Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Home Price Increases 2014

Who doesn't love DQNews?  
  The question of this post is where are house prices headed next year.  Sometimes it is impossible like when there are inflection points.  Sometimes it is difficult like when trends are so strong as to develop inertia or as I call it; "make their own weather."  Mostly it is dumb extrapolation which is what keeps the lame stream media interested because that is the limit of their perceptions.  When you couldn't get into a math or sciences program and business degrees were too hard there was always "Communications" or whatever they call it these days.  Here is what DQNews has charted for rolling price increases.  Keep in mind these are house prices not home prices.  That's an important distinction. 

See anything?  Yup.  You (we?) missed the boat.  The other thing?  Yup.  Interest rates matter. 

So, 2014.  Flat.  The wild cards being inflation and employment.  Inflation looks to be deflation.  Just look at commodities.  And that includes PMs.  Weird that glod and silber are base metals in a deflationary environment eh?  Employment looks to be so buffered by oversupply that wages won't rise for the 80%. 

What if interest rates fall again in accord with long and really long term trends?  That depends upon the lenders being willing to follow with lower mortgage rates.  These are like gasoline prices at the pump.  Quick to rise in response to input shocks, slow to fall. 

May you live in interesting times. 

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