as "gospel", then after many years, someone say ... y'know, that definition is not right. We need to re-visit this.

Which is why getting "plutoed" is now a thing. Because nobody actually HAD a SCIENTIFIC definition of planet - and when they tried to make one, none of the logical proposals would include Pluto (or they would also include several other large asteroids between here and Pluto).

LBD said...

Everything is defined by man, also everything is redefined by man, Physics for one.

Lawyerliz said...

Pluto will always be a planet to me. After all I memorized it as a kid.with all the others.
You mean " Man is the measure of all things? "

LBD said...

Yes and as we improve on instruments we change means by a better definition of what things are. Best guess until more evidence is known. ;)

Jim the Realtor said...

>>Droughts are apparently man defined.

San Diego reservoirs are 99% full. Your grass is dead only if you want it to be.

TJandTheBear said...

The 20th Century was "unusually wet" on a relative basis... the drought conditions likely represent the true California climate.

Happy to be a thousand miles north these days.

Lawyerliz said...

Well, it's sure wet here, but it's supposed to be. Monsoon season. No watering necessary. Unless you're the type who wants every single blade of grass green.

Lawyerliz said...

About to look at the news. Should I shudder in anticipation? Count the flipflops? Which ought to be just a beach shoe?

Lawyerliz said...

Anyway gluten morgan.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

News? Political Comedy is screaming away! I recommend the Cartoon channel for the best info.

Mish has a nice piece on recording temp at airports and global warming.

Unknown said...

Liz Says "So why aren't more reservoirs built? Do kalipersons have a death wish?"

1) There are a very small number of qualified sites. You need a LOT of land to build a dam and you need a lot of drainage area coming to that point. typically you are talking about rivers running thru state or national parks, or large single landowners such as ranchers as the only feasible way to build a reservoir.

2) Water rights are ancient and often intractable. A water rights owner can demand any price they like for that water and there is no way to force them to sell it. If they demand that x gallons of water be sent downstream then the dam must release that water.

3) We don't maintain the dams we have. (Oroville)

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz said: So why aren't more reservoirs built? Do kalipersons have a death wish?
Take a flight over Kalipornikateya on Google Maps Airline and note the many blue lakes. Most are man made. There is a current push to add height to the dams to increase storage. No matter the size of the reservoir you have to have snow to fill it.
What Rubygoat said.

Firemane said...

Two separate problems.

1) Is the amount of annual precipitation changing (and if so, how)?

2) How does society distribute water to people as population rises and populations move?

Note: For item #1 - *total* precipitation isn't the whole story. How much falls matters - but so does how the total is spread over time. Lots of precip. in a short time doesn't impact ecosystem the same as a little precip. regularly over a long time.

I'm no drought expert - but I'm pretty sure the bulk of drought rules are targeted at impact on farmers (not drinking water). So, 4 inches of rain per month for 3 months is VERY different (drought calculation-wise) than 12 inches in one month with none in two months.

While you *can* store in reservoirs, as noted above - how much "when" matters. If 'norms' change in rain frequency then lots of calculations made when created may become wrong.

Lawyerliz said...

Sounds like Kali has too many people right now. Forget immigrants. a water tax to move in or stay. Heheh

Rob Dawg said...

So many good questions and observations. If agriculture were to save 4% it would be the same as urban use saving 20%. If the CA Aqueduct were to reduce leakage by half the cities would be inundated with excess. If we had used the recent drought to de-silt existing reservoirs we could have added 20-30% to storage capacity and improved quality. If cotton farming were subject to pollution rules it would be shut down and there would be enough water for generations.

Rob Dawg said...

If San Francisco were not so powerful the Hetch Hetchy Valley would rival Yosemite

Lawyerliz said...

So i go to replace my lost glasses, and my eyes are too weird to fit. My previous glasses only 2 to 3 months old were fitted there. I suspect some suits have cut services.

Firemane said...

I had an uncle who was an optometrist.
Sad thing though.
One day he fell into his lens grinder ...
and made a spectacle of himself.

Lawyerliz said...

Ggggggrrrrrooooannnnn!!!!!!๐Ÿคจ๐Ÿ˜œ๐Ÿ˜ก๐Ÿ˜ฑ

LBD said...

I like this Hanson guy and this talk tells a lot about the disconnect in Kali where water comes from and why they have some. He also covers the known dynamics put forth in the 60's and why they stopped growing the reservoirs. Kali was not nuts back in the day I was a kid.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKIEulhEyCQ

Sound track is poor and long but IMO worth a listen.

Lawyerliz said...

Hub says this is ancient

dilbert dogbert said...

The dawg may remember Jim The Realtor from the old CR comments. Here is a link to CR and Jim on twitter:
https://twitter.com/Bubbleinfo/status/1020446457302724608

Jim the Realtor said...

Thanks dilbert - I made a couple of comments about market conditions around me, and apparently Bill still has a good following (more than me)!

While you're on my twitter, go back a couple of days to see me get into it with the Redfin twitter girl.

First she wanted to take my conversation off-line and out of the public view, so I went for it instead. Their CEO said in a public forum that they don't sandbag their listings, so I questioned that, and I gave them examples (there are dozens) where Redfin agents have sold listings off-market in SD.

She tried to explain, but you and I know that either you condone your agents denying their sellers open market exposure, or your don't. She tried to play it down the middle - they don't condone it but hey, whatever happens, happens.

https://twitter.com/Redfin/status/1019680721177374721

She also mixed up her replies so it is hard to follow.

https://twitter.com/Redfin/status/1019742304754577408

https://twitter.com/Redfin/status/1019743104209829889

https://twitter.com/Redfin/status/1019743720013303808

Lawyerliz said...

That's unethical I assume?

Jim the Realtor said...

>>That's unethical I assume?

Yes, but everyone does it to pick up a double commission, or because they are just fat and lazy. A number of the 'sold before processing' listings have an outside agent represent the buyer, which makes you wonder why the listing agent didn't just put it in the MLS and let every buyer have a chance.

A big dual-agency class-action lawsuit in the works here:

https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewDocument?docIndex=F6GoWWSthHIOlDuLwceGQw==

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Sales are about closing deals for max profit. Those who are connected buy and sell properties (especially rentals and commercial) with out using a Realtor. Realtor rules like politicians who pick and choose which ones they can ignore and the community will let slide.

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz, here is link to what your friend josap might face.
Here is a dought link: https://www.climas.arizona.edu/sw-climate/drought
A repeat of a 50 drought would be catastrophic.

Lawyerliz said...

On my way for an MRI (Thank you taxpayers! ), i saw a number of For Sale signs, when in the last few years I've seen few to none
First you saw a lot of unkempt lawns and bbn lack of maintenance, then that went away, and now for sal signs, which means, imo, that prlces have gone up to be greater than mtges so if people want to sell, they can.๐Ÿ˜€๐Ÿข

Lawyerliz said...

๐Ÿค”๐Ÿค”๐Ÿ˜–๐Ÿ˜ฑ

Lawyerliz said...

Looks like Az is already in a bad drought.

Lawyerliz said...

Maybe some of these people hung on and didn't walk and are now being rewarded.

dilbert dogbert said...

Here is a link for the map and drought geegs: https://cefa.dri.edu/Westmap/westmappass.php

dilbert dogbert said...

My proposal for Kali is for those whose family were born, in the West, in 1860 or earlier can stay. The rest please leave.

Lawyerliz said...

They can go to Mexico.

LBD said...

The whole US is for Legal citizens. Novel idea don't you think? Anchor babies of illegals remain illegal. IMO.

Lawyerliz said...

Gotta change the constitution, then. When one set of my ancestors the scotch Irish came in the 1700s in 3 waves, much the same thing was said. Also the Irish, "Carberry", German a bit "Block". And the rich side "Taylor", English, not at all.

Lawyerliz said...

The Indians would say that we were all filthy, sickly murderers, and for the most part, bbn they'd be right.

Unknown said...

JtR's comment about Redfin is spot on.
Double ending a deal ( Representing both buyer and seller)is inherently conflicted and it can bite you in the ass big time.
If anyone is wondering why Sonoma County is no longer in a drought...The diuretics I'm taking WORK REALLY WELL.

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz said: They can go to Mexico.
Or as my bible thumping great great grandfather Joab said to the drunks in the bar he was thumping in: "And you all can go to hell."
He was quite a character. He did an invocation at the early Oregon Legislature. One sentence: "Lord They Know Not What They Do" and sat down. He was paid $35 for that.

Lawyerliz said...

Yuck Tom Stone.
Biz is good, I assume?

Lawyerliz said...

Simple and effective.

Lawyerliz said...

But not always true.

Jim the Realtor said...

>>JtR's comment about Redfin is spot on.

Thanks Tom, and good to hear the diuretics are holding up!

Lawyerliz said...

Or, pouring down. Hehe. It rains nearly every day here.
I wonder if there are any side effects to MRIs. Another one to my spine. It seens the pain in my hip is from the spine. Lumbar spinal stenosis.

Lawyerliz said...

Florida's overall unemployment rate is 3.8%.
Orlando's is higher than it was, but under 3.8%, suposedly due to prospective employees pouring in. I will, completely arbitrarily set full employment here at 3.2%, overall for the entire state, unadjusted.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Still not seeing real improvement in hours worked. Job quality is still a problem. Burger flipping is not an adult career.

I read some thing the other day that said a college degree will not yield a million dollars any more in return for the debt involve. It is down to $800K if you are one of the lucky ones. Over sold degrees is failing and tuition just keeps rising.

Unknown said...

Liz and JtR, I'm still making a living in Real Estate.
A coworker just mentioned to me that I'm in today's Press Democrat as one of the "Top Agents" at Century 21.
As the result of one deal.
I earned it, it took six months to get that place ready to sell.
And while getting in the paper was a pleasant shock, my client was very happy with the outcome.
That's what matters.

Jim the Realtor said...

Top 1%!

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz: Lumbar spinal stenosis
Had my back operated for that back in 1997. Doc said I would be back good as new in 6 weeks. Make that 2years and not good as new. It took several months before I could walk unaided. Even then I could not run and had to take care walking on uneven surfaces. That said, I did get back to skiing and riding horses. Currently feel I am suffering from somethink like Post Polio Syndrome. Muscle weakness in the legs is increasing. I still can ride a bike and ride the horse but who knows for how long? Got an electric bike as I assume I will not have the strength to ride up our little hills.
Good Luck

dilbert dogbert said...

Tom Stone. Good to hear from you.
Do you remember when you advised me to sell my POS in San Joes's Nose? Zillow says I might find a fool to buy it for 1.7mil. I think the South Bay Area market has peaked. Been thinking of making it my principal residence and letting the daughter and SIl live in it while waiting out the years to get a prop gains break. They could sell their place reducing their housing costs by a couple of thou while we still have income from it. The IRS would not like that but I say F'km.

Unknown said...

Dilbert, it's always good to have a plan...

LBD said...

Irrational Revenue Service? :)

Lawyerliz said...

Florida's employment i crease is in all areas.

Lawyerliz said...

Yeah. My position is I will have back surgery when the pain is so severe I think I'll kill myself. No where near that point now

Lawyerliz said...

Service. Hahahahaha.

Lawyerliz said...

No doc is recommending surgery so far.

Lawyerliz said...

But. . . . Don't mess with the IRS.

LBD said...

Paying taxes means you did good. Just kind of sad when your ship comes in and they are their to unload their share a very big share.

Lawyerliz said...

Boy, do we have rain here. Contractor coming over tomorrow, to start on the peeling knock down and drywall. Yay.

dilbert dogbert said...

Liz, Your decision to wait till the pain is beyond endurance is what I recommend to folks with back pain. A friend, your age, had back pain and was going to have surgery. The docs discovered he had a blood clotting problem and never had surgery. He is much better now. The only reason for surgery is loss of function, like peeing and pooping. If that happens you have two options die or surgery.

Lawyerliz said...

Yeah some ladies at the Uu church had back and knee surgeries and its not a pretty sight.

Firemane said...

LBD,

Just curious. Do you have any idea what was happening with hours worked from 1964 - oh, 2000?

And I'm not getting the logic of why you think more hours is a good thing.

Lawyerliz said...

More money? More work available? Prelude to more hiring and lower unemployment and fewer discouraged workers?

Lawyerliz said...

Time and a half pay?

Lawyerliz said...

I had forgotten time and a half existed.

LBD said...

Good Morning!

Simple as a former employer if there is a labor shortage the two things happen to meet output demand. One is you pay more in wages to attract workers and the second is you work what employees you have longer harder hours. Data is adjusted way to much IMO and you get what you want to see. The hours worked does not support a shortage of labor and wages don't seem to be rocketing to the moon exactly. Is there data on how many part time jobs are held by one person? Jobs and people are two separate subjects. Life is really simple and complication is met to confuse and control. IMO.

LBD said...

LL with little exception most don't even hit 40hrs a week, and a lot of part time got hours cut due to Obummer Care. Had a talk with someone I know who had the experience working for one of the Malls anchor stores in the 90's. She went from full time to part time and lost benefits, company sold and went down hill through mergers and now BK. Luckily she has a good full time job now and will probably make it to retirement if the major co. doens't loss it's stability.

Lawyerliz said...

Yep, hmm my sec'y seldom did
I think u6, compared to u3, might be helpful. The forgotten workers were analyzed privatedly, so all the figures should be increased upward by about 1%. Assuming ignored error bars everywhere. Fewer beggers here, not that there ever were so many.

Firemane said...

Well, BLS has a few series with long histories.

Table 7 from the 'B' series:

https://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab7.htm

Has "total hours" for all non-supervisory employees back to '64
Also has "OT hours for manufacturing workers" back to '56.

Interesting to look at if you view the graphs.

Total hours have been steadily dropping - (was just under 39 back in '64), but dropped all the way to 34 by 1990. The down trend has turned more into a side trend - but, except for a big dip in 2009, it's been holding fairly steady at a bit under 34 hours since about 2003.

What is really interesting is the trend in OT hours is actually opposite. OT hours have trended steadily UP since 1956. In fact, the only time Manufacturing OT hours were greater than today were a couple of spikes in 1995 and 1998. Prior to 1992, OT hours never breached 4 hours, since then, it is almost never BELOW 4 hours.

The point here I'm making is not that your instinct is wrong - but that a BIG trend can mask short term changes. The "base" hours worked has been steadily dropping since the '60s. The avg. hours worked dropped steadily at the same time that female participation rates in the workforce rose from 35 to 70%. There is a tendency to think in terms of *ALL* working spouses working FT. That was never the case. As we went from the Ward Cleaver single-earner family to the dual-income family, your "simple" world got a LOT more complex.

Me? I don't mind discussions on the relative usefulness of this stat vs. that stat. What I object to is simultaneously saying "the stats are all bogus!" and then using BLS data (hours worked not rising) as a negative indication about the economy.

Has the ratio of FT to PT changed over time? Perhaps. I don't know. It would be worth looking at. But, "what if" there is a long term (40+ year) trend of PT workers increasing (as a % of all workers)? Does that mean the economy was steadily getting worse during the Reagan years and the Clinton years?

Now, if you find such a long term trend - it is possible to adjust for it - which is precisely what you say there is already too much of.

Me? I've spent the past 10 years trying to understand the BLS data better so I can have some feel of where I think the data is valuable, and where I think long term trends really have made historical comparisons useless. (First Time Claims is one area, for example).

It's the kind of things journalists might have done in the past, but there's almost nobody left in the media who isn't an opinion mouthpiece masquerading as news - so I have to do it myself.


Rob Dawg said...

Listen to Firemane except and this is not refutation but a caveat, paid hours and expended hours are not always the same.

New post.

Lawyerliz said...

True, either way.

LBD said...

Busy day exhausted, I will respond tomorrow.

LBD said...

Firemane,

I commended you for your studies. I on the other hand as a shoot from the hip street player and do not study Data for all my answers. So in my last chapter of life I am isolated from the problems short of a depression or war (civil). I do use hours worked as a guide to real need for workers. The increase as I understand on cutting of full time employment to part time, especially hospitality and leisure. On the short it has dropped about .5 in recent years. Not good and goes back to there is no over all shortage of labor. There is always ares of need like skilled people that colleges and our education system have failed. My lack of trust in government extends to data just like today's drama of the FBI and the past IRS scandal etc. That said I hope you find what you need as I did in my way.