Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Home Price Increases 2014

Who doesn't love DQNews?  
  The question of this post is where are house prices headed next year.  Sometimes it is impossible like when there are inflection points.  Sometimes it is difficult like when trends are so strong as to develop inertia or as I call it; "make their own weather."  Mostly it is dumb extrapolation which is what keeps the lame stream media interested because that is the limit of their perceptions.  When you couldn't get into a math or sciences program and business degrees were too hard there was always "Communications" or whatever they call it these days.  Here is what DQNews has charted for rolling price increases.  Keep in mind these are house prices not home prices.  That's an important distinction. 
 

See anything?  Yup.  You (we?) missed the boat.  The other thing?  Yup.  Interest rates matter. 

So, 2014.  Flat.  The wild cards being inflation and employment.  Inflation looks to be deflation.  Just look at commodities.  And that includes PMs.  Weird that glod and silber are base metals in a deflationary environment eh?  Employment looks to be so buffered by oversupply that wages won't rise for the 80%. 

What if interest rates fall again in accord with long and really long term trends?  That depends upon the lenders being willing to follow with lower mortgage rates.  These are like gasoline prices at the pump.  Quick to rise in response to input shocks, slow to fall. 

May you live in interesting times. 

Balanced Budget Math, College Edition

Isn't this just the coolest representation of California?

There's a rumor going around that with the passage of Prop 30 and a recovering economy California is nearly back to a balanced budget.  Okay, the rumor is that State officials will "claim" we are almost back to even.  Set aside that we have a Constitution that forbids deficits.  Set aside enough wiggle room for dynamic budgeting, optimistic projections, etc.  What's the real story?  It's an old story, you may have heard it before.  Borrow, lie and spend.

Despite very low interest rates (remember this) the portion of revenue dedicated to debt service continues to grow. That is not necessarily a bad thing.  It is only bad when at it comes at the expenses of ongoing obligations.  And guess what?  Yup, at the expense of ongoing payments.

With wickedly low interest rates why would you enter into a variable loan?  Because your Wall Street advisors said it was good.  And what if it was not good?  Why then your Wall Street advisors have an answer; Swaps.  Uh oh.  You know where this went.  It gets worse.  Say you are a CS or UC campus and "need" a new building.  How to get it as cheap as possible meaning as gold plated as you can get away with?  One way is with cheap credit.  How to make credit cheaper?  Your Wall Street advisors have a solution.  Just like companies; issue preferred debt.  That means every dollar every semester every year goes to paying off bondholders and finance charges before everything else.  Getting this now?  The money doesn't pay teachers or anything else until the debt is serviced.




Even With Tuition Hikes, Public Universities Can’t Keep Up

shutterstock_107108792
For years, state schools have used tuition increases as a crutch to bolster revenue in the face of declining state support. Now, however, about four in 10 public universities report tuition revenue is not keeping pace with inflation, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service. In putting together its report, Moody’s surveyed 114 four-year public universities and 173 four-year privates and found that negative trends — inability to raise prices, declining enrollments and heightened regulatory and political pressure to keep down tuition — are “now buffeting public universities with greater intensity.” Revenue from tuition is projected to grow at a rate below inflation at 44 percent of publics and 42 percent of privates surveyed by Moody’s. Conditions at colleges and universities outside the survey could be even worse because Moody’s rates colleges that are in a position to borrow money.


----- 

As student loans grow, so does university leadership pay

There's plenty of dispute about why college costs so much today. As The Times notes, it could be that colleges got caught up in big spending when economic times were good to attract the best and the brightest students and faculty. Maybe education is just inherently pricey as universities try to keep up with higher health care costs and new technologies. But one important factor is being overlooked: Pay packages at the top. While students languish in debt, many university presidents enjoy lofty paychecks. Since 1991, salaries of university presidents at at public and private universities have roughly doubled, says Andrew Hacker, co-author of Higher Education? How Colleges Are Wasting Our Money and Failing Our Kids – and What We can Do About It. At public universities, the median compensation for presidents was $375,442 in 2009-2010, according to The Chronicle of Higher Education's latest figures. The top 10 highest paid boasted compensation ranging from $1.8 million to $728,350, with Ohio State University president E. Gordon Gee at the top, followed by former University of Washington president Mark Emmert with $904,004 (he's now president of the National Collegiate Athletic Association), Francisco Cigarroa of the University of Texas System with $813,892 and John Hitt of the University of Central Florida with $800,703. That's way more than what many of today's most high-profile public servants earn.

-----

 So there it is.  While education should be getting cheaper the same problems that hit US corporations a 40 years ago and the FIRE sector 20 years ago are arriving in academia at the same time, now. 

Monday, December 02, 2013

What we put into it

Nothing is sadder than people who bought at the peak and poured cash into their house who then think they need to be made whole.  Wait... there is something sadder.  When they might get it.  And thus I present:


 Nice place, nice 'hood.  Nice schools, etc.  What's the problem?

Tax History

YearProperty taxesChangeTax assessmentChange

2013$6,7572.3%$632,5244.0%
2011$6,606-2.7%$607,9650.8%
2010$6,7892.0%$603,423-4.7%
2009$6,659--$633,2722.0%
2008$6,659177%$620,8552%
2007$2,407--$608,682163%
2006$2,4071.7%$231,0542%
 Yup, last sold 08/09/2006 for $1,410,000 and assessed at that time $608,682.  This needs a little explanation for the non-California reader.  In CA you can transfer a tax basis if you meet certain conditions.  Prop 60 allowed seniors to transfer their old Prop 13 tax basis to a new property provided the new property was of a lesser price.  No trading up but only cashing out.  So the tax history isn't a reflection of transactions in this case.  Lucky we have the transaction history of $1,410,000.

What is the asking price? 

$1,399,000.   We aren't going to give it away.  










10yr Rates Spain & Germany minus US

Here's the Graph.

I didn't fluff the data to make my point blatanly obvious.  you are all too smart for that.  Just like you are smart enough to break out your crayons and complete the next 5 years of data. 

Saturday, November 30, 2013

Black Friday Evolution

Time to understand the media's greatest lie.  Preliminary estimates.  

Here's the exercise.  Use a search engine and look for news "black friday results" and sort by most recent.  This is my google result .  Of course this will change over time but as of mid day Saturday the list looks like the Clinton Press Corps faced with a scandal.  Early reports include Walmart and Target releasing results on Friday.  

A mere 24 hours later an the reports are "tepid." 


I've been out 3-4 times.  I've never seen it so "tepid."  I blame the shutdown.  ;) 

Friday, November 29, 2013

EU Unemployment

Throwaway culture': Euro area youth unemployment soars amid 3-year overall low

Euro zone unemployment fell for the first time in three years in October to 12.1 percent, but youth unemployment hits another record-high, with nearly 6 million people between 18 and 25 with no work.
A total of 19.3 million people across the euro area were jobless in October, with the unemployment rate going slightly down to 12.1 percent from September's 12.2 percent, the European Union statistics office said in preliminary data Friday. 
Unemployment for the 28-nation euro zone stands at 10.9 percent, unchanged from September, with 26.654 million people out of work.

-----

You watch.  The Happitalkers™  and lame street media will latch onto the 12.2% to 12.1% "decline."  Same thing happened here.  People are not being employed they are being thrown off the back of the bus. 

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Locarno Update

Readers, yes both of you, probably remember from last April:

Fourteen Year Old Tease

5471 Lorcano 92397

Back then it was noted there were strange things going on with asking price.  Good news.  It sold.  Bad news.  It sold for only $260,000. 

Despite the Government Shutdown...

Commerce Department Durable Goods report.

Capital Goods
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in October
decreased $3.2 billion or 3.9 percent to $77.9 billion.
Shipments increased slightly to $74.2 billion. Unfilled
orders increased $3.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $620.8
billion. Inventories increased $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent
to $174.2 billion. 
 
Defense new orders for capital goods in October
decreased $1.7 billion or 16.3 percent to $8.7 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 2.4 percent to $9.8
billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.0 billion or 0.6
percent to $167.1 billion. Inventories decreased slightly 
or 0.2 percent to $23.0 billion. 

 -----

It actually does seem that the shutdown did affect capital purchases.  Sadly the lesson of the Federal government being so large it endangers the economy is lost on most. 

Initial Clams 27 Nov '13

As our good friend Karma Police over on Hoocoodanode so kindly reminded the commentariat this morning you have to come here to get the real analysis of the weekly initial unemployment claims data.  Good thing too because the week is a particularly suspicious report.  

From the report:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 363,053 in the week ending November 23, an increase of 37,229 from the previous week. There were 358,869 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent during the week ending November 16, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,684,088, an increase of 143,750 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.2 percent and the volume was 2,835,628.
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending November 9 was 3,913,729, an increase of 38,437 from the previous week. There were 5,183,962 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2012.

 Okay.  363,053 resulted in a seasonally adjustment of -47,000 week over week. 

What about last year?  358,869 resulted in a seasonally adjustment of +31,000.

Enough said.  

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

The Road to HELOC is Not Paid with Good Intentions

From Business Insider:

(Reuters) - U.S. borrowers are increasingly missing payments on home equity lines of credit they took out during the housing bubble, a trend that could deal another blow to the country's biggest banks.

The loans are a problem now because an increasing number are hitting their 10-year anniversary, at which point borrowers usually must start paying down the principal on the loans as well as the interest they had been paying all along.

More than $221 billion of these loans at the largest banks will hit this mark over the next four years, about 40 percent of the home equity lines of credit now outstanding.

-----

Eh, what could happen?  Again. 



My Cancellation dot com

http://mycancellation.com/
Mycancellation is a great resource for countering the know nothings who think ACA is no big deal for most already insured Americans. Click the big red button to go there. 

Monday, November 25, 2013

Choo-Choo No-No





The CAHSR Authority has been dealt what is likely a fatal blow today.  Good. 
Judge blocks bond sale for high-speed rail project


Nov 25 (Reuters) - A California judge on Monday ruled against the state's plan to issue more than $8 billion in bonds to build a planned high-speed train system and rescinded the project's funding plan, estimated at $68 billion dollars.
...
"In this case, the Court can find no evidence in the record of proceedings submitted by plaintiffs that supports a determination that it was necessary or desirable to authorize the issuance of more than eight billion dollars in bonds under Proposition 1A as of March 18, 2013," he said in the ruling.

-----

CAHSR has always been such a bad idea as designed that this is actually a good thing but the supporters won't ever see that. 

I would be all for a 220mph LA to SF system operational 2016-17 as was marketed in 2008.  I still am.  And there is the problem.  The proponents lie. 

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Get Your Excuses Ready

The impending holiday retail season bust has many legitimate reasons for falling short but it never hurts to have exogenous rationalizations handy.  From marketwatch we get this weather excuse:

Cold turkey? Forecast calls for chilliest Thanksgiving in nearly 60 years

  At least one meteorologist is predicting the coldest Thanksgiving week since the 1950s, driving a surge in energy demand and (attention shoppers!) perhaps even an early snowfall.

The cold snap would cover most of the eastern United States, led by a cold front sweeping down from Canada and a “double shot” of arctic air reinforcing the first front, said MDA Weather Services, a weather risk and commodities weather support company.
In the Midwest, temperatures will drop this weekend and moderate only slightly as the week wears on. Readings at least 10 degrees below normal are likely lasting through Thanksgiving Day, MDA said.
“Combined, the broad nature of the cold is set to produce the coldest Thanksgiving week since the 1950s...

-----

 These turkeys deserve an award. 

Friday, November 22, 2013

DataQuick Las Vegas





DQNews Nov 22 2013:


There are two main reasons for the sharp annual gains in the median. First, prices have risen as stronger housing demand, fueled in large part by low mortgage rates, has met a relatively low supply of homes for sale. Second, the median has been tugged up by changes in market mix: Fewer homes re-selling now are low-cost distressed properties, while more are mid- to high-end move-up homes. 

 The data are interesting for several reasons.  Above DQ mentions interest rates and supply without going into why supply is low.  What I find interesting is the "mix" argument.  What if there really isn't a "move up" client but merely the purchase to rent contingent filling out their portfolio after having distorted the low end beyond profitability? 


Thursday, November 21, 2013

Science in 61 Seconds



Now you know why economics is not a science. 

Re-listed the New Pending

One of the early signs of the first lobe of the credit/monetary seizure back in 2006 was the failure to close real estate deals.  At the time it was a perfect storm; lack of qualified buyers, standards that couldn't get any lower, velocity of money, you all know the litany.  That's why when I start seeing routine sales cancelled and the property getting relisted I pay attention.

There are two types so it is important to be careful.  The first type is bank greed in an era of lax regulation.  Used to be the banks needed to get off the books any repossessed physical asset before the close of quarter.  That rule is dead and buried so these days a "short sale" like linked below is not a short sale but a bank trolling for BPOs (Best Price Opinions) before settling on a real price.

1471 IRENE St, Wrightwood, CA 92397
$166,000 3Beds 2Baths  1,428 Sq. Ft. $116 / Sq. Ft.

Nota bene.  Never trust square footage or price per square foot. 

$166k would cash flow for a private investor.  Certainly fully price but like I said, it cash flows.  Problem being, the $166,000 is not a price, it is an opening bid by a bank with negative incentive to deal. 

These distractions are just part of the new real estate scene. 

Then there are the transactions worth following.  These are the on market for days or weeks with no condition issues and market pricing.  When those start relisitng pay attention. 

646 MOUNTAIN VIEW Ave, Wrightwood, CA 92397
$169,900 1Beds  1Baths  850 Sq. Ft. $200 / Sq. Ft.





Come to the mountains.  See into the future. 

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Younger Dryas (Warning Climate Denial)

[Click for larger graphic] 
The last dozen pixels on the right hand size is the current out of control climate. 

Tech Minute

There's a new criminal in town.  The cryptolocker.

Here's a basic article with a vendor frosting of self serving sugar:

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2013/111913-cryptolocker-the-evolution-of-276129.html?source=NWWNLE_nlt_special_alert_2013-11-20

-----

The easiest thing is a Windows rollback provided you have a decent setpoint. 

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Dismal Xmas Season

First off. "Xmas." Horrid. It is the Christmas Season. At worst the Holiday Season. Good, that's out of the way. We aren't talking about anything but raw marketing and consumerism.

Holiday Spending Seen Rising 11 Percent, Accenture Estimates - 07 Oct 2013 02:58 PM U.S. consumers will spend 11 percent more this holiday season, starting with a jump in shoppers on the day after Thanksgiving, while looking for discounts in stores and online, according to a study by consulting firm Accenture Plc. During the seasonal crunch, U.S. shoppers are forecast to spend an average of $646 on gifts, compared with $582 they planned to spend on average last year, according to a study released by Dublin-based Accenture. Of those surveyed, 20 percent said they planned to spend more than last year while 62 percent said they will spend the same.
-----
Holiday Spending Plans Plummet, Signaling Dismal Retail Season - Nov. 19, 2008 ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER Americans plan to cut back drastically on holiday spending this year, a dismal prospect for retailers in their most critical season. Fifty-one percent in this ABC News poll say they'll spend less this year than last on holiday gifts, matching the sharpest consumer retreat in polls dating back 23 years -- last seen ahead of the dreadful Christmas retail performance just after the 1990-91 recession. More, 68 percent, say they'll wait for sales before buying holiday items, even if that means missing out on things they really want -- 26 points higher than in a 1990 poll. And Americans on average say they'll spend $716 on holiday gifts, the least in polls since 1989 and more than 40 percent below its level three years ago.
-----
Gallup: Holiday spending to dive Paul Ausick, 24/7 Wall St. 12 p.m. EST November 17, 2013 There's hope 2013 will be like last year, when consumers spent more than they planned. In 2012, consumers spent an average of $786 on holiday gifts, but if the latest poll from Gallup is correct they'll be sitting on the wallets this year. Americans say they plan to spend an average of just $704 on holiday giving in 2013. Of course, American consumers last year said they planned to spend $770 and ended up spending more. Retailers can only hope that the pattern repeats itself this year. When asked to compare planned spending for this year with last year, 57% of those surveyed said they planned to spend about the same amount as last year, while 26% said they planned to spend less and 15% said they planned to spend more.
-----
Somebody is going to be correct. The truth is freaking easy. There are 6 fewer days this season including one entire less weekend.

Reactivating the Blog

Looks like another economic inflection point is forming and unfortunately the blogs I had expected to follow events are remiss. Worse the blogs I expected to be able to go to This blog is a bit of work but with no alternatives I'm up for it. More on why HCN is broken and more important why we need to keep blogging but for now leave suggestions in the comments. Next: Ghosts of Xmas Past.

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Bulk Flip

1609 Betty 92397 has an interesting history. 
Sep 04, 2013
Price Changed
$160,000

Aug 13, 2013
Listed (Active)
$143,000

Oct 07, 2009
Sold (Public Records)
This was part of a

Multi-Property Sale

$130,000


Dec 09, 2004
Sold (Public Records)
This was part of a

Multi-Property Sale

$190,000


Oct 03, 2002
Sold (Public Records)
$110,000

Oct 27, 1994
Sold (Public Records)
This was part of a

Multi-Property Sale

$55,000
This is not a normal or approaching normal market. 

Monday, September 02, 2013

St Louis Fed Graph

You can ply with it with this link. GDP v M2V*GDP It looks to me like multipliers are weakening as FedStim continues.

Sunday, September 01, 2013

Hollywood Bowl

The season is over for us but the last concert was John Williams and the music of Hollywood. The first half was a Henry Mancini tribute. Julie Andrews narrated. Nice, funny, good laughs and moments. The seconf half was all big music from Williams. There was this awesome montage of flying sequences from "Wings" (1927) to "Planes" (2013). Anyway, then the Star Wars music. Here's the crowd:
Not sure what it says about us as a society.

Saturday, August 03, 2013

Vacation Pics 2

By request: And some shots from the Harry P Leu Botanical Gardens:

Vacation Pics 1

Getting caught up and resuming regular blogging. First a few nature pics of Florida.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Central Florida Real Estate

Description: Construction and service economy. No manufacturing. No natural resources. No strategic location. We went to a timeshare presentation. More on that later. Maybe. The location a few miles from the Disney complexes. The first of supposedly seven resort towers got built and then 2006 happened. There's an eight lane bridge that never opened. A weathered sign selling 150 acres. A single entrance that passes two traffic circles that go nowhere but to the one structure. There are two sources of revenue. Selling services to tourists and fees. Toll roads. Resort surcharges. Handling fees. If aviation fuel and gasoline ever get too expensive this place will implode again. Despite this I suspect the area is getting ready to overheat again.

Monday, July 22, 2013

Change the World 3v at a time

Chemists Seek to Desalt the World To achieve desalination, the researchers apply a small voltage (3.0 volts) to a plastic chip filled with seawater. The chip contains a microchannel with two branches. At the junction of the channel an embedded electrode neutralizes some of the chloride ions in seawater to create an “ion depletion zone” that increases the local electric field compared with the rest of the channel. This change in the electric field is sufficient to redirect salts into one branch, allowing desalinated water to pass through the other branch. Inexpensive fresh water from seawater is literally changes the world. Pound sand Malthus.

Systemic Skim

Goldman Sachs is at it again. From the NYT: A Shuffle of Aluminum Using special exemptions granted by the Federal Reserve Bank and relaxed regulations approved by Congress, the banks have bought huge swaths of infrastructure used to store commodities and deliver them to consumers — from pipelines and refineries in Oklahoma, Louisiana and Texas; to fleets of more than 100 double-hulled oil tankers at sea around the globe; to companies that control operations at major ports like Oakland, Calif., and Seattle. In the case of aluminum, Goldman bought Metro International Trade Services, one of the country’s biggest storers of the metal. More than a quarter of the supply of aluminum available on the market is kept in the company’s Detroit-area warehouses. ----- Vertical integration in the financial sector is too dangerous to exist.

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Metals squeeze

Just an overnight thread.  Noticing silver and gold bumping up.



Not like it hasn't happened before.  Time Magazine

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Decoding Progressivism

 

11 Phrases Progressives Use to Obscure Their Agendas

(1). Big Business: (Also referred to as: Corporate America; Multinationals; Corporate Interests) When we use any of these words, we automatically sound pie-in-the-sky liberal. People think, “what’s wrong with that?” After all, they’d like their own businesses to get “big” and have no negative associations with the words “corporate” or “multinational” — which actually sound kind of exciting and worldly. Instead, try: Unelected Government. This puts them in their proper context as unelected entities with unprecedented powers, whose actions have immense impact on our lives, and which we are powerless to hold accountable.
(2). Entitlements: I keep hearing reporters from National Public Radio and other liberal news outlets use the word “entitlements” and it makes me froth at the mouth. They’re not “entitlements” — which sounds like something a bunch of spoiled, lazy, undeserving people irrationally think they should get for nothing. Instead, try: Earned Benefits. This term not only sounds better for the progressive cause, it’s also more accurate. Programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Unemployment are all forms of insurance that we pay into all of our working lives — via a percentage of our income — and then collect from when the time comes.
(3). Free Market Capitalism: (Also referred to as: Capitalism, Free Markets, and Supply-Side Economics) Like “Fascism” and “Communism,” “Free Market Capitalism” is a 20th-century utopian ideal that has amply been proven an unworkable failure, and damaging to society. Instead, try: Socialized Risk, Privatized Profits. This best describes the dramatically failed experiment in unfettered capitalism, as practiced in the late 20th century and early aughts.
(4). Government Spending: (Also referred to as: Taxes, Burden, and Inconvenient) Conservatives talk about “government spending” like it’s this awful thing, but the fact is, communities across America benefit from U.S. tax dollars, especially supposedly anti-government red states, which receive way more federal tax money than they contribute.  Instead, try: Investing in America. Because, that’s what our federal tax dollars do. They invest in education and infrastructure that wouldn’t prove profitable for businesses, but which still benefit society in the long-run.
(5). Gun Control: Yikes! That sounds like you want to control people, and all those “freedom loving” folks who want to bully gays and people of color into staying in their place will use that word against you. Instead, try: Gun Safety. It sounds so nice, non-coercive, and reasonable … plus, it’s true. Most of us aren’t against guns, we just want them used safely.
(6). Illegal Aliens: It’s easy to support draconian laws against people we refer to by such a scary and impersonal term as “illegal aliens.” It’s way harder to act against our neighbors, friends, the families of our children’s classmates, or the nice lady who sells those plump, fragrant tamales on the corner. Plus … are they really “illegal?” If
Big Business… Ooops … I mean “Unelected Government” … didn’t want them here — for their easily-exploited, low-cost, skilled labor (yes, our neighbors from south of the border do offer specialized skills for which U.S. agribusiness refuses to fairly compensate) — they’d be gone. Instead, try: Undocumented Residents. Why not? They already do much of what we officially-recognized U.S. citizens do, plus they’re having more kids than Anglos are. Seems like immigration provides an ideal way for us to avoid the demographics crisis hitting Western Europe and Japan.
(7). Pro-Life: Ugh. They are NOT pro-life. Once a child takes its first breath, these supposed conservative “pro-lifers” couldn’t care less about the quality of life for the child or mother. Let’s call them by their true name for once. Instead, try: Anti-Choice. Because, that’s what they really are about. They don’t care about “life.” They only seek to deny choices to women. Not just the choice of whether or not to have a child, but whether a woman can — like a man — embrace her full sexuality without having to worry about pregnancy, and whether she can make related choices about her body, her career, and when to have children, as men always have.
(8). Right-To-Work: Who came up with the phrase “right-to-work” ANYway? It’s total B.S. and doesn’t give you the right to do anything, unless you want to reject unions and earn less money than you would in a pro-union shop. In “right-to-work” states, non-union workers in union shops can decline paying union dues. Which sounds fair, but is not, because union shops pay better wages to their employees, and hence should receive dues accordingly. Instead, try: Anti-Union: It’s far more accurate, and — as unions increasingly gain favor — will make conservatives look bad. Because “right-to-work” really does mean: Right to choose amongst sucky wages and benefits packages.  Several readers have also suggested: Right-To-Fire (without just cause).
(9). The Environment: When people talk about “the environment,” they often sound annoyingly self-righteous, as if lecturing people with dubious hygiene practices. Unfortunately, you can’t count on people to make environmentally friendly choices — especially when people are struggling financially and these choices cost significantly more. Instead, try: Shared Resources. That makes way more sense. We may not care about some  factory dumping crap into the ocean, but we dang-well care about our neighbors up the river not properly maintaining their septic tank.
(10). Welfare: When conservatives talk about “welfare,” they make it sound like this pit people wallow in forever, rather than a source of help that’s available when we need it – and that we pay for through our taxes. The majority of us need help at one time or another. Instead, try: Social Safety Net: When people think of a safety net, they’re more likely to think of a protection of last-resort, and one that they can instantly bounce out of like circus acrobats. And if we continue to grow the middle class — instead of cutting taxes for the rich and allowing companies to pay sub-living wages — perhaps the latter will be true again.
Special bonus 11th Phrase:
(11). Homophobic: People who oppose equal rights for gays, lesbians, and gender atypical individuals are not “afraid,” as the “phobic” suffix implies. They are mean, bigoted @ssholes. Instead, try: Anti-Gay.


Similar Historic Observation:


“It is one of the saddest spectacles of our time to see a great democratic movement support a policy which must lead to the destruction of democracy and which meanwhile can benefit only a minority of the masses who support it. Yet it is this support from the Left of the tendencies toward monopoly which make them so irresistible and the prospects of the future so dark.”
Friedrich A. von Hayek, The Road to Serfdom

Bountiful Harvest

The Promise:

The Reality:
Any resemblance to our economy is purely deliberate. 

These were actually the result of having too many seeds sprout and having half a flat of seedlings stay in the tray.  Bonsai tomato plants. 

MBS Fed holdings vs Commercial Holdings

Since the end of the recession.  Presented without comment.


Friday, July 19, 2013

Sobering Time Lapse

Radioactive Girl from Devient Art. 

Youtube is getting increasingly less useful and exponentially more annoying. For all the evil creeping in via google monetization schemes there are still gems in the manure pile.

A Time-Lapse Map of Every Nuclear Explosion Since 1945 One reason the globe goes quieter towards the end is because the US knows pretty much everything that can be uncovered by live testing and has switched to computer simulations. I suspect the methods have been "adopted" by the Russians and Chinese as well. 

And for you Sci-Fi fans, and there are a lot here, a different Apocalypse. Radioactive Sci-Fi mash up. Sadly I got at least 80% of the video clips the first time through.

Suggestions for the blog

Having seen what happens to blogs that start "mailing it in" I am looking for suggestions to increase the value of Exurban Nation.  

I'd still like to keep my individual real estate observations focused on Ventura County and the Wrightwood /high desert area of San Bernardino.  Lots of rich data to mine there alone but I know other places are just as interesting.  Preferable guest posts could share them.  

One reason I let the blog slide was the same reason I started it in the first place.  There were stories not being told so I told them here.  Then the blogosphere exploded in housing/econ forums.  Now those places are victims of unfettered abuse.  Too bad, it happens.  Some 76,000 comments later I doubt I've deleted a dozen so it can work.  A little restraint and a little self policing is ll it will require.  

This will be a "top post" for a few days to solicit comments. 

Red Team v Blue Team on Inflation

With the Democrats you get inflation. Higher prices for the same things and higher taxes and higher debt. With the Republicans you get inflation. The same prices for inferior things and higher taxes and higher debt. With bipartisanship you get all of the above. With gridlock you get no fiscal policy direction at al and place yourself at the mercy of monetary policy. See illustration above.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Tabula Rasa

Microsoft Tablet fail $900m and counting My comment? Zune^2

Why Jobless Claims Declined this Week

Ford Motor Co (F). said it will idle most of its North American assembly plants for one week this summer instead of two, to increase output. Three of Chrysler Group LLC’s assembly plants and all except one of its engine, transmission and stamping factories will skip a summer shutdown this year. Since its 2009 bankruptcy, General Motors Co. hasn’t had a formal summer shutdown, Mark Reuss, president of the company’s North American operations, told reporters in May. ----- The "decline" was nothing but an anomaly due to the BLS formula that assumes auto plant shutdowns in the summer. So. What do the unadjusted numbers say? BLS release.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 408,710 in the week ending July 13, an increase of 25,350 from the previous week. There were 455,260 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent during the week ending July 6, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,144,838, an increase of 333,812 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,811,026. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6 percent and the volume was 3,360,067. The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending June 29 was 4,519,501, a decrease of 1,903 from the previous week. There were 5,753,820 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2012.
The actual bad numbers won't come out until they won't matter. Nota Bene: Running a blog is work. I've picked up the job again with sadness at the passing of hoocoodanode as a viable platform.

Look Who's Smiling Now

It is a well known issue for both companies and municipalities that more fail in the recovery than in the recession. Today Det"riot" declared bankruptcy. $20b in liabilities and 700,000 residents of which easily half are not taxable by any stretch. Whitney wasn't even early. What happened was her warning caused a lot of shuffling of deck chairs to forestall the inevitable. Second the "recovery" took much much longer than she could have predicted. So. Is this it? Probably not. The baby bust is now only two years away from crushing school districts across the nation. Watch them follow this closely. Both Detroit and school districts have much the same problems. Liberal control and outsized employee benefits.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Ocean View... If you are an Eagle maybe

Today's winner in the"Any closet is a walk-in closet if you try hard enough" contest is: 641 Ocean View, Camarillo Here's what the agent says oh so carefully: "Located on a hilltop overlooking the city of camarillo with views all the way to the ocean." Here's the aerial picture... Zooming out... and Zooming again:

So there you have it. Over the City, past the outlet mall, beyond the airport, across the farm fields just on the other side of the naval air station there it is... the ocean.

Saturday, June 08, 2013

Unbridled Optimism

Here's someone who wants to set the price. 3420 Schooner Walk Price: $550,000 Bedrooms 4 Bathrooms 2 Size 1,842 sqft Lot Size 6,098 sqft Built in 1976 Neighborhood: Sea View Estates Here's his neighbors: 3711 Pier Walk 0.26 mi $395,000 03/05/13 4 2 1,842 3604 Monte Carlo Dr 0.27 mi $412,000 11/06/12 4 2 1,668 3744 Pier Walk 0.27 mi $350,000 11/16/12 4 2 1,863 See the problem?